Skip to comments.The Economy Is Deteriorating at an Extremely Fast Rate
Posted on 06/16/2011 6:56:51 PM PDT by libertarian neocon
In case you missed it, today was the release of the Philly Fed Survey, which was another disastrous economic datapoint. Expectations were for a reading of +7, indicating minor growth, instead it came in at -7.7, indicating contraction.
Looking at this chart, the thing that pops out at me is how fast both the current activity and the future activity indices (expectations for activity in the next 6 months, which as you can see people always think things will either be the same or better) have been collapsing over the last 3 months. So I decided to look at the historical data, that goes back to 1968, to see when were the other times the 3 month change was this bad. The problem is, it's actually never been this bad. Below is the chart for the 3 month change in the Current Activity Index:
The last time the 3 month change even came close to the level of deterioration we've seen (51.1 points) was the 4th quarter of 1974 (50.5 points). This was right after Nixon resigned in disgrace and was a period when we were dealing with the ramifications of our loss in Vietnam, a stock market crash and an oil embargo. Also, we are currently dwarfing the deterioration we saw in the 4th quarter of 2008 (remember how we all felt the world was falling apart then?) which had a 3 month change of 34.7 points. What is even worse is that the current 3 month change is greater than the change we saw in this index between November 2007 and November 2008, which was a decline of 47.4 points. Now let's take a look at the same analysis with the Future Activity Index, which looks 6 months out:
Yup, that chart is correct, since 1968, we've never had a deterioration in this index that even came close to what we are seeing right now. There really is no way to sugar coat this, it is a disastrous reading. Also, the actual absolute reading itself is the lowest since the 4th quarter of 2008 when the world was coming apart at the seams.
It would be nice if we had a President who actually wanted to do something about the economy. After watching the GOP debate the other night, I came to the conclusion that I wouldn't mind if any of them were President. They would all do a better job than the current joker whose idea of stimulus is taking money from the productive members of society and giving it to unskilled labor so they can dig holes.
Borrowing money from China to spend in China isn’t really going to lead to any kind of “recovery”.
Anyone tell the US Congress that the Fuhrer is destroying the country? Anyone in Congress demanding an investigation into the Fuhrer?
Obama promised us a total transformation of America. This is merely the beginning.
The government is saying everything is OK, which implies that everything they are doing is on track.
Creating wealth, an old fashioned idea we need to return to.
Followed by slight good signs today. People really need to be careful and not get caught up in craziness. Balance.
Hope is changin indeed.
Yet the Dow showed a modest gain today.Why?
"You don't know that!!!" [/Libspeak]
I smell a whiff of confusion between the budget and trade deficits.
I think there’s a good chance that in Nov 012, people will refer to 2008 as the “good old days”.
Baraq is toast. At least if we can keep it a 2-way race.
ughh.. these charts mean absolutely nothing to me.
The American government is spending money in China? I don’t think so.
The screams will be heard coast to coast.
maybe they are all in on it.
Ireland already executed a partial pension seizure. 3.5 Bn Euros, I think.
The fed pulled strings... things happen. Disgusting.
The Stock Market doesn’t reflect the economy until it crashes. Jim Rogers
“The American government is spending money in China?”
No, but China makes a large percentage of our consumer goods, plus parts for those things we build here. Money flows from the US to China in multiple paths.
We do, though pay China to do a number of things, like clean up their coal plants, and “aid” for this and that.
Our government spends too much money. Problem. Period. Boycotting Wal-Mart will not do a damn thing to solve it. Get with the program.
Is there a country on this planet where the U.S. Government is not giving away our tax dollars?
And if these other countries can't get enough, like the Mexicans, they just enter the country illegally, by the millions, and take it in person.
I did not propose a WalMart boycott. I was commenting on borrowing money from China and then spending money there.
I’m sure that the amount we spend on Chinese nails, screws, nuts and bolts far exceeds WalMart expenditures.
I’m aware that we spend trillions that we don’t have, but thanks for refreshing me!
Where do you think the Chinese get the money to buy Treasuries with?
Trade deficits are not a problem in and of themselves, combine them with a profligate government and a foreign government willing and able to vacuum up the surplus and buy the profligate government's debt and you have a problem brewing...
Good Lord, and God help us . . . it appears that few see the real problem.
“Yet the Dow showed a modest gain today.Why?”
It’s a rigged casino.
Hi yankee, haha...he right...Communist China not problem..We good for yankee...China make yankee proud...Give good job to yankee...haha..You go shop...Get some poon tang doggie yum yums for you and doggie...haha...You be nice, we give you ride on new china aircraft carrier....hahah...Bye bye now..
So there’s a balk at the next step of monetization (”QE”) in an attempt to drive oil down and the dollar up to resume the global debt game. Meanwhile, those who depend on debt for incomes/contracts shout that the sky is falling.
Geithner warns Congress on need for debt boost, extends default deadline
Is China broke and consuming much less fuel, yet? ...doubtful.
CIA World Factbook
Country Comparison: Current Account Balance
And we’re not even into the “austerity” phase, yet.
Hey, dumbass . . . I’m telling you to focus on the real problem. That is not an admission that other problems don’t exist. God, you people are dense. CUT GOVERNMENT SPENDING NOW, instead of looking for excuses.
You seem angry yankee...haha...you calm down, get big tube china TV, a nice china couch...haha...pickup poon tang yum yums...they make yankee strong....and happy....bye bye now...
Aw, that one stung a little, didn’t it? Cry some more.
Are you aware that if we cut spending, we wouldn’t have to borrow so much?
You silly yankee...you get job at china mart...make you happy....Make you proud...Name you first boy, Dum Gai....haha
You are dealing with people who don't have a very firm grasp of the issue, I'm afraid.
Great Idea, now where would you start cutting. Give it your best shot.
Soon we call them China Bonds!
Damn, you are upset. Things at the Oriental Massage not go as planned? Did you ask for a “happy ending,” and they assumed you wanted a young boy?
(I'm not endorsing Pawlenty, by the way . . . but let's not let that stop my admirers from going into menopause).
haha...you stin ki pu....You buy some nice china soap...Make you happy...Make you proud...
Whatever you do, don’t ask anyone else on this thread for suggestions. They have nothing.
Was this inclusive of yourself, or do you have suggestions?
(I'll give you a hint though: I mentioned something about government spending--why don't you start there and read farther down the thread?)
Good thinking...Great strategy....Bet no one ever thought of that!
Of course, even under the Republicans, spending went through the roof....Sounds great....Good luck with that!
I’ll be somewhat more charitable and presume some temporary lapse in cognition on your part. You should get that checked out.
But in the meantime, return to the question asked of you, to which you apparently replied in some disembodied state, which then prompted my reply. Work on understanding the implications of that series of exchanges, and then get back to me.
Looks like I had to remind you. There are other intelligent people out there, though.
Any other questions? As I alluded to earlier, the density on this thread is approaching that of a collapsed star.
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