Skip to comments.No Rise in Home Prices Until 2020: Bankers
Posted on 09/30/2011 11:24:02 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Home prices are unlikely to recover before 2020 and mortgage defaults will persist for years, says a survey of bank risk managers out Friday.
The survey conducted by the Professional Risk Managers International Association for FICO, found that 49 percent of respondents do not expect housing prices to rise back to 2007 levels for another nine years. Only 21 percent of respondents said they would.
The findings, which authors called a decidedly pessimistic outlook, are a sharp reversal from cautious optimism the survey respondents expressed late last year and in early 2011.
In addition, 73 percent of surveyed bankers say they expect mortgage defaults to remain elevated for at least another five years. And 46 percent believe mortgage delinquencies will increase over the next six months...
(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...
There is definately a contradiction in the title of this article and the content in the body of the article. it says that there will be no rise in home prices until 2020, but then saying that home price values will not get back to 2007 levels. 2007 levels were pretty high and it could be longer than 10 years to ger back there. But I think there will be at least a small to moderate rise in home prices in the next ten years.
I actually agree with you if all the right things happen. If the GOP gets control which they surely will in 2013 and if they actually do what needs to be done. Some of these banks like BOFA need to fail and the toxic portfoio of REO’s needs to be put out on the market and sold off for whatever investors will pay. We need to take the pain and get it over with. Then the housing market will rebound. Until then we will just limp along.
In addition the tax system will have to be changed to promote business growth and jobs and all of the crazy regulations will have to be rolled back.
Hopefully the GOP will be up to the task.
If Obama wins in 2012, IMHO, America is finished. I don't see a way to recover. The Fed is out of bullets and we are out of money. How will we mark time or coast for another 4 years unless Obama has an epiphany? His religion says capitalism is the problem, not the cure. His textbook is Mao's little red book, or maybe he read the book Chavez gave him at that meeting back when he was first elected.
If McCain had been elected back in '08, then maybe,( I know I can't get in his mind), It may have been possible to lower taxes and cut spending to cut the recession short. A short history lesson shows Bush 43 came into office in recession and he cut taxes and his recession was the shortest and shallowest in history. If Obama had cut spending and taxes when he came in, he may have run up a short term deficit, but it would have taken the pressure off of the job creators and business would have responded sooner. As it is, he spent the "recovery" deficit money on propping up unions and sweetheart payments instead of helping the economy. Now the unions are still killing business and costing taxpayers and the donors are still giving money back to the Dems, but all we get is the bill and more deficits. He has actually done harm to the economy and not helped anyone. Even the union members will eventually be fired as there is still no money to feather bed them anymore.
The next president, no matter who it is, has no money left to "stimulate" the economy. We spent over a $trillion and got nothing but a huge tax bill. If he had just dedicated, lets say, $500 billion to tax relief, we would have at least taken the pressure off the businesses and only ran up the deficit half as much. It's not that we didn't need stimulus, but Keynesian's don't stimulate the right people. Giving wino's and retiree's $250 to spend at Walmart doesn't create jobs. When the money is spent, you wait for the next check. Same with building a bridge. When the bridge is finished, the workers are laid off and waiting for the next gubmint check. If you give a tax break to a business, he figures out how to use it to expand his business, hire more workers and build the bottom line to make more money and pay more taxes.
It all goes back to giving a man a fish or teaching him how to fish. Keynesian's are the problem, not the solution. They will tell you with a straight face that we should have doubled the stimulus package to get it to work. What we really need is a $28 trillion debt and a $3 trillion deficit and we will be rolling in jobs. That is what we are dealing with as the Obama "religion".
Good. Then let the flood of foreclosures commence instead of holding them up with a dam of lawyers and socialism. The currently high property taxes are only propping up unneeded, lazy, overpaid emergency/rescue/regulatory/social/socialist parasites and preventing a resurgence of real productivity and worthwhile business by better people (the true private sector, holding back on spending and activities until then).
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