Free Republic
Browse · Search
Bloggers & Personal
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Everyone Is Still Looking Past The Gorilla In The Room
Business Insider ^ | 11/17/11 | Simon Black

Posted on 11/17/2011 10:49:37 AM PST by Kartographer

I had lunch yesterday with one of the sharpest financial minds I’ve met in a long time at a rather picturesque setting overlooking Evergreen Lake, west of Denver.

The restaurant patrons were all well-to-do residents of this wealthy community… in fact, the whole area is like a bubble, largely shielded from any negative effect of the economic fallout thus far. Most of these folks have gone about their lives over the last few years completely oblivious to the global financial crisis.

My friend agreed; he told me, “Most of the people sitting in this restaurant haven’t felt a thing. Their guard is down, and they have no idea what’s coming. It makes me nervous.”

(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Society
KEYWORDS: beprepared; economy; getreadyhereitcomes; getreadynow; ows; prep; preparedness; prepper; prepperping; preppers; shtf; survivalping; tshtf
Look up 'Nomalcy Bias'

“There is no greater disaster than to underestimate danger. Underestimation can be fatal.”

1 posted on 11/17/2011 10:49:38 AM PST by Kartographer
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: appalachian_dweller; OldPossum; DuncanWaring; VirginiaMom; CodeToad; goosie; kalee; ...

Prepper’s Ping!


2 posted on 11/17/2011 10:50:25 AM PST by Kartographer (".. we mutually pledge to each other our lives, our fortunes, and our sacred honor.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Kartographer

Anybody remember that scene in the movie, The Pianist, where he is asked to stop playing so a couple of guys can bounce some gold coins to see if they are real?

I think that in a way, we are there now.


3 posted on 11/17/2011 10:54:36 AM PST by cuban leaf (Were doomed! Details at eleven.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Kartographer

Baloney. If they had any money in investments for retirement, they have been significantly affected.


4 posted on 11/17/2011 10:56:54 AM PST by Kirkwood (Zombie Hunter)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Kartographer
"Their experience with the poor economy is second-degree… what they read in the papers or see on TV. But overall they live in a bubble."

Perhaps they live a more prepared, conservative life.

5 posted on 11/17/2011 10:58:30 AM PST by Paladin2
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Kirkwood

Yeah, the whole “they haven’t felt a thing” part struck me as unadulterated BS.


6 posted on 11/17/2011 10:58:59 AM PST by 1rudeboy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Kartographer

The gorilla in my room is named “Obadiah” and he keeps pestering me to get a Wii.


7 posted on 11/17/2011 10:59:32 AM PST by Winstons Julia (Hello OWS? We don't need a revolution like China's; China needs a revolution like OURS.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Kirkwood

Change is bad for long term investing.


8 posted on 11/17/2011 10:59:50 AM PST by Paladin2
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Kartographer

Have a fanily member living in just that kind of bubble right now. Makes a lot of snide remarks too.


9 posted on 11/17/2011 11:04:59 AM PST by F15Eagle (1 John 5:4-5, 4:15, 5:13; John 3:17-18, 6:69, 11:25, 14:6, 20:31; Rom10:8-11; 1 Tim 2:5; Titus 3:4-5)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Kartographer

I see normalcy bias people, and some of them, they don’t know they are normalcy bias.


10 posted on 11/17/2011 11:05:05 AM PST by Cold Heart
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Kartographer
The same thing happens when a nation collapses. Everything is fine until it isn’t. Look at how quickly the situation deteriorated in Greece. Or Argentina.

I was in Mongolia after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Visited one of the former state run farms, these were huge operations. I walked through one large livestock building, it was stripped. My eyes started at the top and worked down and you could just imagine what happened when the phone call came that USSR was broke. Upper Management grabbed all the cash and fancy cars. Middle management grabbed the machinery and livestock. The employees were the last to know and grabbed what they could. Then my eyes looked down and saw that the manure chain was still full. NO ONE RAN THE MANURE CHAIN THE LAST TIME - IT HAPPENED THAT FAST.

The upside is that life went on, it wasn't the same but it went on and that will be true for us also.

11 posted on 11/17/2011 11:07:41 AM PST by PeterPrinciple ( getting closer to the truth.................)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Cold Heart

Isn’t that pretty much the definition of “normalcy bias”... not knowing that you have it?


12 posted on 11/17/2011 11:08:46 AM PST by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter knows whom he's working for)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: Kirkwood

Their 401-Ks have been hit but some people are still wearing rose colored glasses and refuse to see the reason why and what is coming down the road.


13 posted on 11/17/2011 11:10:58 AM PST by bgill (The Obama administration is staging a coup. Wake up, America, before it's too late.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: bgill
According to the US government’s own 2010 financial statements, the cost of just three sacrosanct programs– Defense, Social Security, and Medicare– exceeded all of the tax revenue collected that year by $10 billion.

Throw a few trillion in there and then you are talking about real money.
14 posted on 11/17/2011 11:12:28 AM PST by TSgt (whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive...it is the Right of the People to abolish it.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: F15Eagle

We had a gathering recently at which all who were there “got it”, including the offspring which weren’t there but were the topic of conversation (if you get what I mean) - EXCEPT for my favorite lib-in-law, who is definitely in the intentionally oblivious bubble.

Our guests were talking about their daughter trying out canning and wheat grinding and buying property in the boonies. My libinlaw was expressing her total denial of what’s coming. “Why would anyone in this day and age want to can anything or grind their own flour? It’s cheaper and easier to buy it at the store!”

Of course, back in 2008, she voted for 0bama because “he’s going to make the world a better place for your children” - and she really believes that.


15 posted on 11/17/2011 11:13:00 AM PST by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter knows whom he's working for)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: PeterPrinciple

Nobody stole the manure?


16 posted on 11/17/2011 11:18:12 AM PST by SoothingDave
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: Kirkwood
Baloney. If they had any money in investments for retirement, they have been significantly affected.


I know what you are saying but the retirement money is not something that is real and now to them whether liberal or conservative. Most people manage cash flow and as long as they have the cash flow it doesn't not change their behavior.

My economic theory is that nothing changes until the cash flow stops. the only thing that is going to change our federal and state government is when the cash flow stops.

17 posted on 11/17/2011 11:18:15 AM PST by PeterPrinciple ( getting closer to the truth.................)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Kartographer

In fact, these are the people managing the business at hand.

They have the means to expand their business, but will not do so because everyday reveals another unanticipated cost of doing business, due to regulation or threat of new taxation.

Key to a successful business is managing risk, which means bounding the uncertainty to which you expose your enterprise.


18 posted on 11/17/2011 11:19:49 AM PST by G Larry (Catholic Conservative Supporting Israel!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: MrB

I tell jokes to amuse myself. If other people get the joke that’s ok too:)


19 posted on 11/17/2011 11:20:44 AM PST by Cold Heart
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: Kartographer
Rush just said that the world is on the verge of a worldwide collapse...AND, Rush is 98.8% correct, right?

Are You Prepared For What’s Coming?

20 posted on 11/17/2011 11:21:23 AM PST by blam
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: PeterPrinciple

That is how it always seems to happen one day everything is normal, then a week or two of gorwing unsettleness and then BAM! SHTF!

What you have discribe what you observed in Mongolia after the collapse of the Soviet Union is so very close to what Ferfal in Argentina and Selco in Bosina discribed when SHTF in those two places.

I find Selco’s posting as being must READ! You can reviewed them here:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2798007/posts

Selco;s blog is here: http://shtfschool.com/

FerFal’s blog is here: http://ferfal.blogspot.com/

Black clouds cover the horizon, the lightening is flashing and there is the distant sound of thunder! The storm flags are going up, will you heed them?

I am very aware that if it’s the great end that there is nothing I can do to stop or change it, but history is full of instances and times when man or nature have caused such a calamity that people have cried out and begged God to end it all.

The bible has many verse such as this:

A prudent man sees danger and takes refuge, but the simple keep going and suffer for it.
NIV Proverbs 22:3

This verse and others are there for a reason and I urge all to take heed of them, because we are clearly on the edge. Everyday there is a new story about the ‘Yutes’ who grow more restless everyday and when you add the fact that because of the economy people are already on edge it won’t take much to set things off.

Reminds me of one of my favorite quotes:

“Star Trek: Deep Space Nine: The Siege of AR-558 (#7.8)” (1998)
Quark: Let me tell you something about Hew-mons, Nephew. They’re a wonderful, friendly people, as long as their bellies are full and their holosuites are working. But take away their creature comforts, deprive them of food, sleep, sonic showers, put their lives in jeopardy over an extended period of time and those same friendly, intelligent, wonderful people... will become as nasty and as violent as the most bloodthirsty Klingon. You don’t believe me? Look at those faces. Look in their eyes.

Today we have ‘yutes’ who roam our streets who are with out morals, without respect for law or life itself. They will look are you with the same ‘doll eyes’ a shark does before he eats you and they will feel no more compassion than the shark does.

That will be the test of many. Most preppers I know are Christian people and they will hesitate to do what they might have to do to stop the ‘yutes’. On the other hand the ‘yutes’ won’t think twice nor lose a minute of sleep, in fact they will smile and laugh about it.

For those who are just starting or are old hands at prepping you may find my Preparedness Manual helpfull. You can download it at:

http://www.tomeaker.com/kart/preparedness1i.pdf

For those of you who haven’t started already it’s time to prepare almost past time maybe. You needed to be stocking up on food guns, ammo, basic household supplies like soap, papergoods, cleaning supplies, good sturdy clothes including extra socks, underwear and extra shoes and boots, a extra couple changes of oil and filters for your car, tools, things you buy everyday start buying two and put one up.

“There is no greater disaster than to underestimate danger. Underestimation can be fatal.”

As the LDS say “When the emergency is upon us the time for preparedness has past.”


21 posted on 11/17/2011 11:21:58 AM PST by Kartographer (".. we mutually pledge to each other our lives, our fortunes, and our sacred honor.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: F15Eagle

I have one of those relatives, too. He lives and works in D.C. Doesn’t have a clue what life is like outside that little safety zone of never ending government paychecks.


22 posted on 11/17/2011 11:22:53 AM PST by Betty Jane
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: blam

23 posted on 11/17/2011 11:24:54 AM PST by blam
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: PeterPrinciple

The last lesson is that there’s money to be made in manure...


24 posted on 11/17/2011 11:39:18 AM PST by jagusafr ("We hold these truths to be self-evident...")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: jagusafr
"The last lesson is that there’s money to be made in manure..."

Fertilzer and Fuel both worth their weight in gold during SHTF.
25 posted on 11/17/2011 11:43:28 AM PST by Kartographer (".. we mutually pledge to each other our lives, our fortunes, and our sacred honor.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: blam

Did you read about Ann Barnhardt?? Not unbelievable, but much of a shock.


26 posted on 11/17/2011 11:46:26 AM PST by Jane Long (Soli Deo Gloria!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: Jane Long

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2809016/posts


27 posted on 11/17/2011 12:04:53 PM PST by DuncanWaring (The Lord uses the good ones; the bad ones use the Lord.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: DuncanWaring

It posted one minute after I asked :) Saw it...thanks. Glad it got it’s own thread.


28 posted on 11/17/2011 12:26:23 PM PST by Jane Long (Soli Deo Gloria!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: Kartographer

Bank run yet?


29 posted on 11/17/2011 12:26:37 PM PST by vanilla swirl (We are the Patrick Henry we have been waiting for!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: vanilla swirl
Why there's no money there to get. And even if there was it would be worth about the same as that in your Monopoly game at home.
30 posted on 11/17/2011 12:30:36 PM PST by Kartographer (".. we mutually pledge to each other our lives, our fortunes, and our sacred honor.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]

To: Kartographer

Thanks for posting this thread.

Simon Black writes “This is the point of no return. Examining the long and distinguished list of countries over the last 800-years that have been in this position before, there is hardly a single example of a nation escaping default and/or hyperinflation. This time is not different.”

I call that a good description of our terminal financial death spiral.

Read more: http://www.sovereignman.com/expat/can-you-see-this-gorilla/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=can-you-see-this-gorilla#ixzz1dzqNtKrD


31 posted on 11/17/2011 12:38:10 PM PST by Graewoulf ( obama"care" violates the 1890 Sherman Anti-Trust Law, AND is illegal by the U.S. Constitution.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: blam

I always like clicking on your posts within posts. It’s kind of like a playing Zork and going underground. You never know where Blam is going to take you:)


32 posted on 11/17/2011 1:06:27 PM PST by Cold Heart
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]




Click the Pic               Thank you, JoeProBono

Hang on, Gary!

Follow the Exciting Adventures of Gary the Snail!


Donate Monthly
Sponsors will pony up a sawbuck
For each New Monthly Donor

33 posted on 11/17/2011 1:48:28 PM PST by TheOldLady (FReepmail me to get ON or OFF the ZOT LIGHTNING ping list)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Kartographer

Bank run? Already happening.

(from an Infowars article, probably not welcome here)

“Days before the doomed financial broker filed for bankruptcy, MF Global conducted “unexplained wire transfers” that led to a $900 million shortfall in client funds, leading customers like Gerald Celente to learn that their accounts had been looted and setting the precedent for internal bank runs as more big firms go bust.”


34 posted on 11/17/2011 2:44:42 PM PST by vanilla swirl (We are the Patrick Henry we have been waiting for!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 30 | View Replies]

To: vanilla swirl

“Bank run? Already happening.”

So is Zerohedge ok?

“A firm, led by a crony of the Obama regime, stole all of the non-margined cash held by customers of his firm. Let’s not sugar-coat this or make this crime seem “complex” and “abstract” by drowning ourselves in six-dollar words and uber-technical jargon. Jon Corzine STOLE the customer cash at MF Global.”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/entire-system-has-been-utterly-destroyed-mf-global-collapse-presenting-first-mf-global-casualty

stick a fork in us


35 posted on 11/17/2011 3:04:22 PM PST by vanilla swirl (We are the Patrick Henry we have been waiting for!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 34 | View Replies]

To: Kartographer

Great quote


36 posted on 11/17/2011 3:06:32 PM PST by GlockThe Vote (The Obama Adminstration: 2nd wave of attacks on America after 9/11)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Cold Heart

My Guys

37 posted on 11/17/2011 3:43:36 PM PST by blam
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 32 | View Replies]

To: Betty Jane; MrB

They are clueless. Mine has the intention of selling their million-dollar-plus house in a couple years “when things get better”. And the house is five or six times larger than what they needed. I have been telling them to get out for six years. Four years ago they doubled down on cost and size.


38 posted on 11/17/2011 3:59:34 PM PST by F15Eagle (1 John 5:4-5, 4:15, 5:13; John 3:17-18, 6:69, 11:25, 14:6, 20:31; Rom10:8-11; 1 Tim 2:5; Titus 3:4-5)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 22 | View Replies]

To: jagusafr

The last lesson is that there’s money to be made in manure...


well, maybe not money but once you moved out of the large soviet style apartment and into your yurt, they were helpful in keep you warm.


39 posted on 11/18/2011 6:00:09 AM PST by PeterPrinciple ( getting closer to the truth.................)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: Kartographer

People are clueless.I saw a local news report that more people are traveling for turkey day tired of having no money.People will still spend money to keep them not so depressed.


40 posted on 11/18/2011 7:37:43 AM PST by Dubya-M-DeesWent2SyriaStupid!
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
Bloggers & Personal
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson