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The Economy Is Deteriorating at an Extremely Fast Rate
http://libertarian-neocon.blogspot.com/2011/06/economy-is-deteriorating-at-extremely.html ^ | libertarian neocon

Posted on 06/16/2011 6:56:51 PM PDT by libertarian neocon

In case you missed it, today was the release of the Philly Fed Survey, which was another disastrous economic datapoint. Expectations were for a reading of +7, indicating minor growth, instead it came in at -7.7, indicating contraction.

Looking at this chart, the thing that pops out at me is how fast both the current activity and the future activity indices (expectations for activity in the next 6 months, which as you can see people always think things will either be the same or better) have been collapsing over the last 3 months. So I decided to look at the historical data, that goes back to 1968, to see when were the other times the 3 month change was this bad. The problem is, it's actually never been this bad. Below is the chart for the 3 month change in the Current Activity Index:

The last time the 3 month change even came close to the level of deterioration we've seen (51.1 points) was the 4th quarter of 1974 (50.5 points). This was right after Nixon resigned in disgrace and was a period when we were dealing with the ramifications of our loss in Vietnam, a stock market crash and an oil embargo. Also, we are currently dwarfing the deterioration we saw in the 4th quarter of 2008 (remember how we all felt the world was falling apart then?) which had a 3 month change of 34.7 points. What is even worse is that the current 3 month change is greater than the change we saw in this index between November 2007 and November 2008, which was a decline of 47.4 points. Now let's take a look at the same analysis with the Future Activity Index, which looks 6 months out:

Yup, that chart is correct, since 1968, we've never had a deterioration in this index that even came close to what we are seeing right now. There really is no way to sugar coat this, it is a disastrous reading. Also, the actual absolute reading itself is the lowest since the 4th quarter of 2008 when the world was coming apart at the seams.

It would be nice if we had a President who actually wanted to do something about the economy. After watching the GOP debate the other night, I came to the conclusion that I wouldn't mind if any of them were President. They would all do a better job than the current joker whose idea of stimulus is taking money from the productive members of society and giving it to unskilled labor so they can dig holes.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Government; Politics
KEYWORDS: debt; default; economy; obama; shtf; sourcetitlenoturl; teotwawki
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1 posted on 06/16/2011 6:56:54 PM PDT by libertarian neocon
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To: libertarian neocon

Borrowing money from China to spend in China isn’t really going to lead to any kind of “recovery”.


2 posted on 06/16/2011 6:58:58 PM PDT by Regulator (Watch Out! Americans are on the March! America Forever, Mexico Never!)
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To: libertarian neocon

Anyone tell the US Congress that the Fuhrer is destroying the country? Anyone in Congress demanding an investigation into the Fuhrer?


3 posted on 06/16/2011 6:59:59 PM PDT by ExTexasRedhead
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To: libertarian neocon

Obama promised us a total transformation of America. This is merely the beginning.

The government is saying everything is OK, which implies that everything they are doing is on track.


4 posted on 06/16/2011 7:01:32 PM PDT by DBrow
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To: libertarian neocon

Creating wealth, an old fashioned idea we need to return to.


5 posted on 06/16/2011 7:05:29 PM PDT by Huskrrrr
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To: libertarian neocon

Followed by slight good signs today. People really need to be careful and not get caught up in craziness. Balance.


6 posted on 06/16/2011 7:05:33 PM PDT by Peter from Rutland (!@)
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To: libertarian neocon

Hope is changin indeed.


7 posted on 06/16/2011 7:05:39 PM PDT by Soothesayer9
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To: libertarian neocon

Yet the Dow showed a modest gain today.Why?


8 posted on 06/16/2011 7:06:31 PM PDT by Farmer Dean (stop worrying about what they want to do to you,start thinking about what you want to do to them)
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To: Regulator
Borrowing money from China to spend in China isn’t really going to lead to any kind of “recovery”.

"You don't know that!!!" [/Libspeak]

9 posted on 06/16/2011 7:08:49 PM PDT by ClearCase_guy (The USSR spent itself into bankruptcy and collapsed -- and aren't we on the same path now?)
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To: Regulator
Borrowing money from China to spend in China isn’t really going to lead to any kind of “recovery”.

I smell a whiff of confusion between the budget and trade deficits.

10 posted on 06/16/2011 7:11:47 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: libertarian neocon

I think there’s a good chance that in Nov 012, people will refer to 2008 as the “good old days”.

Baraq is toast. At least if we can keep it a 2-way race.


11 posted on 06/16/2011 7:12:56 PM PDT by nascarnation
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To: libertarian neocon

ughh.. these charts mean absolutely nothing to me.


12 posted on 06/16/2011 7:14:41 PM PDT by eak3
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To: libertarian neocon
The economy is deteriorating at an EXTREMIST'S fast rate,
13 posted on 06/16/2011 7:16:34 PM PDT by hflynn
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To: libertarian neocon
The economy is deteriorating at an EXTREMIST'S fast rate,
14 posted on 06/16/2011 7:16:47 PM PDT by hflynn
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To: Farmer Dean
For 2 years, the rise in the market (SPY in this case) is largely correlated to the weakness in the USD. Now today is/was just one day, but IMHO the chaos in Europe should have the effect of driving people back into the dollar, strengthening it. This is why, also IMHO, the market has been clocked lately. We are seeing a stronger USD in the form of cheaper gas and commodity weeakness, as well. It is not showing up so badly in gold and silver but Platinum & palladium have been smoked pretty well. No telling how long this "stonger dollar" thing will last. Photobucket
15 posted on 06/16/2011 7:18:08 PM PDT by Attention Surplus Disorder (Tired of being seen as idiots, the American people went to the polls in 2008 and removed all doubt.)
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To: Regulator

The American government is spending money in China? I don’t think so.


16 posted on 06/16/2011 7:18:28 PM PDT by arrogantsob (Why do They hate her so much?)
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To: libertarian neocon
Wait till the government retirement pensions collapse....

The screams will be heard coast to coast.

17 posted on 06/16/2011 7:19:26 PM PDT by dragnet2 (Diversion and evasion are tools of deceit)
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To: ExTexasRedhead

maybe they are all in on it.


18 posted on 06/16/2011 7:22:06 PM PDT by television is just wrong
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To: dragnet2

Ireland already executed a partial pension seizure. 3.5 Bn Euros, I think.

Shotguns, pitchforks.


19 posted on 06/16/2011 7:22:13 PM PDT by Attention Surplus Disorder (Tired of being seen as idiots, the American people went to the polls in 2008 and removed all doubt.)
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To: Farmer Dean
It did? Photobucket
20 posted on 06/16/2011 7:22:37 PM PDT by Greystoke
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To: hflynn

Good one!


21 posted on 06/16/2011 7:23:03 PM PDT by DBrow
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To: Farmer Dean

The fed pulled strings... things happen. Disgusting.

LLS


22 posted on 06/16/2011 7:25:14 PM PDT by LibLieSlayer (WOLVERINES... a Conservative subsidiary of Reagan's party)
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To: DBrow

The Stock Market doesn’t reflect the economy until it crashes. Jim Rogers


23 posted on 06/16/2011 7:25:34 PM PDT by scooby321
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To: arrogantsob

“The American government is spending money in China?”

No, but China makes a large percentage of our consumer goods, plus parts for those things we build here. Money flows from the US to China in multiple paths.

We do, though pay China to do a number of things, like clean up their coal plants, and “aid” for this and that.


24 posted on 06/16/2011 7:25:49 PM PDT by DBrow
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To: DBrow
None of which even approaches the amount of money that our government spends that it doesn't have. In fact, if your focus is on China as the problem here, then you are part of the problem.

Our government spends too much money. Problem. Period. Boycotting Wal-Mart will not do a damn thing to solve it. Get with the program.

25 posted on 06/16/2011 7:31:56 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: arrogantsob; Regulator
The American government is spending money in China?

Is there a country on this planet where the U.S. Government is not giving away our tax dollars?

And if these other countries can't get enough, like the Mexicans, they just enter the country illegally, by the millions, and take it in person.

26 posted on 06/16/2011 7:33:37 PM PDT by dragnet2 (Diversion and evasion are tools of deceit)
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To: 1rudeboy

I did not propose a WalMart boycott. I was commenting on borrowing money from China and then spending money there.

I’m sure that the amount we spend on Chinese nails, screws, nuts and bolts far exceeds WalMart expenditures.

I’m aware that we spend trillions that we don’t have, but thanks for refreshing me!


27 posted on 06/16/2011 7:45:51 PM PDT by DBrow
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To: 1rudeboy
I smell a whiff of confusion between the budget and trade deficits.

Where do you think the Chinese get the money to buy Treasuries with?

Trade deficits are not a problem in and of themselves, combine them with a profligate government and a foreign government willing and able to vacuum up the surplus and buy the profligate government's debt and you have a problem brewing...

28 posted on 06/16/2011 7:50:33 PM PDT by Gunslingr3
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To: Gunslingr3
This may come as a newsflash to you, but the Chinese have money. Don't buy your urinal cakes from them, if you wish. It won't make a damn bit of difference.

Good Lord, and God help us . . . it appears that few see the real problem.

29 posted on 06/16/2011 7:54:54 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: Farmer Dean

“Yet the Dow showed a modest gain today.Why?”

It’s a rigged casino.


30 posted on 06/16/2011 7:57:29 PM PDT by DuncanWaring (The Lord uses the good ones; the bad ones use the Lord.)
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To: 1rudeboy; DBrow
In fact, if your focus is on China as the problem here, then you are part of the problem.

Hi yankee, haha...he right...Communist China not problem..We good for yankee...China make yankee proud...Give good job to yankee...haha..You go shop...Get some poon tang doggie yum yums for you and doggie...haha...You be nice, we give you ride on new china aircraft carrier....hahah...Bye bye now..

31 posted on 06/16/2011 7:59:48 PM PDT by dragnet2 (Diversion and evasion are tools of deceit)
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To: libertarian neocon; blam; Kartographer

So there’s a balk at the next step of monetization (”QE”) in an attempt to drive oil down and the dollar up to resume the global debt game. Meanwhile, those who depend on debt for incomes/contracts shout that the sky is falling.

Geithner warns Congress on need for debt boost, extends default deadline
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2713846/posts

Is China broke and consuming much less fuel, yet? ...doubtful.

CIA World Factbook
Country Comparison: Current Account Balance
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2187rank.html

And we’re not even into the “austerity” phase, yet.


32 posted on 06/16/2011 8:03:35 PM PDT by familyop (Shut up, and eat your brains!)
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To: dragnet2

Hey, dumbass . . . I’m telling you to focus on the real problem. That is not an admission that other problems don’t exist. God, you people are dense. CUT GOVERNMENT SPENDING NOW, instead of looking for excuses.


33 posted on 06/16/2011 8:04:11 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: 1rudeboy
Hey, dumbass .

You seem angry yankee...haha...you calm down, get big tube china TV, a nice china couch...haha...pickup poon tang yum yums...they make yankee strong....and happy....bye bye now...

34 posted on 06/16/2011 8:08:12 PM PDT by dragnet2 (Diversion and evasion are tools of deceit)
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To: dragnet2

Aw, that one stung a little, didn’t it? Cry some more.


35 posted on 06/16/2011 8:09:03 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: 1rudeboy

Are you aware that if we cut spending, we wouldn’t have to borrow so much?


36 posted on 06/16/2011 8:12:23 PM PDT by Mr Rogers (Poor history is better than good fiction, and anything with lots of horses is better still)
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To: 1rudeboy

You silly yankee...you get job at china mart...make you happy....Make you proud...Name you first boy, Dum Gai....haha


37 posted on 06/16/2011 8:14:00 PM PDT by dragnet2 (Diversion and evasion are tools of deceit)
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To: Mr Rogers
I believe you meant to direct your comment to the other guy, who appeared to be arguing that, if we didn't pay others for goods, then they wouldn't have the money to invest in our Treasury bonds. (And by magic our government would spend less money).

You are dealing with people who don't have a very firm grasp of the issue, I'm afraid.

38 posted on 06/16/2011 8:15:12 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: 1rudeboy

Great Idea, now where would you start cutting. Give it your best shot.


39 posted on 06/16/2011 8:15:40 PM PDT by BooBoo1000 (The Mills of the Gods grind slow, but exceedingly fine.)
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To: 1rudeboy
if we didn't pay Communist China for goods, then Communist China wouldn't have the money to invest in our Treasury bonds

Soon we call them China Bonds!

40 posted on 06/16/2011 8:18:03 PM PDT by dragnet2 (Diversion and evasion are tools of deceit)
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To: dragnet2

Damn, you are upset. Things at the Oriental Massage not go as planned? Did you ask for a “happy ending,” and they assumed you wanted a young boy?


41 posted on 06/16/2011 8:18:36 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: BooBoo1000
What is this, 20 questions? Pawlenty gave it a decent shot. Let's start there. And stop with acting stupid.

(I'm not endorsing Pawlenty, by the way . . . but let's not let that stop my admirers from going into menopause).

42 posted on 06/16/2011 8:22:11 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: 1rudeboy

haha...you stin ki pu....You buy some nice china soap...Make you happy...Make you proud...


43 posted on 06/16/2011 8:22:24 PM PDT by dragnet2 (Diversion and evasion are tools of deceit)
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To: BooBoo1000

Whatever you do, don’t ask anyone else on this thread for suggestions. They have nothing.


44 posted on 06/16/2011 8:24:12 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: 1rudeboy
Whatever you do, don’t ask anyone else on this thread for suggestions. They have nothing.

Was this inclusive of yourself, or do you have suggestions?

45 posted on 06/16/2011 8:30:47 PM PDT by RegulatorCountry
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To: RegulatorCountry
Gosh, I can't help people that are illiterate. How did you manage to respond to me?

(I'll give you a hint though: I mentioned something about government spending--why don't you start there and read farther down the thread?)

46 posted on 06/16/2011 8:34:07 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: 1rudeboy
You want to reduce government spending? Dramatically reduce the size of government?

Good thinking...Great strategy....Bet no one ever thought of that!

Of course, even under the Republicans, spending went through the roof....Sounds great....Good luck with that!

47 posted on 06/16/2011 8:39:37 PM PDT by dragnet2 (Diversion and evasion are tools of deceit)
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To: 1rudeboy

I’ll be somewhat more charitable and presume some temporary lapse in cognition on your part. You should get that checked out.

But in the meantime, return to the question asked of you, to which you apparently replied in some disembodied state, which then prompted my reply. Work on understanding the implications of that series of exchanges, and then get back to me.


48 posted on 06/16/2011 8:43:08 PM PDT by RegulatorCountry
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To: dragnet2
Bet no one ever thought of that!

Looks like I had to remind you. There are other intelligent people out there, though.

49 posted on 06/16/2011 8:44:09 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: RegulatorCountry
#42, for the win

Any other questions? As I alluded to earlier, the density on this thread is approaching that of a collapsed star.

50 posted on 06/16/2011 8:46:12 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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