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Why Virgil Goode matters to Mitt Romney's presidential chances
July 14, 2012 | techno

Posted on 07/13/2012 9:00:22 PM PDT by techno

The complete Virgil Goode rundown:

The ten most asked questions about Virgil Goode and why he matters:

1) Who is Virgil Goode?

He is a former GOP Congressman from Virginia who was defeated in the 2010 election. He is now the presidential nominee for the Constitution Party, a third party.

2) How long has the Constitution Party been around?

About 20 years.

3) I hear that Virgil Goode is NOT yet on the Virginia presidential ballot. Will he fail to get on the ballot.

To give you some perspective, in 2004 and 2008 the Constitution Party presidential nominee was on the Virginia presidential ballot. As Goode is a resident of Virginia and a former Congressman, do you really think he would not know the ins and outs of getting on the ballot, which requires him to get 10,000 signatures with at least 400 from each congressional district. As of June 6, 2012 via the Martinsville Bulletin, a local newspaper, Goode had already collected 4000 signatures. And the article concluded that the Constitution Party had as of that date already collected enough signatures to be on the ballot in 17 states.

4) Third party presidential candidates don't normally a cause a ripple through the process. What's different about Virgil Goode?

Let's put it this way, if the presidential election were decided by popular vote, Goode wouldn't matter. But presidential elections are decided in the electoral college.

5)What do you mean Techno?

There are certain states which are called battleground or swing states in which either the Democratic presidential nominee could win but by the same token the GOP presidential nominee could prevail as well. There are ten or so states in the 2012 electoral college which could be considered battleground states based on recent presidential elections and current polling. Virginia is one of those states. And it is not out of the ordinary for the winner of a battleground state to win by a margin of less than 2%.

6) So again why is Goode important to Romney's chances to become president?

Because Goode apparently is far more popular in Virginia than any other state. A Public Policy poll (PPP) in May found that Goode would garner 5% of the vote in Virginia in the presidential election against Obama and Romney. And now a couple of days ago, Goode increased his share of the vote to 9% with Obama collected 49% of the vote and Romney 35%. Without Goode in the mix it would be Obama 50% and Romney 42%. And for those not schooled in the electoral college, the winner of the popular vote in the presidential race in Virgina earns Virginia's 13 electoral votes in 2012. And that now appears to be Obama and not Romney.

7) Are you saying Techno that Goode is taking away way more voters away from Romney than he is Obama?

Exactly, that is what I am saying, But I am NOT the only one saying that. Local Virginia pundits are saying that as well. And PPP in its summary of the poll found that too. If you don't believe me, go over to the PPP web site and read it for yourself.

8)Techno, I'm lazy. I don't want to go over to PPP and read their s*it. Could you give me a brief synopsis?

Alright brother and sister. Under the Obama--Romney--Goode scenario in Virginia here is how the vote breaks down in four demographics: very conservative voters, somewhat conservative voters, Republicans and independents:

----------------------OBAMA--------ROMNEY-----GOODE

VERY CONSERVATIVE-------7-----------84----------7

SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE---19----------55----------14

REPUBLICANS-------------9-----------78----------9

INDEPENDENTS------------45----------26----------17

It doesn't take a genius to figure out Goode hurts Romney way more than he hurts Obama.

9) But don't third party bids eventually fizzle out?

Yes, that is the rule of thumb nationally. But in Virginia Goode ahs gained 4% in support since May and he's not even on the Virginia ballot yet. Even if he drops back to his previous level of support of 5% that would still be enough to sink Romney's ship in Virginia in a close contest.

10) Techno, could you explain why Virginia is so important?

It comes down to the number of electoral votes (EV) in the electoral college. The general consensus among the folks who do it for a living is that President Obama currently sits at 247 EV when you include all the safe blue states and those states leaning to Obama (likely to win). If Obama wins VA, a battleground state, that takes him to 260 EV and therefore only needs 10 more EV to hit the 270 EV threshold to win re-election. And here are the four swing states which Obama must win these 10 votes again based on a consensus of experts: Iowa (6), NH(4), Nevada (6) and Colorado (9). Obama is currently enjoying a small margin in the polls in every state but Iowa and is running neck and neck with Romney there.

Of course the dynamic of the race could shift in the next three months or so but it appears Obama has the edge in winning Colorado and its 9 EV. If he did that he would reach 269 EV and would only need to win one of the remaining three states to get a second term.

As for Mitt Romney if he loses Virginia, assuming he wins the other huge 4 swing states of Ohio, NC, Indiana and Florida and reaches 253 EV, Romney would be forced to win Colorado to have any chance of winning the presidency in the electoral college. The best he could hope for otherwise is a tie (269-269) in which case the contest goes to the House of Representatives.

One other element to consider: In 2008 President Obama won 1 EV in Nebraska who allots it EV by whoever wins the congressional district. Obama actually won this district (Omaha) by 9.77% which is a pretty hefty margin. If Obama could again win this district and on top of it win Virginia and Colorado that would take him to 270 EV on the button and Romney would be denied regardless of what he did in Iowa, NH and Nevada.

A final note: If Romney can win Virginia with Ohio, NC, Indiana and Florida he would then be at 266 EV. He would then not be forced to win Colorado but would only have to be victorious in Iowa to become the new president.

And that folks is why Team Obama has had many sleepless nights over the past 3 years. Virgil Goode is a godsend for Obama and his team.


TOPICS: Politics
KEYWORDS: goode; obama; palin; presidential; romney; virgilgoode
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1 posted on 07/13/2012 9:00:29 PM PDT by techno
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To: techno
I'm voting for Gary Johnson. Screw it!

I'm too old to continue holding my nose. I'm going to let the callus heal for once.

2 posted on 07/13/2012 9:03:31 PM PDT by gorush (History repeats itself because human nature is static)
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To: techno
Virgil Goode is a former Democrat, and Goode is the best friend Obama has ever had.

Only a fool would support Goode.

(But I am betting lots of Obama supporters will figure out ways to contribute to Goode’s campaign!)

3 posted on 07/13/2012 9:05:21 PM PDT by Kansas58
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To: Kansas58

Including being some of the 10,000 signatures required.


4 posted on 07/13/2012 9:08:46 PM PDT by techno
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To: techno
GOP-e should have thought of that before the pushed and cheated to get Romney. Who still, by the way, isn't the official candidate, unless the convention was held while I was sleeping.

Oops.

No baby-killers or anti-gunners need to apply for my vote.

/johnny

5 posted on 07/13/2012 9:11:55 PM PDT by JRandomFreeper (Gone Galt)
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To: techno

We’ll see if VG can get enough signatures to start.


6 posted on 07/13/2012 9:12:42 PM PDT by 103198
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To: techno

Mittins needs to make ole Virgil an offer he can’t refuse.


7 posted on 07/13/2012 9:16:16 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: smoothsailing

Why? Politically (if nothing else), thats like the lion bargaining with the mouse.


8 posted on 07/13/2012 9:20:46 PM PDT by Copenhagen Smile (Ask me no questions, I"ll tell you no lies)
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To: techno

The next POTUS is going to be Romney or 0bama. Get over it.


9 posted on 07/13/2012 9:23:01 PM PDT by wjcsux ("In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." - George Orwell)
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To: wjcsux
Get over it.

I'm over it. I know the fix is in.

I'm still working out which non-abortion, pro-gun, small government candidate I'm going to vote for.

I certainly don't expect them to win. Not when so-called conservatives cave.

/johnny

10 posted on 07/13/2012 9:29:57 PM PDT by JRandomFreeper (Gone Galt)
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To: wjcsux

And neither will receive my vote.


11 posted on 07/13/2012 9:32:02 PM PDT by Ingtar ("As the light begins to fade in the city on the hill")
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To: JRandomFreeper
No baby-killers or anti-gunners need to apply for my vote.

/johnny


Yes, you'll just act in such a way as to facilitate the one already in there and the bureaucratic machinery he's put in place.
12 posted on 07/13/2012 9:33:50 PM PDT by aruanan
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To: techno

The CP is 20 years old.

How many elected CPers are in the US Congress?


13 posted on 07/13/2012 9:34:32 PM PDT by NoLibZone (We must get down on our knees each day and thank God that McCain/Palin didn't win in '08. Right?)
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To: techno
  Barry Mitt notGoode
VERY CONSERVATIVE 7 84 7
SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE 19 55 14
REPUBLICANS 9 78 9
INDEPENDENTS 45 26 17

14 posted on 07/13/2012 9:35:10 PM PDT by skeama (On what day did God create Barack Obama, and couldn't He have rested on that day.)
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To: aruanan
GOP-e should have calculated for that effect.

They are much smarter than us hoi-paloi that actually vote, they keep telling us.

/johnny

15 posted on 07/13/2012 9:35:49 PM PDT by JRandomFreeper (Gone Galt)
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To: aruanan
Are you encouraging me to vote for a pro-abortion, anti-gun candidate here on FR?

Which one?

/johnny

16 posted on 07/13/2012 9:37:55 PM PDT by JRandomFreeper (Gone Galt)
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To: techno

I’m even less inclined to vote for Virgil Goode than I am Romney. Just because the Republicans nominate a lackluster candidate doesn’t mean that the CP needs to top them in being underwhelming.


17 posted on 07/13/2012 9:40:05 PM PDT by Infralutheran
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To: aruanan

Thank you for calling a spade a spade. THese clowns who vote for pretend candidates and then make sure everyone knows how freaking cool they are are the exact opposite of conservatism. Corks proud to float on the sea of stupidity - disgusting.


18 posted on 07/13/2012 9:40:43 PM PDT by Hegewisch Dupa
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To: Hegewisch Dupa
Which pro-abortion, anti-gun, big government candidate are you suggesting I vote for?

/johnny

19 posted on 07/13/2012 9:44:35 PM PDT by JRandomFreeper (Gone Galt)
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To: wjcsux

Is this a joke?
VERY CONSERVATIVE-———7-—————84—————7

????
Either the poll methodology is screwed, or 7 percent are lying. No “VERY CONSERVATIVE” person, much less 7%, will be voting for Obama.

The election is already over. Romney will win easily. No landslide - but easily.

FYI PPP is consistently though not always showing whacko Bloomberg-ish point spreads. The “+8” for Obama in VA from July 5 can be ignored ... PPP is often an out-lier ... and worse, an inconsistent outlier.

There is not enough recent poll data to tell anything from RCP re: VA. (there are 5 polls, but they go back to Obama’s choom days ... May)


20 posted on 07/13/2012 9:44:59 PM PDT by skeama (On what day did God create Barack Obama, and couldn't He have rested on that day.)
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To: JRandomFreeper

oh you came up with a clever lil line - how cute! It will make an awesome bumper sticker for obama’s 2nd term. At least for the first 6 months when you can afford gas.


21 posted on 07/13/2012 9:48:40 PM PDT by Hegewisch Dupa
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To: skeama

Next to Ron Paul, Mittens was my last choice. He isn’t the ideal Conservative candidate but I don’t think he will even come close to causing the damage Zero has. As I learned in my EMT days, the first thing you do is save the victim’s life. Unfortunately, this is where we are as a country. If we continue on our current path as a nation, we are dead. We need to get the country out of “Critical Condition” before we can worry about restoring quality of life. Sitting this election out or voting 3rd Party is a non-starter.


22 posted on 07/13/2012 9:56:15 PM PDT by wjcsux ("In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." - George Orwell)
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To: Hegewisch Dupa
I'm not clever. I'm a cook. I run cleavers.

I cut to the bone. Which pro-abortion, anti-gun, big government candidate are you pushing?

Because I won't vote for anyone like that.

You are avoiding the question.

/johnny

23 posted on 07/13/2012 9:57:03 PM PDT by JRandomFreeper (Gone Galt)
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To: Hegewisch Dupa

How come you didn’t answer his question?


24 posted on 07/13/2012 9:57:24 PM PDT by Pelham (John Roberts: the cherry on top of judicial tyranny.)
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To: Pelham

Probably because it isn’t a question.


25 posted on 07/13/2012 9:59:23 PM PDT by Hegewisch Dupa
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To: Hegewisch Dupa
It's a question. One the Lord may ask you about, someday.

I know my answer to it.

Yep, the fallout is gonna suck sissors. Such is life.

I don't have to enjoy anything. I do have to do what is right.

/johnny

26 posted on 07/13/2012 10:03:49 PM PDT by JRandomFreeper (Gone Galt)
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To: techno

As long as the two-party leftist big gubmint cabal puts up Zero and Willard, I will vote for Goode over evil.


27 posted on 07/13/2012 10:11:25 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (If you like lying Socialist dirtbags, you'll love Slick Willard)
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To: Kansas58
Only a fool would support Goode.

Then I must be a fool.

There is no way I will throw my conscience, my honor, or my principles away and vote for a lying, left-wing, Progressive Liberal like Mitt Romney.
28 posted on 07/13/2012 10:15:53 PM PDT by SoConPubbie (Mitt and Obama: They're the same poison, just a different potency.)
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To: Kansas58
Goode is a good man. I know him. Very principled and a true conservative. He is rock solid on the immigration issue and believes in the Constitution and the Rule of Law. Virgil is a favorite of the Virginia Tea Party Federation. There is no doubt he will take votes away from Romney.

Virgil detests Obama. And he doesn't like RINOs like George Allen. I understand why some Reps will be unhappy with him running, but Virgil is his own man. I won't be voting for him because I want VA to go to Romney in order to defeat Obama, but many VA conservatives will vote for Goode.

29 posted on 07/13/2012 10:16:17 PM PDT by kabar
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To: techno; VinL; ex-snook; sport; INVAR; ejonesie22; PieterCasparzen; Colonel_Flagg; Washi; ...

Virgil Goode Ping!


30 posted on 07/13/2012 10:17:23 PM PDT by SoConPubbie (Mitt and Obama: They're the same poison, just a different potency.)
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To: Kansas58

That person would still be far less of a fool than the idiots who vote for twin socialists and gay agenda advocates Obonghit or Romneycare.


31 posted on 07/13/2012 10:21:21 PM PDT by MrEdd (Heck? Geewhiz Cripes, thats the place where people who don't believe in Gosh think they aint going.)
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To: Hegewisch Dupa
THese clowns who vote for pretend candidates

Ah, so if a candidate is put forward that isn't Democratic or Republican they're pretend?
...hm, I wonder if the Democratic-Republican party and Whig party said the same thing.

The Republican party is so underwhelming in pursuing its stated platform planks that I'm surprised they're at all in any power.
Abortion -- aside from banning partial-birth abortions, where the child is murdered literally as it's being born, what strides towards ending abortion has the Republican-party made?
Fiscal responsibility -- what have they done to encourage this? Especially since congress is required by law (Congressional Budget Act) to pass a budget.
Government Accountability -- How long has it taken to get anything, anything done with respect to Fast & Furious? Ah, well, I mean F&F wasn't that big a deal, only: 1. violating domestic laws; 2. violating treaties; 3. an unauthorized act of war; 4. state sponsored terrorism; 5. treason*.
    (* All that would be needed to convict the F&F players of treason is to show that the drug cartels are enemies of the several states; F&F was providing both arms [aid] and legal protections [comfort] to the cartels.)
Smaller government -- When was the last time a government agency was cut? (This does not include simply rolling the employees up into another agency.)

Yeah; unless the GOP starts to actually do what it says then I see no reason to aid its existence by voting for its candidates.

32 posted on 07/13/2012 10:21:38 PM PDT by OneWingedShark (Q: Why am I here? A: To do Justly, to love mercy, and to walk humbly with my God.)
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To: wjcsux

And people who vote for either will properly be chastised for suporting homosexuality, abortion, and socialism.

Get used to it.

Very, very used to it.

Because if you vote for either of them that consequence will be with you for a very long time.

Unless, of course you vote quietly and secretely and nobody ever knows.


33 posted on 07/13/2012 10:25:13 PM PDT by MrEdd (Heck? Geewhiz Cripes, thats the place where people who don't believe in Gosh think they aint going.)
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To: Hegewisch Dupa

“Probably because it isn’t a question.”

Really? It sure looks like a question to me. It has the form of a question. In fact it’s not an especially difficult question: it requires an answer from a set containing only two members.


34 posted on 07/13/2012 10:28:41 PM PDT by Pelham (John Roberts: the cherry on top of judicial tyranny.)
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To: MrEdd
I don't intend to say anything to those that are scared into voting for any candidate.

Supposed to be a cease fire, or something.

One way kind of street, mind you...

/johnny

35 posted on 07/13/2012 10:30:19 PM PDT by JRandomFreeper (Gone Galt)
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To: kabar

There must be many stupid conservatives in VA. No matter how you slice it, simple logic dictates that a vote for Goode is a vote for Obama.


36 posted on 07/13/2012 10:30:45 PM PDT by gusty
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To: Pelham

nice that you finally admit there are only two candidates - that’s a step in the right direction


37 posted on 07/13/2012 10:34:07 PM PDT by Hegewisch Dupa
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To: gusty
No, they are not stupid. The GOP Establishment has thumbed its nose at conservatives for a long time. People are tired of holding their noses to vote for candidates like McCain and now Romney. Reagan was the last real conservative to be nominated.

It remains to be seen who Romney nominates as VP, but if he isn't a conservative, more people will vote for Goode who is the real thing.

38 posted on 07/13/2012 10:36:30 PM PDT by kabar
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To: Hegewisch Dupa
Ummmm....

Set A. Those candidates that support abortion, are anti-gun and for big government.

Set B. Those candidates that are against killing babies, believe in allowing humans to have firearms, and want to reduce government.

Howzabout those sets?

/johnny

39 posted on 07/13/2012 10:37:58 PM PDT by JRandomFreeper (Gone Galt)
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To: OneWingedShark

The Democratic-Republican Party(Jefferson, Madison, Monroe) and the Whig Party (Clay, Harrison, Webster) were one of the two major parties of their time. D-R party was paired with the Federalists, and for a time was the only party during Monroe and JQ Adams. The Whigs were the opposition to the Jacksonian Democrats. Your examples were not third parties, they were the major ones. A better example you should have chosen was the Know Nothing Party. Even they had way more support then today’s fringe third parties.


40 posted on 07/13/2012 10:37:58 PM PDT by gusty
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To: kabar

Maybe stupid is not the right word. How about immature and lacking a sense of reality. Maybe even living in a bubble, unaware of the realities of life. A lot of that going around lately.


41 posted on 07/13/2012 10:40:53 PM PDT by gusty
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To: JRandomFreeper
If they are nasty to those who hold the line on social issues, they get a consequence.

I do this IRL with people who voted McCain here in Texas.

The people who post “Obambi thanks you” crap will be occasionally pinged to threads on homosexual activism or abortion and I will point out both that they got what they personally wanted...and that they set the rules for this. For good measure I will ping the mods, and let them make the call as to whether it amounts to stalking.

I did this for a bit with boobs who not only insisted there was no real estate bubble about to burst, but got nasty on that one.

I guess I have a sin problem with “I told you so”s.

42 posted on 07/13/2012 10:41:15 PM PDT by MrEdd (Heck? Geewhiz Cripes, thats the place where people who don't believe in Gosh think they aint going.)
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To: gusty

Slick Willardbot logic... A vote for a pro-Constitutional Conservative is a vote for a Communist. Right.


43 posted on 07/13/2012 10:48:09 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (If you like lying Socialist dirtbags, you'll love Slick Willard)
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To: MrEdd
In theory, I'm supposed to be celibate, make bread, beer, raise veggies, keep my mouth shut and follow rules.

I will follow the rules on not doing harsh smackdown on those that are frightened into voting one way or the other.

Talk about difficult tasks...

/johnny

44 posted on 07/13/2012 10:48:36 PM PDT by JRandomFreeper (Gone Galt)
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To: gusty

Math is lost on Onanists. By definition, they can’t beyond one.


45 posted on 07/13/2012 10:51:47 PM PDT by Hegewisch Dupa
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To: gusty
Every four years we get people like you saying that we must vote for the GOP candidate even if he is not a conservative or holds positions on important issues that go against a person's strongly held beliefs.

I regret my vote for McCain in 2008 after driving over 4,000 miles in four weeks demonstrating against him in the primaries because of his amnesty stance, support of cap and trade, etc. The GOP nominated its maverick to be the standard bearer. I had to hold my nose to vote for the bastard. And now I will be doing the same thing again.

If Romney loses, I see a third party arising before the next election. The tea party movement will be the vehicle. If you think that McConnell, Boehner, and Cantor are going to make any major changes like reducing spending if the GOP controls Congress and the WH, you are delusional. Dems and Reps are just two wings of the same party.

46 posted on 07/13/2012 10:51:58 PM PDT by kabar
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To: kabar

“Virgil detests Obama.”

No he doesn’t. His running only increases the chances of Obama taking Virginia. He knows this. He stands a snowball’s chance in hades of winning but will run anyway so that Obama can win...it’s really simple to understand.


47 posted on 07/13/2012 10:52:28 PM PDT by MissouriConservative (Voting Anyone but Obama in 2012.)
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To: fieldmarshaldj

No, non-looneytune logic. A vote for a candidate that will receive under 1% of the vote is a vote for a Communist.


48 posted on 07/13/2012 10:52:56 PM PDT by gusty
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To: gusty
Your examples were not third parties, they were the major ones.

Er, that was the point. They were major parties; they aren't any more.

49 posted on 07/13/2012 10:55:03 PM PDT by OneWingedShark (Q: Why am I here? A: To do Justly, to love mercy, and to walk humbly with my God.)
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To: Hegewisch Dupa

Your a real Rambo on that keyboard.


50 posted on 07/13/2012 10:55:03 PM PDT by gusty
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