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Why Governor Perry is still likely to be nominated
Red State ^ | October 27, 2011 | barleycorn

Posted on 10/27/2011 11:05:28 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife

Numerous preemptive obituaries are being written for Governor Rick Perry’s campaign. These efforts are premature because they fail to understand and appreciate the fickle winds of political fortune.

Governor Perry has substantial political assets that make him a potent candidate and that will give him another chance to prove himself to Republican voters.

Each candidate brings their own set of positives and negatives to the game:

Mitt Romney has money to burn, establishment support, business experience, and passable debating skills. He also has a record far to the left of the majority of Republicans, a history of changing his position on major issues, and gives the impression that he will let you down when your back is turned.

Herman Cain has business experience, a high likability factor, and a fresh approach to conventional problems. He also has a propensity for confusing statements, no history of political success, and seems less vested in his own campaign than are his supporters.

Newt Gingrich has laser-like intelligence, a thorough understanding of policy choices, and excellent debating skills. He also has two ex-wives, a tendency to talk too much, and a manner that strikes many independents and women as smug or arrogant.

Rick Perry is not an able debater. In fact he seems to be bored with the entire exercise and I don’t blame him for that. The process that currently passes for “debate” is a valueless mixture of antagonistic press conference and TV quiz show. Rick Perry is not a policy wonk. Neither was Ronald Reagan. Neither was Dwight Eisenhower. Neither was George Washington.

What Governor Perry does have is:

A demonstrated ability to win elections.

A demonstrated understanding of how to lead and govern.

A Reaganesque capacity to touch the “mystic chords of memory” that bind us together.

A large stockpile of cash.

A set of opponents who all have significant electoral problems of their own.

While being ahead is intuitively always better than being behind, the clear political fact is that polls in October-November-December, don’t win elections in January and February. An Iowa State University poll published on November 18, 2003 showed Howard Dean at 29%, Dick Gephardt at 21%, John Kerry at 15%, and John Edwards at 8%. A Pew Research poll published on December 2, 2003 showed Dean at 26%, Gephardt at 22%, Kerry at 9%, and Edwards at 5%. (H/T nationalpolls.com)

The Democrat’s experience in 2004 is I think highly relevant as it was largely the mirror image of 2012. Eight years ago Democrats loathed George W. Bush just as conservatives today can’t stomach Barack Obama. Like Obama now, Bush was widely seen as vulnerable and thus there was a wide open scrum for the Democrat nomination.

For all his money Mitt Romney has been unable to close the deal with Republican voters. For all his current polling success, Herman Cain still appears to be a long shot to stay the distance. For all of his smarts and ability Newt Gingrich retains major downside risks.

The flaws of his opponents, together with his own considerable skill and potential, leaves an opening the size of Texas for Governor Rick Perry.


TOPICS: Government; Politics; Society
KEYWORDS: 0heartless0; campaigning; delusional; derangement; economy; gopprimary; perry2012; perryastroturfing
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To: RitaOK

Point of clarification. I will not vote for Obama but I certainly will not vote for Perry under any circumstances. I will write in whoever I damn well please.


161 posted on 10/27/2011 1:47:45 PM PDT by Abbeville Conservative (Sarah Palin, the only cure for the RINO virus.)
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To: Yosemitest
You do know that keeping illegals out of TX is the responsibility of the federal govt., don't you? Perry has pleaded with the feds over and over to seal the border but they won't do it.

Of course the truth is irrelevant to you.

162 posted on 10/27/2011 1:48:27 PM PDT by Conservativegreatgrandma
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To: FReepers; everyone; All
YES!

Donate Here!


163 posted on 10/27/2011 1:49:21 PM PDT by onyx (You're here on FR, so support it! Compiling New Sarah Ping List. Let me know if you want on it.)
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To: Electric Graffiti
Let's see your hate some more, what will your next photoshop be? One of we that are conservative favorites of all time the best president in my lifetime Ronald Reagan, I mean he did give amnesty after all so must hate him as well.

You obviously do not want the truth about Perry and what he has done about the border.

As far as Mitt Romney goes I agree he is a POS.

164 posted on 10/27/2011 1:50:21 PM PDT by Katarina (Rick Perry the Best man for President ! NEVER Romney! And no thank you Cain.)
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To: JustaDumbBlonde

I did not object to your commenting.

You were objecting to the posting of Perry articles, IIRC.

Of course pro and con opinions will be posted..and rebutted.

Such is the world of public forums.


165 posted on 10/27/2011 1:50:35 PM PDT by MEG33 (God Bless Our Military Men And Women)
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To: Katarina

Thanks Katarina.


166 posted on 10/27/2011 1:50:46 PM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife; miss marmelstein

CW keep the photos coming, they did not complain when awesome photos of Sarah were posted. WE true conservatives love the photos and Rick Perry and BOTH of his plans.


167 posted on 10/27/2011 1:53:01 PM PDT by Katarina (Rick Perry the Best man for President ! NEVER Romney! And no thank you Cain.)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

LOL now the lefties on here will attack Reagan since he was first a democrat. GREAT photo of Reagan.


168 posted on 10/27/2011 1:56:42 PM PDT by Katarina (Rick Perry the Best man for President ! NEVER Romney! And no thank you Cain.)
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To: McGavin999
The number of illegals in Texas is a result of the federal government not doing the job that is clearly spelled out in the Constitution.

The number of illegals fleeing Arizona and Alabama is the result of a governor and administration with with cajones actually trying to do the job which fedzilla refuses to do.

169 posted on 10/27/2011 1:57:48 PM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: Longbow1969
In my opinion, Perry is the only candidate in the race that can realistically stop Romney.

He'd better get busy if he's going to do that, he's running 4th in recent polls. He's got a long road to go if he's going to beat Romney. I don't think he has a chance. Cain's business background is really resonating with people.

I do agree he could possibly say something at any time that would ruin his campaign but I am praying that won't happen. He is charismatic and our only chance IMHO of beating Obama. I would also love to see Gingrich in there but I don't think he could beat Obama.

170 posted on 10/27/2011 2:00:01 PM PDT by ozarkgirl
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
A Reaganesque capacity to touch the “mystic chords of memory” that bind us together.

I'll believe it when I see it.

171 posted on 10/27/2011 2:02:04 PM PDT by x (Not wholly sarcastic. If I do see it, I will believe it.)
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To: Longbow1969
“In my opinion, Perry is the only candidate in the race that can realistically stop Romney. If Perry can't communicate better and run a sharper campaign, then I guess I am stuck supporting Newt because I'd have no other option.”

Eloquently put. I feel exactly the same way. If Perry doesn't pull it off, which I think he will, I'll go with the most logical choice and that will be Newt.

172 posted on 10/27/2011 2:03:49 PM PDT by FryingPan101 (Perry/Palin (Just dreamin'))
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
The other side of the issue of Perry's Pro Islam curriculum is here. You really should find a candidate you can trust, not that chameleon Perry.
173 posted on 10/27/2011 2:05:08 PM PDT by Yosemitest (It's simple, fight or die!)
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To: Conservativegreatgrandma
Yeah, right < /sarc>, that why Perry supports building a Border Fence?
Get a clue.
174 posted on 10/27/2011 2:07:13 PM PDT by Yosemitest (It's simple, fight or die!)
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To: Vigilanteman

The illegals fleeing Arizona had NOTHING to do with our Governor, they fled due to Russell Pierce and his leadership. Jan Brewer just took the credit. And still we can’t deport, we can only turn them over to the feds who promptly release them.


175 posted on 10/27/2011 2:09:31 PM PDT by McGavin999 ("Make what Americans buy, Buy what Americans make, and sell it to the world" Perry 2012)
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To: Yosemitest

“26 plus years in the military, I know a LIAR when I see one, and Perry is a LIAR.
Trust him at your own peril.”

I know them when I see them too.
Liar.


176 posted on 10/27/2011 2:13:59 PM PDT by FryingPan101 (Perry/Palin (Just dreamin'))
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To: Yosemitest

26 plus years in the military? Then you must know that Perry is the only military man running, and you must know that Marcus Luttrell is backing Perry. Surely you know who he is? You want to call him a Perrywinkle to his face? Of course there may be a bit of difference between what Marcus did in the military and what you did, right? Or were you also a Navy SEAL?


177 posted on 10/27/2011 2:15:24 PM PDT by McGavin999 ("Make what Americans buy, Buy what Americans make, and sell it to the world" Perry 2012)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
I have heard him talk and one or two speeches he did not sound like Elmer fudd. Every debate has been embarrassing, and laughing at your horrible performances is being tone deaf,lazy and foolish. Get some help,check out your ability to hear properly. He is not even making an effort to sound like he could find his butt with one hand.

I notice that half the time he (perry) sounds like George W Bush, and I believe the number one reason why Obamao is President is because Bush was so disliked. People are mad at themselves for foolishly voting against Bush when he was not even running,but at least Bush sounded pretty smart and lucid most of the time.

When Perry talks in these debates it makes people remember the sometimes cringe factor of George Bush. Making excuses for someone does not help them it only makes you look like a sycophant. It is more than obvious that his wife and his crony capitalist donors are pushing him.

I have been watching Texas freepers post for at least 10 years on what a worthless Governor he has been, and I believe they know the truth,and what has been going on, and do not wear rose colored glasses.

Who will you support when his chickens come home to roost and Mommy's dream of being first lady goes up in smoke?

178 posted on 10/27/2011 2:15:49 PM PDT by samantha (Sarah is our TEAple. leader for America the Beautiful...Go Herman Cain.)
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To: Katarina

The difference is is that Sarah had a wonderful charisma and beauty - a feminine beauty that, on occasion, could match any photo of the late Princess Diana. Little Ricky has the look of a big, dumb jock. I’m not fond of men who continually pose for photos. The Parade Magazine cover even turned on the fans to blow his hair and jacket backward (I don’t believe Sarah and Diana ever went for this old cliche) which was out of date in 1990.

This focus on so-called “male beauty” didn’t work for Dan Quayle (who at least had a natural humility about him) and it’s not going to work for the Governor of the Great State of Texas.


179 posted on 10/27/2011 2:16:33 PM PDT by miss marmelstein (Let's have a Cain Mutiny!)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Yeah, but who would want to use Nixon as an example.


180 posted on 10/27/2011 2:20:36 PM PDT by dforest
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