Skip to comments.The Handling of the Economic Crisis May Lead to Civil Unrest
Posted on 06/09/2011 10:09:15 PM PDT by Kartographer
Reality is beginning to break through. Gas and grocery prices are on the rise, home values are down, and vast majorities think the country is on the wrong track. The result is sadness and frustration, but also an inchoate rage more profound than the sign-waving political fury documented during the elections last fall.
-SNIP- Director of National Intelligence Dennis C. Blair said:
"The global economic crisis ... already looms as the most serious one in decades, if not in centuries ... Economic crises increase the risk of regime-threatening instability if they are prolonged for a one- or two-year period," said Blair. "And instability can loosen the fragile hold that many developing countries have on law and order, which can spill out in dangerous ways into the international community."***
"Statistical modeling shows that economic crises increase the risk of regime-threatening instability if they persist over a one-to-two-year period."***
The crisis has been ongoing for over a year, and economists are divided over whether and when we could hit bottom. Some even fear that the recession could further deepen and reach the level of the Great Depression. Of course, all of us recall the dramatic political consequences wrought by the economic turmoil of the 1920s and 1930s in Europe, the instability, and high levels of violent extremism.
Blair made it clear that - while unrest was currently only happening in Europe - he was worried this could happen within the United States.
(Excerpt) Read more at zerohedge.com ...
If you havent already its time to prepare. You needed to be stocking up on food guns, ammo, basic household supplies like soap, papergoods, cleaning supplies, good sturdy clothes including extra socks, underwear and extra shoes and boots, a extra couple changes of oil and filters for your car, tools, things you buy everyday start buying two and put one up.
I think that we are at the very least in for a collapse much like that of Argentinas ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7yerKMQc7-w&feature=grec_index), but as a armed society with a very large entitlement minded population our collapse will be much more violent and I see many many small business wiped out by flash mob looting, and large scale violence (look at what happened just this past Memorial Day weekend)and then there is this is going on in Chicago:Emanuel said he spoke with McCarthy over the weekend and again this morning about the situation. The mayor said the citys reputation as a safe place to work and shop downtown is being endangered by the thuggery. Many of the attacks are happening near the biggest tourist and shopping attractions in the city.
But, CBS 2s Jim Williams reports, the problem of mob attacks downtown is much bigger than the weekend beatings, according to beat cops who wanted to remain anonymous.
And it’s not just Chicago most major big ‘Blue’ cities are increasingly reporting such flash mobs and gang muggings.
I see what I call Pocket Pogroms taking place in many big Blue cities and if you arent a 0bamamites yute its going to get Reginald Denny bad for you very quickly.
For those who havent prepared and would like to start or for those that have and are just interested you may download my Preparedness Manual at:
As the LDS say When the emergency is upon us the time for preparedness has past.
Or as the bible says: A prudent man sees danger and takes refuge, but the simple keep going and suffer for it.
NIV Proverbs 22:3
If the storm includes some rain, I might just welcome it. hee hee hee
Some local analysis indicated this is the worst dry year here since 1895.
The list, ping
Let me know if you would like to be on or off the ping list
A fool and his money are soon parted.
As long as the insurrection stays to the Blue welfare cities, this may be a blessing in disguise.
I saw the LA riots with my own eyes. It’s not a pretty sight. Glad I don’t live there anymore. But theft is on the rise and the Feds are unloading 30,000 prisoners into county facilities, who in turn, will release them upon the public because of lack of govt. funds. My home was robbed last month and I witnessed a flash robbery at a local shopping mall. Lawlessness is rampant. Sign of the times.
I don’t want to be within 100 miles of LA County when the welfare/food stamps/Section 8 checks stop coming.
The peeps are gonna cut out the government middleman and go straight to source for their money.
“Reality is beginning to break through. Gas and grocery prices are on the rise, home values are down, and vast majorities think the country is on the wrong track. The result is sadness and frustration, but also an inchoate rage more profound than the sign-waving political fury documented during the elections last fall.”
Doesn’t this assume the states have no vested interest in stability within their borders and that they’re just going to leave it up to FedGov to manage?
I wouldn’t be surprised, if things continue to spiral downward, if states start telling the Federal Government to get its act together and in the meantime they’re going to ensure that their states and citizens thrive.
Sorry ‘bout that three-horned titmouse, OSHA regulation #837,829,717, etc. but yah, we’re going to need to build refineries, grow food, access our natural resources and build some manufacturing plants, etc. here for a while. Get back to us when you can manage a cafeteria.
Titmouse Eureka (TE). Thanks for bringing this to my attention, Nickname. It is exactly right and just that we save ourselves by returning to Federalism, perhaps even to the Colonial Period.
The big city liberals might get to reap what they’ve been sowing.
We’re gonna’ need more lamp post.
There is also a lot of fear.
Many people have worked their entire lives and rolled peacefully along, buying a house, raising a family, going to Little League games... and now they worry hard about rumors that their companies may be laying people off again. With a mortgage, bills, and kids, what will they do?
Thousands upon thousands of people are already experiencing this nightmare, and I suspect things are going to get a lot worse before they get better.
Ironically, the coming "civil unrest" we keep hearing about will be generated not by these poor laid-off working stiffs, but rather by the Democrat "free-shit armies" that occupy the nation's parasite nests ("cities"). Fires and looting will fill our TV screens for years.
“home values are down”
Just imagine when they drop another 50%+ to reflect historical values (IOW “what they’re actually WORTH”). The price is still in a bubble, and a lot of people were duped into buying when housing was nearly double what people could, in reality, actually pay. Unfortunately the con of a home rising in price more than inflation (actually, home values should stay the same or fall with age, but I digress), and being an investment, was a fool’s notion, and sadly tens of millions were sucked into the game, many of whom are underwater and defaulting by the millions. That’s not a recipe for happiness.
That aside, there are a whole lot of things that need fixing, and there’s a long way down before people hit rock bottom. Then they finally start to wake up.
Personally, the continued downward spiral of home prices makes my stomach churn.
We built prior to the “boom” with the intention of staying put and we didn’t play games. Now our house needs to go on the market because we have to relocate to another state.
I’ve heard the values have already fallen to 2002 levels so if prices continue to plunge... I don’t know, I don’t even want to think about it. “It is what it is.”
Sounds like a guy who fantasizes about martial law.
Oh, hey: "statistical modeling" got us here, Einstein.
You may want to rent out the home instead of selling. That way you get a tidy sum each month. There are realtors that will do the dirty work of finding a renter, collecting the rent, and contacting the necessary repairmen... for a nominal fee each month.
Have you taken that route before?
I’ve seen what some renters have done to properties and would hate to be left with a huge repair bill.
You Mean you are Not happy with the Hopey Changey? You are in the Minority dont you know,70% of the American People still Love Obama
I’d be delighted if there were a few real men “handling” it.
This pack of metrosexual eunuchs trying to run an organization as big as the USA is in so far over their heads that the only expected can be whats “unexpected” to these child adults.
Well, as I previously reported, about two months ago, some guy in Washington state was arrested and tried.
What did he do?
He sent emails to Gregoire threatening her life.
Why did he do it?
He had gotten a notice saying they were going to cut his welfare benefits.
If (when) the SHTF, it’s not gonna be J6P who lives in Podunk, Montana and has a .22 and a 12G and a bloodhound who causes the problems.
It’s gonna be the welfare folks... the Public employees (just like we saw in Wisconsin)... the food stamp groups.
I don’t want to see things go to hell in a handbasket. But I’m damn tired of all the negativity focused on the conservatives of the country. The conservatives, in general, focus more on being self sufficient. They try to focus on responsible behavior and learning from mistakes.
Not running to the government if they get a flat tire or whatever...
It may be time to review the words of Patrick Henry:
There is no longer any room for hope. If we wish to be free--if we mean to preserve inviolate those inestimable privileges for which we have been so long contending--if we mean not basely to abandon the noble struggle in which we have been so long engaged, and which we have pledged ourselves never to abandon until the glorious object of our contest shall be obtained--we must fight! I repeat it, sir, we must fight! An appeal to arms and to the God of hosts is all that is left us!
They tell us, sir, that we are weak; unable to cope with so formidable an adversary. But when shall we be stronger? Will it be the next week, or the next year? Will it be when we are totally disarmed, and when a British guard shall be stationed in every house? Shall we gather strength but irresolution and inaction? Shall we acquire the means of effectual resistance by lying supinely on our backs and hugging the delusive phantom of hope, until our enemies shall have bound us hand and foot? Sir, we are not weak if we make a proper use of those means which the God of nature hath placed in our power.
The millions of people, armed in the holy cause of liberty, and in such a country as that which we possess, are invincible by any force which our enemy can send against us. Besides, sir, we shall not fight our battles alone. There is a just God who presides over the destinies of nations, and who will raise up friends to fight our battles for us. The battle, sir, is not to the strong alone; it is to the vigilant, the active, the brave. Besides, sir, we have no election. If we were base enough to desire it, it is now too late to retire from the contest. There is no retreat but in submission and slavery! Our chains are forged! Their clanking may be heard on the plains of Boston! The war is inevitable--and let it come! I repeat it, sir, let it come.
It is in vain, sir, to extentuate the matter. Gentlemen may cry, Peace, Peace--but there is no peace. The war is actually begun! The next gale that sweeps from the north will bring to our ears the clash of resounding arms! Our brethren are already in the field! Why stand we here idle? What is it that gentlemen wish? What would they have? Is life so dear, or peace so sweet, as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery? Forbid it, Almighty God! I know not what course others may take; but as for me, give me liberty or give me death!
It depends on the location. If you are allowed to screen potential renters, then you should be able to weed out the worst.
Personally, I’ve found the best renters are military. You know they have a job and get paid regularly... and if they don’t pay you, you can go to their unit about it. And then they WILL pay you the money they owe. Same goes for any damages to the apartment.
That said, they will (sometimes) have to move at a moments notice due to PCS orders. And you’ll have to let them out of the rest of the lease without charge.
He was in a rage.
"F***ing Obama!", this and that. He was truly pissed off at Obama and the Democrat Party for what they've done to the economy and the society. He's turning Conservative and boy is he pissed.
A hard rain may be coming.
He may be waking up.I would hope so. But the proof of the pudding will be the Wednesday after the first Tuesday in November 2012. We shall see.
Thx 4 the ping.
It won't. Be ready.
Ditto for Atlanta. When they can’t swipe that Peachcard any longer there’s going to be Hell to pay. If you live in the cities your life is going to be unpleasant and extremely dangerous. If you live in the burbs same problem.
A house is "worth" exactly what a buyer is willing to pay and a seller is willing to accept in an arm's length transaction (ie., neither party is under unusual duress). Housing prices are down - - and falling - - only because there is currently a significant oversupply of housing inventory resulting from high unemployment and underemployment which are themselves the result of a crappy - - and deteriorating - - economy.
I have no idea what you mean by that other nonsense.
I think that the flash mobs we are seeing all over Florida, Chicago and other big cities are the start of it. Once they gain more media attention and they will, more will follow.
It will brew and people will get very angry, follow th leader.
Here is the kicker, it is the liberals that are doing the flash mobs. They are falling right into what the community organizer wants. He will declare Martial law making sure he takes full advantage of the crisis.
Keep your powder dry and stay under the radar people. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
You can also use pedestrian over passes & tree limbs . Not advocating just saying.
Assuming there is an economic or infrastructure collapse heralding the action...
Week One there will be riots, looting and mayhem. But it will stay inside the ring.
Week Two food supplies will start running short. There will be a surge in mortality as the wounded begin to expire, and sanitary conditions will collapse as garbage and bodies pile up in the street. Small disorganized groups will begin to raid the inner suburbs by the weeks end.
Week Three the survivors will begin to get very, very hungry and thirsty. Living conditions will be atrocious and people will begin to flee. Warlords will have arisen, and organized bands of armed thugs will begin to openly raid outside the city.
And then, if it is not Time, it never will be.
There is a different mindset out here in the sticks. While everyone cooperates to get through trouble, much like the Tornado victims down south, the cities will melt down. I don't think the city dwellers will be smart enough to leave or have the means to. If any get out, the country bumpkins like me will be ready with AK's and Bushmasters to encourage their turning around. It's nice to have hillbillies and farmers for neighbors. A day without the sound of weapons fire is very rare.
“I have no idea what you mean by that other nonsense.”
Of course you don’t, or you wouldn’t call it nonsense.
“A house is “worth” exactly what a buyer is willing to pay and a seller is willing to accept in an arm’s length transaction (ie., neither party is under unusual duress).”
Yep, and the goverment subsidizing loans, and forcing mortgages on banks pushed prices higher by manipulating them. There was a 116 year study by a (Yale, I think), economist in 2006, studying housing prices from 1890, to that date. He factored our inflation in the price of housing. Standardizing the cost of a “normal” (Standard single family home), as $100K in 1890, he tracked the price of housing for over a century. The price of a house remained at a standardized $100k for nearly the entire 116 years.
There was a 30 year dip (to about $70K if translated to 2006 dollars), during the early 1900’s when the process of manufacturing a house was made more efficient. There was one spike in the 70’s and one in the 80’s returning back to the 100K standard afterward. Starting in the 1990’s, the curve shot up exponentially.
If you care to be educated on the matter, go look up the study. Robert J. Shiller is the economists name.
The old (My father, 67, was taught by his father, so it’s at least close to a century old) adage that a house should be worth about 2x one’s gross annual pay. In 2006, that would have been about 95k (close enough to the 100K benchmark for me). Anything more than about 2x one’s annual income is more than a person can afford, as shown by nearly a century and a quarter of data. The fact that people ignorant think a house is an “Investment” (Meaning it’s going to increase in “value”—they mean price— more than the value of their dollar) is misguided, and to be honest, stupid. Houseing prices remain stable or go down over time, not up. If they go up it’s because the dollar drops, or the market is manipulated. There are millions upon millions of houses inoversupply, and as people move back in, there will be more and more. And the value thankfully, will continue to plummet and come out of it’s bubble.
A house is meant to be a dwelling, not a monetary vehicle. I feel bad for those duped into the idea that they ould somehow “make money” (other than an equivalent rise due to inflation) on their home, just for buying it. Now they’ll learn that it was a silly notion.
P.S. I’ll excuse my own typos, I’m too busy to proofread at the moment.
1. Those who have not prepared and have no problems with looting will gather into armed, roving bands and will burn whatever they find to force out those who have prepared from their homes.
2. Those who have not prepared and DO have problems with looting will bug out and wind up on my door step looking for charity. I have no problem at all giving to those in need but it would seriously dent my stores when they keep coming and coming and coming.
It will be hard but best not to develop a reputation as an easy mark in order to avoid both scenarios.
I feel for you. I hope you are able to get out of your home as much as you put into it. I know these time are rough. A few years after college, one of my three roommates/landlord was in foreclosures. As a group, we’d move into one of the houses he bought in foreclosure, and sometimes I would live in houses 5,500 or so square ft. He would tell the stories sometimes, but he was never empathetic. He would buy them for about 55-60% of what people paid for them, (because he knew they’d drop in value in the next 3-4 years (that was BEFORE the 2008 crisis, by several years). Even then, we all knew the price was too high, and in a bubble.
He wanted me to work with him, but I opted not to. Seeing so many people lose out because they overextended had themselves, would have been too difficult for me to cope with (he was a bit of a callous guy). I met some of the people, including a family who got a divorce over finances (although that’s only ever a catalyst, not the cause). It’s sad, but there’s a long way to go. There’s no economic activity to support a housing market in the range it’s been. It was like giving an 18 year old a credit card (the gov. forcing banks to give mortages). The 18 year old thinks they’re rich, and that the price is only a number. It’s only when they have to pay it off that they realize there’s a number of man hours of work attached to that price.
As a side note, I recently spoke with my father about a topic, and he was pricing everything in terms of hours of work. In my opinion, it’s a very smart thing to do, because A) It’s a lot easier to personally factor out a lot of garbage in “price.” and B) It shows you where your labor time is going directly. Just a handy bit of advice, on a bit of a tanget. Best of luck to you, I hope your situation goes weel for you, hang in there.
I’m not so sure I can buy into the roving bands, road warrior type scenario.
The reason is this: Which of the following gives you a longer life expectancy?
1) You don’t eat. But you live and breath until you starve to death or
2) You decide after two or three days without a Big Mac to bust into a few homes to see what you can pilfer
The answer, of course, is number 1.
The casualty/mortality rate of those who choose number 2 would be phenomenal. I doubt a man could break into 3 or 4 homes before he was turned into fertilizer. Or dog food. Hell, pooch gotta eat too!
I think the above applies if you are talking suburbs or rural areas.
If you are in a city of over 100,000 or so, yur toast...
That “study” sounds just like the ridiculous kind of exercise an academic would do. I do agree that prices spiked from the late ‘90s to the mid 2000s, but this was a direct result of that silly old “supply and demand” thing again. Yes, demand was artificially boosted through government and Wall Street corruption and that caused the relatively limited supply to command higher prices.
Prices will level off when the economy reaches some degree of stability, and supply and demand return to historical “normal” levels and cycles. At that point, houses will, as always, be “worth” exactly what a buyer is willing to pay and a seller is willing to accept in an arms length transaction. That’s Economics 101.
Thanks for the ping Dubya.
I was just reading the story below when you pinged. Something’s afoot, that is for sure.
“Forecast for U.S. cities: Confrontation, chaos?”
Me too. All it took was one small tipping point to push the thugs into the streets destroying everything in their path like locusts. They were even shooting at firefighters trying to put out the fires they had set ablaze in their own communities. The absolute worst of mankind and it isn't pleasant. People with entitlement mentalities are just this side of burning down their neighbor's house for the sake of creating choas and destruction to try to get their point across. They wait for a tipping point to unleash their savagery on the populace and glean some sort of sick sense of satisfaction out of it.
I pray I never witness that again.
There was a story on Drufge in the last few weeks about someone predicting chaos. Was it The Ragin Cajun?
They’re smelling a complete political loss coming in 2012. Think last Nov.10th’s on steroids. Scary to think of what might be up their sleaves to avert this. Remember they work for the 0 that helped bring/create the ‘Arab Spring’ “uprisings” (aka choas).
That is why it would be good to cultivate the image of the crazy gun nut psycho in the neighborhood. Might deter people from bothering you in the future. Plus it is cool to have that rep.
The unrest will be in the cities. The Commie Gov’t in these cities have made sure they are unarmed and defenseless. I don’t worry about them too much.
“At that point, houses will, as always, be worth exactly what a buyer is willing to pay and a seller is willing to accept in an arms length transaction.”
Exactly, which is probably (based on all known data) about half of what they cost now, and until recent history, goes down, not up over time. Those who understand this won’t be shocked by falling housing prices, as “unexpected” anymore than the “Unexpected” growing unemployment.
You are absolutely correct, and there is not a price something “should” be worth, intrinsically, just what it “should” be worth logically, based on known data. That’s all I was saying.
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