Thompson = Cain
Mitt 2008 = Mitt 2012
McCain 2008 = Newt 2012
Ron Paul 2008 = Ron Paul 2012
Huckabee 2008 = Bachmann + Santorum 2012
Giuliani 2008 = Perry 2012
F. Thompson 2008 = Cain 2012
You don’t necessarily get the same results every year.
Newt has more terrible divorces, has peaked, or will peak, too early, and is no war hero.
Ron Paul, 4 years ago at this time, was at 3% in the polls, and some recent polls have him as high as 20% (others around 12%). So, he’s ahead of last time.
The tea party didn’t exist 4 years ago. Will they rally behind a candidate they don’t really like that much, or if they’re worried about other factors, if the alternative is Romney?