First Thoughts: Romney's Clear Path [Predicts Race Over By Feb.1st]

MSNBC ^ | November 11, 2011 | Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Brooke Brower

[Steelfish]

First Thoughts: Romney's Clear Path

By NBC’s Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Brooke Brower

*** Romney’s clear path: After Herman Cain’s defiant news conference on Tuesday and after Rick Perry’s brain freeze at Wednesday night’s CNBC debate, Mitt Romney’s path to the GOP presidential nomination is now WIDE open.

In fact, not since Bob Dole in 1996 has a candidate been such a clear front-runner right before the primaries and caucuses begin. The ’96 comparison is also instructive: Dole still lost New Hampshire to Pat Buchanan.

What this all means: While Romney looks to be on his way to the nomination -- and the Obama campaign and the DNC have been under that impression for months -- we’re still likely to have plenty of twists and turns ahead. And keep this in mind: If Romney doesn’t win either Iowa or South Carolina, there’s a much greater chance of a long primary season, because not winning EITHER early state dominated by conservatives will be the BIG sign that Romney hasn’t sealed the deal with heart and soul of the Republican electorate.

But as things stand right now, Romney’s also very capable of winning an Iowa or South Carolina. And if he does, and couples it with wins in BOTH New Hampshire and Florida, this race will be over by Feb. 1.

[murron]

Does everyone remember the year that Pat Buchanan won the Republican nomination for president? You don’t? Well, in 1992 he won the New Hampshire primary.

[Dr. Sivana]

Never mind his fading polling position in the early states other then NH

He might do okay in Nevada as well. (Mormons overwhelmingly support Romney)

[Dr. Sivana]

Does everyone remember the year that Pat Buchanan won the Republican nomination for president? You don’t? Well, in 1992 he won the New Hampshire primary.

Actually, he pulled 38% against George the Elder in '92. He beat Dole in '96.

[murron]

As some of the lower tier candidates drop out, I don’t think that their support will go to Romney. (well, maybe Huntsman’s may). I think most will go to Cain and Newt.

[Dr. Sivana]

1) Winner-take-all primaries, such as Florida in 2008, where McCain only got 30% of the vote split 8 ways, but got 100% of the delegates;

Early primaries like Florida (ESPECIALLY FL) have to use proportional allocation per Republican rule change.

[Netizen]

All the more reason why some of the 1%ers should drop out. They are only kidding themselves if they think they even have a chance.

[Buckeye Battle Cry]

MSDNC pissing into the wind again.

[RitaOK]

There will probably be some fall off occur after the press conference Cain attended. But when people see how little fall off, they can gather their courage and get back in the battle against the media.

I am wondering now if that is what Cain represents, the icon for the media battle, and less of the qualified candidate. I don’t know yet. Monday’s numbers will surely offer a clearer picture and Rasmussen will be bankable, no matter which way it goes, or who likes it or not.

[Dr. Sivana]

All the more reason why some of the 1%ers should drop out. They are only kidding themselves if they think they even have a chance.

Some might be positioning themselves for VP. Others might want to get a practice run in for '16 or '20.

[rwfromkansas]

The poll says 4 right?

[CynicalBear]

Let me add my thoughts to that article.

Bwahahahahahahahahah!!

[SWAMPSNIPER]

They would love to see us surrender, ain’t no way!

[Netizen]

Some might be positioning themselves for VP. Others might want to get a practice run in for '16 or '20.

Siphoning votes from the leader is not a good way to be added to a short list for VP. If you can't get over 5% mow, you are unlikely to do much better next time around. Doesn't they can't, but unlikely. There is a reason they aren't connecting with voters.