Who knows? Paul will do better in caucuses than primaries on average. Newt will likely be hit very hard in the next month.
It remains to be see whether Newt is a flavor of the month or not. There’s a lot to hit Newt with, and he’ll get hit. Every candidate knows that has to happen. So it’ll happen.
Someone could win Iowa with 21%. If Santorum keeps working hard, he could get 10% or more. Bachmanns a neighbor, she could get 10%. Cain hangs in there, he gets 10%. Give 5 to Perry and 5 to Huntsman. Gingrich, Romney, Paul all at 20%.
It’s a fairly realistic potential scenario.
I can’t believe that the Iowa Evangelicals want multiple adultery and divorce Gingrich. So they might go to Santorum or Bachmann.
With the way the attacks on Bachmann have ramped up I’m guessing she worries them.