Skip to comments.MA GOP Poll: Romney 64% Santorum 16% Paul 7% Newt 6% (Delegate Info Included)
Posted on 02/19/2012 7:09:19 AM PST by parksstp
Latest MA GOP Primary Poll: Romney 64% Santorum 16%, Paul 7%, Newt 6%
Details at http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Here's the Delegate Allocation Rules in Mass per The Green Papers (http://wwww.thegreenpapers.com
Tuesday 6 March 2012 (tentative): 38 of 41 delegates to the Republican National Convention are proportionally allocated to presidential contenders based on the statewide results of today's Massachusetts Presidential Primary. A mandatory 15 percent threshold is required in order for a presidential contender to be allocated National Convention delegates. [Plan for the selection of delegates. I. 1.4, 1.5; IV. 4.1, 4.2]
After the primary, the Allocation Committee meets to determine how to apportion the 38 pledged National Convention Delegates to those Presidential contenders receiving at least 15% of the statewide vote. The number of delegates allocated to each candidate = (vote received by that candidate) ÷ (total votes of all candidates receiving at least 15% of the vote). The Allocation Committee determines how rounding of fractions is to be handled.
There are 27 District delegates (3 from each of the state's 9 Congressional Districts). There are 11 At-Large delegates.
This is what the Allocation Committee did in 2008: The statewide Romney/McCain vote was split 55.5% to 44.5% and the state had 40 delegates. Using that ratio, the delegates were split Romney 22 to McCain 18. Using that same ratio, the 10 CDs were split Romney 6 to McCain 4. The 4 Congressional districts that McCain had his highest percentage of the vote in (whether he carried the district or not) elected 2 McCain delegates and 1 Romney delegate while the remaining 6 CDs elected 2 Romney delegates and 1 McCain delegate. The At-Large delegates were then split between the two candidates to achieve the 22 to 18 delegate allocation.
In addition, 3 party leaders, the National Committeeman, the National Committeewoman, and the chairman of the Massachusetts's Republican Party, will attend the convention as unpledged delegates by virtue of their position."
Okay, what this means for Santorum. Let's keep it Simple. Let's say 100,000 people voted and Romney got 85,000 and Santorum got 15,000 and they are the only two candidates above the 15% threshhold.
In this situation, Romney would be awarded 2 delegates for each of MA's 9 CD's.(8.5 rounded up to 9). This would be expected. HOWEVER, MA doesn't appear to have a WTA by CD system no matter how large Romney's win in, so if Santorum/Newt meets the 15% threshhold, they will qualify for a delegate in each of the CDs for at least 9 delegates. And, if someone one of them gets to 20%, they'll win 8 delegates from 8 CD's, and 2 delegates from 1 CD, based on how McCain and Romney were split.
Additionally, the 11 at large delegates woule be allocated as 10 for Romney and Santorum 1. If Santorum made it to 20%, it would be 9 for Romney, 2 for Santorum.
What this means is that if the Anti-Romney's are smart, they can deny Romney up to 10-12 delegates in his true liberal home state.
Based on this poll, the distribution would be something like the following:
Romney (2 delegates for each CD + 10 delegates at large + 3 Superdelegates) = 31
Anti Romney (1 delegate for each CD + 1 delegate at large) = 10
It may not seem like a significant number, but despite the fact Romney is probably going to sweep liberal Mass, still being able to deny him almost 25% of his home state's delegates would be quite significant.
Again, this relies on one of the Anti-Romney's finishing with at least 15%. If they all fall below it, Mass will be WTA for Romney.
So Newt/Santorum supporters in Mass, make sure you vote the right way whichever it is on Super Tuesday. It is the ONLY way to stop Romney from sweeping the delegates in Mass.
ping (or however that’s done).
This is important stuff. If we allow Romney to sweep all the delegates in Mass because we can’t coalesce around an Anti-Romney in liberal Mass, we will have no one to blame but ourselves.
With results like this no wonder people stopped believing in Free polls...
Thanks for the info.
Come on, folks...If you’re a mindless idiot, what’s not to like about romney?
I don’t look forward to campaigning for Santorum in MA and trying to inform people of the 15% rule. Even campaign vols and staff in NH were not interested in the 10% rule there (RS and NG both got 9.5%).
Maybe I will go to VT.
10 out of 10 Mindless idiots approve of Obomneycare...that's how we got Obamacare... : (
This is to be expected in Massachusetts.