Skip to comments.The Economy is Cratering
Posted on 08/18/2011 9:26:38 AM PDT by libertarian neocon
A couple of months ago, I analyzed the data from the Phillie Fed survey, which showed the fastest 3 month deterioration in the index since it began in 1968. After a small bounce last month, the wheels have completely come off. Expectations were for a reading of +2, signifying slight growth (more like a mild swelling), but it came in at -30.7! That signifies a deep recession as those are the levels it was at in the November 2008-March 2009 period. The future expectations index, which is generally more positive (as people are generally positive) came in at a paltry 1.4, the lowest since November 2008. As you can see from the chart below, things just aren't pretty:
Update: So I looked at the historical data more closely. Every reading of the Philly Fed survey of this magnitude has either meant we were in a recession or heading into one within 6 months. I also looked to see at what reading point does it look like there is a significant chance of us either being in a recession or heading into one. It looks that with a reading of -11.8 or worse there is an 89% chance of us being in a recession or heading into one. If you take into account the 3 readings that were within 3 months of the end of the previous recession, the odds go up to 93%. Again, note the reading is at -30.7, a level at which there was never a false reading.
Good point. I was just using the official NBER dates for the sake of simplicity but I agree with you that we have really never recovered. Based on my calculations for the unemployment rate (which essentially doesnt kick out the long term unemployed) we are at a new high of 11.9%!
We are now in a recession.
The only question is whether we go into a depression.
We are now in an oppression.
Double Dip coming up and I ain’t talk’n roller coaster or Baskin Robbins!
I think that we are in for something like the collapse of Argentina ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7yerKMQc7-w&feature=grec_index)but from the look of things it may even be on a global scale. Additionally I think we will see a much more violent version. As recent events show (Flash Mobs, UK riots, etc)we have a larger entitlement minded population and a the US has a much more violent and armed population than Argentina. I see many many small business wiped out by flash mob looting, and see rape, robbery and murder for murder sake. Many of these yutes will think no more about killing you than most people think about stepping on a roach. That will be the test of many. Most preppers I know are Christian people and they will hesitate to do what they might have to do to stop the yutes. On the other hand the yutes wont think twice nor lose a minute of sleep, in fact they will smile and laugh about it.
Think of this quote which is one of my favorites:
Star Trek: Deep Space Nine: The Siege of AR-558 (#7.8) (1998)
Quark: Let me tell you something about Hew-mons, Nephew. Theyre a wonderful, friendly people, as long as their bellies are full and their holosuites are working. But take away their creature comforts, deprive them of food, sleep, sonic showers, put their lives in jeopardy over an extended period of time and those same friendly, intelligent, wonderful people... will become as nasty and as violent as the most bloodthirsty Klingon. You dont believe me? Look at those faces. Look in their eyes.
Now go look at some of the videos of the riots in the UK and of some of the flash mobs here in the US and look into there eyes.
For those who are just starting or are old hands at prepping you may find my Preparedness Manual helpfull. You can download it at:
For those of you who havent started already its time to prepare almost past time maybe. You needed to be stocking up on food guns, ammo, basic household supplies like soap, papergoods, cleaning supplies, good sturdy clothes including extra socks, underwear and extra shoes and boots, a extra couple changes of oil and filters for your car, tools, things you buy everyday start buying two and put one up.
As the LDS say When the emergency is upon us the time for preparedness has past.
Or as the bible says: A prudent man sees danger and takes refuge, but the simple keep going and suffer for it.
NIV Proverbs 22:3
Lastly this for the doubters and the scoffers.
There is no greater disaster than to underestimate danger.
Underestimation can be fatal.
To paraphrase Ronald Reagan, a recession is when you neighbor loses his job, a depression is when you lose yours and a recovery is when Obama loses his.
Even if we accept the official definitions of “recession” and “recovery” and that we did. indeed “recover” from the recession, history tells us that all that is not particularly relevant. The 1930s Great Depression was not a uniform period of decline at all but, rather a series of recessions interspersed with weak but highly touted recoveries. The series didn’t really end until the 50s Eisenhower boom. The War was a period of full-employment depression but there was really no economic improvement in peoples’ lives. I expect we have a lot longer than that in this one unless we go to Real War which is not unlikely and we would enter that war as unprepared as we were on entry into WWII. After the War if a sensible general becomes president then perhaps we can make some real progress back to economic and cultural health. Republicans taking over from the kenyan next year would bring only a temporary reprieve, another doomed Recovery because Republicans will not do what is necessary which is to lop off finally all the anti Constitutional and stifling agencies, departments, and bureaus that afflict us.
I think a harbinger of whether Western Civ will survive will come if the Arabs carry through with the threatened invasion of Israel by hundreds of thousands of “unarmed” Palies and whoever else they can muster. If the Israelis do what they have to do and stop it at the border with whatever force is required then I think we will survive. If they give in to the US and their own bleeding hearts and don’t kill enough of them to turn them back then that is probably how our own society will react when the wannabe Palies among us ramp up to mass violence. Can our LEOs actually shoot to kill minorities? So far the law here and in England just stands back and lets the destruction go on because the pols and the chiefs psychologically cannot actually inflict pain on minorities.
It will be up to We the People to implement this...and unfortunately it will be somewhat painful for those dependent upon entitlements.
Warren Harding had it figured it out in 1920...
Congress and the Executive Branch have lots to do.
So far theyre not doin it right..
Its been done before..
Harding cut the governments budget nearly in half between 1920 and 1922. The rest of Hardings approach was equally laissez-faire. Tax rates were slashed for all income groups. The national debt was reduced by one-third. The Federal Reserves activity, moreover, was hardly noticeable. As one economic historian puts it, Despite the severity of the contraction, the Fed did not move to use its powers to turn the money supply around and fight the contraction. 2 By the late summer of 1921, signs of recovery were already visible. The following year, unemployment was back down to 6.7 percent and was only 2.4 percent by 1923.
BTW..ole Warren ALSO fixed immigration...
Mr. Harding signed into law the Emergency Quota Act which sought to control immigration following World War I and preserve the distinctive American culture by ensuring the majority of immigrants came from the historically compatible cultures of Northern Europe. This law aimed to bring wages of hard working Americans under control by limiting immigration to 3% of the 1910 census. It was followed on by a similar act in 1924, after Mr. Hardings death.
A Warren Harding prescription...if filled ...would ignite the afterburners on the US job machine and the economy. However DC would have to yield on a tremendous amount of power. Our job as We the People...is to persuade them of the utility ..shall we say..of doing so. In all probability the same minds that made the mess...arent capable of the solution however.
BTW any takers that Bammy couldnt even tell you that Warren Harding was one of his predecessors in office?
Even more telling about what our betters in the RinoCracy think of a Constitutional President..
A 50% cut, for example, can be achieved in Medicare easily. The current 2012 Medicare budget is 916.00/mo per beneficiary.Eliminate Medicare entirely. Add a 408.00/mo benefit to the monthly SS check of beneficiaries..who may then CHOOSE whether or not they want health care after age 65-67 by using this to buy a health insurance policy.
We the People can take control of this inevitability now...and let it proceed in an orderly fashion...or let the markets take us out and the International Banker's solutions will be uglier than any of us have the capacity to imagine. CW II will be far uglier and divisive than CW I was...and there will be no USA at its conclusion.
“Recession” and “unemployment” depend on the statistics; because the government controls the statistics, they get to claim whatever they need to claim. For example, unemployment is measured in a much more exact and deceptive way than it was during the Great Depression. This was to prop up LBJ without actually lying about the numbers. Now, Obama’s team just “assumes” a certain amount of economic activity that they can’t find in reality.
Really - they admit that they make this stuff up. It’s all to avoid their own definition of “depression” as 4 consecutive economic quarters of negative growth. “0.4%” is enough to claim “recovery” even though IT’S A LIE!!!
BTW, actual unemployment is near 20%, not under 10%.
Great tagline, BTW - hope you don’t mind me ‘looting’ it...
“Great tagline, BTW - hope you dont mind me looting it...”
Go for it. The more the merrier.
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