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Why Governor Perry is still likely to be nominated
Red State ^ | October 27, 2011 | barleycorn

Posted on 10/27/2011 11:05:28 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife

Numerous preemptive obituaries are being written for Governor Rick Perry’s campaign. These efforts are premature because they fail to understand and appreciate the fickle winds of political fortune.

Governor Perry has substantial political assets that make him a potent candidate and that will give him another chance to prove himself to Republican voters.

Each candidate brings their own set of positives and negatives to the game:

Mitt Romney has money to burn, establishment support, business experience, and passable debating skills. He also has a record far to the left of the majority of Republicans, a history of changing his position on major issues, and gives the impression that he will let you down when your back is turned.

Herman Cain has business experience, a high likability factor, and a fresh approach to conventional problems. He also has a propensity for confusing statements, no history of political success, and seems less vested in his own campaign than are his supporters.

Newt Gingrich has laser-like intelligence, a thorough understanding of policy choices, and excellent debating skills. He also has two ex-wives, a tendency to talk too much, and a manner that strikes many independents and women as smug or arrogant.

Rick Perry is not an able debater. In fact he seems to be bored with the entire exercise and I don’t blame him for that. The process that currently passes for “debate” is a valueless mixture of antagonistic press conference and TV quiz show. Rick Perry is not a policy wonk. Neither was Ronald Reagan. Neither was Dwight Eisenhower. Neither was George Washington.

What Governor Perry does have is:

A demonstrated ability to win elections.

A demonstrated understanding of how to lead and govern.

A Reaganesque capacity to touch the “mystic chords of memory” that bind us together.

A large stockpile of cash.

A set of opponents who all have significant electoral problems of their own.

While being ahead is intuitively always better than being behind, the clear political fact is that polls in October-November-December, don’t win elections in January and February. An Iowa State University poll published on November 18, 2003 showed Howard Dean at 29%, Dick Gephardt at 21%, John Kerry at 15%, and John Edwards at 8%. A Pew Research poll published on December 2, 2003 showed Dean at 26%, Gephardt at 22%, Kerry at 9%, and Edwards at 5%. (H/T nationalpolls.com)

The Democrat’s experience in 2004 is I think highly relevant as it was largely the mirror image of 2012. Eight years ago Democrats loathed George W. Bush just as conservatives today can’t stomach Barack Obama. Like Obama now, Bush was widely seen as vulnerable and thus there was a wide open scrum for the Democrat nomination.

For all his money Mitt Romney has been unable to close the deal with Republican voters. For all his current polling success, Herman Cain still appears to be a long shot to stay the distance. For all of his smarts and ability Newt Gingrich retains major downside risks.

The flaws of his opponents, together with his own considerable skill and potential, leaves an opening the size of Texas for Governor Rick Perry.


TOPICS: Government; Politics; Society
KEYWORDS: 0heartless0; campaigning; delusional; derangement; economy; gopprimary; perry2012; perryastroturfing
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To: wmfights

Thanks for you kind reply.

How can you not think well of someone with that kind of support for our heroes?!

No...instead a bunch of good folks, and I hope generally well-meaning folks, get their feelings hurt over direct talk. Even if the direct talk is misplaced or poorly worded, real people should be able to see past that to the man.

But then again...sometimes I wonder what happened to the world I thought we lived in.

These days, FreeRepublic has a lot of the same characteristics of the libs: Alinsky tactics, demonization, hyperbole and “nuclear” tactics.

Whatever happened to civil discourse and looking for the real, true answer to our problems?

Hey, if Perry can’t play and Cain is the guy, I’ll support him.

But right now, I’m not sold.

Again, thanks for the reply.


101 posted on 10/27/2011 12:45:50 PM PDT by Chasaway
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

“Ricky Peron is a POS. America is turning into Norte Mexicana.............”
“Really? How is he doing that?”

Hahahaha. I can’t stand it anymore.


102 posted on 10/27/2011 12:46:06 PM PDT by FryingPan101 (Perry/Palin (Just dreamin'))
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To: Chasaway

I heard that Marcus was very opposed to Perry running until he had to go and bury a bunch of his friends. When he came back he told Perry he had changed his mind, he was needed and Marcus would stand behind him. I belive that was when all those SEALS were killed recently.


103 posted on 10/27/2011 12:46:16 PM PDT by McGavin999 ("Make what Americans buy, Buy what Americans make, and sell it to the world" Perry 2012)
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To: Vigilanteman
That's Perry's specialty, not mine.
If it were you to me, ALL ILLEGALS would serve 2 years hard labor building a rock wall fence along the entire Mexican Border, BEFORE we deported them.
Perry's the one who want more ILLEGALS.
104 posted on 10/27/2011 12:47:06 PM PDT by Yosemitest (It's simple, fight or die!)
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To: Abbeville Conservative
From someone still pushing Palin in their tagline.... perry road pic
105 posted on 10/27/2011 12:47:48 PM PDT by nixonsnose (Let's see all you lawyers argue your way out of hell.)
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To: Longbow1969
I am not, however, willing to vote in the primaries for a candidate who can't communicate.

Nov 4, 2010: CNN - Spitzer and Parker drill Perry on Social Security [runs to over 6 minutes though the slide dial says differently -- Spitzer gets a little pushy toward the end and Perry tells him, "I don't corner very well]

Oct 15, 2011: Rick Perry Unleashed on Video Tex. Governor Rick Perry stopped by the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review offices for an in-depth interview. The Trib put the interview on video. And here's the really cool thing about what the newspaper did: They let Perry explain the Perry energy jobs proposal at length, without interruptions with silly questions from the liberal media talking points memo (you know, the Lame Liberal 3 Questions to Trip Perry Up). But don't read the article. Apparently, somewhere outside the contents of these videos, the Tribune-Review asked those silly questions and wrote it down there. So, just watch these videos of Texas Gov. Rick Perry unleashed on his Energizing American Jobs and Security plan, and how his record is proof that he can execute that plan:”…..

106 posted on 10/27/2011 12:48:40 PM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: teg_76
Since you don't think Perry has a chance & no Freeper can ever be convinced otherwise, why do CW's post bother you?

Here's an idea. Get behind your guy or gal and start posting the good stuff he or she does.

I, and many others, appreciate CW's posts.

107 posted on 10/27/2011 12:49:02 PM PDT by Tribune7 (If you demand perfection you will wind up with leftist Democrats)
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To: teg_76
Us and about 90% of FR. Give it up, your boy is not popular here.

So, what is your solution? What do you propose?

108 posted on 10/27/2011 12:50:43 PM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

I’ll vote for him if he manages to snag the nomination from Herman, but I won’t work for him nor send money. Herman is my man.


109 posted on 10/27/2011 12:51:16 PM PDT by mombonn (God is looking for spiritual fruit, not religious nuts.)
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To: teg_76
I just wonder if you’re actually trying to help Perry win. If you are, you are going about it the wrong way. You’re turning more people off than you are attracting them.

Maybe I can help explain how things work for you. If you don't click on the blue words on the main page that have Perry in the headline, you won't have to read a single solitary thing about Perry. It's real simple, you'll catch on to it in no time.

110 posted on 10/27/2011 12:51:47 PM PDT by McGavin999 ("Make what Americans buy, Buy what Americans make, and sell it to the world" Perry 2012)
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To: GeronL

Cain doesn’t like the debate formats either.


111 posted on 10/27/2011 12:54:31 PM PDT by wolfcreek (Perry to Obama: Adios, MOFO!)
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To: Darkwolf377

Perhaps you’ve not had the opportunity to listen to him uninterrupted — at length. He’ll be on Fox News Sunday for the first half hour. I wonder what “snotty” comment Chris Wallace will throw out to keep his liberal credentials shined up. But it should be good TV.


112 posted on 10/27/2011 12:55:23 PM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: McGavin999

Yep. Have you read the story about the “black bean” vote Perry took with his family, Mr. Luttrell included?

Marcus was very hesitant...not wanting the Perry family to go through the gauntlet that he knew the campaign would present.

[You know the cast iron BITCH about that? Conservatives here on FreeRepublic are part of that!]

Thanks for your post. I don’t know exactly why, but I got a little emotional reading it.

Those SEAL guys are beyond amazing. And to have one want to protect Governor Perry from something he saw as tough is pretty telling.


113 posted on 10/27/2011 12:55:57 PM PDT by Chasaway
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
You can shine a pile of shit...but it never lasts.

re: Wallace

114 posted on 10/27/2011 12:56:49 PM PDT by Osage Orange (Si Vis Pacem, Para Bellum)
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To: Vigilanteman
If it comes down between Perry and Romney (and I don't think it will), people will gravitate to the RINO with better presentation skills.

I think Chris Matthews needs you to fill in the next time he's gone. LOL

115 posted on 10/27/2011 12:57:08 PM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Why Governor Perry is still likely to be nominated,

You're entering Baghdad Bob territory.

116 posted on 10/27/2011 12:58:22 PM PDT by McGruff (Hold the House, take the Senate.)
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To: Longbow1969

Perry can’t recover as long as the media, and that includes Faux News is in the tank for Romney. It will make no difference what he does in the remainng debates, what he says, or how he says it. Romney could stand there and not say a word and after the debate Faux News and CNN and the rest of the media, will say Perry lost, Romney won. So the debates are going to change nothing. If Perry is to get any traction people will have to quit relying on the media to pick who won these so-called debates. Perry needs to go state by state and get his message out. Face to face contact with the people. He’s got the money to do it. When you read assinine poll data every day saying Romney is winning in each and every state, you should pay no attention to that poll. I will jump in hell with my britches soaked in gasoline if Romney wins the SC primary. But to listen to the Romney-loving media he currently leads in that particular deep-south state. I was raised in the Carolinas, have family that lives all over South Carolina and they laugh at Perry and his liberal ways. Either Perry or Cain, with Gingrich being the longshot will win the SC primary. PAY NO ATTETION TO THESE MEDIA DRIVEN POLLS! They try to tell you who is winning. All Cain needed to do was win the Florida poll and he appeared on every talk show in existance for the next week and it’s not slowed down. Michele Bachmann won Iowa and got about 15 minutes of exposure. Ron Pauls wins Straw Polls every other day and Herman Cain is the story for finishing second. And of course Romney finishing in dead last place means nothing to the media and they won’t report it. Let Perry finish last and it’s the talk of the land on national TV for a week or two. Has Romney, who has been running for president for 6 years, ever won a straw poll of any type? I rest my case.


117 posted on 10/27/2011 1:01:01 PM PDT by Luther1917
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To: teg_76
Was Reagan ever stupid enought to tell 75% of the country they didn’t ever have a heart?

The stupid thing the Gipper said in his debate was "I'm all confused now"

Fortunately the voting public understood that good leaders are not necessarily going to be perfect at all times in debates.

118 posted on 10/27/2011 1:01:36 PM PDT by Tribune7 (If you demand perfection you will wind up with leftist Democrats)
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To: Yosemitest
Perry's the one who want more ILLEGALS.

Hey, listen up! Perry is the only one who WILL SEAL THE BORDER. The only one. And he will drive off and kill the Cartels.

119 posted on 10/27/2011 1:02:00 PM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: trumandogz
Give it a rest. That's a ridiculous assertion.

What would you expect someone running for President to say?

“Oh hell yeah! Put one of those on my pickum up truck” “We should never freed them blacks anyhow”

120 posted on 10/27/2011 1:02:08 PM PDT by wolfcreek (Perry to Obama: Adios, MOFO!)
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To: McGavin999
We are not talking about an Aggies Football Pep Rally, we are talking about our Country, it's health and safety.

People do not want slow talkers because when they are struggling to search for the words to say 75 percent of the people watching are giving the dunce clues,putting the words in the half wit's mouth. Even people with dementia say “hurry the hell up and spit it out, we are not getting any younger”. Slow talkers put people to sleep, and the attention span is zero.

121 posted on 10/27/2011 1:03:35 PM PDT by samantha (Sarah is our TEAple. leader for America the Beautiful...)
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To: Luther1917

Life isn’t fair.

But Perry isn’t going to play their game.


122 posted on 10/27/2011 1:04:13 PM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Darkwolf377
As important as illegal immigration is to me,

It's important to all of us. If I thought Perry wanted to open the border and give all who cross it voting rights and automatic welfare -- as I am certain Obama wants to do -- I would turn on him in a minute.

123 posted on 10/27/2011 1:08:15 PM PDT by Tribune7 (If you demand perfection you will wind up with leftist Democrats)
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To: Yosemitest

“Perry’s the one who want more ILLEGALS.”

Now that is just silly and false, too.


124 posted on 10/27/2011 1:09:02 PM PDT by MEG33 (God Bless Our Military Men And Women)
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To: mombonn
I’ll vote for him if he manages to snag the nomination from Herman, but I won’t work for him nor send money. Herman is my man.

Nothing wrong with that. If Herman wins I won't cry.

125 posted on 10/27/2011 1:10:58 PM PDT by Tribune7 (If you demand perfection you will wind up with leftist Democrats)
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To: samantha
....Slow talkers put people to sleep, and the attention span is zero.

The United States electorate would rather go to bed at night not worrying what crap their president has pulled on them than thinking how fast their president talks.

We don't want another "eloquent" speaker. (I never thought Obama was but apparently some people do).

I want someone who LOVES this country and believes that our best days are ahead for our children and their children.

Ft Hood Memorial Service.

126 posted on 10/27/2011 1:11:15 PM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
Actually, Erick Erickson isn't a Rick Perry fan these days.

Actually...yes he is.

127 posted on 10/27/2011 1:13:06 PM PDT by exist
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

OMG that is so good! He is terrific in that interview and I loved that he wouldn’t let them push him into a corner.


128 posted on 10/27/2011 1:14:02 PM PDT by McGavin999 ("Make what Americans buy, Buy what Americans make, and sell it to the world" Perry 2012)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
You've been drinking too much.
Perry's the biggest phony I've seen in a long time.
You can't be that naive.
129 posted on 10/27/2011 1:14:05 PM PDT by Yosemitest (It's simple, fight or die!)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
Sincere questions for you, CW. Do you honestly believe that the repeated and continuous postings of articles, photos and blog entries regarding Perry are going to change how a large number of FR members are going to view him as a candidate?

Is it your sincere belief that being fairly rude and sometimes obnoxious, in response to folks that don't like Perry, is going to bring those same folks to take a closer look at your candidate?

Are you really a mole working for the Romney campaign and trying to be so in-your-face about Perry that people will dislike Perry simply because you are pissing them off?

I swear that I thought the Palin-devoted did more to harm her on this forum than they did to promote her ... but you are really beginning to give them a run for their money!

130 posted on 10/27/2011 1:14:26 PM PDT by JustaDumbBlonde (Don't wish doom on your enemies. Plan it.)
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To: Electric Graffiti
OK, I cannot allow you to make a lie that Perry is open borders. He's anything but and this lie continues to get repeated over and over here on FR. I expect more from a conservative.

You know it is a lie but you post it anyway because it fits your agenda.

131 posted on 10/27/2011 1:14:47 PM PDT by Conservativegreatgrandma
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To: HereInTheHeartland
Perry gave a VERY good speech Sat. night. He even took a jab at his debate performances. He handled it just right.

It would be too bad if we choose a president based on his debating skills. Obama can't give a speech without a teleprompter.

132 posted on 10/27/2011 1:17:18 PM PDT by Conservativegreatgrandma
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To: miss marmelstein

Then ignore it—no problem.


133 posted on 10/27/2011 1:18:10 PM PDT by Conservativegreatgrandma
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To: teg_76; Cincinatus' Wife; Michael Barnes
Us and about 90% of FR. Give it up, your boy is not popular here.

Actually all the lies about Perry spouted here make me even a more avid fan of Perry. You must be very afraid that he will win over Cain.

134 posted on 10/27/2011 1:19:18 PM PDT by Irish Eyes
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To: MEG33
Really?
That's why Perry supports building a Border Fence?
That's why Perry want ILLEGALS to pay just as much as out of state American Citizens for an education? Is Perry's gardener an ILLEGAL?
Is Perry's babysitter an ILLEGAL?
Is Perry's housekeeper an ILLEGAL?
Is Perry's bodyguard an ILLEGAL?
How many ILLEGALS are there in Texas?
How many ILLEGALS has Perry deported?

Perry doesn't care about American Citizens. He only cares about ILLEGALS!
135 posted on 10/27/2011 1:20:34 PM PDT by Yosemitest (It's simple, fight or die!)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
"No one invited you to click on this thread or post a comment so you obviously like to."

Actually, every time you post a thread in a public forum, you are most definitely inviting folks to click on it and comment. Should you believe otherwise, maybe you can get the mods to lock all of your postings, so that they can be read and revered in 'silence'.

136 posted on 10/27/2011 1:20:42 PM PDT by JustaDumbBlonde (Don't wish doom on your enemies. Plan it.)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Perry/Cain would be fine with me, in either order. I prefer Cain or Bachmann to head the ticket, but after 24 years of RINOs being nominated, anything on the conservative side will be a relief. Even Newt.


137 posted on 10/27/2011 1:21:21 PM PDT by Defiant (We now have a Rabble-Rouser In Chief instead of a President.)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

I on’t know a soul who will vote for him in a primary. LOL


138 posted on 10/27/2011 1:21:21 PM PDT by dforest
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To: JustaDumbBlonde

NO ONE has to click on these articles. How can they annoy you if you ignore them?


139 posted on 10/27/2011 1:21:47 PM PDT by MEG33 (God Bless Our Military Men And Women)
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To: Longbow1969

Did you see the film of Perry’s speech Sat. night in Iowa? It was excellent. http://theiowarepublican.com/2011/perry-regains-his-footing-at-iffc-event/


140 posted on 10/27/2011 1:22:02 PM PDT by Conservativegreatgrandma
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To: nixonsnose; Abbeville Conservative
LOL! One good Perry sign deserves another! :)

Photobucket

141 posted on 10/27/2011 1:22:02 PM PDT by smoothsailing (FUMR-FUBO)
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To: exist

No, not that I’ve noticed. If you have a link to something supportive and positive Erickson has said recently about Perry, please put the link on this thread. I will stand corrected and say thank you.


142 posted on 10/27/2011 1:22:37 PM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: mombonn

That’s a fair statement..If Perry cannot win the nomination...Cain gets my vote.


143 posted on 10/27/2011 1:28:51 PM PDT by MEG33 (God Bless Our Military Men And Women)
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To: MEG33
"NO ONE has to click on these articles."

Well, thank you for that golden nugget of wisdom. What in the heck would we do without little meg explaining things to us?????

Understand this ... if someone wants to post thread after thread regarding opinions of why Perry will be nominated, that someone darn well ought to expect comments that contain opinions of why he won't.

Such is the world of public forums.

144 posted on 10/27/2011 1:29:38 PM PDT by JustaDumbBlonde (Don't wish doom on your enemies. Plan it.)
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To: indylindy
I on’t know a soul who will vote for him in a primary. LOL

Is that you Pauline Kael?

"I can't believe Nixon won. No one I know voted for him."

145 posted on 10/27/2011 1:30:17 PM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Yosemitest
How many ILLEGALS are there in Texas?
How many ILLEGALS has Perry deported?

You must be a foreigner because you don't seem to know how our government works. The states can not deport, that is the job of the feds. The number of illegals in Texas is a result of the federal government not doing the job that is clearly spelled out in the Constitution. You might try reading that document, it's not very long and it was written so anyone could clearly understand it. Here's a link for you in case you haven't had a chance to read it Constitution of the United States

146 posted on 10/27/2011 1:30:46 PM PDT by McGavin999 ("Make what Americans buy, Buy what Americans make, and sell it to the world" Perry 2012)
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To: RitaOK

Honestly Rita I there is no angst. I’m confident that either Cain or Gingrich will be the nominee long before your boy but keep pushing him and turning us off.


147 posted on 10/27/2011 1:30:55 PM PDT by Abbeville Conservative (Sarah Palin, the only cure for the RINO virus.)
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To: indylindy; Cincinatus' Wife
I on’t know a soul who will vote for him in a primary. LOL

Sorry about that you must be hanging with the wrong group.

148 posted on 10/27/2011 1:31:30 PM PDT by Irish Eyes
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
Perry likes the ILLEGAL MUSLIMS, also. You need to pick a candidate who likes U.S. Citizens, not ILLEGALS.
149 posted on 10/27/2011 1:33:14 PM PDT by Yosemitest (It's simple, fight or die!)
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To: Michael Barnes

How so? One does not have to click on, read or comment.


150 posted on 10/27/2011 1:33:37 PM PDT by MEG33 (God Bless Our Military Men And Women)
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