Skip to comments.Why Virgil Goode matters to Mitt Romney's presidential chances
Posted on 07/13/2012 9:00:22 PM PDT by techno
The complete Virgil Goode rundown:
The ten most asked questions about Virgil Goode and why he matters:
1) Who is Virgil Goode?
He is a former GOP Congressman from Virginia who was defeated in the 2010 election. He is now the presidential nominee for the Constitution Party, a third party.
2) How long has the Constitution Party been around?
About 20 years.
3) I hear that Virgil Goode is NOT yet on the Virginia presidential ballot. Will he fail to get on the ballot.
To give you some perspective, in 2004 and 2008 the Constitution Party presidential nominee was on the Virginia presidential ballot. As Goode is a resident of Virginia and a former Congressman, do you really think he would not know the ins and outs of getting on the ballot, which requires him to get 10,000 signatures with at least 400 from each congressional district. As of June 6, 2012 via the Martinsville Bulletin, a local newspaper, Goode had already collected 4000 signatures. And the article concluded that the Constitution Party had as of that date already collected enough signatures to be on the ballot in 17 states.
4) Third party presidential candidates don't normally a cause a ripple through the process. What's different about Virgil Goode?
Let's put it this way, if the presidential election were decided by popular vote, Goode wouldn't matter. But presidential elections are decided in the electoral college.
5)What do you mean Techno?
There are certain states which are called battleground or swing states in which either the Democratic presidential nominee could win but by the same token the GOP presidential nominee could prevail as well. There are ten or so states in the 2012 electoral college which could be considered battleground states based on recent presidential elections and current polling. Virginia is one of those states. And it is not out of the ordinary for the winner of a battleground state to win by a margin of less than 2%.
6) So again why is Goode important to Romney's chances to become president?
Because Goode apparently is far more popular in Virginia than any other state. A Public Policy poll (PPP) in May found that Goode would garner 5% of the vote in Virginia in the presidential election against Obama and Romney. And now a couple of days ago, Goode increased his share of the vote to 9% with Obama collected 49% of the vote and Romney 35%. Without Goode in the mix it would be Obama 50% and Romney 42%. And for those not schooled in the electoral college, the winner of the popular vote in the presidential race in Virgina earns Virginia's 13 electoral votes in 2012. And that now appears to be Obama and not Romney.
7) Are you saying Techno that Goode is taking away way more voters away from Romney than he is Obama?
Exactly, that is what I am saying, But I am NOT the only one saying that. Local Virginia pundits are saying that as well. And PPP in its summary of the poll found that too. If you don't believe me, go over to the PPP web site and read it for yourself.
8)Techno, I'm lazy. I don't want to go over to PPP and read their s*it. Could you give me a brief synopsis?
Alright brother and sister. Under the Obama--Romney--Goode scenario in Virginia here is how the vote breaks down in four demographics: very conservative voters, somewhat conservative voters, Republicans and independents:
It doesn't take a genius to figure out Goode hurts Romney way more than he hurts Obama.
9) But don't third party bids eventually fizzle out?
Yes, that is the rule of thumb nationally. But in Virginia Goode ahs gained 4% in support since May and he's not even on the Virginia ballot yet. Even if he drops back to his previous level of support of 5% that would still be enough to sink Romney's ship in Virginia in a close contest.
10) Techno, could you explain why Virginia is so important?
It comes down to the number of electoral votes (EV) in the electoral college. The general consensus among the folks who do it for a living is that President Obama currently sits at 247 EV when you include all the safe blue states and those states leaning to Obama (likely to win). If Obama wins VA, a battleground state, that takes him to 260 EV and therefore only needs 10 more EV to hit the 270 EV threshold to win re-election. And here are the four swing states which Obama must win these 10 votes again based on a consensus of experts: Iowa (6), NH(4), Nevada (6) and Colorado (9). Obama is currently enjoying a small margin in the polls in every state but Iowa and is running neck and neck with Romney there.
Of course the dynamic of the race could shift in the next three months or so but it appears Obama has the edge in winning Colorado and its 9 EV. If he did that he would reach 269 EV and would only need to win one of the remaining three states to get a second term.
As for Mitt Romney if he loses Virginia, assuming he wins the other huge 4 swing states of Ohio, NC, Indiana and Florida and reaches 253 EV, Romney would be forced to win Colorado to have any chance of winning the presidency in the electoral college. The best he could hope for otherwise is a tie (269-269) in which case the contest goes to the House of Representatives.
One other element to consider: In 2008 President Obama won 1 EV in Nebraska who allots it EV by whoever wins the congressional district. Obama actually won this district (Omaha) by 9.77% which is a pretty hefty margin. If Obama could again win this district and on top of it win Virginia and Colorado that would take him to 270 EV on the button and Romney would be denied regardless of what he did in Iowa, NH and Nevada.
A final note: If Romney can win Virginia with Ohio, NC, Indiana and Florida he would then be at 266 EV. He would then not be forced to win Colorado but would only have to be victorious in Iowa to become the new president.
And that folks is why Team Obama has had many sleepless nights over the past 3 years. Virgil Goode is a godsend for Obama and his team.
I'm too old to continue holding my nose. I'm going to let the callus heal for once.
Only a fool would support Goode.
(But I am betting lots of Obama supporters will figure out ways to contribute to Goode’s campaign!)
Including being some of the 10,000 signatures required.
No baby-killers or anti-gunners need to apply for my vote.
We’ll see if VG can get enough signatures to start.
Mittins needs to make ole Virgil an offer he can’t refuse.
Why? Politically (if nothing else), thats like the lion bargaining with the mouse.
The next POTUS is going to be Romney or 0bama. Get over it.
I'm over it. I know the fix is in.
I'm still working out which non-abortion, pro-gun, small government candidate I'm going to vote for.
I certainly don't expect them to win. Not when so-called conservatives cave.
And neither will receive my vote.
The CP is 20 years old.
How many elected CPers are in the US Congress?
They are much smarter than us hoi-paloi that actually vote, they keep telling us.
I’m even less inclined to vote for Virgil Goode than I am Romney. Just because the Republicans nominate a lackluster candidate doesn’t mean that the CP needs to top them in being underwhelming.
Thank you for calling a spade a spade. THese clowns who vote for pretend candidates and then make sure everyone knows how freaking cool they are are the exact opposite of conservatism. Corks proud to float on the sea of stupidity - disgusting.
Is this a joke?
Either the poll methodology is screwed, or 7 percent are lying. No “VERY CONSERVATIVE” person, much less 7%, will be voting for Obama.
The election is already over. Romney will win easily. No landslide - but easily.
FYI PPP is consistently though not always showing whacko Bloomberg-ish point spreads. The “+8” for Obama in VA from July 5 can be ignored ... PPP is often an out-lier ... and worse, an inconsistent outlier.
There is not enough recent poll data to tell anything from RCP re: VA. (there are 5 polls, but they go back to Obama’s choom days ... May)
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