Skip to comments.Exit polls and the “You can’t say anything bad about the Black Guy” Syndrome
Posted on 06/07/2012 6:58:50 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
The You cant say anything bad about the Black Guy Syndrome loosely translates to Leave me alone Im voting for the Black guy.
This presents a long term problem for Barack Obama. It will cause him to fight blindly for the rest of this election cycle.
Tuesday night the Democrats media cheerleaders deluded themselves with happy face exit polls showing the unions could very well recall Wisconsins Republican Governor Scott Walker.
They especially liked the additional numbers showing Obama up 11 points over Whats His Name. Then real numbers started to come in and the Democrats world collapsed.
Keep in mind the REAL vote showed Scott Walker winning by 53/46.
During the day exit polls showed the race a toss up at 50/50. They also showed Walker up 13 points with men and his Democrat challenger Tom Barrett up by 12 with women.
More than this, they reported Walker was up a single point with Independents and had gotten only 85% of the self identified conservative vote. By just 50/48 respondents approved of Walkers policy of limiting collective bargaining for government workers.
On top of all of this the exit polls said by 52/43 voters have a favorable view of unions. The medias man was about to throw out an evil Republican and critical analysis of the data be damned.
When the real numbers were announced Walker won by 7 points but no one asked how the internals of the exit polls could possibly produce a 7 point victory for the hated Republican.
It felt too good to ask any questions because the same clearly faulty exit polls had Obama up 11 points. What could explain the distance between the exit polls and reality?
" possibilities come to mind. Respondents
lie to pollsters.
(Excerpt) Read more at coachisright.com ...
And there is some self-selection among those polled. If more liberals answer the questions while conservatives tell the pollster to "go @#($*@#( yourself" (or just politely ignore them) then it will look good for liberals until the vote actually counts.
Exit polls do have value. It's when we assume they are absolute truth that we run into trouble. People lie to pollsters. They lie for entertainment (I'm 90%-plus certain that the guy who voted for Obama because he's "a zombie on crack and he'll give us all the meth we want" was lying for fun). They lie to look good to the person asking questions (middle aged men disproporionately claim to have taken liberal positions when responding to cute young college girls doing exit polling). They lie to avoid getting beaten up if union thugs hear that they didn't vote as ordered by the union bosses. They "lie" because they didn't understand the Florida-Miami-Date butterfly ballot or didn't notice the dimpled/hanging chad they left. Still, polls have value because they give us extra insight into how and why people decided their votes.
Not necessarily "lie" as much as the ones voting anti-union or anti-Obama choose NOT TO TALK to pollsters, giving a pollsters a skewed look.
Given the harassment dished out to people to admit to having the "wrong" views, it naturally follows that we're not going to advertise our true feelings to untrusted people.
Live by the race card....
die by the race card.
Professionals, and even most liberal pollsters, account for that. There are known differences in response rates for liberals and conservatives that apply to most elections and usually change only gradually over the years. We can and do adjust exit polling results for the demographics and observed refusal rates for those demographics. The errors come in when, as happened with this recall election, the percentages change radically for a particular election. Somehow, when the unions made this personal and physically threatening, a whole lot more conservatives than usual either refused to respond to polls or lied when they did respond.
On election night on Fox, Shep kept showing these odd polls showing Walker losing to independents, college age, etc. Somehow they couldn’t give out a straight poll of voters.
Barry is not black. He according to CNN and ABC is a “white African American”. He is also the WORST thing to happen to the Presidency in my lifetime and that includes Carter!
So, bug off bigots! (not you jma)
I’m with Limbaugh on this one.
I think an increasing percentage of the electorate deliberately lies to pollsters, because they have come to enjoy the spectacle of pompous talking heads on television soiling themselves as they are forced to walk back terrible projections.
” Respondents lie to pollsters.”
Pollsters lie to the media?
or the more likely one of
The Obamedia lies to the American public?
or a combination of all of the above.
The simple fact is that MANY MANY Americans are currently unemployed and have been for awhile.
THe economy sucks!
We see nothing but huge fraud, waste and abuse by our government along with crony capitalism.
I predict a loss for THE ONE.
He is a more radical, black Jimmy Carter.
;D! Racists afraid being labeled racists. Who knew.
I don't know. Carter is still fresh in my memory because he was one of mine, a white, Southern, Southern Baptist. that still didn't keep me from voting against him the first time (voted FOR Reagan the next run). I mean, he was one of mine. I knew what he was saying when he didn't say anything. Still, it's a close run. Obama is doing more damage, I think because now we are already so close to the edge, which wasn't the case when Carter was in power. Thank God he only had one term. Let's do the same to Hussein.
i just answered a aflcio phone survey
i told them i didnt vote in 2008 and that i am a moderate independent from hispanic descent , in the union and that i am definetley voting for romney next time. oh and i told them i had a phd.
boy was i laughing when i hung up.
“Given the harassment dished out to people to admit to having the “wrong” views, it naturally follows that we’re not going to advertise our true feelings to untrusted people. “
Exactly. I don't understand why more people don't see this. People who voted against the unions did not want to talk to anyone about that in public.
The major Media polls are being used to try & demoralize Republicans. It worked in ‘08. Given Obama’s track record they don’t have a prayer at succeeding this time. I’ll crawl over broken glass to vote against Obama.
I have never been exit polled (since I usually vote when the polls open in the morning then go on to work) but I have been deluged with phone polls in the last 2 election cycles - neither I nor my wife answers the questions, we just politely say "No thanks" and hang up. Libs, who are more interested in sharing their ignorant opinions with others, probably always take the polls - which wouls skew the results lib-ward. Are there any industry figures to support this theory, I wonder? Then again, the poll results are balanced out by lib voter fraud, so maybe the polls are accurate after all.
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