Skip to comments.Tough times, tough decisions(Sen Campfield dumps Newt)
Posted on 03/03/2012 11:29:51 AM PST by jacknhoo
As the presidential primary draws near in Tennessee, some hard decisions face us. Newt Gingrich to me is the top candidate. Smart, experienced and a great debater with the history of solid results to get it done.
In his time as speaker he stood up to the media, balanced budgets, cut unemployment to half what it is now and did a wealth of other great things like reforming our welfare system.
He would make an outstanding president.
Unfortunately, politics is a cruel mistress. Things shift and momentum turns. After South Carolina 2 mediocre debates and some missteps (such as pushing moon colonies) in Florida, he left the door open to Rick Santorum. Rick took his opportunities and made the most of them by winning 3 states in a row. Dropping Newt to a distant third in almost all polling.
I was hoping Newt could re surge with a strong debate before Michigan. While he showed well, it was not to be. In Michigan and Arizona he stayed down at the bottom With Santorum and Romney battling it out up top. After the Santorum second place in Michigan and Arizona I know Newt was hoping for a momentum shift but that has not really happened either.
Now the moderate wing is trying to close it down saying the divided primary is hurting the party and we all need to get behind Romney and just hang it up. Romney keeps "winning" without gaining plurality and is racking up the delegates.
Nothing would make moderates happier then a continued split field to keep Romney in front until everyone just coalesce behind him. I have seen it too many times in the past here in Tennessee. Multiple conservatives divide the field and the moderate wins without ever getting over 50%. Polling shows Obama is nearly unelectable because of his unpopularity in key swing states. The only question is, who will win the primary. While I could support a moderate (Romney) over a liberal (Obama), I would much prefer a conservative over a moderate and a clear difference in policy will keep that split wide.
Here is where it gets hard. After super Tuesday without a coalition of the conservatives, voter fatigue and the moderate screams of "Just give it to Romney. He is inevitable!" will be overpowering. With no slew of debates to propel Newt back up to the top and too many states and not enough money to buy the media needed for a drastic sea change before super Tuesday it will stay close to where it is now. Divided, with one monied moderate and several conservatives ripping each other to pieces for second place.
Something has to change.
While I would personally prefer Newt and think he would make a great president, it is clearly getting too late for him to come back. As much as it pains me to say it, the conservative with the momentum and ability to still make it happen is Rick Santorum. Not that Rick is bad. In fact he is great in many ways, pro life, strong conservative credentials, pro family and a lot of the same ideas Newt has. It just hurts because my wishes for Newt to do well are so strong.
Unfortunately, while I am twisted inside because of my loyalty to Newt, my loyalty must first lie with my country and getting a country with a conservative leader must take precedence to my own personal whims of fancy.
Therefore, As of now, I am stepping down as the statewide co chairman for Newt Gingrich and throwing all of my support behind Rick Santorum. Going with me are the top 3 second congressional district delegates for Newt (Dr. Lenard Brown, Dr. Aaron Margulise and Scott Smith). We all now throw our support behind Rick Santorum and hope for his success. We encourage other people who are supporting other candidates (not just in Tennessee but across the nation) to follow suit and throw your support behind Rick Santorum so we can coalesce and have a conservative to lead our party, and our country back to victory and prosperity.
Newt can’t win in a general election, and that has been the case now for 16 years. I’m also consistently amused/baffled/bewildered by folks who expect that even if he could win that he’s somehow going to be this magic fairy to cure all that ails us. He had the power in 1995 as Speaker and all he did was capitulate to Bubba (over the government shutdown) and gave him a second term on a silver platter. He could’ve delivered the death blow to that abomination and he didn’t. Santorum isn’t my first choice (or even second or third) for President, but he is the only one who can win minus the strangling baggage Newt has around his neck.
Newt and Santorum split the same voters, and as long as Newt remains, in close races, Slick Willard will benefit. That’s the reality.
No, thanks, Stacey.
Then Santorum should get out. :) (You’re not going to change my mind on this. I think Newt is the best man for the job and poll numbers won’t change that.)
A brokered convention doesn’t give anything to Willard.
Does anyone know if the last paragraph means that Rick now has 3 official delegates in TN, instead of none and hoping state GOP will appoint more later? Also does this mean Newt is short 3 TN delegates and and is hoping likewise?
You already recognize Newt’s polling is terrible (and that hasn’t changed since 1995, BTW). Regardless if you believe he is the “best man”, what good is it to insist on running a candidate who can’t win a general election ? Does that make any sense to you ?
The establishment will foist Willard on us, either at the convention or another equally odious RINO offensive to the base (or another Bush, the last thing this party needs). Making sure Santorum gets a clear victory and delegates needed should be paramount at this point to stop any such shenanigans at the convention.
Your premise is faulty. Newt CAN win. That makes perfect sense to me.
How is my premise faulty ? Prove me wrong. Show me the numbers how he can win in November.
Did you think Santorum should have got out when he was polling in single digits and doing poorly? the election is still very fluid and what ever makes you think the Newt supporters will rally behind Rick Santorum? I for one wont vote for him.
That was then and this is now, and the calls were made when the shoe was on the other foot. The only thing “fluid” about the race is whether Slick Willard obtains a win based on splitting the vote or Gingrich doing the right thing in getting out and endorsing Santorum to stop Willard. I know you’re a rather unhinged person, judging from your vile attacks against Mr. & Mrs. Herman Cain, but I hope you’re not seriously admitting you won’t vote for Sen. Santorum in November ? I don’t support Gingrich, but were he the nominee in November, I’d still vote for him.
I’ve always thought that Santorum should get out. He and Paul. Always have, polls not making a difference.
Post #30 awaits your answer.
Gee, thanks. But I don’t have those numbers because I can’t PREDICT the future. Just like the people who are telling Gingrich to get out CAN’T predict the future and those who say he can’t win CAN’T predict. Show me numbers that say Newt can’t win it.
Newt can win in the election, he is the only one who can actually articulate the conservative viewpoint, much the same way Reagan did.
You don’t have the numbers because they don’t exist. Don’t you think that some of us who do take the time to analyze candidacies can figure out which folks can and which folks can’t win ? For a good long time, Santorum’s candidacy was D.O.A., he was a second tier longshot. However, because the very best people who should’ve gotten in and didn’t (or were forced out), Santorum managed to rise up and all of a sudden, he became viable.
It doesn’t matter what Gingrich does, he’s not a winnable candidate. We can rehash his record, his personals, and everything else (or even note his superior debating skills, which nobody denies), but it still boils down to the fact that his approval ratings haven’t changed since late 1995. He is one of the most polarizing political figures in the country, and not in a good way.
Now, any political figure starts out with almost 30, if not 40% of the public against them solely on political I.D., it doesn’t matter how saintly they are. Gingrich not only has that solid 40% opposition, but he has another 20% on top of that. Some polls show him with at or below 30% approval (which means, he carries the absolute base of the party, but not even the entirety, and virtually nothing beyond). One of the iron rules of politics is that you cannot defeat another politician by running someone more unpopular than they are. Zero is ahead by at least 10% on that account.
As it stands, there is almost no scenario by which Newt can take a majority of the Electoral College based on that polling data. He could carry every state that McCain did, and tip 2 or 3 more (IN, NC, maybe VA) and it still wouldn’t be enough. But this is a general election scenario, and he can’t even with this primary.
Anyway, you support whomever you like, that’s your right. I just wish you folks could take a look at the big picture. Sometimes the candidate we want isn’t necessarily the best and most viable.
Again, I challenge any of you guys to come up with the scenario by which he can win either the primary or general. His momentum was killed after SC, and it won’t recover. Nobody denies Gingrich is a good debater, but that’s not enough to win. And lastly, he’s not Reagan. There was only one Reagan. Reagan couldn’t score a victory identical to 1980 or 1984 based on today’s political dynamics. The country has changed, and not for the better. I’m just glad he didn’t live long enough to see the nation coronate a Communist.
There’s that ‘most polarizing political figures’. They did that to Sarah Palin as well. To me that libspeak. I wouldn’t use that again if I were you.
Recognizing the truth is not libspeak, madam. Unfortunately, as Orwell stated, in a time of universal deceit, to speak the truth is a revolutionary act. Gov. Palin (my first choice for President, btw) was assaulted from different groups (all left, of course, from the party establishment to Democrats, etc.) based on blatant lies. Gingrich, unfortunately, has himself to blame for a lot of his high negatives. Most puzzling was that many folks here recognized that... until he ran for President and tossed his known history out the window and acted like he was Reagan’s twin brother.
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