Skip to comments.Better a horrible end for Euroland, or endless horror?
Posted on 12/08/2011 3:01:04 PM PST by bruinbirdman
Things aren't looking good in Euroland
While we are waiting for Mario and Merkozy plus, just a quick thought on one of the EMU break-up reports hitting my desk daily, and sometimes in twos and threes.
(Ah, how I look back to those halcyon days when it was just we happy few, we band of brothers, tiny handful of Little Englanders, Danes, Swedes, cheese-eating Souverainistes, and Czech patriots, against the crushing force of orthodoxy.)
The Dutch bank ING has had another go at the numbers, calculating that the Greek Drachma would fall by 80pc against the D-Mark in a full-blown disintegration.
The Escudo and the Peseta would fall by 50pc, and the Lira and the Punt by 25pc. Germany would suffer a "deflationary shock".
The whole eurozone would crash into depression, with a GDP contraction of around 9pc in 2012 Germany (-7.4), France (-9.1), Portugal (-12.7), Greece (-13.1).
Outside: UK (-5), Poland (-6.6), US (-0.2), Japan (-1.1). The price of oil would drop to $55 a barrel. The US would flirt with deflation.
The contraction would continue into 2013, before gradually stabilizing.
"Events of the past year have proved beyond doubt that the Eurozone is far from a textbook `optimal currency area'. But this is an omelette that cannot readily be unscrambled ," said ING's Mark Cliffe.
Oddly enough, I lunched with Mr Cliffe days before the ERM blew up in September 1992, so this all has funny feel to me.
His report is less dire than a UBS note predicting 50pc collapse in peripheral GDP, and 20pc to 25pc in the core, but it still begs the question:
If the intra-EMU currency misalignment is so extreme that free floats would cut Greece by 80pc, and Spain by 50pc, it surely validates the eurosceptic
(Excerpt) Read more at blogs.telegraph.co.uk ...
Home prices have fallen to historic lows against the real value of the dollar ~ and that's just the start!
Why not both?
‘Euroland’? I thought this was an article about Mickey and Goofy in Europe....oh wait.....
I think that was what the Germans said during the First World War -- or maybe the Second. Seems in poor taste to use it now. However bad things are now, they're nothing like what they were then.
A period of darkness lies ahead.
Arbeit Macht Freiheit.
Does the emu stick its head in the sand like its cousin, the ostrich? If so it is a good mascot for the European Monetary Union.
The elite in Europe and the US have gotten our people in a real mess with their stupid globalist ideology.
Better to suffer a few years of economic contraction and let their EU crash and dissolve than to be under the thumb of a Soviet-like super state government for a very long time to come.
Let it crash! Globalism is a rush to the bottom - serfdom. Prosecute the ruler wannabes for violating the law.