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First Thoughts: Romney's Clear Path [Predicts Race Over By Feb.1st]
MSNBC ^ | November 11, 2011 | Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Brooke Brower

Posted on 11/11/2011 9:53:10 AM PST by Steelfish

First Thoughts: Romney's Clear Path

By NBC’s Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Brooke Brower

*** Romney’s clear path: After Herman Cain’s defiant news conference on Tuesday and after Rick Perry’s brain freeze at Wednesday night’s CNBC debate, Mitt Romney’s path to the GOP presidential nomination is now WIDE open.

In fact, not since Bob Dole in 1996 has a candidate been such a clear front-runner right before the primaries and caucuses begin. The ’96 comparison is also instructive: Dole still lost New Hampshire to Pat Buchanan.

What this all means: While Romney looks to be on his way to the nomination -- and the Obama campaign and the DNC have been under that impression for months -- we’re still likely to have plenty of twists and turns ahead. And keep this in mind: If Romney doesn’t win either Iowa or South Carolina, there’s a much greater chance of a long primary season, because not winning EITHER early state dominated by conservatives will be the BIG sign that Romney hasn’t sealed the deal with heart and soul of the Republican electorate.

But as things stand right now, Romney’s also very capable of winning an Iowa or South Carolina. And if he does, and couples it with wins in BOTH New Hampshire and Florida, this race will be over by Feb. 1.

(Excerpt) Read more at firstread.msnbc.msn.com ...


TOPICS: Politics
KEYWORDS: delusional; milt; msm4romney; nbc4backstabber; nbc4chameleon; nbc4dncplant; nbc4loserromney; nbc4rinoromney; nbc4romney; notaxes4ge; rinoromney; sharia4romney; todd4romney

1 posted on 11/11/2011 9:53:11 AM PST by Steelfish
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To: Steelfish
Sure just ignore all fact to publish what you want to belives MSNBC.

Romney finishes 1st ONLY in NH so of course the path is OPEN to him. Never mind his fading polling position in the early states other then NH

2 posted on 11/11/2011 9:55:41 AM PST by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: Steelfish

Hmm. A “front runner” who isn’t leading in one of the last two national polls; who isn’t leading on RCP’s composite poll; who isn’t leading (isn’t even second) in the latest SC poll. . . . In short, not a frontrunner.


3 posted on 11/11/2011 9:56:03 AM PST by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually." (Hendrix))
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To: LS

The latest RCP poll from Iowa is very concerning for Cain, however. Newt is surging though as well.


4 posted on 11/11/2011 9:57:38 AM PST by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: Steelfish
Has MSNBC already decided how many electoral votes Romney will lose by in the general election?
5 posted on 11/11/2011 9:57:54 AM PST by KarlInOhio (Herman Cain: possibly the escapee most dangerous to the Democrats since Frederick Douglass.)
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To: Steelfish

Don’t be surprised to learn a revers Operation Chaos will be in effect through the Republican Primaries in order to get Romney as the nominee. That’s who Obama wants to run against, and they’ll get dems posing as pubs in primaries to get him the nomination. Wait and see.


6 posted on 11/11/2011 9:58:08 AM PST by antonico
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To: MNJohnnie

Mitt won’t get a majority in NH..


7 posted on 11/11/2011 9:58:08 AM PST by ken5050 (Cain/Gingrich 2012!!! because sharing a couch with Pelosi is NOT the same as sharing a bed with her)
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To: LS

If Cain wins in Iowa they will say “Iowa doesn’t matter”. But if Romney wins in NH, which he probably will, you’ll see them saying “NH matters, Romney is the candidate!”


8 posted on 11/11/2011 9:58:31 AM PST by bigdirty
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To: Steelfish

http://race42012.com/2011/11/11/herman-cain-web-ad-veterans-day-tribute/


9 posted on 11/11/2011 10:01:14 AM PST by CainConservative
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To: Steelfish

Sorry lefties - Romney is NOT going to break any more than 20% of Republicans outside of New England.

We don’t want Obama vs Obama Jr.


10 posted on 11/11/2011 10:01:38 AM PST by struggle
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To: MNJohnnie

How do you have a clear path when you can never break the 30% barrier?


11 posted on 11/11/2011 10:03:24 AM PST by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: Steelfish

The purpose of the primary season is to give the base the illusion that they have some say in picking the candidate.


12 posted on 11/11/2011 10:04:22 AM PST by DManA
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To: rwfromkansas
???

Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus RCP Average Polling Data

Poll Date Sample Cain Romney Paul Gingrich Perry Bachmann Santorum Huntsman Spread

RCP Average 10/19 - 11/8 -- 23.8 21.5 11.3 10.3 8.3 6.8 3.5 1.3 Cain +2.3

Insider Advantage 11/8 - 11/8 436 LV 23 19 11 15 9 5 3 -- Cain +4

Des Moines Register 10/23 - 10/26 400 LV 23 22 12 7 7 8 5 1 Cain +1

CNN/Time 10/20 - 10/25 405 RV 21 24 12 10 10 6 2 1 Romney +3

Rasmussen Reports 10/19 - 10/19 800 LV 28 21 10 9 7 8 4 2 Cain +7

13 posted on 11/11/2011 10:08:16 AM PST by CainConservative
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To: CainConservative

So the race is between Perry avg 8% and Romney is behind in all but one poll? Is that what the MSM is saying? Got it.


14 posted on 11/11/2011 10:12:21 AM PST by frogjerk (America: Innocent until accused or considered being accused by an anonymous party)
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To: Vigilanteman
1) Winner-take-all primaries, such as Florida in 2008, where McCain only got 30% of the vote split 8 ways, but got 100% of the delegates;

2) Open primaries where Democrats can cross over and vote for the Republican candidate they would most like to run against.

The solution is easy: no winner-take-all primaries, and no Democrats voting to sabotage Republican primaries.

15 posted on 11/11/2011 10:13:20 AM PST by wildandcrazyrussian
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To: Steelfish

If these a-holes all want Romney, what does that tell you?


16 posted on 11/11/2011 10:15:13 AM PST by anoldafvet (Sarah, you broke a lot of our hearts but we still love you.)
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To: rwfromkansas
Concerning for Cain? Who leads Newt by 8. Cain who just finished raising $1.26 million for his Iowa Fund this week?

Think your concern is misplaced

17 posted on 11/11/2011 10:16:46 AM PST by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: Steelfish

Wishful thinking, but wanting it to be so doesn’t make it so, and it isn’t going to be easy sailing for Romney.


18 posted on 11/11/2011 10:25:22 AM PST by pallis
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To: DManA
-- The purpose of the primary season is to give the base the illusion that they have some say in picking the candidate. --

Pretty much. A two party system is a tool of and for the elites. Both parties will milk all they can from the people on the plantation. The primary season is supposedly a substitute for a healthy multi-party system.

This same two party "free election" system is an export product of the US State Department, which sets up cronies in foreign lands under a similar "give the people the illusion they are in control of their government" game.

I don;t believe there is a way to break the charade. The public is either bought off / invested, or scared of personal independence.

19 posted on 11/11/2011 10:26:14 AM PST by Cboldt
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To: Steelfish; Swordmaker
More prognosticatations from experts in the field:

In 1997, shortly after Mr. Jobs returned to Apple, the company he helped start in 1976, Dell's founder and chairman, Michael S. Dell, was asked at a technology conference what might be done to fix Apple, then deeply troubled financially.

"What would I do?" Mr. Dell said to an audience of several thousand information technology managers. "I'd shut it down and give the money back to the shareholders."

20 posted on 11/11/2011 10:26:55 AM PST by Dr. Sivana (May Mitt Romney be the Mo Udall of 2012.)
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To: MNJohnnie

Does everyone remember the year that Pat Buchanan won the Republican nomination for president? You don’t? Well, in 1992 he won the New Hampshire primary.


21 posted on 11/11/2011 10:27:30 AM PST by murron (Proud Mom of a Marine Vet)
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To: MNJohnnie
Never mind his fading polling position in the early states other then NH

He might do okay in Nevada as well. (Mormons overwhelmingly support Romney)
22 posted on 11/11/2011 10:28:48 AM PST by Dr. Sivana (May Mitt Romney be the Mo Udall of 2012.)
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To: murron
Does everyone remember the year that Pat Buchanan won the Republican nomination for president? You don’t? Well, in 1992 he won the New Hampshire primary.

Actually, he pulled 38% against George the Elder in '92. He beat Dole in '96.
23 posted on 11/11/2011 10:29:40 AM PST by Dr. Sivana (May Mitt Romney be the Mo Udall of 2012.)
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To: Vigilanteman

As some of the lower tier candidates drop out, I don’t think that their support will go to Romney. (well, maybe Huntsman’s may). I think most will go to Cain and Newt.


24 posted on 11/11/2011 10:30:28 AM PST by murron (Proud Mom of a Marine Vet)
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To: wildandcrazyrussian
1) Winner-take-all primaries, such as Florida in 2008, where McCain only got 30% of the vote split 8 ways, but got 100% of the delegates;

Early primaries like Florida (ESPECIALLY FL) have to use proportional allocation per Republican rule change.
25 posted on 11/11/2011 10:30:53 AM PST by Dr. Sivana (May Mitt Romney be the Mo Udall of 2012.)
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To: murron

All the more reason why some of the 1%ers should drop out. They are only kidding themselves if they think they even have a chance.


26 posted on 11/11/2011 10:38:52 AM PST by Netizen (Path to citizenship = Scamnesty. If you give it away, more will come. Who's pilfering your wallet?)
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To: Steelfish

MSDNC pissing into the wind again.


27 posted on 11/11/2011 10:50:52 AM PST by Buckeye Battle Cry (Mittt Romney - he lacks the courage of his absence of convictions.)
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To: rwfromkansas

There will probably be some fall off occur after the press conference Cain attended. But when people see how little fall off, they can gather their courage and get back in the battle against the media.

I am wondering now if that is what Cain represents, the icon for the media battle, and less of the qualified candidate. I don’t know yet. Monday’s numbers will surely offer a clearer picture and Rasmussen will be bankable, no matter which way it goes, or who likes it or not.


28 posted on 11/11/2011 11:08:05 AM PST by RitaOK (Texas. Exhibit A for Rick, who needs to pound the fiction flackers back into the Stone Age.)
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To: Netizen
All the more reason why some of the 1%ers should drop out. They are only kidding themselves if they think they even have a chance.

Some might be positioning themselves for VP. Others might want to get a practice run in for '16 or '20.
29 posted on 11/11/2011 12:00:15 PM PST by Dr. Sivana (May Mitt Romney be the Mo Udall of 2012.)
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To: MNJohnnie

The poll says 4 right?


30 posted on 11/11/2011 1:42:56 PM PST by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: Steelfish

Let me add my thoughts to that article.

Bwahahahahahahahahah!!


31 posted on 11/11/2011 1:54:02 PM PST by CynicalBear
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To: Steelfish

They would love to see us surrender, ain’t no way!


32 posted on 11/11/2011 2:26:26 PM PST by SWAMPSNIPER (The Second Amendment, a Matter of Fact, Not a Matter of Opinion)
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To: Dr. Sivana
Some might be positioning themselves for VP. Others might want to get a practice run in for '16 or '20.

Siphoning votes from the leader is not a good way to be added to a short list for VP. If you can't get over 5% mow, you are unlikely to do much better next time around. Doesn't they can't, but unlikely. There is a reason they aren't connecting with voters.

33 posted on 11/11/2011 7:31:08 PM PST by Netizen (Path to citizenship = Scamnesty. If you give it away, more will come. Who's pilfering your wallet?)
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