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Why Governor Perry is still likely to be nominated
Red State ^ | October 27, 2011 | barleycorn

Posted on 10/27/2011 11:05:28 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife

Numerous preemptive obituaries are being written for Governor Rick Perry’s campaign. These efforts are premature because they fail to understand and appreciate the fickle winds of political fortune.

Governor Perry has substantial political assets that make him a potent candidate and that will give him another chance to prove himself to Republican voters.

Each candidate brings their own set of positives and negatives to the game:

Mitt Romney has money to burn, establishment support, business experience, and passable debating skills. He also has a record far to the left of the majority of Republicans, a history of changing his position on major issues, and gives the impression that he will let you down when your back is turned.

Herman Cain has business experience, a high likability factor, and a fresh approach to conventional problems. He also has a propensity for confusing statements, no history of political success, and seems less vested in his own campaign than are his supporters.

Newt Gingrich has laser-like intelligence, a thorough understanding of policy choices, and excellent debating skills. He also has two ex-wives, a tendency to talk too much, and a manner that strikes many independents and women as smug or arrogant.

Rick Perry is not an able debater. In fact he seems to be bored with the entire exercise and I don’t blame him for that. The process that currently passes for “debate” is a valueless mixture of antagonistic press conference and TV quiz show. Rick Perry is not a policy wonk. Neither was Ronald Reagan. Neither was Dwight Eisenhower. Neither was George Washington.

What Governor Perry does have is:

A demonstrated ability to win elections.

A demonstrated understanding of how to lead and govern.

A Reaganesque capacity to touch the “mystic chords of memory” that bind us together.

A large stockpile of cash.

A set of opponents who all have significant electoral problems of their own.

While being ahead is intuitively always better than being behind, the clear political fact is that polls in October-November-December, don’t win elections in January and February. An Iowa State University poll published on November 18, 2003 showed Howard Dean at 29%, Dick Gephardt at 21%, John Kerry at 15%, and John Edwards at 8%. A Pew Research poll published on December 2, 2003 showed Dean at 26%, Gephardt at 22%, Kerry at 9%, and Edwards at 5%. (H/T nationalpolls.com)

The Democrat’s experience in 2004 is I think highly relevant as it was largely the mirror image of 2012. Eight years ago Democrats loathed George W. Bush just as conservatives today can’t stomach Barack Obama. Like Obama now, Bush was widely seen as vulnerable and thus there was a wide open scrum for the Democrat nomination.

For all his money Mitt Romney has been unable to close the deal with Republican voters. For all his current polling success, Herman Cain still appears to be a long shot to stay the distance. For all of his smarts and ability Newt Gingrich retains major downside risks.

The flaws of his opponents, together with his own considerable skill and potential, leaves an opening the size of Texas for Governor Rick Perry.


TOPICS: Government; Politics; Society
KEYWORDS: 0heartless0; campaigning; delusional; derangement; economy; gopprimary; perry2012; perryastroturfing
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

“Gov. Rick Perry told a Florida television station today that he opposes the creation of a Confederate license plate in Texas.”

http://www.statesman.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/austin/politics/entries/2011/10/26/perry_says_he_opposes_confeder.html

“Sheila Jackson Lee Accuses Rick Perry Of ‘Fooling Around’ On Confederate Flag License Plate Issue”

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/25/rick-perry-confederate-flag-license-plate-texas_n_1030698.html

How about that?

Shelia Jackson Lee demands that Rick Perry speak out against the Texas Sons of Confederate Veterans license plates and Rick Perry does exactly what he is told!

Rick Perry stands with Sheila Jackson Lee.


41 posted on 10/27/2011 11:50:51 AM PDT by trumandogz (In Rick Perry's Nanny State, the state will drive your kids to the dentist at tax payer expense)
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To: NavyCanDo

My favorite was:

Interviewer: Do you believe Obama was born in the USA?

Perry: I don’t know. He never saw my birth certificate.


42 posted on 10/27/2011 11:51:32 AM PDT by miss marmelstein (Let's have a Cain Mutiny!)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife; shield; org.whodat; cripplecreek; TADSLOS; BobL; raybbr; truthfreedom; ...
Still pinging shield for help? lol!

La Raza Rick Perry is the worst Texas has had to offer in decades. It's why he has dropped like a rock and continues to fall. Heck, at this rate he'll pass Newt and Paul on his way down within days. lol!


43 posted on 10/27/2011 11:54:30 AM PDT by South40 (Heartless since 1957)
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To: NavyCanDo
Mike Huckabee won Iowa in 2008 so his supporters did something right.

By the way, a sweater vest wearing southern preacher with a charming disposition had relentless spammers? Reminds me of another sweater vest wearing southern preacher with a charming disposition running for office this year.

44 posted on 10/27/2011 11:54:30 AM PDT by normy (Don't take it personally, just take it seriously.)
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To: miss marmelstein

How very profound.


45 posted on 10/27/2011 11:55:15 AM PDT by MEG33 (God Bless Our Military Men And Women)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

LOL! The wails.


46 posted on 10/27/2011 11:55:24 AM PDT by FryingPan101 (Perry/Palin (Just dreamin'))
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To: shield; Longbow1969
Longbow1969 You sound exactly like the left when Ronald Reagan ran and won the Presidency.

When Reagan was candidate for CA governor. The media always called him dumb and lazy. The people knew better.

47 posted on 10/27/2011 11:56:22 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: trumandogz
Rick Perry stands with Sheila Jackson Lee.

On the education front they differ:

Gov. Rick Perry said "no" to competing in "Race to the Top." Texas Knows Best How to Educate Our Students

But Rep. Shelia Jackson-Lee and her Democratic Party wanted Perry's signature so the "money would flow to our schools within days."

Gov. Perry sued for Texas' money (without Washington telling us how to spend it) -- And won! Promise Kept.

Mona Charen: NRO Beware those 'radical' ideas -- Good opinion piece on Perry and education – Reagan simplicity that works

48 posted on 10/27/2011 11:59:18 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
Thanks for posting these great pics. What a beautiful family. It's a great contrast to the ugly mockery of the Cainiacs who jump every Perry thread.

What they don't know is many people read threads without posting. Many undecided Freepers so when they see your pictures and contrast them with the ugliness of the Cainiacs, it only helps.

I will be driving to Iowa as a volunteer for Perry in January, very excited to campaign for the next President of the United States.

49 posted on 10/27/2011 12:01:23 PM PDT by normy (Don't take it personally, just take it seriously.)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

I didn’t know Harold Camping was right. He just got it on the wrong days. Perry is the messiah and Red State is the new bible.


50 posted on 10/27/2011 12:01:23 PM PDT by righttackle44 (I may not be much, but I raised a U.S. Marine.)
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To: Electric Graffiti
So by that picture your saying Perry is going to win the nomination?

By the way George Will already established that Romney was our Michael Dukakis.

51 posted on 10/27/2011 12:02:56 PM PDT by normy (Don't take it personally, just take it seriously.)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

We can all look forward to Sheila Jackson Lee telling Rick Perry how to stand on the issues.

Sheila tells Rick to be against the Confederate licensee plates and Rick comlies with her order.

Sheila Jackson Lee favors in-state tuition for illegal aliens and Rick sign the legislation.

I think we found Perry’s Puppet Master and it is Shelia Jackson Lee.


52 posted on 10/27/2011 12:05:07 PM PDT by trumandogz (In Rick Perry's Nanny State, the state will drive your kids to the dentist at tax payer expense)
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To: Retired Greyhound

Thank you for your political/campaign posting.

We have no way of knowing what will happen in the months ahead but Perry’s preparing.


53 posted on 10/27/2011 12:05:28 PM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Barleycorn thinks Newt is off-putting to women and independents, but Perry isn’t?

Also, IMO Newt’s two exes is no more challenging than Reagan’s one was 32 years ago.

Sure, he’s a flawed candidate, like all of them, but he’s far the more impressive candidate than Goodhair is.


54 posted on 10/27/2011 12:06:22 PM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Keep spamming with the Perry threads. Its making people sick of him. Congrats.


55 posted on 10/27/2011 12:07:00 PM PDT by Michael Barnes (Obamaa+ Downgrade)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Rick Perry could double his support in each (of the two) month(s) until the first votes are cast and not reach first place in most polls. He certainly is not touching many chords with primary voters he continues to offend both in and outside of debates. He needs to stop the downward trend he continues to have in polls before many will even consider him again. A few apologies would not hurt either.


56 posted on 10/27/2011 12:07:23 PM PDT by Ingtar
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To: trumandogz
....I think we found Perry’s Puppet Master and it is Shelia Jackson Lee.

Yes. Yes. Perry's Sheila's puppet. Too funny. You should go on Leno.

57 posted on 10/27/2011 12:08:34 PM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
You know I'm no perrywinkle but I love Marcus Luttrell. What a great American, I'm impressed that he is backing perry.


58 posted on 10/27/2011 12:09:45 PM PDT by USS Alaska (Nuke the Terrorists Savages)
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Comment #59 Removed by Moderator

To: Cincinatus' Wife

Teddy Kennedy has a better chance at the GOP nomination than Rick Perry.


60 posted on 10/27/2011 12:10:04 PM PDT by trumandogz (In Rick Perry's Nanny State, the state will drive your kids to the dentist at tax payer expense)
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