Posted on 03/03/2012 11:29:51 AM PST by jacknhoo
As the presidential primary draws near in Tennessee, some hard decisions face us. Newt Gingrich to me is the top candidate. Smart, experienced and a great debater with the history of solid results to get it done.
In his time as speaker he stood up to the media, balanced budgets, cut unemployment to half what it is now and did a wealth of other great things like reforming our welfare system.
He would make an outstanding president.
Unfortunately, politics is a cruel mistress. Things shift and momentum turns. After South Carolina 2 mediocre debates and some missteps (such as pushing moon colonies) in Florida, he left the door open to Rick Santorum. Rick took his opportunities and made the most of them by winning 3 states in a row. Dropping Newt to a distant third in almost all polling.
I was hoping Newt could re surge with a strong debate before Michigan. While he showed well, it was not to be. In Michigan and Arizona he stayed down at the bottom With Santorum and Romney battling it out up top. After the Santorum second place in Michigan and Arizona I know Newt was hoping for a momentum shift but that has not really happened either.
Now the moderate wing is trying to close it down saying the divided primary is hurting the party and we all need to get behind Romney and just hang it up. Romney keeps "winning" without gaining plurality and is racking up the delegates.
Nothing would make moderates happier then a continued split field to keep Romney in front until everyone just coalesce behind him. I have seen it too many times in the past here in Tennessee. Multiple conservatives divide the field and the moderate wins without ever getting over 50%. Polling shows Obama is nearly unelectable because of his unpopularity in key swing states. The only question is, who will win the primary. While I could support a moderate (Romney) over a liberal (Obama), I would much prefer a conservative over a moderate and a clear difference in policy will keep that split wide.
Here is where it gets hard. After super Tuesday without a coalition of the conservatives, voter fatigue and the moderate screams of "Just give it to Romney. He is inevitable!" will be overpowering. With no slew of debates to propel Newt back up to the top and too many states and not enough money to buy the media needed for a drastic sea change before super Tuesday it will stay close to where it is now. Divided, with one monied moderate and several conservatives ripping each other to pieces for second place.
Something has to change.
Now.
While I would personally prefer Newt and think he would make a great president, it is clearly getting too late for him to come back. As much as it pains me to say it, the conservative with the momentum and ability to still make it happen is Rick Santorum. Not that Rick is bad. In fact he is great in many ways, pro life, strong conservative credentials, pro family and a lot of the same ideas Newt has. It just hurts because my wishes for Newt to do well are so strong.
Unfortunately, while I am twisted inside because of my loyalty to Newt, my loyalty must first lie with my country and getting a country with a conservative leader must take precedence to my own personal whims of fancy.
Therefore, As of now, I am stepping down as the statewide co chairman for Newt Gingrich and throwing all of my support behind Rick Santorum. Going with me are the top 3 second congressional district delegates for Newt (Dr. Lenard Brown, Dr. Aaron Margulise and Scott Smith). We all now throw our support behind Rick Santorum and hope for his success. We encourage other people who are supporting other candidates (not just in Tennessee but across the nation) to follow suit and throw your support behind Rick Santorum so we can coalesce and have a conservative to lead our party, and our country back to victory and prosperity.
R-Knoxville District 7 — Part of Knox County
Stacey can see the writing on the wall.
Newt would win in the fall. He’s the only one who would.
BTTT
Newt would win in the fall. He’s the only one who would.
Even if true, you gotta win the nomination. I would vote for him in the general too but unless people vote for you in the primary. Nobody will get that opportunity. He is running a terrible campaign. I know I will be bashed to Heaven on saying such a thing but it is true. He did well in South Carolina and won the state. He got a little battled in Florida but still came in second place. He should have wiped himself off and said, “Ok second place is not bad. I don’t get delegates but second place is not bad.” He should have gone to Nevada and the mid western states and campaigned there without all the complaining he did over the winner takes all nonsense from Florida. Right or wrong it was not the time to complain. He would have performed well in the mid west if he would have tried. Then he said well I will skip Maine too. Then he said, “Well Michigan and Arizona I will skip.” Now he is basically skipping Washington. He continued to campaign in the very state (Georgia) that he should not need to but he is doing so to excess. So after 23 states at the end of Super Tuesday, he will win 2 states! Two states with just about 1/2 the country voting. If I was Newt, I would fire the entire team and start over. If anyone convinced him to skip all those states they should be questioned to see if they were part of Romney’s team giving Newt bad advice.
There’s something despicable about this and spineless.
Despicable and spineless to recognize the unviability of a given candidate and switching to a candidate who is viable and on equal footing ideologically ?
Blow it out your ass Stacey.
Please post in advance what Ricky will be apologizing for next week.
One thing conflict does expose however are those who don't have the stomach for it.
Another 'sunshine patriot' exposed.
The American People are ready to get rid of Obama.
The issue is replacing him with the BEST conservative we can.
Ping
Calm down.
No, more like a rat jumping a sinking ship before it’s actually sinking. There’s a dishonesty about it. A lack of character. He goes with the flow. Yeah, I don’t like that.
You’d better pray he does win the nomination, or we’ll have two Democrats in the general election. Willard has been waiting years to get even with Conservatives.
Gingrich’s candidacy went nowhere in TN. We all need to get behind Santorum to deliver the death blow to Slick Willard. Stacey recognizes that.
Yes, I am praying that Newt wins the nomination and the GOP would be the Party to actually change something in D.C.
Rick Santorum on Rush Limbaugh re: the birth control slut: “He’s being absurd.”
I’ll stick with Newt, thanks.
No. I’m sticking with Newt.
Newt can’t win in a general election, and that has been the case now for 16 years. I’m also consistently amused/baffled/bewildered by folks who expect that even if he could win that he’s somehow going to be this magic fairy to cure all that ails us. He had the power in 1995 as Speaker and all he did was capitulate to Bubba (over the government shutdown) and gave him a second term on a silver platter. He could’ve delivered the death blow to that abomination and he didn’t. Santorum isn’t my first choice (or even second or third) for President, but he is the only one who can win minus the strangling baggage Newt has around his neck.
Newt and Santorum split the same voters, and as long as Newt remains, in close races, Slick Willard will benefit. That’s the reality.
No, thanks, Stacey.
Then Santorum should get out. :) (You’re not going to change my mind on this. I think Newt is the best man for the job and poll numbers won’t change that.)
A brokered convention doesn’t give anything to Willard.
Does anyone know if the last paragraph means that Rick now has 3 official delegates in TN, instead of none and hoping state GOP will appoint more later? Also does this mean Newt is short 3 TN delegates and and is hoping likewise?
You already recognize Newt’s polling is terrible (and that hasn’t changed since 1995, BTW). Regardless if you believe he is the “best man”, what good is it to insist on running a candidate who can’t win a general election ? Does that make any sense to you ?
The establishment will foist Willard on us, either at the convention or another equally odious RINO offensive to the base (or another Bush, the last thing this party needs). Making sure Santorum gets a clear victory and delegates needed should be paramount at this point to stop any such shenanigans at the convention.
Your premise is faulty. Newt CAN win. That makes perfect sense to me.
How is my premise faulty ? Prove me wrong. Show me the numbers how he can win in November.
Did you think Santorum should have got out when he was polling in single digits and doing poorly? the election is still very fluid and what ever makes you think the Newt supporters will rally behind Rick Santorum? I for one wont vote for him.
That was then and this is now, and the calls were made when the shoe was on the other foot. The only thing “fluid” about the race is whether Slick Willard obtains a win based on splitting the vote or Gingrich doing the right thing in getting out and endorsing Santorum to stop Willard. I know you’re a rather unhinged person, judging from your vile attacks against Mr. & Mrs. Herman Cain, but I hope you’re not seriously admitting you won’t vote for Sen. Santorum in November ? I don’t support Gingrich, but were he the nominee in November, I’d still vote for him.
I’ve always thought that Santorum should get out. He and Paul. Always have, polls not making a difference.
Post #30 awaits your answer.
Gee, thanks. But I don’t have those numbers because I can’t PREDICT the future. Just like the people who are telling Gingrich to get out CAN’T predict the future and those who say he can’t win CAN’T predict. Show me numbers that say Newt can’t win it.
Newt can win in the election, he is the only one who can actually articulate the conservative viewpoint, much the same way Reagan did.
You don’t have the numbers because they don’t exist. Don’t you think that some of us who do take the time to analyze candidacies can figure out which folks can and which folks can’t win ? For a good long time, Santorum’s candidacy was D.O.A., he was a second tier longshot. However, because the very best people who should’ve gotten in and didn’t (or were forced out), Santorum managed to rise up and all of a sudden, he became viable.
It doesn’t matter what Gingrich does, he’s not a winnable candidate. We can rehash his record, his personals, and everything else (or even note his superior debating skills, which nobody denies), but it still boils down to the fact that his approval ratings haven’t changed since late 1995. He is one of the most polarizing political figures in the country, and not in a good way.
Now, any political figure starts out with almost 30, if not 40% of the public against them solely on political I.D., it doesn’t matter how saintly they are. Gingrich not only has that solid 40% opposition, but he has another 20% on top of that. Some polls show him with at or below 30% approval (which means, he carries the absolute base of the party, but not even the entirety, and virtually nothing beyond). One of the iron rules of politics is that you cannot defeat another politician by running someone more unpopular than they are. Zero is ahead by at least 10% on that account.
As it stands, there is almost no scenario by which Newt can take a majority of the Electoral College based on that polling data. He could carry every state that McCain did, and tip 2 or 3 more (IN, NC, maybe VA) and it still wouldn’t be enough. But this is a general election scenario, and he can’t even with this primary.
Anyway, you support whomever you like, that’s your right. I just wish you folks could take a look at the big picture. Sometimes the candidate we want isn’t necessarily the best and most viable.
Again, I challenge any of you guys to come up with the scenario by which he can win either the primary or general. His momentum was killed after SC, and it won’t recover. Nobody denies Gingrich is a good debater, but that’s not enough to win. And lastly, he’s not Reagan. There was only one Reagan. Reagan couldn’t score a victory identical to 1980 or 1984 based on today’s political dynamics. The country has changed, and not for the better. I’m just glad he didn’t live long enough to see the nation coronate a Communist.
There’s that ‘most polarizing political figures’. They did that to Sarah Palin as well. To me that libspeak. I wouldn’t use that again if I were you.
Recognizing the truth is not libspeak, madam. Unfortunately, as Orwell stated, in a time of universal deceit, to speak the truth is a revolutionary act. Gov. Palin (my first choice for President, btw) was assaulted from different groups (all left, of course, from the party establishment to Democrats, etc.) based on blatant lies. Gingrich, unfortunately, has himself to blame for a lot of his high negatives. Most puzzling was that many folks here recognized that... until he ran for President and tossed his known history out the window and acted like he was Reagan’s twin brother.
This is a primary, not a football game.
Ofcourse Newt is going to lose some primaries, but he is going to win some as well.
Repeating a meme is libspeak. That, Sir, is a meme.
You’re engaging in projection, madam. Your candidate blew it, and mostly by his own actions both public and private, and his debating skills couldn’t save him. Screeching “You’re a liberal” for speaking the truth is shameful and beneath the dignity of a FReeper. Conservatives speak and deal in the truth, liberals deal in lies and fantasy world nonsense. You and your colleagues have yet to come up with any scenario whereby Gingrich can win (either the primary or the general), and you’ve already stated you don’t care what the reality is. You don’t win elections by merely wishing and by mindless boosterism.
Gee, if your basis for rejecting Newt is because you can't see how he can win, then you need to have an answer to how Santorum can do so.
Santorum is a lightweight.
How does one ‘screech’ on the internet? Anyway, you’re assuming that Newt is finished and seem to want to cling to that. So, have your fun trying to convince other Newt supporters that it’s true so they’ll go over to your guy. It’s what you and others are doing. You failed to show me the numbers that proved YOUR point as well. I didn’t miss that. As for the dignity of a FReeper? Calling out liberal baloney when one reads it is the duty of a FReeper. The ‘polarizing character’ meme is as liberal as it gets.
No, I’m saying he can’t win. His candidacy all but ended after South Carolina. He just placed a distant 4th last night in Washington state, yet it happened to be just about the EXACT amount of votes Santorum needed to defeat Willard. When are you guys gonna wake up and smell the coffee ?
Post #47 goes for you, too. Are you all that stubborn that you’d rather Slick Willard get the nomination despite a clear majority opposing him in the primaries and deprive Conservatives of a candidate in November ? That is abominable.
Anyone who contributes to degrading our best hope to win, is a traitor in their own right.
Exactly. Why we ALL need to get behind Rick Santorum.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.