Skip to comments.Obama's Best Hope
Posted on 06/25/2012 6:26:26 AM PDT by Shout Bits
As early as Monday, the US Supreme Court is expected to rule on the legality of Obamacare, with most prognostications for at least a partial striking of the act. Conventional wisdom suggests that Pres. Obama will suffer politically if his signature achievement is reversed, but in fact Obamacare's downfall may be Obama's best hope for reelection.
As Shout Bits has argued on several occasions, Obamacare is deeply flawed both in principle and in policy. In principle, Obamacare inserts itself in private decisions where it is not wanted. The act compels individuals to buy a minimum amount of health care as well as outlawing buying more than a maximum amount (unless they are union members). Obamacare mandates certain medical products such as birth control and abortion, even for those who do not want them. In these areas, Obamacare is generally unpopular because Americans are rightly wary of further government intrusion into their lives.
Obamacare is also bad policy. The penalty for not buying government approved health care is less than its cost, which only encourages people to wait until they are sick to buy insurance. While even Solicitor Donald Verrilli argued that the "guaranteed issue" clause, which mandates insurance for sick people, should not stand without the individual-mandate, guaranteed issue is bad policy. Private insurance cannot work when insurers cannot isolate risk pools, which is what guaranteed issue does. Intentional or not, guaranteed issue is a one way path to single payer socialized health care. Guaranteed issue is actually popular with most Americans, but it is a socialist Trojan horse nonetheless.
Obamacare essentially raises the minimum pay of millions of uninsured workers to the point where their employment is unprofitable. An employee is a tool for an employer to make a profit, and the government cannot arbitrarily add ten thousand or more dollars to the cost of an employee without reducing the profit he generates. The employer's only rational response is to lay-off or simply not hire new employees. The US's labor participation and unemployment rates demonstrate an extremely weak jobs market, and Obamacare's bad policy is a main contributor. Without Obamacare's incentive to not hire moderately skilled and below workers, millions more people would be employed today. The US economy would clearly be better off without Obamacare's cloud of regulation, cost, and uncertainty.
If Obamacare is struck down, the Supreme Court will have handed Obama two swords. First, he will rail against the Court as being a political tool of the right. He will argue to his base that he must be given a second term to prevent the Court from listing even further right. The Court canard is perfect for Obama who prefers rhetoric over substance; also it is separated from his many policy failings. Second, without Obamacare, the economy and jobs market ought to improve. Voters like results more than excuses. Even if the economy were weak but improving, Obama would have the opportunity to get off his looser argument that 'it was Bush's fault' and return to his hope and change classics.
Shout Bits would gladly trade four more years of Obama for a complete reversal of Obamacare because unsustainable entitlements will be burdens until the final day the US Government exists, while second term Presidents rarely achieve much of anything. Shout Bits has also promised that everything Obama has done will be undone. So, if the Supreme Court this week exercises Solomonic judgment and strikes down Obama's health legislation in its entirety, don't be unduly sad if the decision leads to his reelection.
Shout Bits is available on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/ShoutBits
"Shout Bits" is insane.
“The Republicans want to take away your Healthcare” will be the war cry of the Dems no matter what the ruling is.
“The Republicans want to take away your Healthcare” will be the war cry of the DPelosi no matter what the ruling is. Bring it on Sasquatch!
I love this. The article is saying that if Obamacare is struck down, it’s a plus for Obama.
Here’s the bottom line: There is nothing.. absolutely nothing positive and lasting comeing out of this administration. All of us have been in a holding pattern same as we were with Carter.
Ahhhhhhhhh.......NO. Americans are overwhelmingly opposed to Obamacare. When SCOTUS strikes Obamascare down, Americans can breathe a sigh of relief and continue on with the business of ridding America of its namesake.
Is “Shout Bits” related to “The Factor”?
With the consistent polling numbers on how unpopular Obamacare is, good luck to him using this decision to attack an “out of control right wing court”.
I think in a practical sense it will actually help him by getting the albatross off from around his neck. It will also end the Catholic Church campaign against his mandate. The Bishops will go back to sleep and their flock will go back to pulling the straight party “D” handle. (the Bishops are actually praying for this result, as they don’t have the stomach for a head-on political battle with Obama).
Great article, but I respectfully disagree with this premise. The polls have shown that somewhere between 65 and 73% of Americans do not like Obamacare. They won't be swayed. The remaining percentages would either vote for Obama anyway, or consider this yet another fail to deliver on the part of Obama.
To the left, he's a loser, hasn't done enough damage to America, and the Supreme smackdown would further this very correct assessment.
Yes, he can utilize the "swords" you indicate he'll be given and probably will, but the loss of the mandate will eliminate the ability of Obama to fix health care the way he wanted to fix health care.
Great article, but I respectfully disagree with this premise. The polls have shown that somewhere between 65 and 73% of Americans do not like Obamacare.”
Unfortunately, the polling I have seen suggests that most Americans dislike the individual mandate, but most Americans really like the guaranteed issue (wait until you are sick to buy insurance).
While both are bad, buying health insurance is a good idea that should not be mandated. The fact that most Americans like the guaranteed issue is sad because that is just buying into a lie. Americans seem to broadly think the government can give them things they want - a failure of free market people to educate.
P.S. If this mirrors something on The Factor, I apologize. I never watch that show.
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