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Why Are We Slowing Down? (there are no areas of the world economy that are growing)
The Bonddad Blog ^ | 06/16/2012 | Hale Stewart

Posted on 06/16/2012 7:02:00 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

In an article yesterday explaining why I switched from the WSJ to the Financial Times, I cited the FT's far more international orientation as a prime reason for the switch. With that in mind, consider this point from yesterday's statement from the Bank of Japan regarding interest rate policy: Regarding risks to the economic outlook, there remains a high degree of uncertainty about the global economy, including the prospects for the European debt problem, the momentum toward recovery for the U.S. economy, and the likelihood of emerging and commodity-exporting economies simultaneously achieving price stability and economic growth. Regarding risks to the price outlook, careful attention should be paid to future developments in international commodity prices and in medium- to long-term inflation expectations. Put another way, there are no areas of the world economy that are demonstrating a pure growth environment; everybody is dealing with a fairly serious negative environment. Let's break the world down into geographic blocks:

1.) China is located at the center of Asian economic activity. Recently, they lowered their lending rate largely as result of weakening internal numbers. While these numbers still appear strong to a western observer (growth just over 8%), remember that China is trying to help over a billion people become middle class. To accomplish that goal, the economy needs to have a strong growth rate. Also consider that the news out of India has become darker over the last few months as well. A recent set of articles in the Economist highlighted the issues: a political system that is more or less unable to lead, thereby preventing the action on structural roadblocks to growth. The fact that two of the Asian tigers are slowing is rippling into other regions of the world, which leads to point number 2.

2.) The countries that supply the raw materials to these regions are now slowing. Australia recently lowered its interest rate by 25 BP in response to the slowing in Asia. A contributing factor to Brazil's slowdown is the decrease in exports to China. Other Asian economies that have a trade relationship with China are all experiencing a degree of slowdown, but not recession. Some of these countries (such as Brazil) were also experiencing strong price increases. The price increases are are starting to slow, but they are still above comfort levels.

3.) Russia has dropped off the news map of late. However, it emerged from the recession in far worse shape; it's annual growth rate for the duration of the recovery has been between 3.8% and 5%, which is a full 3% below its growth rate preceding the recession. This slower rate of growth makes Russia a far less impressive member of the BRIC list.

4.) The entire European continent is caught up in the debt story -- underneath which we're seeing some terrible economic numbers emerge. PMIs are now in recession territory, unemployment is increasing and interest rates for less than credit-worthy borrowers are rising. And, the overall credit situation is casting a pall over the continent, freezing expansion plans.

5.) The US economy has experienced 2-3 months of declining numbers. While we're not in recession territory yet, we are clearly in a slowdown with growth probably hovering around the 0% mark.

The EU situation is killing growth in that region. This is bleeding over to the US from a psychological perspective. China and India are bleeding over into the Asian region, along with having a negative impact on countries that export raw materials.

What's missing from the above points? There is no good news out there; it's all negative. Every region of the world is experiencing some type of slowdown. This has a tremendous impact on the overall psychology of market participants, and is a contributing factor to the overall slowing occurring over the globe.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Society
KEYWORDS: economy; growth; world

1 posted on 06/16/2012 7:02:10 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

You put China first, then pretended “it is slowing down”.

China is growing.

We need to start worrying about that.


2 posted on 06/16/2012 7:04:14 AM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network (America doesn't need any new laws. America needs freedom!)
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To: SeekAndFind

Too much government interference. Too much manipulation by central banks.


3 posted on 06/16/2012 7:04:52 AM PDT by BenLurkin (This is not a statement of fact. It is either opinion or satire; or both)
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To: SeekAndFind

But there is some good news. The alphabet Federal agencies are doing just fine.


4 posted on 06/16/2012 7:11:22 AM PDT by lurk
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To: Cringing Negativism Network

????

China: ‘weak growth’ for years, says Credit Suisse
http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2012/06/14/china-weak-growth-for-years-says-credit-suisse/#axzz1xxuC1WYf

China Government Adviser Predicts Second-Quarter Growth Below 7 Percent
http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/China-growth-economic-slow/2012/06/13/id/442129

China’s `New Normal’ Growth to Slow to 6%
http://www.businessweek.com/videos/2012-06-07/chinas-new-normal-growth-to-slow-to-6-percent

China manufacturing growth slows down
http://www.france24.com/en/20120601-china-manufacturing-growth-slows-down

China’s manufacturing activity grew at a markedly lower rate in May, official data showed Friday, providing further confirmation that the world’s number two economy is slowing rapidly.


5 posted on 06/16/2012 7:12:19 AM PDT by EBH (Obama took away your American Dreams and replaced them with "Dreams from My (his) Father".)
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To: BenLurkin
Too much government interference. Too much manipulation by central banks.

And too much debt service by both the public and private sectors.

With all that money going to service debt there is simply less to support spending and investment. We borrowed from the future and the future finally showed up and demanded payment. We have two answers to that demand: pay up or declare bankruptcy. And that is what is happening. If we pay, the banks survive. If we don't, they die.

It really isn't any more complicated than that.

6 posted on 06/16/2012 7:15:48 AM PDT by InterceptPoint (TIN)
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To: EBH

China has America over the coals.

They have nationalized (made in China) almost everything once made here, and continue to rake up huge manufacturing balances against us.

We cannot sustain indefinitely.

We need to start paying attention. China is not our friend.

The longer we avoid looking at the growing problem, the more they become our Enemy.

Let’s not wait until then.


7 posted on 06/16/2012 7:16:38 AM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network (America doesn't need any new laws. America needs freedom!)
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To: SeekAndFind

My theory is that the US economy is the world’s economic driving force and socialism doesn’t work.

Or free markets drive the world economy and there currently aren’t any.


8 posted on 06/16/2012 7:27:46 AM PDT by ChinaGotTheGoodsOnClinton (Go Egypt on 0bama)
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To: SeekAndFind

My theory is that the US economy is the world’s economic driving force and socialism doesn’t work.

Or free markets drive the world economy and there currently aren’t any.


9 posted on 06/16/2012 7:27:50 AM PDT by ChinaGotTheGoodsOnClinton (Go Egypt on 0bama)
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To: SeekAndFind
A contributing factor to Brazil's slowdown is the decrease in exports to China

I think all those countries who hitched their star to a rising China are in for a disappointment.

IMO this country will bounce back when Romney gets in, mainly because there will be a collective sigh of relief that the bomb-thrower is out of power. Businesses will have more confidence in a more stable regulatory environment and start hiring. If Romney cuts loose the Keystone pipeline and open new areas to fracking, this country will turn on a dime. BIG problems remain, but maybe some straws will be removed from the camel's back.

10 posted on 06/16/2012 7:29:41 AM PDT by Oatka (This is America. Assimilate or evaporate.)
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To: SeekAndFind
The structure of this article is as follows:
Why is the world economy slowing down?
1) The world economy is slowing down.
2) The world economy is slowing down.
3) The world economy is slowing down.
4) The world economy is slowing down.
Conclusion: The world economy is slowing down.
What a spectacularly uninformative author.
11 posted on 06/16/2012 7:29:53 AM PDT by Lazamataz (People who resort to Godwin's Law are just like Hitler.)
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To: Lazamataz

“What a spectacularly uninformative author.”
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

He would make a great congressman. Fill a page with words and say nothing.


12 posted on 06/16/2012 7:35:38 AM PDT by RipSawyer
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To: Lazamataz

LOL!!

No mention of demographics driving destiny and how China has artifically distorted their demographics to the detriment of the next 2-3 generations, or more


13 posted on 06/16/2012 7:38:16 AM PDT by silverleaf (Every human spent about half an hour as a single cell)
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To: SeekAndFind

Why are we slowing? That’s easy. Not enough growth. Not enough new technology. Too many taxes. Too much social welfare to the undeserving. Too little productivity. Too many public employee unions siphoning off the wealth as “retirement benetfits”.


14 posted on 06/16/2012 7:45:18 AM PDT by Rapscallion (Obama's favorite tactic is scapegoating successful Americans.)
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To: Cringing Negativism Network
Every region of the world is experiencing some type of slowdown.

The last time this happened the deadliest war in human history broke out. All it takes to start the fire is one country to smell incompetence in foreign leadership. China is acting much like Germany did, moving to annex land they claim is historically theirs. As their standard of living increases they need more resources. They may get into it with Russia to re-balance land resources to population.

Before it starts we need a commander in chief that loves America and has the competitive advantage of faith in God. The Obastard has got to go.

15 posted on 06/16/2012 8:09:12 AM PDT by Reeses
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To: SeekAndFind

The author fails to mention the key to every failure to recover: Government Meddling.

Economies have recessions. The only question about the recovery is whether governments will insert themselves further into the economy and therefore get in the way of the recovery, or remove themselve from the economy so that it can grow faster.

Governments are like carbon rods in a nuclear reactor. The nuclear fission will be either dampened or revved up depending on how much the government / rods GET IN THE WAY.


16 posted on 06/16/2012 8:09:53 AM PDT by Uncle Miltie (The Presidential Race is about the relative light reflectivity of your Socialist Slavemaster.)
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To: SeekAndFind
Usual Suspects...

Underlying all of this is a cancerous lack of belief
That conditions are present where one uses capital to make capital
Labor, Goods, Services, Land, Personal Worth, Borrowed Money
Are all form of Capital

Entrepreneurs act on the belief that a
positive rate of return can be expected
for a given activity

If, as is currently true,
they believe a negative ROI is to be expected,
they sit on their hands

Multiply by 10's of millions of individual decisions
by individual entrepreneurs

The economies stop, and all H.LL breaks out

17 posted on 06/16/2012 8:12:30 AM PDT by HangnJudge
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To: Cringing Negativism Network

Yes it is growing but it’s off small numbers and below trend line growth.


18 posted on 06/16/2012 8:15:22 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch (I can explain it to you. I can't understand it for you.)
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To: Oatka
Romney gets in, mainly because there will be a collective sigh of relief that the bomb-thrower is out of power. Businesses will have more confidence in a more stable regulatory environment and start hiring.

LOL thanks for the laugh! Did you forget the /sarc tag?

Do you know what Romney did to the state of MA? Do you realize how he made a basket case of the state's economy? I believe it went from the mid-level to the bottom four in performance.

Mitt's dad was a hard-core Statist and ALL of Mitt's record as governor is one of a hard-core Statist.

One would have to be delusional to think Mitt will do much to turn us towards Liberty.

Mitt is running for President for one and only one reason -- to gratify his arrogant ego. Mitt has NO concern for limited government.

I will happily and with contentment do a write-in in November. I will never vote for a Statist.

19 posted on 06/16/2012 8:17:35 AM PDT by sand88
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To: SeekAndFind
The question wasn't answered in the article...And it's all pretty simple...

The unemployment in China is about 5%...Where did they get all those jobs for hundreds of millions of people???

They got them from the U.S.A...From Germany, the UK, France, Australia, Russia and every other industrialized nation in the world...

China has hundreds of billions of U.S. dollars (the world currency) in reserve while every other country on the face of the earth is billions and billions of dollars in debt...

Every time someone buys something, the money goes to China...

No one will talk about the real problem and certainly no one will talk about the obvious solution...

20 posted on 06/16/2012 8:19:21 AM PDT by Iscool (You mess with me, you mess with the WHOLE trailerpark...)
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To: Wyatt's Torch

China’s “trend lines” have been to eat the planet’s manufacturing appetite.

Now they own it all, they’ve slowed eating.

It turns NONE of it around. Zero.


21 posted on 06/16/2012 8:20:41 AM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network (America doesn't need any new laws. America needs freedom!)
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To: SeekAndFind
The Number One reason is Government interference Policy. Redistributing the wealth causes the wealthy to be fearful and not spend and invest, companies to see increased risks in expansion and a general apprehensive feeling among the general working population which reduces spending/borrowing. When risk is not rewarded, why do it? When working harder is taxed more (reducing percentage of take-home), why do it? Socialism has gripped the planet and this is a natural result.
22 posted on 06/16/2012 8:24:48 AM PDT by BipolarBob ("These aren't the droids you're looking for.")
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To: SeekAndFind

China has nothing over us in a sense. We are consuming less; China’s largest customer is the EU and they are consuming less. They are screwed right along with us in the slowdown.


23 posted on 06/16/2012 8:33:30 AM PDT by joelt
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To: Cringing Negativism Network

China’s wage rates and standards of living have been increasing and increasing manufacturing costs. A number of American companies have been “onshoring” and bringing manufacturing back to the US because e cost advantages are not there anymore.


24 posted on 06/16/2012 8:37:17 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch (I can explain it to you. I can't understand it for you.)
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To: Wyatt's Torch

You of course have names for these companies who have ‘returned’ to America?

Yes?


25 posted on 06/16/2012 8:42:03 AM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network (America doesn't need any new laws. America needs freedom!)
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To: Cringing Negativism Network

China needs a strong growth rate just to maintain civil tranquility. If they fall below 8% growth, they will fail to meet expectations of those billion people. Though the growth rate seems high by our standards, their per capita net worth is a great deal less than ours.
The Chinese leadership is acutely aware of the political risks if they can not meet expectations of their people.


26 posted on 06/16/2012 9:04:21 AM PDT by WILLIALAL
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To: Iscool

“The unemployment in China is about 5%...Where did they get all those jobs for hundreds of millions of people???”

We have been exporting and importing less wage inflation for decades.
we have exported wage inflation to China in return for cheaper goods with a loss of domestic jobs, and we have imported wage deflation by allowing uncontrolled immigration through our borders, both taking jobs from wage earners here.


27 posted on 06/16/2012 9:13:48 AM PDT by WILLIALAL
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To: WILLIALAL

So how come then, if China is allowed to run a lower than anyone 5% tax rate, and keep controlling interest in the things they make, and sell to foreigners?

How come than, China still does not allow foreigners to own things, or import things?

How come we give, and give and give, and China takes, and takes, and takes?

Hmm? When this started we were in charge of the world.

Now we’re heading into nothing...

Who’s making the decisions, and why aren’t they wrong?

Because from where I stand, they (ALL) appear wrong.


28 posted on 06/16/2012 9:19:22 AM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network (America doesn't need any new laws. America needs freedom!)
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To: Cringing Negativism Network
Who’s making the decisions, and why aren’t they wrong?

The G20, the G8, the Bilderbergers...The World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the Federal Reserve, the Council on Foreign Relations and the list goes on and on...

These are the filthy rich and powerful of the world...

In their eyes, it's not wrong...They are looking at the world like we Americans look at the United States...

To them, we Americans are no different than the Chinese or the Ethiopians...They have no tangling sovereign alliances...

And every 4 years they pick a couple of people for us to blame our problems on and we get appeased by voting for or against our favorite of the 2, forgetting or not even knowing that our choices are on the same team...

We've had some chances over the years to win back our Country but those in power have found it easy to manipulate the masses...

29 posted on 06/16/2012 10:38:32 AM PDT by Iscool (You mess with me, you mess with the WHOLE trailerpark...)
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To: Cringing Negativism Network

There’s this new thing called “Google” that you should try out. But in case it’s too difficult here’s one article that I found. It took 3 seconds:

http://www.dailyfinance.com/2012/01/25/signs-of-a-new-industrial-age-in-america/

Oh and another company is my own.


30 posted on 06/16/2012 10:49:30 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch (I can explain it to you. I can't understand it for you.)
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To: Wyatt's Torch

Hope it doesn’t take 20 years...

That will be too late.

Thanks for the ping.


31 posted on 06/16/2012 10:54:01 AM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network (America doesn't need any new laws. America needs freedom!)
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To: Wyatt's Torch

China’s intellectual property theft is another reason. They are taking the designs and tooling drawings and assembly instructions to a factory down the street to build your same product but without giving you any money for it.


32 posted on 06/16/2012 11:11:17 AM PDT by tbw2
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To: ChinaGotTheGoodsOnClinton

“My theory is that the US economy is the world’s economic driving force and socialism doesn’t work.

Or free markets drive the world economy and there currently aren’t any.”

I agree. Although there are multiple factors, if you look at historical periods of growth and prosperity over the past 150 years, you can identify commonalities that can be attributed to that growth. Then, look at today’s economic environment and you can see those very factors either absent or restricted by governmental actions/policies...especially those governments that stray from overt support of free market capitalism. The farther you get from free market capitalism, the slower the economic growth.

That’s my theory and I’m stickin’ with it, at least until and unless I see some data that will refute it from a macro-economic perspective.


33 posted on 06/16/2012 11:56:51 AM PDT by Let_It_Be_So (Once you see the Truth, you cannot "unsee" it, no matter how hard you may try.)
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To: SeekAndFind
Why Are We Slowing Down? (there are no areas of the world economy that are growing)

Easy.

Because, unlike the ignorance and faith of the elected morons in Sacramento and D.C., the American citizens, alone, can't cure all the world's ills, support all the world's socialist parasites, feed all the world's starving children, or create democracies out of koranimals.

Just do the math.

34 posted on 06/16/2012 12:10:53 PM PDT by publius911 (Formerly Publius 6961, formerly jennsdad)
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To: RipSawyer
He would make a great congressman. Fill a page with words and say nothing.

Presidential material!!!

35 posted on 06/16/2012 12:12:48 PM PDT by publius911 (Formerly Publius 6961, formerly jennsdad)
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To: sand88
Romney gets in, mainly because there will be a collective sigh of relief that the bomb-thrower is out of power. Businesses will have more confidence in a more stable regulatory environment and start hiring.
LOL thanks for the laugh! Did you forget the /sarc tag?

Steady lad, steady. The "sigh of relif" will come in the manner of someone who stops banging their head against the wall and says, "Boy, what a relief!" Compared to what we have now, Romney (who will not get my vote) will look great. This country has been driven down so much, that even a RINO will look good in comparison.

For a while anyway.

36 posted on 06/16/2012 12:16:23 PM PDT by Oatka (This is America. Assimilate or evaporate.)
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To: Cringing Negativism Network; Wyatt's Torch

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37 posted on 06/16/2012 12:19:00 PM PDT by Lazamataz (People who resort to Godwin's Law are just like Hitler.)
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To: SeekAndFind

I think it’s all part of an ongoing depression, where we have a series of recessions punctuated by artificial growth caused by stimulus. That’s really what is happening now—the stimulus is wearing off and the hangover is setting in.

And of course, the bigger the stimulus, the bigger the hangover. As the economy builds up a tolerance for stimulus, you need more and more of it to get any effect. We’ve had record doses of stimulus and we’ve barely had any kind of phony growth


38 posted on 06/16/2012 12:21:48 PM PDT by wolfman
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To: Lazamataz

You missed

Yoyodyne Propulsion Systems


39 posted on 06/16/2012 1:22:30 PM PDT by HangnJudge
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To: tbw2

What about China’s “Ghost Cities”? How many workers does it take to build blocks and blocks of apartment buildings, supermalls, etc. - but then they sit empty? Entire cities are like that. While obviously that makes the unemployment numbers look good, I would say that it is not productive work, and is not much different than welfare. (Paying someone and getting nothing useful back from them).


40 posted on 06/16/2012 1:32:14 PM PDT by 21twelve
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To: Oatka

So we replace a revolutionary with a Fabian both of whom desire the same goal. What causes you to think the Fabian (Romney) will give up the advances the revolutionary (Obama) gained?


41 posted on 06/16/2012 2:29:38 PM PDT by W. W. SMITH (Maybe the horse (RNC) will learn to sing)
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To: Oatka

this country will bounce back when Romney gets in,

So we replace a revolutionary with a Fabian both of whom desire the same goal. What causes you to think the Fabian (Romney) will give up the advances the revolutionary (Obama) gained?


42 posted on 06/16/2012 2:34:28 PM PDT by W. W. SMITH (Maybe the horse (RNC) will learn to sing)
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To: 21twelve

I thought China might be building the ghost cities for its planned migration to those cities to build up its territorial claims on some regions and move the hundreds of millions who want to move to the cities somewhere AWAY from the already crowded coast.


43 posted on 06/16/2012 2:54:23 PM PDT by tbw2
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To: W. W. SMITH
What causes you to think the Fabian (Romney) will give up the advances the revolutionary (Obama) gained?

See post #36.

44 posted on 06/16/2012 4:41:04 PM PDT by Oatka (This is America. Assimilate or evaporate.)
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To: tbw2

I have heard that too and it might make sense. But why are they then sitting empty for many years?


45 posted on 06/16/2012 9:19:32 PM PDT by 21twelve
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