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Why Governor Perry is still likely to be nominated
Red State ^ | October 27, 2011 | barleycorn

Posted on 10/27/2011 11:05:28 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife

Numerous preemptive obituaries are being written for Governor Rick Perry’s campaign. These efforts are premature because they fail to understand and appreciate the fickle winds of political fortune.

Governor Perry has substantial political assets that make him a potent candidate and that will give him another chance to prove himself to Republican voters.

Each candidate brings their own set of positives and negatives to the game:

Mitt Romney has money to burn, establishment support, business experience, and passable debating skills. He also has a record far to the left of the majority of Republicans, a history of changing his position on major issues, and gives the impression that he will let you down when your back is turned.

Herman Cain has business experience, a high likability factor, and a fresh approach to conventional problems. He also has a propensity for confusing statements, no history of political success, and seems less vested in his own campaign than are his supporters.

Newt Gingrich has laser-like intelligence, a thorough understanding of policy choices, and excellent debating skills. He also has two ex-wives, a tendency to talk too much, and a manner that strikes many independents and women as smug or arrogant.

Rick Perry is not an able debater. In fact he seems to be bored with the entire exercise and I don’t blame him for that. The process that currently passes for “debate” is a valueless mixture of antagonistic press conference and TV quiz show. Rick Perry is not a policy wonk. Neither was Ronald Reagan. Neither was Dwight Eisenhower. Neither was George Washington.

What Governor Perry does have is:

A demonstrated ability to win elections.

A demonstrated understanding of how to lead and govern.

A Reaganesque capacity to touch the “mystic chords of memory” that bind us together.

A large stockpile of cash.

A set of opponents who all have significant electoral problems of their own.

While being ahead is intuitively always better than being behind, the clear political fact is that polls in October-November-December, don’t win elections in January and February. An Iowa State University poll published on November 18, 2003 showed Howard Dean at 29%, Dick Gephardt at 21%, John Kerry at 15%, and John Edwards at 8%. A Pew Research poll published on December 2, 2003 showed Dean at 26%, Gephardt at 22%, Kerry at 9%, and Edwards at 5%. (H/T

The Democrat’s experience in 2004 is I think highly relevant as it was largely the mirror image of 2012. Eight years ago Democrats loathed George W. Bush just as conservatives today can’t stomach Barack Obama. Like Obama now, Bush was widely seen as vulnerable and thus there was a wide open scrum for the Democrat nomination.

For all his money Mitt Romney has been unable to close the deal with Republican voters. For all his current polling success, Herman Cain still appears to be a long shot to stay the distance. For all of his smarts and ability Newt Gingrich retains major downside risks.

The flaws of his opponents, together with his own considerable skill and potential, leaves an opening the size of Texas for Governor Rick Perry.

TOPICS: Government; Politics; Society
KEYWORDS: 0heartless0; campaigning; delusional; derangement; economy; gopprimary; perry2012; perryastroturfing
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And for all you naysayers, complainers, and those
who can donate but won't for whatever petty reason,
click here to not donate with gusto!

181 posted on 10/27/2011 2:25:29 PM PDT by TheOldLady (FReepmail me to get ON or OFF the ZOT LIGHTNING ping list)
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To: Irish Eyes

Yeah, my group believes in US sovereignty and doesn’t believe in leaders using executive orders to force vaccines on the innocent because we know better than they do and because we get money and donations from drug companies. LOL

Perry is a crony capitalist and he will never be able to go after Obama for doing what he has no problem doing. Perry is lethal.

Get with it. Will ya?

182 posted on 10/27/2011 2:27:29 PM PDT by dforest
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To: trumandogz
Interesting to see Rick Perry reaching out to others as Rick Perry now stands with Sheila Jackson Lee in her opposition of Confederate licensee plates in Texas.

The Confederacy was run by democrats. Said democrats started a war against America that resulted in the dealths of over 600,000 people. Why in the world would Perry want to honor that flag?

But, it's your full right to honor what the democrats did in their war against the United States of America, and their assasination of a US President.

183 posted on 10/27/2011 2:29:12 PM PDT by GOPyouth ("We're buying shrimp, guys. Come on." - Dear Leader)
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To: Conservativegreatgrandma
Give me just one shred of evidence that this is true.
Everything Perry does supports ILLEGAL coming through the porous border.
He talks a bunch of B.S. and does everything he can to prevent a Border Fence being built along the ENTIRE Border.

184 posted on 10/27/2011 2:29:28 PM PDT by Yosemitest (It's simple, fight or die!)
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To: Conservativegreatgrandma

Nope; I won’t avoid these threads anymore than anti-Cainites will avoid those threads. I’m bored and tired of the stupid photos of the governor looking like he’s searching his mind for a thought - and failing miserably.

Some of us just don’t find him attractive.

185 posted on 10/27/2011 2:29:46 PM PDT by miss marmelstein (Let's have a Cain Mutiny!)
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To: McGavin999

Perry isn’t much different than Kerry as far as the military is concerned.

186 posted on 10/27/2011 2:31:07 PM PDT by Yosemitest (It's simple, fight or die!)
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To: McGavin999

Perry isn’t much different than Kerry as far as the military is concerned.

187 posted on 10/27/2011 2:31:25 PM PDT by Yosemitest (It's simple, fight or die!)
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To: Yosemitest

Right. You served with him?

188 posted on 10/27/2011 2:33:39 PM PDT by McGavin999 ("Make what Americans buy, Buy what Americans make, and sell it to the world" Perry 2012)
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To: wolfcreek
Both Sheila Jackson Lee and Rick Perry want to prevent the Sons of Confederate Veterans from raising money.

Do you agree with Shelia Jackson Lee on the Confederate license plate issue?

189 posted on 10/27/2011 2:43:44 PM PDT by trumandogz (In Rick Perry's Nanny State, the state will drive your kids to the dentist at tax payer expense)
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To: miss marmelstein
The most attractive feature of a man is his mind. When one looks into Perry's eyes or listens to him struggling to express his thoughts one is shocked and disappointed.

I've heard from some posters that he's a very nice person, but when I look at him, I see a man who simply does not measure up to what is required of a president.

190 posted on 10/27/2011 2:45:41 PM PDT by trisham (Zen is not easy. It takes effort to attain nothingness. And then what do you have? Bupkis.)
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To: wolfcreek
Cain doesn’t like the debate formats either.

Cain has no problem engaging in them though, and not only that, he's willing to go out and tangle with the liberal media, something Perry has been shy about doing.

Plus, Perry was offered a chance to debate Romney one-on-one without any moderators and only a time limit. He has not accepted. Cain and Gingrich on the other hand, readily accepted and will be debating one another next weekend.
191 posted on 10/27/2011 2:52:07 PM PDT by af_vet_rr
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To: Katarina

Governor Almost Wasn't--After years on ranch, Perry saw climate was right for politics

Boy's Life--Rick Perry

Rick Perry: the Paint Creek boy who would be king

192 posted on 10/27/2011 2:52:07 PM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: McGavin999
Perry's military service: Doesn't say very much does it.
An assignment to fly C-130s say he didn't finish very high in flight school.
I won't hit him too much as a pilot, but all of my military experience is air traffic control, most of it as control tower watch supervisor.
I'm very familiar with some of the greatest Supervisors of Flying and WIZOs in the military.
Perry didn't come up much in my military career, hence he wasn't noticed as a pilot.

Now, what's Perry done for the military?

And you sill support that pretender Perry?
193 posted on 10/27/2011 2:52:15 PM PDT by Yosemitest (It's simple, fight or die!)
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To: Yosemitest
p> Texas Marines

Gov. Rick Perry participates in ceremonies at Camp Mabry to redesignate the 49th Armored Division as the 36th Infantry Division. The former 49th Armored Division, which consists of approximately 12,000 soldiers, makes up almost two-thirds of the Texas National Guard. The division's redesignation as the 36th Infantry Division is part of the Texas Army National Guard's transition from a heavy armored force to a more versatile infantry force.

Texas Gov. Perry receives a warm greeting from Ghazni Provincial Governor Dr. Usman Usmani at the flight line minutes after landing at Forward Operating Base Ghazni by UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter. Perry led a delegation of four other governors

Lt. Col. Thomas J. Kleis (R) briefs Texas Gov. Rick Perry (C) as Command Sgt. Maj. Peter P.A. Collins (L) listens on the intelligence gathering successes the 636th Military Intelligence Battalion has achieved during their last six months of duty

Texas Gov. Rick Perry stands with Texas service members from the 636th Military Intelligence Battalion, 71st Battlefield Surveillance Brigade and the 136th Military Police Battalion on July 20th under the Texas flag he presented to the 636th.

194 posted on 10/27/2011 2:53:49 PM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: trisham

I’ve never met a politician who I haven’t thought was a nice guy - and that includes my former governor, Jim McGreevey, who sweetly kissed my best friend on the cheek one week before announcing he was a “gay American.” (My best friend is a lady!) So, I’m pretty cynical about that.

Mr. Perry, nice guy or not, is simply not up to the job and it seems that the majority of freepers have figured that out. But, like all pols, he will do what he has to do, until he runs out of money.

195 posted on 10/27/2011 2:54:13 PM PDT by miss marmelstein (Let's have a Cain Mutiny!)
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To: Yosemitest

196 posted on 10/27/2011 2:54:20 PM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Longbow1969
Personally, I think Cain has been getting the most glowing press - at least from the more conservative media.

Except for many in the media trying to make him out to only be a pizza guy and ignoring everything else about him.

I think Cain is a nice guy, but I believe he'd get crushed if he were our nominee against Obama.

You think that if Cain got the nomination, that Republicans wouldn't vote for him?

With the exception of Romney, any other Republican, even Ron Paul, can beat Obama. Any.
197 posted on 10/27/2011 2:55:27 PM PDT by af_vet_rr
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To: MEG33
"You were objecting to the posting of Perry articles, IIRC."

You don't recall correctly. I was asking the original poster questions as to why she continuously posts threads and antagonizes the people who comment negatively. In fact, they were sincere questions and I'd like to read sincere answers.

"Such is the world of public forums."

You are soooo clever and original. High five.

198 posted on 10/27/2011 2:55:41 PM PDT by JustaDumbBlonde (Don't wish doom on your enemies. Plan it.)
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To: Yosemitest
Rick Perry Signs Law Exempting Disabled Veterans from Property Taxes -- and more (nice picture too)

At that link there also is a good video, "Veterans for Rick Perry."

199 posted on 10/27/2011 2:56:10 PM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Yosemitest
Misfire: Romney Ad Targets Rick Perry's Jobs Record "I think it's safe to say the Romney campaign is going for the kill with its latest attack on Rick Perry. The former Massachusetts Governor has already gotten a fair amount of mileage out of attacking his Texan rival from the left on Social Security, and from the right on immigration, but this new spot strikes at the heart of the Perry campaign's raison detre -- jobs, jobs, jobs:

The Facts --Mitt Romney's political ad


The spot's most striking image is a tumbleweed blowing along a deserted Texas highway. That's rich. It's intended to create the impression that Rick Perry's Texas is something of a depressed ghost town. Nothing could be further from the truth. Since the recession began, desperate job seekers have flocked to Texas at a clip of roughly 1,000 people per day. And they're finding work, too. Despite a huge population influx and a bruising national recession, Texas' unemployment rate remains below the national average. How remarkable has the Lone Star State's economic performance been? Read this Political Math analysis (written by a self-professed non Perry supporter), and marvel. One telling data point:

200 posted on 10/27/2011 2:58:26 PM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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