Skip to comments.Why Governor Perry is still likely to be nominated
Posted on 10/27/2011 11:05:28 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
Numerous preemptive obituaries are being written for Governor Rick Perrys campaign. These efforts are premature because they fail to understand and appreciate the fickle winds of political fortune.
Governor Perry has substantial political assets that make him a potent candidate and that will give him another chance to prove himself to Republican voters.
Each candidate brings their own set of positives and negatives to the game:
Mitt Romney has money to burn, establishment support, business experience, and passable debating skills. He also has a record far to the left of the majority of Republicans, a history of changing his position on major issues, and gives the impression that he will let you down when your back is turned.
Herman Cain has business experience, a high likability factor, and a fresh approach to conventional problems. He also has a propensity for confusing statements, no history of political success, and seems less vested in his own campaign than are his supporters.
Newt Gingrich has laser-like intelligence, a thorough understanding of policy choices, and excellent debating skills. He also has two ex-wives, a tendency to talk too much, and a manner that strikes many independents and women as smug or arrogant.
Rick Perry is not an able debater. In fact he seems to be bored with the entire exercise and I dont blame him for that. The process that currently passes for debate is a valueless mixture of antagonistic press conference and TV quiz show. Rick Perry is not a policy wonk. Neither was Ronald Reagan. Neither was Dwight Eisenhower. Neither was George Washington.
What Governor Perry does have is:
A demonstrated ability to win elections.
A demonstrated understanding of how to lead and govern.
A Reaganesque capacity to touch the mystic chords of memory that bind us together.
A large stockpile of cash.
A set of opponents who all have significant electoral problems of their own.
While being ahead is intuitively always better than being behind, the clear political fact is that polls in October-November-December, dont win elections in January and February. An Iowa State University poll published on November 18, 2003 showed Howard Dean at 29%, Dick Gephardt at 21%, John Kerry at 15%, and John Edwards at 8%. A Pew Research poll published on December 2, 2003 showed Dean at 26%, Gephardt at 22%, Kerry at 9%, and Edwards at 5%. (H/T nationalpolls.com)
The Democrats experience in 2004 is I think highly relevant as it was largely the mirror image of 2012. Eight years ago Democrats loathed George W. Bush just as conservatives today cant stomach Barack Obama. Like Obama now, Bush was widely seen as vulnerable and thus there was a wide open scrum for the Democrat nomination.
For all his money Mitt Romney has been unable to close the deal with Republican voters. For all his current polling success, Herman Cain still appears to be a long shot to stay the distance. For all of his smarts and ability Newt Gingrich retains major downside risks.
The flaws of his opponents, together with his own considerable skill and potential, leaves an opening the size of Texas for Governor Rick Perry.
People do not want slow talkers because when they are struggling to search for the words to say 75 percent of the people watching are giving the dunce clues,putting the words in the half wit's mouth. Even people with dementia say “hurry the hell up and spit it out, we are not getting any younger”. Slow talkers put people to sleep, and the attention span is zero.
Life isn’t fair.
But Perry isn’t going to play their game.
It's important to all of us. If I thought Perry wanted to open the border and give all who cross it voting rights and automatic welfare -- as I am certain Obama wants to do -- I would turn on him in a minute.
“Perry’s the one who want more ILLEGALS.”
Now that is just silly and false, too.
Nothing wrong with that. If Herman wins I won't cry.
The United States electorate would rather go to bed at night not worrying what crap their president has pulled on them than thinking how fast their president talks.
We don't want another "eloquent" speaker. (I never thought Obama was but apparently some people do).
I want someone who LOVES this country and believes that our best days are ahead for our children and their children.
Ft Hood Memorial Service.
Actually...yes he is.
OMG that is so good! He is terrific in that interview and I loved that he wouldn’t let them push him into a corner.
Is it your sincere belief that being fairly rude and sometimes obnoxious, in response to folks that don't like Perry, is going to bring those same folks to take a closer look at your candidate?
Are you really a mole working for the Romney campaign and trying to be so in-your-face about Perry that people will dislike Perry simply because you are pissing them off?
I swear that I thought the Palin-devoted did more to harm her on this forum than they did to promote her ... but you are really beginning to give them a run for their money!
You know it is a lie but you post it anyway because it fits your agenda.
It would be too bad if we choose a president based on his debating skills. Obama can't give a speech without a teleprompter.
Then ignore it—no problem.
Actually all the lies about Perry spouted here make me even a more avid fan of Perry. You must be very afraid that he will win over Cain.
Actually, every time you post a thread in a public forum, you are most definitely inviting folks to click on it and comment. Should you believe otherwise, maybe you can get the mods to lock all of your postings, so that they can be read and revered in 'silence'.
Perry/Cain would be fine with me, in either order. I prefer Cain or Bachmann to head the ticket, but after 24 years of RINOs being nominated, anything on the conservative side will be a relief. Even Newt.
I on’t know a soul who will vote for him in a primary. LOL
NO ONE has to click on these articles. How can they annoy you if you ignore them?
Did you see the film of Perry’s speech Sat. night in Iowa? It was excellent. http://theiowarepublican.com/2011/perry-regains-his-footing-at-iffc-event/
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