Breaking: Romney did not win nomination

Examiner.com ^ | 5/30/2012 | Jeffrey Phelps

[JohnKinAK]

Incredible developments have emerged spelling out how Romney may not have actually taken the nomination, after all. Even with news circulating like wildfire that Romney secured the Republican nomination with an alleged win in Tuesday's Texas Primary, it seems as though this may not actually be the case. Ironically enough, Romney still may not have even taken Texas, yet. After a careful comb through the numbers, how the race is playing out and what delegate totals are emerging from the states, it seems as though Romney currently has only around half of the 1,144 delegates needed to win the Republican nomination. So, why is the 'national' media acting this way? Are they incorrectly still using the 'estimated' delegate totals, based on the initial caucuses and primaries from each state, while ignoring the actual delegate totals emerging as the states finally begin to conclude their weeks-long delegate selection processes? Advertisement Every 4 years the GOP does the exact same nomination process and all 50 states play their roll in that process. Some states conclude rather quickly, some rather slowly. Most of the states, however, have some sort of post-caucus/primary delegate selection process that can take, up to, a couple months to complete. This virtually renders the ultimate outcome unattainable until the vast majority of the states have fully concluded their delegate selection process. Until then, it is virtually impossible to know exactly what each candidate has, in terms of delegate totals. It is, however, possible to keep track of how the candidates are doing and how many delegates they are likely winning as the states progress in their delegate selection process.
Snip
a tally of the actual delegate totals emerging from each state, Romney has around 600 delegates, Paul around 200.

[JohnKinAK]

Who knows where the truth is?

[brivette]

RUE PAUL!!!!!!!

[mnehring]

Paultard wishful thinking.

[mgstarr]

Fairly delusional.

[richmwill]

Oh of course, the Paulites. They who proclaim “Ron Paul leads every single state and nationwide poll and has won every single state primary thus far. The truth is just being hidden”. Makes me laugh every single time.

[ari-freedom]

a tally of the actual delegate totals emerging from each state, Romney has around 600 delegates, Paul around 200.

But Herman Cain has 9 9 9

[mnehring]

Ron Paul uses Louis Farrakhan’s million man math.

[basil]

I confess to not knowing a lot about how these things are finally determined, but it’s interesting to contemplate to say the least. A lot of us did not vote for the presidential slot on our ballots.............

[TribalPrincess2U]

WHAT THE WHAT?

[Popman]

No kidding Romney didn’t win the nomination.... It hasn’t happened yet

That won’t happen until August in Tampa ...at the convention

[rockabyebaby]

Is there a full moon tonite..........

[TomGuy]

The truth is:

Romney will be the Republican challenging Obama in October.

Gingrich won’t.
Santorum won’t.
Paul won’t.
Bachmann won’t.
Perry won’t.

Per realclearpolitics.com, Romney has accumulated 1169 (1144 needed) and several hundred delegates are still awaiting future primaries.

Romney got it. Barring a direct hit lightning strike, he will be giving the acceptance speech at the GOP Convention.

[ari-freedom]

I dunno...they say Sarah Palin still has a chance.

[SoFloFreeper]

[Ingtar]

Romney has 1,012 delegates bound by law to vote for him on the first round. There are 150+ GOP-E floating delegates that will also vote for him. Though it is mathematically not clinched, there is no other outcome possible. The rules were stacked and voted on four years back (some further back than that.)

[cripplecreek]

I know he didn’t “win” in Michigan.

[bgill]

Newt got two votes from this household. It came down to anyone but Mitt.

[IllumiNaughtyByNature]

Paultard wishful thinking.

BUMP!

[US_MilitaryRules]

That is why I am voting for Newt next Tuesday in kommieforina!

[GSWarrior]

Libertarians may say otherwise but they know in their hearts that Ron Paul will never be president.

[Ron C.]

Total BS article. Romney has 1191 delegates, Paul has 137. California is about to vote. Without question Romney will win more delegates than he needs - or already has.

[TomGuy]

they say Sarah Palin still has a chance

No. She doesn't.

She turned hollywood. She became more interested in reality TV than in politics.

Think about it -- she served 1/2 term as governor and resigned.

She would have to rebuild her political career by running from some state or Congressional seat before ever trying for the big office.

Palin still may garner crowds, but so does disgraced and impeached BJ Clinton.

[Jeff Head]

Yep. I have been watching it and tracking it with each primary and caucus, updating my site with the initial allocations based on the voting at the county levels where possible, and than as states that have to, go through their process and announce the end results (which are almost always very close to the initial, with the exception of Maine).

In MAine Romney won the Primary vote by several percentage points over Paul, but then got taken at the causus/determination level and Paul was awarded 21 delegates and Romney only got 4...which was a travesty IMHO because the vote was actually in Romney's favor, but Paul stacked the determination phase (which most people figure will just play out) and he made off with the Lion's share of the delegates.

Hasn't happened that way since because Romney got wise.

Here's my current tally based on all of that, and it is clear that Romney went over the top in Texas.

2012 GOP Primary/Caucus Tracker.

[Tennessee Nana]

OH NOEZ !!!

[mnehring]

But she rented mini-mall space. I believe!!!

[Retired Greyhound]

Heads up FReepers! There is still a chance to stop the liberal from Mass. who’s no better than Obama.

(Just kidding. It’s a done deal, unless Newt suddenly decides to stop saying nice things about Mitt and starts piling on about Bain Capital again).

[Tennessee Nana]

He didnt “win” GA, SC or TN either...

[LegendHasIt]

Give it up. They are the Borg RINO. You will be assimilated.

[Cicero]

I think romney is pretty certain to be the nominee. It looks as if the others have given up. But it it won’t be absolutely certain until the delegates vote at the convention.

[mnehring]

excellent analysis Jeff

[Talisker]

No. She doesn't. She turned hollywood. She became more interested in reality TV than in politics. Think about it -- she served 1/2 term as governor and resigned. She would have to rebuild her political career by running from some state or Congressional seat before ever trying for the big office. Palin still may garner crowds, but so does disgraced and impeached BJ Clinton.

Hmmm, proper use of declaratory periods for cognitive effect, fairly decent conflation of Sarah with her daughter, a nice bumper-sticker false governorship summation, followed by a derogatory dismissal of her political stature, and finished up with a sexualized-rape equivalency neatly invoked through a Bill-as-rapist comparison.

Finally, a shill that read their entire procedure manual. Well done. Now, go get your gold star from Hillary.

And remember, if you wag your butt hard enough, she might also pat your head.

Oh, and also remember, that you are so important to Hillary that she will always reward your loyalty, and never, ever betray it if she ever comes into power.

Never.

Ever.

[crosshairs]

[RitaOK]

Delighted to see the bed wetting.

The GOPE needs to hear from at least a few of us seriously-done-with-the- establishment types.

Tuesday night they said on local TV that the bound delegates will not be known until New Mexico votes next week, so this is not a surprise to the informed.

All along the media hype has given the entire count to Romney as if these delegates were bound to him just cuz. They are not bound to Romney by the popular vote count, and no one remembers to consider caucas impact.

Many who are NOT voting for Romney are seriously NOT voting for Romney. We are NOT voting for the GOPE.

To make that point, some of us voted for Ron Paul because he is the only one who has a ground game going with the delegates that everyone is ignoring, in order to gain a seat at the table at convention. Not necessarily to win the nomination by any means, but to have a discussion and not a cram down at convention.

Some of us voted for Gingrich, or Santorum, whose campaigns are only suspended not conceeded.

Whatever harbinger we can throw into the cogs of these presumptuous sob’s in the GOPE for putting a socialist at the top of our ticket is all to the good.

[MindBender26]

Who knows where the truth is?

Anyone who passed 5th grade math.

Why post this idiocy here?

[basil]

I just couldn’t vote for him—I felt the same way..........

[Alistair Stratford IV]

“The duck is in the noose.”

[jjotto]

Your Iowa figures are incorrect.

About half of Iowa’s 28 delegates have not been selected. Of the half that have been, a large majority are Paul backers. Paul is certain to get an overall majority.

[broken_arrow1]

I voted for Ron Paul in Texas primary.

[GreyFriar]

So you will be voting for the democrat presidential candidate in November if Mitt gets the republican nomination?

[rightly_dividing]

Newt got our two votes also.

[b9]

Hallelujah!

[Adder]

More breathless bs.

Just stop already.

[09Patriot]

he seems to draw bigger crowds than romney or obama.

[csmusaret]

http://projects.wsj.com/campaign2012/delegates

[cripplecreek]

Or Louisiana or Mississippi. Pretty much the entire south voted against him and in the north he barely won Ohio, tied in Michigan... He buried the opposition under a mountain of money, nasty attacks and a media love affair.

At least in Michigan the two clowns who voted to change the rules were thrown off the Republican National Committee last week.

The GOP has a serious problem in Mitt Romney. He ran like a liberal in the primary but can’t win like one in the general.

[maine yankee]

In MAine Romney won the Primary vote by several percentage points over Paul, but then got taken at the causus/determination level and Paul was awarded 21 delegates and Romney only got 4...which was a travesty IMHO because the vote was actually in Romney’s favor, but Paul stacked the determination phase (which most people figure will just play out) and he made off with the Lion’s share of the delegates.

---

Maine does not have a primary.

Maine has a convention.

Each town’s GOP votes to see who represents them at convention.

These ‘delegates to the state convention nominate and vote for those who will be national delegates to Tampa.

Total delagates : 24

State Chairman is aoutmatic.

National committee man/woman nominated and elected; But will be seated after the November election. (both delegates elected are Ron Paul supporters)

Of the 21 delagates elected 21 are Ron Paul supporters.

Do your homework

[Finny]

So you will be voting for the democrat presidential candidate in November if Mitt gets the republican nomination?

I obviously can't speak for the FReeper you posted that to, but as for myself, if Mitt gets the nom, I will vote on-the-ballot official third party.

Before you retort "Well, that's the same as voting for Obama!" THINK about that fallacy. My vote won't have any affect on the outcome either way in the O vs R contest; it will be entirely neutral.

When the votes are counted, I'm hoping that 62 percent of voters cast their votes AGAINST whichever statist wins, validates and emboldens true conservatives and had-it-with-government Americans, and puts him on the defensive, embattled, weak, and politically vulnerable from the minute the term begins.

Are you going to vote to make the Republican party the one to push government-run health care, on-demand abortion, the one to use government to enforce "global warming" eco-tyranny regulation of energy and food production (look hard at Romney on that one) -- you're voting that the Republican party be the one to back full acceptance of open homosexuality, meaning punishment of people who peacefully reject it -- and you are willing to risk electing a guy who has appointed approximately three times more Democrat liberal judges than Republican conservatives?

So you'll be voting for that?

By the way, b9, thanks for the ping.

[samtheman]

So far, Paul seems to have taken the majority of delegates in, at least, 11 or more states,

Sometimes it's the little things that tip you off -- or in this case, confirm for you -- that the writer is soft in the head.

"At least 11 states" MEANS "11 or more states"... so to say "at least 11 or more states" is a weird redundancy that verifies sloppy thinking.

It reminds me of a sign on a discount story in Jersey City:

All items 99 cents or less, and up.

[samtheman]

So far, Paul seems to have taken the majority of delegates in, at least, 11 or more states,

Sometimes it's the little things that tip you off -- or in this case, confirm for you -- that the writer is soft in the head.

"At least 11 states" MEANS "11 or more states"... so to say "at least 11 or more states" is a weird redundancy that verifies sloppy thinking.

It reminds me of a sign on a discount store in Jersey City:

All items 99 cents or less, and up.

[deport]

Who knows where the truth is?

The Green Papers
Presidential Primaries 2012
Republican Pledged and Unpledged Delegate Summary

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		Republican Pledged and Unpledged Delegate Summary Alphabetically by State   Total Delegates: 2,286 Pledged/Unpledged delegates: 1,871 pledged, 415 unpledged. Need to nominate: 1,144.
Rank	(sort) State	Santorum, R (268)		(available) (541)		Gingrich, N (150)		Romney, W (1,148)		Paul, R (143)		Uncommitted (35)		Bachmann, M (1)		Allocation
		(sort) Pl (247)	(sort) Unpl (21)	(sort) Pl (364)	(sort) Unpl (177)	(sort) Pl (141)	(sort) Unpl (9)	(sort) Pl (1,014)	(sort) Unpl (134)	(sort) Pl (75)	(sort) Unpl (68)	(sort) Pl (29)	(sort) Unpl (6)	(sort) Pl (1)	Unpl (0)	(sort) Pl	(sort) Unpl	(sort) Total
1	Alabama	22	1		2	13		12								47	3	50
2	Alaska	8			3	2		8		6						24	3	27
3	American Samoa								9								9	9
4	Arizona							29								29		29
5	Arkansas				2			33	1							33	3	36
6	California			169	3											169	3	172
7	Colorado	6			0			14		2		14				36		36
8	Connecticut				2			25	1							25	3	28
9	Delaware				0			17								17		17
10	District of Columbia				2			16	1							16	3	19
11	Florida				0			50								50		50
12	Georgia	3				52		21								76		76
13	Guam								9								9	9
14	Hawaii	5			3			9		3						17	3	20
15	Idaho							32								32		32
16	Illinois	12			12			42	3							54	15	69
17	Indiana				17			27	2							27	19	46
18	Iowa		7	0	4		4		6		7						28	28
19	Kansas	33						7								40		40
20	Kentucky				3			42								42	3	45
21	Louisiana	10			26			5				5				20	26	46
22	Maine								2		21		1				24	24
23	Maryland							37								37		37
24	Massachusetts							38	3							38	3	41
25	Michigan	14						16								30		30
26	Minnesota		2		3		1				32		2				40	40
27	Mississippi	13			2	12		12	1							37	3	40
28	Missouri	7		25	3	1		12		4						49	3	52
29	Montana				25				1								26	26
30	Nebraska			32	3											32	3	35
31	Nevada				0			20		8						28		28
32	New Hampshire				0			9		3						12		12
33	New Jersey			50	0											50		50
34	New Mexico			20	3											20	3	23
35	New York						1	92	2							92	3	95
36	North Carolina	6			3	4		36		6						52	3	55
37	North Dakota		6						20		2						28	28
38	Northern Marianas								9								9	9
39	Ohio	25			3			38								63	3	66
40	Oklahoma	14			3	13		13								40	3	43
41	Oregon	3			2	1		18	1	3						25	3	28
42	Pennsylvania		3		32		3		27		5		2				72	72
43	Puerto Rico							20	3							20	3	23
44	Rhode Island							12	3	4						16	3	19
45	South Carolina					23		2								25		25
46	South Dakota			25	3											25	3	28
47	Tennessee	29			1	9		17	2							55	3	58
48	Texas	12		3	3	7		105		18		6		1		152	3	155
49	Utah			40	0											40		40
50	Vermont	4						9		4						17		17
51	Virgin Islands							5	3	1						6	3	9
52	Virginia				3			43		3						46	3	49
53	Washington	10			3	4		16		10						40	3	43
54	West Virginia	2			1			22	2			4				28	3	31
55	Wisconsin	9						33								42		42
56	Wyoming		2		2				23		1		1				29	29
Convention		247	21	364	177	141	9	1,014	134	75	68	29	6	1	0	1,871	415	2,286
Rank	State	Pl	Unpl	Pl	Unpl	Pl	Unpl	Pl	Unpl	Pl	Unpl	Pl	Unpl	Pl	Unpl	Pl	Unpl	Total
		Santorum, R 268		(available) 541		Gingrich, N 150		Romney, W 1,148		Paul, R 143		Uncommitted 35		Bachmann, M 1		Allocation

 

Pl: Pledged or Bound Delegates.
Unpl: Unpledged or Not Bound Delegates

 

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