Skip to comments.Iowa Caucuses Only Relevant For Their Near-Total Irrelevance
Posted on 01/04/2012 7:16:03 AM PST by Reaganite Republican
Ron Paul is third and Newt a battle-weary fourth, the take-away for Team Doughboy being "attack ads work", shame that it is.
The rest are left licking wounds and re-assessing hopes in the wake of disappointing finishes, particularly Michelle Bachmann (who actually won the Iowa Staw Poll five months ago) and
snotty liberal-Republican John Huntsman with 742 votes (lol)
Team Romney may soon come to regret how early they chose to go nuclear on Gingrich hell come out both barrels blazing now, and woe be unto the unholy target. Romney should be easy to shred this way in the south, hes not their kind of guy and all Newt has to do is remind them just why that is. Polling suggests a possible Gingrich sweep of the south, with Newt up 16% in South Carolina and 7% in Florida. Nabbing that delegate jackpot would put the former Speaker instantly out-front, with the remaining primary schedule (south/west) overall friendly to Gingrich imho.
If you're expecting the 'Santorum Surge' to amount to anything from this point on, you're due for some disappointment: He doesnt have the money or infrastructure to keep up with Romney in New Hampshire, and he hasnt even been in South Carolina since early November. As I said yesterday, a vote for Santorum is a vote for Romney, in-effect.
Although fundraising should improve overnight and he'll be getting a lot more press now, Santorum will have to dramatically expand his campaign organization as fast as humanly possible. He may even be wise to abandon NH to concentrate on more-friendly environs of SC and Florida.
Trouble for him is, that's Gingrich Country... Video/toons/more at Reaganite Republican
An Iowa buddy calls their caucus the “Cross Your Heart Bra of politics” because it “lifts and separates” - lifting a candidate like Santorum from the bottom tier to co-winner and the eminent departure of Ms. Bachmann sure seems to prove that he’s got a point.
It is an insult to states with more relevance in nominating how people give Iowa and NH this magical power over the whole process.
And candidates have to pay them lip-service or else they get flogged.
In a way I wish Ron Paul had won, that might have motivated the party to rid us of Iowa’s unhelpful, over-representative influence once and for-all.
Hey now, don’t be bad-mouthing Iowa ;-)
Order of primaries should be chosen by random 4 years in advance.
IA and NH, while lovely states, should not have such permanent influence on the electoral process.
See where it takes him- nowhere, just a short-lived buzz, that’s all
Santorum & Romney 25%, Paul 21%, Gingrich 13% Perry 10% Bachmann 5% Huntsman 1%.
The pollsters are rigging this election to whoever they think will buy the most ads/can be beat by Obama, Romney and Gingrich. The massive 40% undecided vote wasn't even mentioned until Sunday and has yet to be mentioned for New Hampshire, S. Carolina, Super Tuesday States, or any other state. Is there is a reason to trust a pundit claiming a candidate is "finished" after this "surprise"? Are we to trust these pundits who claim that Gingrich will sweep the South or that Santorum's rise was only one time?
That’s right. Iowa isn’t the decider, just the funneler. We get the chaff off the wheat. Four candidates are much more manageable than eight.
What is it??!!??
The fact that he finished 3rd is enough for me;o)
“Perry and Bachman are likely to go out today.”
If they do, will they endorse? Reports on morning shows say McCain is going to endorse Mittens today. We shall see.
You started off saying Iowa was ‘irrelevant’ and then listed a myriad of reasons why it is not only relevant, but this year it was crucial.
Bachmann and Perry are out. Santorum is in the spotlight after being virtually ignored by EVERYONE since the process began, and romney was totally embarrassed after outspending Santorum a hundred to one.
The dynamic completely changed last night. Maybe it is irrelevant to you, but I’ll bet it is not irrelevant to a whole lot of other people who will see things a lot differently today. romney can be beaten soundly now that Conservatives won’t be splitting their botes ten ways from Sunday.
Relevant? You betcha.
“He may even be wise to abandon NH to concentrate on more-friendly environs of SC and Florida.”
Why? If he finishes second, he gains even more delegates on Newt.
So far it’s Santorum 1, Newt 0. Doesn’t matter what the national polls say, it’s all up to the individual states.
Based on 2008 I wouldn’t call a McCain endorsement a positive thing for Romney.
Well, Newt leads nationally and more importantly thoughout the South... yet he came in 4th
Santorum will never win another state
Irrelevant? You betcha
I’ll take that bet.
In the age of the Internet, throw out all of the old conventional wisdom.
The media might have been able to squelch the Iowa results from the masses, with the Internet, that’s not possible.
Santorum’s campaign will skyrocket because of Iowa.
Since Jul 26, 1998
verity hasn’t created an about page.
verity, an unknown COWARD since 1998
So WHY don’t you post SOMETHING about yourself??!!
What was the deal with that anyway?
When I shut down the TV someone had lost the official tally but local officials had "agreed" that Romney had the most votes..?
“Is there is a reason to trust a pundit claiming a candidate is “finished” after this “surprise”?”
It’s not a matter of “trusting” Pundit Reaganite Republican; its just deciding if his political analysis is sound or not. The point of his analysis seemed to be the media has it all wrong and the momentum factor out of Iowa is negligible and does not lead to a Santorum victory as the eventual nominee. You said the following yourself: Santorum and Romney 25% (each). Since Santorum is the only one Romney and the media have not applied scorched earth campaign tactics onto - it looks to me like we have a Romney-Santorum ticket to look forward to. What could be more establishment than a team of two northeastern Lawyer-MBAs?
“Are we to trust these pundits who claim that Gingrich will sweep the South or that Santorum’s rise was only one time?”
Well, if Reaganite Republican was right that the Iowa caucus results involving four one-hundredths of 1% of voters and Iowa and New Hampsire delegate results for Romney would be a total of TWELVE delegates of 1,144 needed for nomination - perhaps he has made some very valid points. I don’t think voters in the remaining states are impressed with Iowa OR New Hampshire. Jim Robinson had a thread going yesterday regarding Gingrich and the long haul in this 2012 primary process that had a lot of excellent analysis in it.
Diner owners,Motel 6’s and TV stations stock up before they
begin their four year hibernation.
NDAA McCain will endorse Romney. Thank God McCain has his finger on the pulse of America.
I’m never going to vote for santorum, but I wanted to see how he’s doing today in campaign donations, not knowing his web address I tried googling him and his web site is un-searchable, all I get is web sites professing his views on homosexuality, that seems like it might be a problem!
“But I don’t see anyone who stuck with Bachman this long suddenly becoming a Romneybot.”
What if Bachmann becomes, or IS a Romneybot? I’ve seen a whole slew of posts saying Bachmann’s run is really aimed at the vice-presidency and she was being a Romney surrogate in her over-the-top attacks on her rival conservatives.
>>He may even be wise to abandon NH to concentrate on more-friendly environs of SC and Florida.<<
“Why? If he finishes second, he gains even more delegates on Newt.
Because the actual number of delegates available to him in New Hampshire is miniscule - and if Santorum is trying to eclipse Gingrich as the conservative alternative to Romney, he has to stop Gingrich from assuming that role in the South.
“So far its Santorum 1, Newt 0.”
Not exactly. If you are focused on delegate counts, in proportional representation states, Gingrich does not get “0”.
“Doesnt matter what the national polls say, its all up to the individual states.”
Yes, and these polls broken down by the individual upcoming states, post-New Hampshire, indicate Gingrich having a better chance to take these states than Santorum.
Good thoughts, especially now that I’m seeing on the sidebar she dropped out. And Perry going on to SC!? On TV they were saying it was Perry who was about to go home. I guess Perry thinks those Bachmann votes are his, not Santorums’!
Makes me think of two guys in a race, one wins and the other disgruntled says:
.." it didn't mean a thing, as I hurt my foot on the down-slope, so I gave up the win...I didn't TRY to win..I have to be careful; as I have a big race coming up soon!"
I can truthfully say I “am undecided”, but Iowa made a difference to me in leaning toward a candidate who I have watched and admired over the years— hard working, beat the payment-meet the people, principled guy, Santorum, and hope he gets more media attention and picking up votes in “the BIG states that matter” that people tout about.
I gained further respect for the guy. Deserves a toast for his performance against a guy who probably owned the vineyard.
Everyone likes the underdog—without big money, or flashy big ads to easily see one through.
The MSM, all the political pundits were all out for Iowa, and moving on to NH, SC;
so must have meant something to someone, somewhere!
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