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PANIC AMONG THE DEMOCRATIC FAITHFUL
Power Line ^ | JUNE 12, 2012 | PAUL MIRENGOFF

Posted on 06/13/2012 8:05:49 AM PDT by kingattax

Democratic loyalists are beginning to panic about President Obama’s re-election prospects, according to this report in the Washington Post. The latest cause for alarm is a memo from Democracy Corps, a research group headed by Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg and political consultant James (“it’s the economy, stupid”) Carville. Based on their analysis of focus groups conducted in late May among swing voters in Ohio and Pennsylvania, Greenberg and Carville say that the current campaign message — which stresses progress made towards economic recovery — is out of touch with the daily pain voters are feeling.

The authors urge Team Obama to switch to a new narrative that focuses on what Obama will do to make a better future for the middle class. Otherwise, they say, “we will face an impossible head wind in November.”

Greenberg and Carville are not alone in feeling pessimistic. According to the Post, eight other prominent Democratic strategists interviewed share that sentiment. They also view Obama’s team as resistant to advice and assistance from those who are not part of its core.

My sense is that the “panic” of these Democrats represents a correction to the overly optimistic view most of them held earlier this year. Back in the days of when Republican candidates were beating up on Romney and Romney was struggling to connect with voters, it was easy for Dems to underestimate the task they would face in November. Now, with the Republican Party behind Romney — as it was always going to be — and the candidate hitting his stride, it is easy to panic.

The reality, I think, is that the odds of Obama winning in November are about 50 percent. Considering the stakes of the election, both sides should probably panic.

As for the notion that Obama should emphasize what he will do going forward, as opposed to what he has accomplished already, this may be naive. If voters don’t believe that Obama’s remedies have worked during the past three-and-half years, they aren’t likely to embrace claims that the new remedies he has in mind will succeed. In fairness to Greenberg and Carville, though, their focus groups reacted positively to ads that acknowledge the economic problems of the past four years and propose solutions like increasing taxes on people making more than $200,000 a year. Republicans underestimate the power of class warfare in a bad economy, I believe.

Ultimately, though, Obama’s fate is largely out of his hands. His prospects depend primarily on how the economy — especially the job market — does during the next four months or so. Secondarily, they depend on how well Romney presents himself to the public.

The White House is coming to realize that it can’t define how well the economy is doing. However, it would like to believe it can define Romney. To a considerable degree, this is wishful thinking. The public isn’t likely to take Obama’s portrayal of Romney at face value. What, after all, has Obama done to earn that level of trust?

However, the Greenberg-Carville focus groups show that Romney does have vulnerabilities. People in the focus groups tended to hold his wealth against him, believing that it makes him out of touch with their problems. And when they found out that Romney has embraced the Ryan budget, and that budget was described to them (in what manner, I don’t know), they viewed Romney less favorably than before.

So Romney has no easy task when it comes to defining, or re-defining, himself. As I said, it’s anyone’s election and both sides have plenty to worry about


TOPICS: Politics
KEYWORDS: democrats; obama; romney

1 posted on 06/13/2012 8:05:56 AM PDT by kingattax
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To: kingattax

Is that Democracy Corps or Democracy Corpse?


2 posted on 06/13/2012 8:12:56 AM PDT by Jack Hydrazine (It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine!)
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To: kingattax
Obie and his commie buddies have been railing against "the man" all their lives and continue to do so.

Most thinking people, however, realize that "the man" is the one who gives them "the job".

3 posted on 06/13/2012 8:15:44 AM PDT by gov_bean_ counter ( A good measure, pressed down, shaken together and running over...)
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To: kingattax

I hope all this rat panic isn’t a ploy, to let repubs think the election in the bag for the GOP. Rats trying to convince repubs not to show on election day because of a GOP landslide. Just sayin’


4 posted on 06/13/2012 8:16:41 AM PDT by duckman (Go Newt...)
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To: kingattax

What’s going on with Carville?

He wrote a book, in which he wrote that Democrats were poised to rule for the next 40 years. Now he’s one of the ones who is panicked about this election??? How can that be???

But, is he really panicked? After all, Carville is a Clintonista. Once a Clintonista, always a Clintonista.

Are the Clintons going to shed too many tears if Obama goes down to defeat????


5 posted on 06/13/2012 8:18:19 AM PDT by Dilbert San Diego
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To: duckman

Reading between the lines here it sounds as if Bill Clinton and other Democrat political pros have gone to Barry and tried to tell him “You’re f***ing up! Let us show you how you win re-election!”

To which Barry has reacted in his typical arrogant fashion and dismissed them. I think they know he’s an amateur and the boat’s goin’ down.


6 posted on 06/13/2012 8:19:30 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: gov_bean_ counter

It sure is hard for someone like Obama to rail against “the man”, when he is “the man” now.


7 posted on 06/13/2012 8:20:10 AM PDT by Dilbert San Diego
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To: kingattax

I don’t think Obama would take advise from anyone including God. He is a *know it all* and they can never learn..


8 posted on 06/13/2012 8:20:17 AM PDT by goat granny
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To: kingattax

obama fate is not out of his hands:all he has to do is abandon all the false doctrines,and .....nevermind....


9 posted on 06/13/2012 8:20:48 AM PDT by hoosierham (Freedom isn't free)
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To: duckman
I hope all this rat panic isn’t a ploy, to let repubs think the election in the bag for the GOP. Rats trying to convince repubs not to show on election day because of a GOP landslide. Just sayin’

Variation on your theme: Polling designed to show Romney leading until the Democrat convention, then EVERY POLL in the country will miraculously put Obama ahead to stay. Momentum and all that..

10 posted on 06/13/2012 8:22:40 AM PDT by TexasNative2000 (Jimmy Carter's incompetence + Richard Nixon's paranoia = Barack Obama)
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To: kingattax
No need to panic or worry.
The RNC has selected his pale clone, to carry on his work.
The destruction of our nation will continue unabated.
11 posted on 06/13/2012 8:24:19 AM PDT by rawcatslyentist ("Behold, I am against you, O arrogant one," Jeremiah 50:31)
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To: Dilbert San Diego

No, because then the path will be made to run Hillary in 2016. Bill wants nothing more than to get back in the White House.


12 posted on 06/13/2012 8:28:08 AM PDT by woodbutcher1963
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To: kingattax
His prospects depend primarily on how the economy — especially the job market — does during the next four months or so.

Most of the jobs/economic reports of the last 2 weeks or so show a reversal -- things are getting worse, not better.

That means Team Obama's policies have failed, because it takes about 18 months for the economy to hit bottom or grow out of a recession. Thus, we should be about 2/3 out of the current economic mess -- if Team Obama's policies had worked.

Instead, jobless claims are ticking up, family income has dropped drastically, job creation is in the 20,000 new jobs per week while new unemployment claims are rising again to the 380,000 per week.

There does not seem to by anything in place to cause a drastic turnaround in the next 4 months. Instead, Obama is speechifying the same ole rhetoric: infrastructure spending [didn't work with the earlier bailouts] and taxing the wealthy.
13 posted on 06/13/2012 8:31:21 AM PDT by TomGuy
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To: kingattax
However, the Greenberg-Carville focus groups show that Romney does have vulnerabilities. People in the focus groups tended to hold his wealth against him, believing that it makes him out of touch with their problems. And when they found out that Romney has embraced the Ryan budget, and that budget was described to them (in what manner, I don’t know), they viewed Romney less favorably than before.

The focus groups were likely made up (mostly if not completely) of democrats. They're unfavorable toward republicans by nature, and their idea of economic growth is through government spending and largess. They'd naturally be against any spending plans that don't grow the government, and likely favor increased stimulus spending. Nor will they ever consider an alternative. It's just not possible.

14 posted on 06/13/2012 8:32:58 AM PDT by bcsco
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To: Dilbert San Diego

Carville may be smelling a weak president, whose numbers are tanking. Carville may be thinking (as many of us are) that those numbers are bad enough that the Dem elites may be trying to force Obama out [shades of LBJ]. And who could possibly become the savior of the party then?

[hint: her initials are Hillary Rodham Clinton]


15 posted on 06/13/2012 8:37:00 AM PDT by TomGuy
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To: kingattax
Obama still has two important things going for him--wholehearted support by the media, and the potential of manufacturing an "October surprise."

In 1980 Carter had less gung-ho support from the media--even though he is a Democrat, the media elite could never forgive him for being a Southern white male or for having sincere religious beliefs. John Anderson was there to siphon off liberal Democrats who were fed up with Carter.

Carter's rhetoric got pretty shrill just before the election. Of course, with Obama, the rhetoric has been shrill all the time.

16 posted on 06/13/2012 8:37:40 AM PDT by Verginius Rufus
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To: Buckeye McFrog

“I think they know he’s an amateur and the boat’s goin’ down.”

Obama is both an amateur and a Marxist. There’s nothing new in his tired anti-capitalist playbook that he can possibly do to alter the downward spiral of the economy. The type of things he needs to do to revitalize the economy and put people back to work run up against his deep seated and misguided statist ideology. He will never unleaash the power of individual freedom which is the key to economic advancement.


17 posted on 06/13/2012 8:37:55 AM PDT by Starboard
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To: kingattax
Photobucket
18 posted on 06/13/2012 8:38:15 AM PDT by Huskrrrr ( the will)
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To: Dilbert San Diego
Are the Clintons going to shed too many tears if Obama goes down to defeat????

Your answer is here.

There are just too many coincidences to ignore.

19 posted on 06/13/2012 8:38:32 AM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: Dilbert San Diego

The civil war within the Democrat party continues...Billy is never gonna forgive the Obama campaign for playing the race care in the ‘08 Dem primary in NC. Never.

Payback is hell.


20 posted on 06/13/2012 8:39:24 AM PDT by kjo (+)
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To: bcsco

Paul Ryan was on “Fox & Friends” this morning responding to recent attacks by Obama. He pointed out the absurdity of calling something a “cut” when you are just not increasing it as much as someone else wants to.


21 posted on 06/13/2012 8:40:07 AM PDT by Verginius Rufus
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To: kingattax

Sounds like the “Rats” are starting to form a circular firing squad.


22 posted on 06/13/2012 8:47:18 AM PDT by Old Retired Army Guy
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To: Dilbert San Diego

—What’s going on with Carville?—

The last five or six presidential election cycles I’ve noticed a tendency of the press to start writing the obituary of the losing party, only to switch the party name on the obituary four or eight years later.

IOW, Meh...


23 posted on 06/13/2012 8:48:43 AM PDT by cuban leaf (Were doomed! Details at eleven.)
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To: Verginius Rufus
John Anderson was there to siphon off liberal Democrats who were fed up with Carter.

Correct. And Reagan played that masterfully. Remember the first debate when Reagan and Anderson debated with an empty chair for Jimbo?

Then, having shown his gentlemanly sense of fair play by supporting Anderson's inclusion in the first debate, Reagan went on to clean Carter's clock in the next two.

Nevertheless, even if Jimbo had picked up every vote for John Anderson, it would not have even come close to changing the election results. At best, Jimbo would have picked up 2 or 3 more New England states.

24 posted on 06/13/2012 8:49:42 AM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: Dilbert San Diego

>>He wrote a book, in which he wrote that Democrats were poised to rule for the next 40 years. Now he’s one of the ones who is panicked about this election??? How can that be???

People only vote liberal after they’ve been through a decade of Pax Republicana.


25 posted on 06/13/2012 8:50:44 AM PDT by struggle (http://killthegovernment.wordpress.com/)
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To: TexasNative2000; duckman
This is exactly right. There are a few reasons why the media is “turning” on weak barry bastard and why the “Dems are in a panic.”

As for the press, they will certainly do exactly as you say. They will deliver their drooling maniacal support on queue at the proper time. But by “turning” on Obama now, they can later peddle the lie that they are “objective.”

Also, by turning on barry now they can connect with the morons who can not help but notice that Obama is flushing this country down the toilet. If they only parrot Obama’s outrageous lies about the economy, there is a chance that even their lonely two little brain cells will recognize the monstrous disconnect between the White House message and reality. It keeps the idiots ready to believe the upcoming whoppers.

Barry will have an astonishing “come back” in the polls scheduled for September. Count on it.

26 posted on 06/13/2012 8:53:02 AM PDT by getitright (If you call this HOPE, can we give despair a shot?)
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To: duckman
I hope all this rat panic isn’t a ploy, to let repubs think the election in the bag for the GOP. Rats trying to convince repubs not to show on election day because of a GOP landslide. Just sayin’

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

X2

27 posted on 06/13/2012 8:53:56 AM PDT by verga (Party like it is 1773)
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To: Verginius Rufus

Well, that opens up another issue. Americans, on average, don’t understand the nuances in democrat speak. To the dems, maintaining current spending levels is a cut, because they want an increase. It’s alright to point out this difference, but many Americans won’t grasp it.

OTOH, that also implies maintaining current spending levels may be all right with some republicans. And that’s its own problem. What we really need is deep cuts in spending, along with a reduction in taxes. But how many congressional repubs will go along with that?


28 posted on 06/13/2012 8:54:43 AM PDT by bcsco
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To: kingattax

If Democratic loyalists had any logic they would panic about hime being reelected.


29 posted on 06/13/2012 9:01:18 AM PDT by Vaduz
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To: Vigilanteman
Reagan carried Arkansas by about 5,000 votes although Carter won the state in a landslide in 1976. Anderson had about 22,000 votes. What sunk Carter there (and contributed to Clinton's defeat as governor) was the Cuban boatlift people being sent to Arkansas.

Massachusetts was an extremely close Reagan win in 1980. Anderson may have made the difference also in Maine, Vermont, and Connecticut. Rhode Island went for Carter despite Anderson. New Hampshire went to Reagan by a larger margin than Anderson's votes.

30 posted on 06/13/2012 9:15:15 AM PDT by Verginius Rufus
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To: kingattax

What a campaign theme! “We’ll do better next time.”


31 posted on 06/13/2012 9:18:50 AM PDT by luvbach1 (Stop the destruction in 2012 or continue the decline)
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To: Verginius Rufus
Obama still has two important things going for him--wholehearted support by the media, and the potential of manufacturing an "October surprise."

He has one more: Race riots if he is dumped.

32 posted on 06/13/2012 9:22:01 AM PDT by luvbach1 (Stop the destruction in 2012 or continue the decline)
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To: duckman
I hope all this rat panic isn’t a ploy, to let repubs think the election in the bag for the GOP. Rats trying to convince repubs not to show on election day because of a GOP landslide. Just sayin’

there are some posters [mostly noobs] who say they'll not vote in order to ... get this now... in order to minimize the mandate romney will claim after his win.

33 posted on 06/13/2012 9:29:13 AM PDT by Principled (It's not enthusiasm for Romney, it's grim determination to remove Hussein)
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To: Verginius Rufus

Give Carter every vote for John Anderson and Reagan still cruises across over the finish line with 299 electoral votes, including the swing state trifeca of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida.
34 posted on 06/13/2012 9:50:07 AM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: kingattax
Photobucket Panic? What do they have to panic about? He's way too articulate to lose.
35 posted on 06/13/2012 9:51:42 AM PDT by RetSignman
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To: duckman
I hope all this rat panic isn’t a ploy, to let repubs think the election in the bag for the GOP. Rats trying to convince repubs not to show on election day because of a GOP landslide. Just sayin’

Considering the source and the timing I'd say you're right on the money. This is not the time for our side to lose steam and think we'll coast to a win. This will be a very close election.

36 posted on 06/13/2012 10:00:28 AM PDT by Bernard Marx
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To: TomGuy

The only way the Dem Elite could force Obama out of the election is with a bullet... And that is the scenario that scares me the most.
The “lone assassin” will, of course, be a “right-wing racist nut” and inspired by “an atmosphere of hate.”
Obama’s stand-in will win in a landslide and have free hand to do what ever it takes suppress such “hate.”
Prayers for the vigilance and dedication of Obama’s security details...


37 posted on 06/13/2012 10:08:25 AM PDT by Little Ray (FOR the best Conservative in the Primary; AGAINST Obama in the General.)
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To: kingattax
what Obama will do to make a better future for the middle class

So 0bammy will go from trying to kill off the middle class through class warfare to making a better future for it? Hussein is totally incompetent, a committed socialist and a liar. What makes the dim "braintrust" think ANYONE would believe his message?

38 posted on 06/13/2012 10:14:27 AM PDT by The Sons of Liberty (Sworn to Defend The Constitution Against ALL Enemies, Foreign and Domestic. So Help Me GOD!)
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To: kingattax

Rush had a piece from the NYTimes months ago where it said ZEro was going to ignore the working groups and middle class and run to the extremes of poverty and wealth.


39 posted on 06/13/2012 10:38:16 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Little Ray
The “lone assassin” will, of course, be a “right-wing racist nut” and inspired by “an atmosphere of hate.”

And his middle name will be "Earl".

Regards,
GtG

40 posted on 06/13/2012 1:43:33 PM PDT by Gandalf_The_Gray (I live in my own little world, I like it 'cuz they know me here.)
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