Skip to comments.New Poll Shows Turner Ahead In NY-9
Posted on 09/06/2011 1:50:29 PM PDT by CaroleL
A new poll released today shows Republican Bob Turner with a 4 point lead over Democrat David Weprin in their race to replace disgraced Congressman Anthony Weiner (D-New York). In addition to the surprising lead in a district in which Democrats out number Republicans by a margin of 3 to 1, the poll also found that Mr. Turner wins the favorability contest with 37% of respondents viewing him favorably compared to just 29.8% for Mr. Weprin.
With just one week before the special election to fill a seat that was recently considered a sure hold for the Democrats, there's more bad news for Team Weprin. The editorial board of the New York Post endorsed Mr. Turner today and while their choice was hardly a surprise from the right-leaning paper, the endorsement included some strong criticism of Mr. Weprin.
(Excerpt) Read more at talkingsides.com ...
Sorry, but, a 4 point lead by a republican in a democrat district, especially in a democrat state, is like a 4 point margin for the democrat. That race, unless the republican gets a much wider margin, like 10% or more, might as well be counted as a loss right now. Democrat voter fraud easily overcomes any “slight” republican lead, and a 5% lead is slight.
A lead in the polls won’t overcome vote early and often. The Dems run the voting in New York, and they run the counting.
Wow. If things are that dire in that district for Obummer, Turner has a real shot.
How long before people coming flying in here saying that we don’t need this seat because Turner is too RINO?
I hope the Pubbies have a team of lawyers standing by as the votes are counted. I want them to check every friggin’ ballot.
This is a tall order. But I welcome any good news, and I would be thrilled at a GOP victory.
Lots of DNC phone calls to get Maury and Irma to return from Boca Raton to cast their vote in the old nighborhodd where they still are registered.
I wonder if Turner's campaign has the ablity to have volunteers do phone-banking by proxy? Sounds like a worthy project for freepers to get involved in if that's possible. I did phone banking for Pat Toomey's 2004 campaign against Arlen Specter using my cell phone in Illinois.
Oh, and if there's any liberals lurking on FR, I hear the Democrat nominee is NOT progressive enough. You should support Socialist Worker's Party nominee Chris Hoeppner instead. Hee hee hee... ;-)
This would be so cool! Smack Andrew the Great and The Wunnerful Whizzard of BOZ!
This would be a HUGE win for the GOP.
Thanks for the ping.
The beauty part is that all the pundits will characterize the Dem election loss as a blow against Obama.
A Republican victory here would be amazing. I expect that Turner would face another incumbent in 2012 if he wins, with an upstate Democrat (probably ultra-leftist Maurice Hinchley) also getting the ax in redistricting.
What, he lives in/near Howard Beach? — the narrow neck of the 9th?
He could be put in with Towns (10th) or Meeks (6th) but those districts will be majority black and he will have no chance.
If this is the case then I suspect Hochul will be left without a district also.
If the 9th stretches north, I don’t think it can stretch all the way to Roslyn Heights (Ackerman). It might stretch to Woodside (Crowley). The 12th is 44% Hispanic - it could be majority if it borrows some from Crowley’s 7th.
If the 9th stretches southwest I don’t think it can stretch all the way to Manhattan, although it could take in a good bit of the current 8th (Nadler).
If the 9th stretches southeast, he could be matched with Peter King (in which case Hochul is matched with either Higgins or Slaughter), or McCarthy, or he has his own seat.
If the latter then Hochul has her own as well. Slaughter’s seat would have to stretch to Syracuse — possibly Ithaca but if so then Hinchey is in a difficult position.
Yes he would be the obvious target for elimination in the traditional 1 for 1 NY fashion (do they lose 2 seats every time?).
But they key is that would save another Republican from getting it in his place.
I agree that if Turner wins this seat, it's quite possible that NY might eliminate BOTH Weiner and Lee's former seats. That would essentially make both "upsets" meaningless and be an effort on the part of NY politicians to hope voters forget about the fisacos that happened when Congressman resigned in 2011.
But whatever, a "GOP wins Congressional seat held by Dems since 1920s" headline would be worth it just to rub in the faces of the RATs who gloated they had a "mandate" on "Medicare, medicare, medicare!" when they won Lee's seat thanks to a phony "tea party" candidate splitting the conservative vote.
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