Skip to comments.Romney's Got a Delegate Problem
Posted on 04/20/2012 1:20:53 PM PDT by jmstein7
For those of you who did not get or see the memo from Vince Haley, Mitt still has some major problems. Here is the Haley Memo, in relevant part:
[H]ere is the crucial news about why --- with 17 states to go -- the Romney forces are worried, worried that the frontrunner's weakness is surfacing again in the Republican primaries. Here are two crucial news items causing Romneyites to worry.
-- Despite much pressure from Romney forces, Colorado Republicans last weekend at their Denver convention surprised political observers by electing - and by a large margin -- more uncommitted than committed delegates. (The hard count was 23 uncommitted to only 13 for Romney.) This was widely interpreted to mean that rank and file Republicans are still very wary of Governor Romney's candidacy.
-- The other news is from Washington where the news media is all abuzz about a recent Washington Post/ABC poll. Here's the transcript from a recent Meet the Press.
MEET THE PRESS HOST -- .... I want to show you what I think is the most telling number of the week that's come out in polls and it was from The Washington Post/ABC poll that talked about his favorability ratings. Right now Mitt Romney's favorable ratings, 34 percent; unfavorable, 50 percent that is unheard of for a leading contender at this stage of the process.Yes, that's right. At a time when he should be zooming up in the polls Governor Romney is only seen favorably by 34% of the voters. And in other polls out this week he is also losing to Barack Obama.
Look back historically at what Republicans have enjoyed and if you look at the approval ratings that John McCain had at this point in the campaign, 53 percent; George W. Bush and Bob Dole, 49 percent. Again, Mitt Romney down at 34 percent.
Now add to this bad news the fact Romney is once against reinforcing all the doubts conservative have about him. For example, you may have noticed that just two days ago he was again conceding the class warfare argument on economics to the Democrats by saying he wants to take away mortgage deductions for people in some income levels. And just this week he was saying that he is already trying to switch his immigration stand.
So you can see why those saying Mitt Romney has the nomination wrapped up and the race over have plenty of reason for worry.
Wouldn’t it be funny if everyone except Romney dropped out, and Romney still lost!
This is not what Romney said.
I SAW GINGRICH DOWNTOWN IN BUFFALO NY TODAY (I GOT HIS AUTOGRAPH ON A LAWN SIGN)
HE IS *NOT* FOLDING HIS TENT
HE WAS FANTASTIC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
HE IS REDOUBLING HIS EFFORT SINCE NOW THERE IS ONLY ROMNEY AND A REAL CONSERVATIVE TO VOTE FOR, NOT DIVIDE UP THE CONSERVATIVE VOTES 5 WAYS
DON’T GIVE UP!
I get the sense that Romney doesn’t fully understand the primary process. Delegates are not like electors.
The reality is, Mitt is the only one who has a legit shot at winning the nomination with delegate count, even if Santorum keeps his current delegates. So, the others are playing for second at a brokered convention. And there is just no way a 2nd or 3rd place finisher in delegate totals will win a brokered convention. It’s either Mitt, or someone not running currently. And there is not a good chance that someone who hasnt been vetted yet will get nominated. It’s over. This isnt a sporting event where you can score 3 TDs in the 4Q and win despite the odds. This is about ground game, because at this point, over 90% of the people who could vote in the future have made up their mind. All that’s left to do is get people to the polls, and Romney and Santorum were the only two who could consistently do that this season. And for most people, Santorum has dropped out.
It could certainly be humiliating for him if they called the roll at the convention.
Posting the comments in caps all over the place doesn’t help get the word out, it only makes your posts annoying. You should really consider not doing that, it’s obnoxious.
It's the online equivalent of pounding your shoe on the podium.
“Is life so dear or peace so sweet as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery? Forbid it, Almighty God. I know not what course others may take, but as for me, give me liberty or give me death!”
Patrick Henry, speech to the Virginia convention
March 23, 1775
Live Free: GO NEWT!
MITT ROMNEY SHOULD PULL OUT.
ROMNEY THREW ELECTION 2008 TO OBAMA, AND
HAS AGREED TO DO IT AGAIN.
MITT ROMNEY [DEMOCRAT ETCH-A-SKETCH] SHOULD
PULL OUT FOR THE GOOD OF THE USA.
There is much wrong in your analysis, grasshopper. And I don’t think I’ll be taking any decisions based on the opinions of anybody who thinks Boehner has been mostly good.
It’s a good thing that you find so much wrong without naming anything, but feel free to live in your own delusions.
Almost certainly right as far as I quoted. That's the game plan I'm hoping to see play out.
And there is not a good chance that someone who hasnt been vetted yet will get nominated. Its over.
I disagree. It hasn't happened recently because as terrible as some of the establishment nominees have been, even McCain and Dole could get a majority of delegates. The insiders haven't chosen anyone as weak as Romney - ever. We have potential candidates who have been vetted either in previous campaigns or through general public exposure but are not in the race: DeMint, McCain, Palin, Fred Thompson, and many others. It's not over (and, yes, I know that some of the names I mentioned are much less likely than others).
It's likely that the establishment will force Romney down our throats, but it's still far from certain, particularly as they look at how unpopular he is. The problem is that relatively few people even like Romney. His best slogan would be, "I'm not quite as bad as Obama", and that's not going to build much enthusiasm.
Mr. K, they’re right about the all caps, however, I cut you some slack because it’s apparent you were jazzed at shaking Newt’s hand and getting him to autograph your sign.
In the 1920 Republican nominating convention, Warren G. Harding became the Republican Party’s candidate after several rounds of votes. At the opening of the convention, he had only 39 delegates. “Still, at the opening, less than one-half of the delegates were committed...[and] No candidate was able to corral a majority after nine ballots...” (Quote from Wikipedia).
We have 4-months until the convention in Tampa. The day before Santorum suspended his campaign, I wrote on FR that anything can and will happen between now and the convention. I still stand by that statement.
Dear Raider Sam, it ain’t over until the balloon drop in Tampa this August. Until then, I predict a hot-hot-hot summer.
You are doing no harm, and very exciting to see others as enthused about Newt as I am. What they really want is to shut you up, as they are for Mitt.
NEWT IS STILL IN THIS RACE. NEVER GIVE UP AND NEVER FORGET, he is on his way to TAMPA with a plan.
You can go back to 1920 and hope for something, but its just not gonna happen. Its over.