First Thoughts: Romney's Clear Path [Predicts Race Over By Feb.1st]

MSNBC ^ | November 11, 2011 | Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Brooke Brower

[Steelfish]

First Thoughts: Romney's Clear Path

By NBC’s Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Brooke Brower

*** Romney’s clear path: After Herman Cain’s defiant news conference on Tuesday and after Rick Perry’s brain freeze at Wednesday night’s CNBC debate, Mitt Romney’s path to the GOP presidential nomination is now WIDE open.

In fact, not since Bob Dole in 1996 has a candidate been such a clear front-runner right before the primaries and caucuses begin. The ’96 comparison is also instructive: Dole still lost New Hampshire to Pat Buchanan.

What this all means: While Romney looks to be on his way to the nomination -- and the Obama campaign and the DNC have been under that impression for months -- we’re still likely to have plenty of twists and turns ahead. And keep this in mind: If Romney doesn’t win either Iowa or South Carolina, there’s a much greater chance of a long primary season, because not winning EITHER early state dominated by conservatives will be the BIG sign that Romney hasn’t sealed the deal with heart and soul of the Republican electorate.

But as things stand right now, Romney’s also very capable of winning an Iowa or South Carolina. And if he does, and couples it with wins in BOTH New Hampshire and Florida, this race will be over by Feb. 1.

[MNJohnnie]

Sure just ignore all fact to publish what you want to belives MSNBC.

Romney finishes 1st ONLY in NH so of course the path is OPEN to him. Never mind his fading polling position in the early states other then NH

[LS]

Hmm. A “front runner” who isn’t leading in one of the last two national polls; who isn’t leading on RCP’s composite poll; who isn’t leading (isn’t even second) in the latest SC poll. . . . In short, not a frontrunner.

[rwfromkansas]

The latest RCP poll from Iowa is very concerning for Cain, however. Newt is surging though as well.

[KarlInOhio]

Has MSNBC already decided how many electoral votes Romney will lose by in the general election?

[antonico]

Don’t be surprised to learn a revers Operation Chaos will be in effect through the Republican Primaries in order to get Romney as the nominee. That’s who Obama wants to run against, and they’ll get dems posing as pubs in primaries to get him the nomination. Wait and see.

[ken5050]

Mitt won’t get a majority in NH..

[bigdirty]

If Cain wins in Iowa they will say “Iowa doesn’t matter”. But if Romney wins in NH, which he probably will, you’ll see them saying “NH matters, Romney is the candidate!”

[CainConservative]

http://race42012.com/2011/11/11/herman-cain-web-ad-veterans-day-tribute/

[struggle]

Sorry lefties - Romney is NOT going to break any more than 20% of Republicans outside of New England.

We don’t want Obama vs Obama Jr.

[Vigilanteman]

How do you have a clear path when you can never break the 30% barrier?

[DManA]

The purpose of the primary season is to give the base the illusion that they have some say in picking the candidate.

[CainConservative]

???

Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus RCP Average Polling Data

Poll Date Sample Cain Romney Paul Gingrich Perry Bachmann Santorum Huntsman Spread

RCP Average 10/19 - 11/8 -- 23.8 21.5 11.3 10.3 8.3 6.8 3.5 1.3 Cain +2.3

Insider Advantage 11/8 - 11/8 436 LV 23 19 11 15 9 5 3 -- Cain +4

Des Moines Register 10/23 - 10/26 400 LV 23 22 12 7 7 8 5 1 Cain +1

CNN/Time 10/20 - 10/25 405 RV 21 24 12 10 10 6 2 1 Romney +3

Rasmussen Reports 10/19 - 10/19 800 LV 28 21 10 9 7 8 4 2 Cain +7

[frogjerk]

So the race is between Perry avg 8% and Romney is behind in all but one poll? Is that what the MSM is saying? Got it.

[wildandcrazyrussian]

1) Winner-take-all primaries, such as Florida in 2008, where McCain only got 30% of the vote split 8 ways, but got 100% of the delegates;

2) Open primaries where Democrats can cross over and vote for the Republican candidate they would most like to run against.

The solution is easy: no winner-take-all primaries, and no Democrats voting to sabotage Republican primaries.

[anoldafvet]

If these a-holes all want Romney, what does that tell you?

[MNJohnnie]

Concerning for Cain? Who leads Newt by 8. Cain who just finished raising $1.26 million for his Iowa Fund this week?

Think your concern is misplaced

[pallis]

Wishful thinking, but wanting it to be so doesn’t make it so, and it isn’t going to be easy sailing for Romney.

[Cboldt]

-- The purpose of the primary season is to give the base the illusion that they have some say in picking the candidate. --

Pretty much. A two party system is a tool of and for the elites. Both parties will milk all they can from the people on the plantation. The primary season is supposedly a substitute for a healthy multi-party system.

This same two party "free election" system is an export product of the US State Department, which sets up cronies in foreign lands under a similar "give the people the illusion they are in control of their government" game.

I don;t believe there is a way to break the charade. The public is either bought off / invested, or scared of personal independence.

[Dr. Sivana]

More prognosticatations from experts in the field:

In 1997, shortly after Mr. Jobs returned to Apple, the company he helped start in 1976, Dell's founder and chairman, Michael S. Dell, was asked at a technology conference what might be done to fix Apple, then deeply troubled financially.

"What would I do?" Mr. Dell said to an audience of several thousand information technology managers. "I'd shut it down and give the money back to the shareholders."