Skip to comments.Update: Delegate Math Number Projections a/o Super Tuesday
Posted on 02/15/2012 8:03:04 PM PST by parksstp
As of the End of Super Tuesday based on Current Polling (State by State Breakdown in Google Doc Link)
Romney - 324
Santorum - 241
Newt - 150
Paul - 51
Uncommitted/Undecided Superdelegates: 33
(Excerpt) Read more at docs.google.com ...
Based on Polling and Current Known data, I think I've come up with the most likely results. Romney and Paul's numbers are probably the most likely. While you might disagree about the delegate distribution between Gingrich/Santorum, it's highly likely they'll have close to 390 delegates combined in one form or another and will be ahead (combined) of Romney's total delegate count.
I used http://www.thegreenpapers.com to review and make sure I was allocating delegates correctly. Also took into account Gingrich and Santorum's ballot issues in VA and OH.
The race is going to go on for awhile.
Feel free to critique or if you have any questions, or if I missed an allocation rule somewhere, let me know. This isn't set in stone. All these allocations are estimates.
I think Newt has to do better than that to stay in the race.
If he does finish that low at that point, he may as well endorse Santorum.
Thanks for your hard work, but I fear Dole and GHWB will get their man.
Looks like Texas may very well miss Super Tuesday. Latest estimate is that we won’t vote until late May for anyone!
Recent polls, mostly from ARG and PPP(alas!) seem to show Santorum digging into Romney’s areas. For example, he has nearly caught up in Arizona, has pulled ahead in Ohio (not sure which 3 CD he is not in there), and is in first, followed by Newt in Tennessee. It might be lower for Romney than you are planning, which is a good thing. It’s hard to figure Paul voters.
Excellent work Parksstp. Make sure you eat three good meals each day, drink lots of water, get 8 hours of sleep each night and don’t forget your vitamins. We appreciate your input and need you to stay healthy.
And how about a ping list?
I think Mitt and his SuperPAC’s advertising will blunt some of Santorum’s surge. But, I think for the most part this looks like accurate work.
If you ARE right on it all except Santorum manages to flip Arizona... That would make pretty much a dead heat for delegate count Santorum vs Romney. I believe that would crush Romney's message-ability both positive and negative.
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