Skip to comments.First Thoughts: Romney's Clear Path [Predicts Race Over By Feb.1st]
Posted on 11/11/2011 9:53:10 AM PST by Steelfish
First Thoughts: Romney's Clear Path
By NBCs Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Brooke Brower
*** Romneys clear path: After Herman Cains defiant news conference on Tuesday and after Rick Perrys brain freeze at Wednesday nights CNBC debate, Mitt Romneys path to the GOP presidential nomination is now WIDE open.
In fact, not since Bob Dole in 1996 has a candidate been such a clear front-runner right before the primaries and caucuses begin. The 96 comparison is also instructive: Dole still lost New Hampshire to Pat Buchanan.
What this all means: While Romney looks to be on his way to the nomination -- and the Obama campaign and the DNC have been under that impression for months -- were still likely to have plenty of twists and turns ahead. And keep this in mind: If Romney doesnt win either Iowa or South Carolina, theres a much greater chance of a long primary season, because not winning EITHER early state dominated by conservatives will be the BIG sign that Romney hasnt sealed the deal with heart and soul of the Republican electorate.
But as things stand right now, Romneys also very capable of winning an Iowa or South Carolina. And if he does, and couples it with wins in BOTH New Hampshire and Florida, this race will be over by Feb. 1.
(Excerpt) Read more at firstread.msnbc.msn.com ...
Romney finishes 1st ONLY in NH so of course the path is OPEN to him. Never mind his fading polling position in the early states other then NH
Hmm. A “front runner” who isn’t leading in one of the last two national polls; who isn’t leading on RCP’s composite poll; who isn’t leading (isn’t even second) in the latest SC poll. . . . In short, not a frontrunner.
The latest RCP poll from Iowa is very concerning for Cain, however. Newt is surging though as well.
Don’t be surprised to learn a revers Operation Chaos will be in effect through the Republican Primaries in order to get Romney as the nominee. That’s who Obama wants to run against, and they’ll get dems posing as pubs in primaries to get him the nomination. Wait and see.
Mitt won’t get a majority in NH..
If Cain wins in Iowa they will say “Iowa doesn’t matter”. But if Romney wins in NH, which he probably will, you’ll see them saying “NH matters, Romney is the candidate!”
Sorry lefties - Romney is NOT going to break any more than 20% of Republicans outside of New England.
We don’t want Obama vs Obama Jr.
How do you have a clear path when you can never break the 30% barrier?
The purpose of the primary season is to give the base the illusion that they have some say in picking the candidate.
Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus RCP Average Polling Data
Poll Date Sample Cain Romney Paul Gingrich Perry Bachmann Santorum Huntsman Spread
RCP Average 10/19 - 11/8 -- 23.8 21.5 11.3 10.3 8.3 6.8 3.5 1.3 Cain +2.3
Insider Advantage 11/8 - 11/8 436 LV 23 19 11 15 9 5 3 -- Cain +4
Des Moines Register 10/23 - 10/26 400 LV 23 22 12 7 7 8 5 1 Cain +1
CNN/Time 10/20 - 10/25 405 RV 21 24 12 10 10 6 2 1 Romney +3
Rasmussen Reports 10/19 - 10/19 800 LV 28 21 10 9 7 8 4 2 Cain +7
So the race is between Perry avg 8% and Romney is behind in all but one poll? Is that what the MSM is saying? Got it.
2) Open primaries where Democrats can cross over and vote for the Republican candidate they would most like to run against.
The solution is easy: no winner-take-all primaries, and no Democrats voting to sabotage Republican primaries.
If these a-holes all want Romney, what does that tell you?
Think your concern is misplaced
Wishful thinking, but wanting it to be so doesn’t make it so, and it isn’t going to be easy sailing for Romney.
Pretty much. A two party system is a tool of and for the elites. Both parties will milk all they can from the people on the plantation. The primary season is supposedly a substitute for a healthy multi-party system.
This same two party "free election" system is an export product of the US State Department, which sets up cronies in foreign lands under a similar "give the people the illusion they are in control of their government" game.
I don;t believe there is a way to break the charade. The public is either bought off / invested, or scared of personal independence.
Does everyone remember the year that Pat Buchanan won the Republican nomination for president? You don’t? Well, in 1992 he won the New Hampshire primary.
As some of the lower tier candidates drop out, I don’t think that their support will go to Romney. (well, maybe Huntsman’s may). I think most will go to Cain and Newt.
All the more reason why some of the 1%ers should drop out. They are only kidding themselves if they think they even have a chance.
MSDNC pissing into the wind again.
There will probably be some fall off occur after the press conference Cain attended. But when people see how little fall off, they can gather their courage and get back in the battle against the media.
I am wondering now if that is what Cain represents, the icon for the media battle, and less of the qualified candidate. I don’t know yet. Monday’s numbers will surely offer a clearer picture and Rasmussen will be bankable, no matter which way it goes, or who likes it or not.
The poll says 4 right?
Let me add my thoughts to that article.
They would love to see us surrender, ain’t no way!
Siphoning votes from the leader is not a good way to be added to a short list for VP. If you can't get over 5% mow, you are unlikely to do much better next time around. Doesn't they can't, but unlikely. There is a reason they aren't connecting with voters.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.