Skip to comments.Mitt Romney and why the Virginia-Colorado scenario means his defeat
Posted on 07/14/2012 7:13:11 PM PDT by techno
Search around the internet and among most pundits you will find this conclusion:
Among sure blue states and blue states that lean blue President Obama now commands 247 electoral votes (EV) adjusted for the 2010 census.
These states include:
Washington state (12)
New Mexico (5)
New York State (29)
New Jersey (14)
Rhode Island (4)
Now Mitt Romney commands 180 EV adjusted for the 2010 census:
South Dakota (3)
North Dakota (3)
South Carolina (9)
West Virginia (5)
Now that accounts for 427 EV which leaves 111 EV outstanding.
Now here is how they break down:
a) 5 largest battleground states
North Carolina (15)
Total 86 EV
And finally 4 smaller swing states:
New Hampshire (4)
Total 25 EV
Now here is how a lot of pundits see the 2012 election. Bottom line--Romney needs to win 4 of the 5 largest battleground states: Indiana appears to be in the bag, but he needs to win Florida for sure and 2 of 3 of Ohio, VA, and NC at a bare minimum to have any chance of becoming the president.
For example with the Goode candidacy putting Virginia in doubt for Romney if Romney were to win Indiana, Ohio, NC and Florida that would increase his total by 73 EV to 253 EV. He would therefore need 17 EV to eke out a bare victory.
Now why I call it the Virgina-Colorado scenario is if Romney loses Virginia he is then forced to win Colorado with its 9 EV and and 2 out of 3 of Iowa, Nevada and NH. In other words if Romney loses both Virginia and Colorado, Obama will be re-elected.
So this begs two questions:
a) What can Romney do to have any chance to win Virginia?
b) What can Romney do to have any chance of winning Colorado?
Imho, he needs to put a rock-ribbed conservative on the ticket who has the ability to "steal" Goode's conservative support away from him. Otherwise he has to pray Goode doesn't get the 10,000 required signatures to get on the ballot or Goode dies of a heart attack.
As for Colorado, he needs to put on the ticket a westerner with either libertarian or Hispanic ties at a minimum or a rock-ribbed conservative to win over evangelical voters in Colorado. A cushy safe moderate won't cut it in CO or VA.
And conservatives, I think you have to start asking yourself this question: Do you really want to go into the election with a candidate as flawed as Romney or failing that don't you think it would be in your best interests to demand Romney put a rock-ribbed conservative on the ticket to at least to give him a shot at either Virginia or Colorado or both?
LOL- didn’t you last attempt with this garbage 15 minutes ago get put in the recycle bin by the moderators???
as far as your pie in the sky dream about Goode costing Romney the state of Virginia- did you bother to look at the PPP polls you contrived this garbage from last time before it was sent to the crapper??? did you notice the poll had a +12 rat tilt in the data???
The polls have them tied by heavily oversampling democrappers. We need conservatives in the House and Senate to whak romney in the head not to do stoooopid things.
0 wins 2 states and DC.
If the federal personal income tax is causing you problems get rid of it. The thing was intended to tap only the top 1% or 2% anyway. The fact it taps the top 53% is a crime.
Get with the picture. None of us approve of higher taxes on anybody ~ except you guys with your personal income tax garbage.
Are you sure about that? I was in Berkeley (California) today and counted a total of about THREE BO/Biden bumper stickers.
My count is:
Romney 206 EV
Obama 201 EV
with Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Virginia, Colorado, Utah and Iowa up for grabs. The idea that Obama has 247 EVs lock up is silly almost as silly as the idea that North Carolina is a swing state.
Correction: California + New York = 84 votes.
Hope you’re right.
To your way of thinking, heck why even bother HAVING an election, let’s just give Obama the election now.
Getting sick of this stuff real fast.
Obama is now losing “Wisconsin (10)”
And Obama is behind in Iowa.
Hes already doing that every other day
Rasmussen has already given Michigan and Pennsylvania to Obama.
As for Utah, Romney has their 6 EV in the bag.
In the RCP average of polls they have Wisconsin at:
I’m not going to totally disagree with you on Wisconsin but I think putting Paul Ryan on the ticket might give me a little more confidence that Romney could pull it off.
I see Obama winning Wisconsin by about 3-4 points. But a win is a win.
LOL- class envy and hatred??? funny thing; besides your delusional rhetoric which is commonly found on sites such as democratic underground, you’ve done nothing to prove my tagline is anything but true...
you keep pining for virgil goode- i’ll keep laughing at you....
The latest NY Times map shows you to be incorrect.
Forget Goode. Looming defense cuts and no support from Kaine will doom Obama in VA.
Just a reality check. Jimmah Carter was up by over 12 points at the end of September in 1980. We all know how that turned out.
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