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Yard Signs Tell the Tale in New Hampshire (Barack Obama is in big trouble next November.)
PJ Media ^ | January 5, 2012 | Andrew Boucher

Posted on 01/05/2012 6:55:04 AM PST by Kaslin

Drive through New Hampshire in the next week, and you will see a staggering number of Republican yard signs. They’re everywhere: It seems like every third house has a sign up. They’re on front yards and in the windows of businesses. They’re in every neighborhood representing every demographic. They’re in front of homes along rural roadways, in front of suburban homes in the big southern towns, and in the conservative blue-collar neighborhoods of Manchester.

And there are even Republican yard signs all over the capital city of Concord — a largely Democratic-leaning town in this swing state.

Barack Obama is in big trouble next November.

In elections, yard signs provide the essential “social proof” to back up the television ads, debate performances, and stump speeches — especially when it comes time to close the deal with relatively apolitical or undecided voters.

But this is a Republican primary. What do January yard signs have to do with Barack Obama?

Here is a secret: If you want to predict a general election, count the number of Republican yard signs in “purple” neighborhoods.

Take a drive through an upper-middle class community in a swing state. Find the subdivision where there’s a coffee shop on the corner and an organic grocery store not too far away, ideally where the Priuses outnumber the SUV’s… but not by much. Find the block where the adults are academics, professionals, or government employees and where every household has a couple of kids in the public schools. The voter breakdown in the ideal “purple” neighborhood is about a third Republican, a third Democrat, and a third independent.

Welcome to Concord, New Hampshire. Or Fort Collins, Colorado. Or northern Virginia. Or Raleigh, North Carolina. Or the suburbs and exurbs and small cities in swing states around the country.

Now count the Republican yard signs. Signs are not polling data, and they are certainly not election returns, but a yard sign is a definitive measure of three things: Support (obviously); intensity; and – most importantly — a voter’s willingness to make his political opinions known to his neighbors. A yard sign — especially in a “hostile” environment — is a symbol of political courage, a sign of an impending shift in public opinion.

The early returns from the yard sign tallies are in: Voters in New Hampshire want their neighbors to know that they are voting Republican this year.

That is a big deal. If you live in a conservative community in a Republican state, it is hard to understand the open hostility towards Republicans in “purple” neighborhoods. Put up a sign in your yard and prepare to have your neighbors approach (or accost) you at the grocery store. Prepare to have them bring your kids into the discussion. Prepare to have your business boycotted. There is no separation between the personal and the political on the left, so in a swing state a sign in your yard marks you as a target.

We saw this effect in 2006. My postmortem on the 2006 election debacle was titled “Cocktail Parties and Yard Signs.” It focused on the small city of Fort Collins, Colorado, a college town of about 130,000 people. The city leans Democrat, the county leans Republican. The state is a battleground. The thesis was simple: Republicans in Fort Collins were embarrassed — almost afraid — to put Republican signs up in their front yards.

The “cocktail parties” part of the title refers to how fast Republicans will disavow their own nominee in non-political settings. Go to a cocktail party and listen for the telltale phrase “I’m a registered Republican, but…” Even worse, listen to someone who you know to be a staunch conservative Republican describe themselves as an “independent who votes for the person more than the party.”

The “Cocktail Parties and Yard Signs” effect means that the pressure from the left has won. It means that a certain level it is no longer “socially acceptable” to be a Republican. Republican candidates do not have a chance in that climate.

Actually, we all experienced a similar form of pressure in 2008 on Facebook. When I describe Facebook to political clients, I describe it simply as a front porch in a tightly-knit neighborhood. Social media provides limitless opportunity for word-of-mouth campaigning, but like in the real world, when you put a sign out, you are going to hear from your neighbors. On Facebook, the only candidate on the ballot in 2008 was Barack Obama, and we all heard from our friends, relatives, and long-lost high-school buddies about Hope and Change. That’s the dynamic every cycle in “purple” neighborhoods.

Which brings us back to New Hampshire.

New Hampshire is a purple state. Twenty years ago it was one of the most Republican states in the country, but Bill Clinton (twice), John Kerry, and Obama all carried the state in general elections. The Republicans lost the governorship in 1996, and the Democrats made relatively consistent gains over the following decade. After the 2006 election, Democrats held both Congressional seats, the governorship, and both houses in the legislature (for the first time since 1911). The 2010 election saw the pendulum swing decisively back to the Republicans, but no one was sure if that would translate beyond 2010 and into the presidential race.

Today there are Republican signs up all over New Hampshire. Most tellingly, there are Republican signs up throughout the city of Concord — more than I have ever seen. It is “safe” to tell your neighbors that you are voting Republican.

Barack Obama is in big trouble.


TOPICS: Politics; Society
KEYWORDS: 2012; 2012election; election2012; elections; fail; hopeychangey; impeach; nobama2012; nodemocrats2012; obama; obamadepression

1 posted on 01/05/2012 6:55:05 AM PST by Kaslin
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To: Kaslin

Interesting post, thanks.


2 posted on 01/05/2012 6:58:36 AM PST by truthkeeper (Vote Against Barack Obama in 2012! (That's my story and I'm sticking to it.))
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To: Kaslin
Which is the very reason I don't go to cocktail parties....I would start a riot because I DON'T BACK DOWN TO COMMIES AND WIMPS!

Better off to just stay home....who wants to be around a bunch of imbeciles anyway....

3 posted on 01/05/2012 7:01:38 AM PST by rightwingextremist1776
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To: rightwingextremist1776

It has been said that you should never ask a person about their political ideology because if they are conservative you will figure it out and if they are liberal you run the risk of embarrassing them publicly.


4 posted on 01/05/2012 7:07:33 AM PST by Baynative (The penalty for not participating in politics is you will be governed by your inferiors.)
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To: rightwingextremist1776

same here.
If I ever hear some left wing screw ball I never back away but they do once I speak up against them.

They’re used to people shutting up and agreeing with them but once you question them , give them some facts they look like deers in the headlights.

Whether it be homosexual marriage to the debt to the dumb ass in the white house


5 posted on 01/05/2012 7:07:50 AM PST by manc (Marriage is between one man and one woman.Trolls get a life, I HATE OUR BIASED LIBERAL MEDIA.)
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To: Kaslin
If yard signs were an indicator of who our next president was going to be...then President McCain and Vice President Palin would be running for re-election. I remember reading the same articles back before the 2008 election: "I don't see any BHO yard signs...bumper stickers...this election is going to be a landslide!" Yada yada yada.

Anecdotal evidence is meaningless, as is poll data this far out.

6 posted on 01/05/2012 7:08:03 AM PST by NELSON111
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To: Kaslin

All the more reason Hussein is gearing up for as many frauds votes as possible and there won’t be enough of us to couteract this (already posted here.—

Probe reveals feds pressuring agents to rush immigrant visas – even if fraud is feared..
http://www.thedaily.com/page/2012/01/03/010312-news-immigration-strife-1-3/


7 posted on 01/05/2012 7:09:28 AM PST by TribalPrincess2U (NOT VOTING gets 0bamao re-elected.)
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To: Kaslin
A ROMNEY AND WHOMEVER CONSERVATIVE FIGUREHEAD VP CHOICE SIGN WILL NEVER BE IN FRONT OF MY HOUSE!!!
8 posted on 01/05/2012 7:12:50 AM PST by Sybeck1 (Mitt Romney, a piss poor choice)
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To: manc
If I ever hear some left wing screw ball I never back away but they do once I speak up against them.

Good, and I'm sure that it makes you feel better, but it's still a waste of oxygen.

Liberalism is a religion. Might as well try to debate theology with the Pope.

9 posted on 01/05/2012 7:12:54 AM PST by wbill
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To: rightwingextremist1776

That is one way of spreading the Right Word.

Another way is to have a tactful chat centered on the Right’s obligation to proclaim “Game ON!”

BTW, if the left misbehaves, just point out to them that “truth is always painful to those who live in denial. “ They own the problem, not you.


10 posted on 01/05/2012 7:19:21 AM PST by Graewoulf (( obama"care" violates the 1890 Sherman Anti-Trust Law, AND is illegal by the U.S. Constitution.))
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To: wbill

not really.
One woman used to always come down to the kids soccer games harping on about who is a Nazi etc.

Screw that I confronted the big mouth and gave her facts, and questions right in front of her usual crowd.

Not once since then has she opened her big trap and since then I’ve had people come up to me and tell me thank you for shutting her up, thank you for facing her and giving her info of which they had no clue because the facts I gave were not what were being given from the MSM of which they watch

shutting up is what the left wants, speaking up against them and facing them is what they hate.
The more speak up the more the left will be exposed


11 posted on 01/05/2012 7:23:46 AM PST by manc (Marriage is between one man and one woman.Trolls get a life, I HATE OUR BIASED LIBERAL MEDIA.)
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To: Kaslin
In 2008, Iowa and New Hampshire went for Obama by 10 points. Why should they have any say in who the Republican nominee is in 2012?

I think the Republic Party should have 10 weeks of primaries - 5 states each. The first week should go to the 5 states which voted most heavily for the Republican ticket in the previous election. The next week, states 6 through 10. After that, states 11 through 15, etc.

I wouldn't count yard signs in New Hampshire as indicative of anything to do with the general election. Obama is running unopposed for his party's nomination, while half a dozen Republicans are still in the race for their party's nomination.

In 2008, there were open primaries on both sides, and a noticeable enthusiasm gap between Democrats, salivating between the possibility of electing the first black or the first female US President, and Republicans, flipping a coin to figure out whether to pick Romney or McCain.

In any given year where the sitting president is uncontested in the primaries, I imagine that the yard signs in New Hampshire heavily favor the out-of-power party. In 2004, for example, there were probably lots of Democrat yard signs, and in 1996 there were probably lots of Republican yard signs.
12 posted on 01/05/2012 7:24:51 AM PST by Question Liberal Authority (I also think that Obama should be defeated.)
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To: wbill
Good, and I'm sure that it makes you feel better, but it's still a waste of oxygen.

Not really. I do not expect to convert the committed leftist/progressive. There are plenty of uncommitted listeners, however.

13 posted on 01/05/2012 7:34:06 AM PST by marktwain
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To: Kaslin
Barack Obama is in big trouble next November.

Oh Lordy, I hope so.

14 posted on 01/05/2012 7:37:36 AM PST by Bloody Sam Roberts ("The price of freedom is willingness to do sudden battle anywhere, anytime..." - Robert A. Heinlein)
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To: Kaslin
"Barack Obama is in big trouble next November....."
15 posted on 01/05/2012 7:44:43 AM PST by AngelesCrestHighway
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To: Kaslin

“Barack Obama is in big trouble.”...

The media is hiding the disaster if front of our eyes....We see it...we know it...Stick a fork in it, Obango is done!


16 posted on 01/05/2012 7:47:56 AM PST by AngelesCrestHighway
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To: Kaslin

Unless there are bunches of Hillary signs out I would
not jump to that conclusion.


17 posted on 01/05/2012 7:53:15 AM PST by RitchieAprile
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To: Kaslin

18 posted on 01/05/2012 7:53:57 AM PST by AngelesCrestHighway
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To: marktwain
There are plenty of uncommitted listeners, however.

That statement reminds me of this...

Very true stuff.

19 posted on 01/05/2012 7:58:30 AM PST by Future Snake Eater (Don't stop. Keep moving!)
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To: Kaslin
Frankly, I see a lot more political signs along on the main roads and at intersections right now (planted there by campaign workers) than I do in people's yards here in New Hampshire.

At the moment, we are being invaded by the Media Hoard as well as by the candidates themselves, as we are every four years at this time. Satellite trucks from Boston, New York and beyond are setting up in Manchester and Concord.

We pretend not to like all the attention, but trust me, we do. Personally, I'm looking forward to the first time a mobile cam comes up to me for a "Man-In-The Street" interview - it happens at least once every primary season. I'm going to tell him two things: 1. I haven't made up my mind who to vote for yet, and 2. I'd vote for my dog over Barack Obama because the dog only lifts his leg on my fruit trees, not on the whole damn country.

20 posted on 01/05/2012 8:02:42 AM PST by andy58-in-nh (America does not need to be organized: it needs to be liberated.)
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To: rightwingextremist1776
Which is the very reason I don't go to cocktail parties....I would start a riot because I DON'T BACK DOWN TO COMMIES AND WIMPS!

Thanks for reminding me why I gave up alcohol completely the Lenten after BO became president. And I've never gone back. Alcohol interferes with a good aim.

21 posted on 01/05/2012 8:29:25 AM PST by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: Vigilanteman
"Alcohol interferes with a good aim".... agreed...
22 posted on 01/05/2012 8:36:40 AM PST by AngelesCrestHighway
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To: Kaslin
"A yard sign — especially in a 'hostile' environment — is a symbol of political courage"

It certainly is. And it's going to become moreso!

23 posted on 01/05/2012 8:43:58 AM PST by Savage Beast (Save the Republic! Vote Republican!)
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To: Kaslin

Ya know sumpin’ funny? The one guy out here who had a big Hussein sign and bumper sticker on his car isn’t sporting them these days.


24 posted on 01/05/2012 8:56:22 AM PST by bgill (The Obama administration is staging a coup. Wake up, America, before it's too late.)
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To: rightwingextremist1776

You don’t go to the “right” parties.....shoulda been at my house this month....ALL conservatives!!!


25 posted on 01/05/2012 8:59:35 AM PST by goodnesswins (Adversity makes us bitter or better.)
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To: goodnesswins

I’ll check my mailbox again, but I haven’t seen the invite as of yet.....


26 posted on 01/05/2012 9:30:23 AM PST by rightwingextremist1776
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To: Kaslin
Take a drive through a cemetery in a swing state. Find the towns where the community activists outnumber the poll watchers but not by much. Find the block where the requests for absentee ballots are sent.

Welcome to Chicago, Illinois. Or Oakland, California. Or any state in the Northeast. Or the suburbs and exurbs and small cities in big union states around the country.

Sorry, it's not what you see. It's what you don't see.

27 posted on 01/05/2012 9:39:18 AM PST by Blogatron (Brought to you by The American Frog Council; 'Frog - The other green meat')
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To: rightwingextremist1776

Well..it would require a 6 hour flight for a 5 hour party....not sure you’d be interested...LOL.


28 posted on 01/05/2012 9:44:15 AM PST by goodnesswins (Adversity makes us bitter or better.)
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To: goodnesswins

depends on the party I guess......


29 posted on 01/05/2012 9:51:45 AM PST by rightwingextremist1776
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