Free Republic
Browse · Search
Bloggers & Personal
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Fed Funds Announcement: Gold, Housing, Stocks, Inflation, Unemployment and the Taylor Rule
Confounded Interest ^ | 03/11/2012 | Anthony B. Sanders

Posted on 03/13/2012 11:44:46 AM PDT by whitedog57

The Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee will announce this afternoon whether it is keeping the Fed Funds target at current levels or doing something else. Update: as expected, no changes.

Housing

One asset class that has weighed heavily on The Fed’s mind is the housing market. The Fed Funds Target rate fell off the cliff in January 2008 and fallen steadily to virtually zero. But notice that home prices (as measured by FNC’s 20 Metro house price index) has continued its downward path despite historically low Fed Funds Target rate and mortgage rates.

Stock Market

On the other hand, the S&P 500 index has down extremely since since The Fed dropped their target rate to 0.25% in December 2008. This is the “cheap money rally” that I have written about before.

Gold

Gold, on the other hand, has shown an excellent run-up since 2000 and is seemingly independent of Fed policy.

The Fed does not care about gold. Neither does Warren Buffett.

Unemployment

The Fed is thrilled by improvements in employment, so they are keeping rates low. Hmmm. At this rate of recovery in U6 uemployment, perhaps they should low The Fed Funds Rate to -2,000! [Just kidding].

Inflation

Of course, inflation is something that The Fed would like to increase. The good news is that The Fed DID help to increase inflation (as measured by YoY CPI). With YoY CPI inflation at 2.9%, The Fed could back off, but I doubt it.

Taylor Rule

If we use 2.9% CPI inflation, the Taylor Rule indicates that The Fed should raise the Fed Funds rate (blue line) to 2.05%.

Not great news for savers and retirees. Perhaps they should hold a “Sound Money Parade” like in 1896. But instead of bankers, it should be savers and retirees.

(Excerpt) Read more at confoundedinterest.wordpress.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Government
KEYWORDS: bernanke; bubble; fed; inflation
This dude has great charts. Look at stocks and gold. And then look at housing. Taylor Rule says Fed should have raised Fed Funds Rate to 2.05%. Bernanke is playing with inflation fire and burning savers and retirees.
1 posted on 03/13/2012 11:45:00 AM PDT by whitedog57
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
Bloggers & Personal
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson