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Iowa Caucuses Only Relevant For Their Near-Total Irrelevance
Reaganite Republican ^ | January 4, 2012 | Reaganite Republican

Posted on 01/04/2012 7:16:03 AM PST by Reaganite Republican

Keeping-in-mind the state's pitiful track record at picking eventual Republican presidential nominees, here's considering the Iowa Caucus results and what they mean (if anything):
Santorum and Romney are locked in a dead-heat late into the night, nearing 25% of the vote each.  Romney appears to be pulling into the lead with a late surge, though. 

Ron Paul is third and Newt a battle-weary fourth, the take-away for Team Doughboy being "attack ads work", shame that it is. 

The rest are left licking wounds and re-assessing hopes in the wake of disappointing finishes, particularly Michelle Bachmann (who actually won the Iowa Staw Poll five months ago) and 
snotty liberal-Republican John Huntsman with 742 votes (lol)

How many people voted in this one small state deep in the heart of Korn Kountry?

Results are still coming in this year, but last time in 2008 a grand total of 119,188 people -only 4% of the population of sparsely-populated Iowa-
took part in the caucus process that selected Mike Huckabee (Super Bowl XLV attendance was 103,000+)

Alas, the caucuses are not even representative of the state's Republicans as a whole: later that same year (2008), John McCain received 677,000 presidential votes in the Iowa... 
5x the total number of caucus-goers. And paltry sums seen in the (above) chart appear almost identical to 2008's Iowa turnout.

That means this Iowa vote that a ludicrous amount of importance is being slathered upon -with some deeming certain campaigns rendered "confident", "surging", or even "demoralized" by this minor event- represents the voice of just 4/100ths of one percent of the United States population, a mere gaggle that couldn't even half-fill the Indianapolis Motor Speedway.

And the delegate count?

Even if Mittens pulls it off in Iowa and goes on to take New Hampshire (where he owns a home/enjoys a large lead), that would find him with  just 12 delegates of the 1144 he needs for the GOP nomination... big whoop-dee-doo.

What's the landscape look like after that?

Newt Gingrich leads the RCP poll-of-polls nationally by 2.4%, continuing a rebound that began last week, and reversing a trend that Romney and pro-Romney PAC-men had instigated with their withering $3M attack-ad offensive. That unprincipled and largely dishonest effort was enough to have Mitt up 1.8% for a few days nationally, but the game's not going to work quite the same in the American south and southwest that dominates the primary schedule from NH-on. Newt's taking the gloves off... and southerners never much cottoned to Mittens in the first place.

Team Romney may soon come to regret how early they chose to go nuclear on Gingrich… he’ll come out both barrels blazing now, and woe be unto the unholy target. Romney should be easy to shred this way in the south, he’s not their kind of guy and all Newt has to do is remind them just why that is. Polling suggests a possible Gingrich sweep of the south, with Newt up 16% in South Carolina and 7% in Florida. Nabbing that delegate jackpot would put the former Speaker instantly out-front, with the remaining primary schedule (south/west) overall friendly to Gingrich imho.

If you're expecting the 'Santorum Surge' to amount to anything from this point on, you're due for some disappointment: He doesn’t have the money or infrastructure to keep up with Romney in New Hampshire, and he hasn’t even been in South Carolina since early November. As I said yesterday, a vote for Santorum is a vote for Romney, in-effect.

Although fundraising should improve overnight and he'll be getting a lot more press now, Santorum will have to dramatically expand his campaign organization as fast as humanly possible. He may even be wise to abandon NH to concentrate on more-friendly environs of SC and Florida. 

Trouble for him is, that's Gingrich Country... Video/toons/more at Reaganite Republican

___________________________________________________
Politico   RightKlik   CBSNews   The Other McCain   American Power Legal Insurrection   Real Clear Politics   Otherwise


TOPICS: Conspiracy; Government; History; Politics
KEYWORDS: caucus; gingrich; iowa; romney

1 posted on 01/04/2012 7:16:07 AM PST by Reaganite Republican
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To: Reaganite Republican

An Iowa buddy calls their caucus the “Cross Your Heart Bra of politics” because it “lifts and separates” - lifting a candidate like Santorum from the bottom tier to co-winner and the eminent departure of Ms. Bachmann sure seems to prove that he’s got a point.


2 posted on 01/04/2012 7:20:10 AM PST by bigbob
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To: Reaganite Republican

It is an insult to states with more relevance in nominating how people give Iowa and NH this magical power over the whole process.

And candidates have to pay them lip-service or else they get flogged.


3 posted on 01/04/2012 7:21:53 AM PST by VanDeKoik (1 million in stimulus dollars paid for this tagline!)
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To: Reaganite Republican

LOL

Seem to have been pretty meaningful for Rick Santorum's momentum.

Just saying.

4 posted on 01/04/2012 7:22:50 AM PST by Cringing Negativism Network (ROMNEY / ALINSKY 2012 (sarcasm))
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To: VanDeKoik

In a way I wish Ron Paul had won, that might have motivated the party to rid us of Iowa’s unhelpful, over-representative influence once and for-all.


5 posted on 01/04/2012 7:23:45 AM PST by Reaganite Republican
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To: VanDeKoik

Hey now, don’t be bad-mouthing Iowa ;-)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WyeY0hWU28I


6 posted on 01/04/2012 7:23:57 AM PST by bigbob
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To: VanDeKoik

Absolutely agree.

Order of primaries should be chosen by random 4 years in advance.

IA and NH, while lovely states, should not have such permanent influence on the electoral process.


7 posted on 01/04/2012 7:25:40 AM PST by Sherman Logan
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To: Cringing Negativism Network

See where it takes him- nowhere, just a short-lived buzz, that’s all


8 posted on 01/04/2012 7:25:50 AM PST by Reaganite Republican
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To: Reaganite Republican
Iowa is important not because of who wins, but who lost. Going into Iowa there were 8 candidates. Cain dropped out before the vote. Perry and Bachman are likely to go out today. In addition of the remaining candidates Huntsman is now a joke and will get even less then his current 1% if he stays in at all.

So we are down to four leading into the primaries next week. This is critical as Romney can't break 25%. So he can only win in a race split at least five ways. One on one with anybody accept Ron Paul he is toast.
9 posted on 01/04/2012 7:26:10 AM PST by GonzoGOP (There are millions of paranoid people in the world and they are all out to get me.)
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To: Reaganite Republican

GO RICK!

Stop the squabbling people, and let’s all un-elect Obama.

:D

10 posted on 01/04/2012 7:29:32 AM PST by Cringing Negativism Network (ROMNEY / ALINSKY 2012 (sarcasm))
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To: Reaganite Republican; All
A few days ago, Gingrich was to own Iowa, followed by Romney. The rest really didn't matter. Here are the numbers from a Reuters story on Dec 12th of those likely to vote in the Iowa caucuses: Gingrich 29.8% Mitt Romney, 20.3%, Ron Paul 10.7%. U.S. Rep. Michele Bachman 8.5%, Rick Perry 8.2%. Since he didn't buy enough ads or hire enough ex/future media people from PR firms, and is a conservative that can win with conservative volunteers, Rick Santorum wasn't worth mentioning. Pat Caddell said that Santorum was in single digits a week before 01/03/12! Keep that in mind as you see the election results:

Santorum & Romney 25%, Paul 21%, Gingrich 13% Perry 10% Bachmann 5% Huntsman 1%.

The pollsters are rigging this election to whoever they think will buy the most ads/can be beat by Obama, Romney and Gingrich. The massive 40% undecided vote wasn't even mentioned until Sunday and has yet to be mentioned for New Hampshire, S. Carolina, Super Tuesday States, or any other state. Is there is a reason to trust a pundit claiming a candidate is "finished" after this "surprise"? Are we to trust these pundits who claim that Gingrich will sweep the South or that Santorum's rise was only one time?

11 posted on 01/04/2012 7:30:20 AM PST by pulaskibush (Thou shalt tax/steal from Peter to help Paul/Pablo is not in the Bible!)
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To: GonzoGOP

That’s right. Iowa isn’t the decider, just the funneler. We get the chaff off the wheat. Four candidates are much more manageable than eight.


12 posted on 01/04/2012 7:31:08 AM PST by Free Vulcan (Election 2012 - No Prisoners. No Mercy.)
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To: Reaganite Republican
So people WANT Iowa to pick the winner??
First we are told we are insignificant because we don't pick the inner; then we are told we have too much power.

What is it??!!??

13 posted on 01/04/2012 7:31:19 AM PST by HereInTheHeartland (I love how the FR spellchecker doesn't recognize the word "Obama")
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To: Reaganite Republican

The fact that he finished 3rd is enough for me;o)


14 posted on 01/04/2012 7:31:27 AM PST by TheGunny
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To: GonzoGOP

“Perry and Bachman are likely to go out today.”

If they do, will they endorse? Reports on morning shows say McCain is going to endorse Mittens today. We shall see.


15 posted on 01/04/2012 7:33:29 AM PST by ngat
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To: Reaganite Republican

You started off saying Iowa was ‘irrelevant’ and then listed a myriad of reasons why it is not only relevant, but this year it was crucial.
Bachmann and Perry are out. Santorum is in the spotlight after being virtually ignored by EVERYONE since the process began, and romney was totally embarrassed after outspending Santorum a hundred to one.
The dynamic completely changed last night. Maybe it is irrelevant to you, but I’ll bet it is not irrelevant to a whole lot of other people who will see things a lot differently today. romney can be beaten soundly now that Conservatives won’t be splitting their botes ten ways from Sunday.
Relevant? You betcha.


16 posted on 01/04/2012 7:36:20 AM PST by MestaMachine (obama kills)
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To: ngat

“He may even be wise to abandon NH to concentrate on more-friendly environs of SC and Florida.”

Why? If he finishes second, he gains even more delegates on Newt.

So far it’s Santorum 1, Newt 0. Doesn’t matter what the national polls say, it’s all up to the individual states.


17 posted on 01/04/2012 7:36:33 AM PST by BenKenobi
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To: MestaMachine

gah! votes.


18 posted on 01/04/2012 7:38:21 AM PST by MestaMachine (obama kills)
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To: ngat

Based on 2008 I wouldn’t call a McCain endorsement a positive thing for Romney.


19 posted on 01/04/2012 7:39:10 AM PST by bayoung18
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To: MestaMachine

Well, Newt leads nationally and more importantly thoughout the South... yet he came in 4th

Santorum will never win another state

Irrelevant? You betcha


20 posted on 01/04/2012 7:39:56 AM PST by Reaganite Republican
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To: Reaganite Republican

I’ll take that bet.


21 posted on 01/04/2012 7:41:25 AM PST by Cringing Negativism Network (ROMNEY / ALINSKY 2012 (sarcasm))
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To: Reaganite Republican
Jim Rob should impose a six month posting ban all Iowan freepers. lolol
22 posted on 01/04/2012 7:41:41 AM PST by verity (The Obama Administration is a Criminal Enterprise.)
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To: Reaganite Republican

In the age of the Internet, throw out all of the old conventional wisdom.

The media might have been able to squelch the Iowa results from the masses, with the Internet, that’s not possible.

Santorum’s campaign will skyrocket because of Iowa.


23 posted on 01/04/2012 7:44:48 AM PST by dfwgator
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To: ngat
If they do, will they endorse? Reports on morning shows say McCain is going to endorse Mittens today. We shall see.

McCain's endorsement isn't going to mean much. Anyone who actually liked McCain would be voting for Romney already. As for Bachman and Perry their people have already made one decision, they aren't voting for Romney. Now they may go Gingrich or Santorum or split up. But I don't see anyone who stuck with Bachman this long suddenly becoming a Romneybot.
24 posted on 01/04/2012 7:45:18 AM PST by GonzoGOP (There are millions of paranoid people in the world and they are all out to get me.)
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To: verity

verity
Since Jul 26, 1998
verity hasn’t created an about page.

verity, an unknown COWARD since 1998

So WHY don’t you post SOMETHING about yourself??!!


25 posted on 01/04/2012 7:47:33 AM PST by US Navy Vet (Go Packers! Go Rockies! Go Boston Bruins! See, I'm "Diverse"!)
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To: US Navy Vet

lol


26 posted on 01/04/2012 7:52:55 AM PST by verity (The Obama Administration is a Criminal Enterprise.)
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To: Reaganite Republican
" Romney appears to be pulling into the lead with a late surge"

What was the deal with that anyway?

When I shut down the TV someone had lost the official tally but local officials had "agreed" that Romney had the most votes..?

27 posted on 01/04/2012 8:01:33 AM PST by norton
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To: pulaskibush

“Is there is a reason to trust a pundit claiming a candidate is “finished” after this “surprise”?”

It’s not a matter of “trusting” Pundit Reaganite Republican; its just deciding if his political analysis is sound or not. The point of his analysis seemed to be the media has it all wrong and the momentum factor out of Iowa is negligible and does not lead to a Santorum victory as the eventual nominee. You said the following yourself: Santorum and Romney 25% (each). Since Santorum is the only one Romney and the media have not applied scorched earth campaign tactics onto - it looks to me like we have a Romney-Santorum ticket to look forward to. What could be more establishment than a team of two northeastern Lawyer-MBAs?

“Are we to trust these pundits who claim that Gingrich will sweep the South or that Santorum’s rise was only one time?”

Well, if Reaganite Republican was right that the Iowa caucus results involving four one-hundredths of 1% of voters and Iowa and New Hampsire delegate results for Romney would be a total of TWELVE delegates of 1,144 needed for nomination - perhaps he has made some very valid points. I don’t think voters in the remaining states are impressed with Iowa OR New Hampshire. Jim Robinson had a thread going yesterday regarding Gingrich and the long haul in this 2012 primary process that had a lot of excellent analysis in it.


28 posted on 01/04/2012 8:08:30 AM PST by ngat
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To: verity

Diner owners,Motel 6’s and TV stations stock up before they
begin their four year hibernation.


29 posted on 01/04/2012 8:14:27 AM PST by Dr. Ursus
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To: ngat

NDAA McCain will endorse Romney. Thank God McCain has his finger on the pulse of America.


30 posted on 01/04/2012 8:18:07 AM PST by qman
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To: qman

I’m never going to vote for santorum, but I wanted to see how he’s doing today in campaign donations, not knowing his web address I tried googling him and his web site is un-searchable, all I get is web sites professing his views on homosexuality, that seems like it might be a problem!


31 posted on 01/04/2012 8:23:45 AM PST by qman
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To: GonzoGOP

“But I don’t see anyone who stuck with Bachman this long suddenly becoming a Romneybot.”

What if Bachmann becomes, or IS a Romneybot? I’ve seen a whole slew of posts saying Bachmann’s run is really aimed at the vice-presidency and she was being a Romney surrogate in her over-the-top attacks on her rival conservatives.


32 posted on 01/04/2012 8:36:10 AM PST by ngat
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To: ngat
What if Bachmann becomes, or IS a Romneybot?

Well that is one more vote Romney will get, but the problem is that it would be very hard to sell Romney to a Bachman voter. Even if she endorses Romney. If it had only been a choice between Gingrich or Romney the endorsement would have mattered, as moral conservatives don't feel comfortable with either. But Santorum is such a perfect fit my gut tells me he will pick up the bulk of her voters no matter who she endorses.
33 posted on 01/04/2012 8:42:24 AM PST by GonzoGOP (There are millions of paranoid people in the world and they are all out to get me.)
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To: BenKenobi

>>“He may even be wise to abandon NH to concentrate on more-friendly environs of SC and Florida.”<<

“Why? If he finishes second, he gains even more delegates on Newt.

Because the actual number of delegates available to him in New Hampshire is miniscule - and if Santorum is trying to eclipse Gingrich as the conservative alternative to Romney, he has to stop Gingrich from assuming that role in the South.

“So far it’s Santorum 1, Newt 0.”

Not exactly. If you are focused on delegate counts, in proportional representation states, Gingrich does not get “0”.

“Doesn’t matter what the national polls say, it’s all up to the individual states.”

Yes, and these polls broken down by the individual upcoming states, post-New Hampshire, indicate Gingrich having a better chance to take these states than Santorum.


34 posted on 01/04/2012 8:48:07 AM PST by ngat
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To: GonzoGOP

Good thoughts, especially now that I’m seeing on the sidebar she dropped out. And Perry going on to SC!? On TV they were saying it was Perry who was about to go home. I guess Perry thinks those Bachmann votes are his, not Santorums’!


35 posted on 01/04/2012 8:55:07 AM PST by ngat
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To: VanDeKoik; Reaganite Republican; bigbob
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2828546/posts

Makes me think of two guys in a race, one wins and the other disgruntled says:
.." it didn't mean a thing, as I hurt my foot on the down-slope, so I gave up the win...I didn't TRY to win..I have to be careful; as I have a big race coming up soon!"

I can truthfully say I “am undecided”, but Iowa made a difference to me in leaning toward a candidate who I have watched and admired over the years— hard working, beat the payment-meet the people, principled guy, Santorum, and hope he gets more media attention and picking up votes in “the BIG states that matter” that people tout about.

I gained further respect for the guy. Deserves a toast for his performance against a guy who probably owned the vineyard.

Everyone likes the underdog—without big money, or flashy big ads to easily see one through.

The MSM, all the political pundits were all out for Iowa, and moving on to NH, SC;

so must have meant something to someone, somewhere!

36 posted on 01/04/2012 8:59:03 AM PST by fight_truth_decay
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To: Dr. Ursus

Perspicacious..;-)


37 posted on 01/04/2012 10:35:34 AM PST by verity (The Obama Administration is a Criminal Enterprise.)
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