Skip to comments.New Poll Shows Turner Ahead In NY-9
Posted on 09/06/2011 1:50:29 PM PDT by CaroleL
A new poll released today shows Republican Bob Turner with a 4 point lead over Democrat David Weprin in their race to replace disgraced Congressman Anthony Weiner (D-New York). In addition to the surprising lead in a district in which Democrats out number Republicans by a margin of 3 to 1, the poll also found that Mr. Turner wins the favorability contest with 37% of respondents viewing him favorably compared to just 29.8% for Mr. Weprin.
With just one week before the special election to fill a seat that was recently considered a sure hold for the Democrats, there's more bad news for Team Weprin. The editorial board of the New York Post endorsed Mr. Turner today and while their choice was hardly a surprise from the right-leaning paper, the endorsement included some strong criticism of Mr. Weprin.
(Excerpt) Read more at talkingsides.com ...
Sorry, but, a 4 point lead by a republican in a democrat district, especially in a democrat state, is like a 4 point margin for the democrat. That race, unless the republican gets a much wider margin, like 10% or more, might as well be counted as a loss right now. Democrat voter fraud easily overcomes any “slight” republican lead, and a 5% lead is slight.
A lead in the polls won’t overcome vote early and often. The Dems run the voting in New York, and they run the counting.
Wow. If things are that dire in that district for Obummer, Turner has a real shot.
How long before people coming flying in here saying that we don’t need this seat because Turner is too RINO?
I hope the Pubbies have a team of lawyers standing by as the votes are counted. I want them to check every friggin’ ballot.
This is a tall order. But I welcome any good news, and I would be thrilled at a GOP victory.
Lots of DNC phone calls to get Maury and Irma to return from Boca Raton to cast their vote in the old nighborhodd where they still are registered.
I wonder if Turner's campaign has the ablity to have volunteers do phone-banking by proxy? Sounds like a worthy project for freepers to get involved in if that's possible. I did phone banking for Pat Toomey's 2004 campaign against Arlen Specter using my cell phone in Illinois.
Oh, and if there's any liberals lurking on FR, I hear the Democrat nominee is NOT progressive enough. You should support Socialist Worker's Party nominee Chris Hoeppner instead. Hee hee hee... ;-)
This would be so cool! Smack Andrew the Great and The Wunnerful Whizzard of BOZ!
This would be a HUGE win for the GOP.
Thanks for the ping.
The beauty part is that all the pundits will characterize the Dem election loss as a blow against Obama.
A Republican victory here would be amazing. I expect that Turner would face another incumbent in 2012 if he wins, with an upstate Democrat (probably ultra-leftist Maurice Hinchley) also getting the ax in redistricting.
What, he lives in/near Howard Beach? — the narrow neck of the 9th?
He could be put in with Towns (10th) or Meeks (6th) but those districts will be majority black and he will have no chance.
If this is the case then I suspect Hochul will be left without a district also.
If the 9th stretches north, I don’t think it can stretch all the way to Roslyn Heights (Ackerman). It might stretch to Woodside (Crowley). The 12th is 44% Hispanic - it could be majority if it borrows some from Crowley’s 7th.
If the 9th stretches southwest I don’t think it can stretch all the way to Manhattan, although it could take in a good bit of the current 8th (Nadler).
If the 9th stretches southeast, he could be matched with Peter King (in which case Hochul is matched with either Higgins or Slaughter), or McCarthy, or he has his own seat.
If the latter then Hochul has her own as well. Slaughter’s seat would have to stretch to Syracuse — possibly Ithaca but if so then Hinchey is in a difficult position.
Yes he would be the obvious target for elimination in the traditional 1 for 1 NY fashion (do they lose 2 seats every time?).
But they key is that would save another Republican from getting it in his place.
I agree that if Turner wins this seat, it's quite possible that NY might eliminate BOTH Weiner and Lee's former seats. That would essentially make both "upsets" meaningless and be an effort on the part of NY politicians to hope voters forget about the fisacos that happened when Congressman resigned in 2011.
But whatever, a "GOP wins Congressional seat held by Dems since 1920s" headline would be worth it just to rub in the faces of the RATs who gloated they had a "mandate" on "Medicare, medicare, medicare!" when they won Lee's seat thanks to a phony "tea party" candidate splitting the conservative vote.
Even if Turner wins, the NY-09 won’t be as easy to get rid off as people think. Sure, Democrats Crowley (NY-07) and Ackerman (NY-05) may be happy to take on the NY-09’s Queens precincts, but where will the socially conservative, Orthodox Jewish (with many Russian Jews as well) precincts in Brooklyn go? Maybe the Republican, largely Italian Staten Island NY-13 (which includes Bensonhurst) can take on some, but not many. The Hispanic-majority NY-12 and the black-majority NY-10 and NY-11 won’t want any of them. And then you’ve got all of those very similar precincts right next door in the Brooklyn portion of Nadler’s NY-08, which are also heavily Orthodox (it includes Borough Park) and, like the Brooklyn portion of the NY-09, voted for Bush and McCain in 2004 and 2008. Maybe the Assembly Democrats will block the creation of an Orthodox Jewish CD in Brooklyn, but they’d have to parcel out around 500,000 residents of the Brooklyn portions of NY-08 and NY-09 among Democrats who won’t want those conservative voters thrown into their districts, and it won’t be easy.
It's a reasonably close race, but don't expect the GOP, lacking much of a "ground game," to pull off the upset. Fraud can make up for the couple of percentage points that the 'Rat might trail by.
According to one of the polls, three percent of likely voters are supporting the SWP candidate.
I heard that Schmuck Schumer and Little Andrew Cuomo are pushing for Weprin to win. If Wepring loses this would be a slap in their ugly mugs.
My Turner sign is working! I took it down before the hurricane and put it back up once Irene was all done.
Many NY’ers vote democrat simply because republicans don’t even bother running. I don’t think this district ever had a credible GOP contender before Turner.
Orthodox Jewish, Democrat Assemblyman Dov Hikind endorses Bob Turner:
Main reasons for Hikind snubbing fellow Democrat Assemblyman David Weprin and endorsing Turner instead: Weprin voting for legalizing same-sex marriage (and claiming that his Orthodox Jewish upbringing led him to support same-sex marriage), and President Obama’s policies towards Israel.
This could be huge.
Could this be the canary in the coalmine for Obama?
Tom Jensen from Democrat pollster PPP tweeted that after the first day of their NY-09 poll it is clear that the Democrats are in “BIG TROUBLE” (and he emphasized that it merited all caps). PPP has been pretty good in their final polls the last couple of years (it is in their early polls that they usually skew the samples in order to pretend that Dems are looking good and Republicans are in trouble), since they know they’ll be judged on their final poll before the election, so this is great news indeed.
Of course, I’m not ready to put on my party hat yet, since PPP famously had a final poll showing Hoffman winning handily in NY-23 in the 2009 special election, but in all fairness a poll taken while RINO nominee Scozzafava was dropping out but right before she endorsed the Democrat was a unique set of circumstances that does not truly measure PPP’s accuracy (plus the fact that Hoffman likely would have won but for the early votes that already had been cast for Scozzafava). So I’m cautiously optimistic about our chances of actually winning Tuesday’s special election. Turner has been a much better candidate than I thought he would be; I honestly did not think that a Republican who was not an Orthodox Jew could win in that district.
Forgot to ping you.
Homer nods: Jensen’s exact Tweet was “My pretty straight forward take on the first night of our NY-9 poll: Dems in BIG trouble. It deserves the caps.” So only the BIG was in all caps. I don’t think it changes things much, but I should have double-checked what he wrote before posting instead of relying on my memory.
Thanks. Sounds like the undecideds are breaking Turner’s way as Welprin, being a Dem, is considered the “incumbent”.
If Turner wins, do you think this seat will be nixed?
On another subject, did you see Luntz’s focus group last night? Combo of Dem/GOP and almost unanimously not impressed with Obama’s proposal and also even Dems on the panel were not sure they would vote for him again. They most likely will, but it’s not going to enthusiastic. Only one lone voice was brave enough to say that Obama hasn’t gotten enough support and we should give him more. Verdict of the others was FAIL.
I was struck by how many (by a show of hands) thought that government caused the recession and that there’s nothing that government could do to improve things. Many said they wanted government to get out of the way and leave us alone.
One small sample, to be sure, but a very angry and disgusted group they were.
Lightbulbs are going on in peoples’ heads, hopefully.
I think that large swaths of the Queens portion of the district may well be portioned off among Democrats Crowley and Ackerman, but the Orthodox Jewish neighborhoods in Brooklyn (which are next door to similar neighborhoods in Nadler’s NY-08) may not have any takers. Nadler may prefer to get out of Brooklyn completely, which would result in a heavily Orthodox Jewish district being created in Brooklyn that takes in the Brooklyn portions of the NY-08 and NY-09 (both of which voted for Bush in 2004 and McCain in 2008). While one seat south of the Westchester County bottleneck will have to go, I think that it’s likelier that they’ll get rid of one of the Long Island CDs (the NY-06 will need to grab black voters from Nassau County) and that would leave a district in that part of Brooklyn.
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