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Stop Worrying About “Peak Oil”
Principles & Policy ^ | July 28th, 2012

Posted on 07/28/2012 8:29:10 PM PDT by Sark

For decades, the threat of “peak oil” has hung over policymakers of the developed world. The basic premise of peak oil is simple and difficult to argue with: At a certain point, we’ll extract as much petroleum as possible, and after that “peak,” our rate of extraction will inevitably decline. Since it takes so long for petroleum to develop naturally, there’s for all intents and purposes a finite amount of it on Earth. So, our rate of extraction can’t possibly continue rising forever. At some point, we will hit peak oil.

Of course, that’s not the whole theory. Nearly all peak oil theorists argue that following peak oil, chaos will erupt. As so many of our energy needs and products in the developed world rely on the energy produced from petroleum, an inexorable decline in its supply will wreak havoc on our society. This declining supply combined with the rising demand for oil will lead to higher and higher prices. Now, they’re not arguing that the exact moment we hit peak oil will immediately devastate our society or something along those lines. In fact, many don’t consider the actual timing of peak oil to be very important.

However, most do believe that the negative consequences of declining oil production associated with peak oil will rapidly become severe, as the rising price of oil will impact every sector of the economy. Modern peak oil theorists grant that the rising price of oil may occasionally dip as new discoveries are found and more efficient technologies are invented, but they don’t consider either of these periodic drops in the price of oil very important in the long-run. Finally, they argue that peak oil is right around the corner. Are they correct?

(Excerpt) Read more at principlesandpolicy.wordpress.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Government; Politics; Society
KEYWORDS: energy; entrepreneurship; oil; peakoil; regulation

1 posted on 07/28/2012 8:29:21 PM PDT by Sark
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To: Sark

Another hole in Peak Oil, hydrocarbons are prevalent throughout the solar system and therefore likely NOT the result of organic decomposition.

Titan has oceans of methane for example:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Titan_(moon)


2 posted on 07/28/2012 8:39:39 PM PDT by ChinaGotTheGoodsOnClinton (Go Egypt on 0bama)
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To: Sark
Peak oil is like global warming. It has been proven to be based on false assumptions.

Peak oil theory says there is a finite amount of oil and natural gas available and that this total amount available can be measured with precision. Using those assumptions the conclusion is we will soon run out of oil and natural gas.

The total amount oil and natural gas that supposedly was available in the late 1970’s was less than 20% of the total oil and natural gas that has been produced since then. In short peak oil theory has simply been wrong. It has been very wrong. Yet most politicians still believe it without question.

3 posted on 07/28/2012 8:51:28 PM PDT by detective
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To: Sark

Peak Oil is a lie.

Oil is NOT a “Fossil” fuel.

Oil is NOT “million year old dinosaurs”.

Oil is produced naturally under the pressures of the Earth and it does NOT take millions of years.

We discover oil every day and in places and forms NOT possible under the “Dead Dino” theory.

The shale and sands oils, along with the natural gas deposits discovered and turned operational in the last few years can supply the US with 300 years worth of 100% of our current use.

I predict, that if this nation lasts another 300 years and if the Good Lord tarries as well, that we will find MORE oil by then.

Peak Oil is a LIE !


4 posted on 07/28/2012 8:53:43 PM PDT by Waywardson (If you fear Obama..... vote for Romney. If you fear God... DON'T !)
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To: Sark

It’s peak CHEAP oil that we need to worry about.
It’s peak easy-to-get oil.

There will always be oil ... for a price.


5 posted on 07/28/2012 9:11:11 PM PDT by Lorianne (fedgov, taxporkmoney)
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To: Sark

Even if true, the only thing that stands in the way of our energy survival is envirowhacko’s. Syn fuels from coal are very viable and we have enough reserves for centuries.


6 posted on 07/28/2012 9:27:19 PM PDT by umgud (No Rats, No Rino's)
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To: umgud
The envirowhacko and chief wants energy prices to “necessarily” sky rocket. This is all about political power and not a sincere concern for the environment. He who controls energy production and distribution controls all of us.
7 posted on 07/28/2012 9:41:45 PM PDT by fireman15 (Check your facts before making ignorant statements.)
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To: Waywardson

Deep hot biosphere ping


8 posted on 07/28/2012 9:55:25 PM PDT by Noumenon (I will not pay the Obama jizya.)
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To: Sark

Are they correct?

I na word, no


9 posted on 07/28/2012 10:09:36 PM PDT by Figment
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To: Sark

Robert Zubrin recently pointed out that US oil production had grown an average of 3.5 per cent per year since the inception of the oil industry until 1970, at which point production started to decline. 1970 was also the year that the EPA was formed and the year it started creating obstructions for the energy industry, among others.

Had the EPA not been formed the long-term growth rate would have continued and current domestic production would have been 35 million barrels per day. Not only would all domestic needs be met, but the USA would also be the world’s largest oil exporter.

As others have commented on the thread, oil is abiotic; it is not the product of decayed life forms but rather one of the primal materials that formed the earth. The recoverable quantities are massive and the human race will move onto other forms of energy (not the worthless ‘green’ technologies currently being shoved down our throats) long before they can be depleted.

A very good summary of the scientific facts and arguments can behind the the abiotic theory of oil can be read in Thomas Gold’s “The Deep Hot Biosphere”.


10 posted on 07/28/2012 10:58:35 PM PDT by KamperKen
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To: Sark

Common sense trumps hysteria.


11 posted on 07/28/2012 11:01:05 PM PDT by WildWeasel
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To: Sark

Common sense trumps hysteria.


12 posted on 07/28/2012 11:01:19 PM PDT by WildWeasel
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To: Waywardson

Peak Oil is a lie.


Proven.


13 posted on 07/29/2012 12:00:04 AM PDT by 98ZJ USMC
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To: Waywardson

Oil is NOT a “Fossil” fuel.

Oil is NOT “million year old dinosaurs”.


I’ve got to hear this explanation.


14 posted on 07/29/2012 12:33:29 AM PDT by Dusty Road
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To: Dusty Road

Nobody knows how oil forms.

The biotic theory is that it is the product of dead plants and animals forming oil after millions and millions of years.

A newer abiotic theory is that the earth simply manufactures it from a source of inorganic carbon, just as the earth forms coal and diamonds.

http://origeminorganicadopetroleo.blogspot.com/2011/02/normal-0-21-false-false-false-pt-br-x.html


15 posted on 07/29/2012 2:01:25 AM PDT by Freedom_Is_Not_Free (REPEAL OBAMACARE. Nothing else matters.)
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To: Sark

Peak Oil is false - but not because of the Abiotic Oil theory. If Oil reservoirs are indeed filling up again they are doing it at a rate far too slow to be measured.

We are not at Peak Oil because human ingenuity has consistently discovered new ways to get the fuel out of progresively more intractable reservoirs.

The only thing retarding this free-market process is Government: that frequently blocks energy initiatives in order to serve its green/communist agenda.


16 posted on 07/29/2012 2:02:31 AM PDT by agere_contra (Vote ABO. Don't choose the Greater Evil and then boast about how principled you are)
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To: Dusty Road
Oil is NOT a “Fossil” fuel. Oil is NOT “million year old dinosaurs”.

Both oil and coal are fossil fuels: you can actually see extinct fossil ferns in coal. Oil...not so much!

Oil drawn from Earth deposits contains tiny—and extinct—plants and animals.

17 posted on 07/29/2012 2:06:47 AM PDT by Does so (....... Justice Scalia just turned 78 .........==8-O ............They don't think ... they PLOT!)
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To: Freedom_Is_Not_Free

I don’t buy into the abiotic theory at all, when they start finding oil in areas that are not ancient sea basins then they’ll get my attention.


18 posted on 07/29/2012 2:07:46 AM PDT by Dusty Road
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To: Dusty Road

Most people don’t believe in the abiotic theory of oil. My problem is that the biogenic theory leaves too much unexplained.

If oil is biogenic, how does oil get 5 miles deep in the earth’s crust? Oil is lighter than water. Water displaces oil. How does this light fluid then get drawn 5 miles deep into the earth’s crust to be found.

Another question is, why does Saturn’s moon, Titan, have methane and ethane? Cosmic dinosaurs? Ancient dinosaurs on Titan now extinct?

Why is their Methane on Mars?

These are the kinds of questions I need answered by people like you who swear by the biogenic theory of oil formation, so I can also believe it.

Can you answer how light oil can be drawn down through 5 miles of soil, rock and shale? Can you answer how methane and ethane formed on Titan without the presence of plants and animals?


19 posted on 07/29/2012 2:27:57 AM PDT by Freedom_Is_Not_Free (REPEAL OBAMACARE. Nothing else matters.)
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To: Sark

Environmentalists lie.

They oppose any energy source that is not gov’t controlled.

That is why they supported wind power until it started approaching feasibility from a cost/benefit analysis and attracted private investment.

So, now environmentalists oppose wind power because the turbines are an “eyesore”. They didn’t know they were an eyesore before supporting it?

PS: Solar has the same issue with being an “eyesore” and incredible glare problems (search “solar panel glare”) but it is not being promoted by the private sector yet.

Environmentalists supported natural gas as a clean alternative until we found it in abundance under our feet in this country where it will employ hundreds of thousands of Americans.

So, now environmentalists oppose natural gas because the extraction process is dangerous to our drinking water even though it takes place thousands of feet below fresh water aquifers. But we pump raw sewage only a feet feet below the surface (septic systems) into the ground and environmentalists see no issue there.

The bottom line is that environmentalists only want gov’t control and do not want private companies to make profits from energy.

They see energy like healthcare -— a right that should be free.


20 posted on 07/29/2012 3:11:49 AM PDT by Erik Latranyi (When religions have to beg the gov't for a waiver, we are already under socialism.)
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To: Waywardson
Re post 4: Exactly!
21 posted on 07/29/2012 4:49:18 AM PDT by Former Proud Canadian (Obamanomics-We don't need your stinking tar sands oil, we'll just grow algae.)
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To: Sark

I was supposed to be worried about that? Who knew?

Anyway, we will all be dead from global warming long before we run out of oil. /sarc


22 posted on 07/29/2012 5:18:13 AM PDT by HangThemHigh (Entropy's not what it used to be.)
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To: Freedom_Is_Not_Free

First the oil didn’t migrate down it was layed there millions of years ago along with water, one of the biggest problems we face in the oilfields now is what to do with all the salt water that comes up with the oil. Our tank battery’s are designed with seperators and water knockouts and heater treaters just to remove the oil.
Our oceans are a soup of living organisms and as they die the go to the bottom where over millions of years are layed down in deposits, that process is ongoing today and will continue as long as we have water on earth.
Nobody knows for sure how many times the sea has risen and fallen over the life time of the earth but every time it has done this it has left parts the ocean floor exposed. Where I am in West TX we’re 2300 ft above sea level, at one time we were 2000 ft below it. That was a time when 3/4 ths of the US was under water. Now from here I’m going to just use heating and cooling, it’s with these process’s that once the earth started to heat up again that the water would run back into the ocean covering the floor with large deposits of sediment. This process also helps to explain why we find oil at various depths and layer thickness’s. Put here we’re find oil as shallow as 1500 ft all the way down to 9000 ft, in other area’s that varies. In California and a few other area’s you with find oil at the surface, such as the tar pits.
The surface temperatures of Titan are around minus 300 degree’s Fahrenheit cold enough to turn methane back into a liquid, where it rains upon the surface of Titan daily more like a drizzle and collecting on the surface and forming landscapes similar to running and are standing water.

Now where does that methane come from? Some say it comes from within others say it accumaltes in it’s atmosphere and falls to the surface as rain. I’m of the belief that it accumulates as it hits the cold temps of Titan and falls to the surface.

I’m not done here but the wife and I are going fishing on the ranch, I’ll check back in later.


23 posted on 07/29/2012 5:46:25 AM PDT by Dusty Road
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To: Dusty Road

Let me add that should it proven that the methane comes from Titan then it also proves that organic life at one time flourished there.


24 posted on 07/29/2012 5:48:53 AM PDT by Dusty Road
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To: Dusty Road

http://www.space.com/4968-titan-oil-earth.html

How many dinosaurs where there on this moon and when did they live there?

“fossil” fuel is a total LIE.


25 posted on 07/29/2012 10:18:19 AM PDT by Waywardson (If you fear Obama..... vote for Romney. If you fear God... DON'T !)
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To: Dusty Road
Let me add that should it proven that the methane comes from Titan then it also proves that organic life at one time flourished there.

OK, if you are pushing dead Dinos on the moon theory, I need to let it be. You can't prove it and it is too convenient for serious discussions.

Never the less, there is NO SUCH THING as "Peak Oil". The world, the universe has more than humans can ever use.

26 posted on 07/29/2012 10:34:45 AM PDT by Waywardson (If you fear Obama..... vote for Romney. If you fear God... DON'T !)
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To: Does so
Both oil and coal are fossil fuels: you can actually see extinct fossil ferns in coal. Oil...not so much!

Oil drawn from Earth deposits contains tiny—and extinct—plants and animals.

Look I can piss in a bottle of Jack too, but that doesn't make it alcohol.

27 posted on 07/29/2012 10:36:02 AM PDT by Waywardson (If you fear Obama..... vote for Romney. If you fear God... DON'T !)
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To: Freedom_Is_Not_Free; Dusty Road
The abiotic theory is not new. The Russians have been teaching it for generations.

Hydrogen is the most common element in the universe. That is what stars are primarily made from. The nuclear fusion that takes place in stars produces carbon as a direct product. When a star explodes, carbon, hydrogen and many other elements are thrown back into space.

As the next generation of stars are formed, along with the planets that first generation stars would have lacked, the hydrogen and carbon is trapped in the planet's core.

A molten core planet such as ours, can and does supply the heat and pressure to build hydrocarbon chains which in gaseous form filter up through the crust and cool into resulting oil and natural gas deposits.

This easily explains why oil is being found in layers devoid of microfossiels and oil fields previously thought to be pumped dry are being refilled. It also explains why there are hydrocarbons on lifeless planets and moons.

28 posted on 07/29/2012 1:47:27 PM PDT by El Laton Caliente (NRA Life Member & www.Gunsnet.net Moderator)
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To: Dusty Road
Could not the oil have just as easily migrated INTO layers with fossils?

The coker units in refineries use the release of pressure (and the resulting rapid loss of heat) to crack carbon atoms out of heavy hydrocarbon chains. Would this not also allow coal to be deposited in layers with fossils?

The areas in which sediment deposits migrate down in the crust are necessarily the porous areas of the crust. That explains why more oil and coal are found there if it migrates from the core.

29 posted on 07/29/2012 2:39:09 PM PDT by El Laton Caliente (NRA Life Member & www.Gunsnet.net Moderator)
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To: Waywardson

I’m sorry but you should have let it go long before your first post on this sunject.


30 posted on 07/29/2012 2:50:22 PM PDT by Dusty Road
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To: El Laton Caliente

This easily explains why oil is being found in layers devoid of microfossiels and oil fields previously thought to be pumped dry are being refilled. It also explains why there are hydrocarbons on lifeless planets and moons.


I’d love to see a sample that didn’t contain microfossils that would be a first for me and I’ve been at it for about 40 years. In that same 40 years I’ve yet to see a field go dry, production may fall to the point that it’s no longer profitable to pump but never dry. I’ve got some wells that used to flow 30 to 40 barrels a day, now I have them on pressure controls that only allow them to open when the pressure gets above 750 psi and shuts off at 200 psi. It may take as long as 4 days before it gets back to 750 psi. Their production id now closer to 3 barrels a day and thats only on the days they open.


31 posted on 07/29/2012 3:08:58 PM PDT by Dusty Road
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To: Waywardson

Did you even read the link you provided?

From your link.

(”Titan is just covered in carbon-bearing material — it’s a giant factory of organic chemicals,” said Ralph Lorenz, a Cassini radar team member from the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory. “This vast carbon inventory is an important window into the geology and climate history of Titan.” )


32 posted on 07/29/2012 3:15:31 PM PDT by Dusty Road
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To: El Laton Caliente
The nuclear fusion that takes place in stars produces carbon as a direct product.

You might want to review your physics on that one.

33 posted on 07/30/2012 6:24:13 AM PDT by DuncanWaring (The Lord uses the good ones; the bad ones use the Lord.)
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To: DuncanWaring

Medium-sized stars (like our Sun): Late in their lives, when the hydrogen becomes depleted, stars like our Sun can convert helium into oxygen and carbon.

Massive stars (greater than five times the mass of the Sun): When their hydrogen becomes depleted, high mass stars convert helium atoms into carbon and oxygen, followed by the fusion of carbon and oxygen into neon, sodium, magnesium, sulfur and silicon. Later reactions transform these elements into calcium, iron, nickel, chromium, copper and others. When these old, large stars with depleted cores supernova, they create heavy elements (all the natural elements heavier than iron) and spew them into space, forming the basis for life.

http://www.enchantedlearning.com/subjects/astronomy/stars/fusion.shtml


34 posted on 07/30/2012 8:34:02 AM PDT by El Laton Caliente (NRA Life Member & www.Gunsnet.net Moderator)
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To: Dusty Road

You had some good points in your post 23 until you theorized carbon based life on Saturn’s moon.

Also, BP’s Tiber well is 35,000 feet deep, not including the 4000 feet of water. Are you going to tell me that oil was placed by dying dinosaurs and was covered with 35,000 feet of sediment? Really?

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/2009/09/03/20090903biz-gulfoil0903.html


35 posted on 07/30/2012 10:26:21 PM PDT by Freedom_Is_Not_Free (REPEAL OBAMACARE. Nothing else matters.)
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To: El Laton Caliente

Right, I’m with you. I was brainwashed to believe all oil came from dead dinosaurs and plants. To me the jury is still out, but I am leaning heavily toward concluding that some or much of our oil is from compressed carbon in the earths mantle or crust. I don’t know...


36 posted on 07/30/2012 10:29:52 PM PDT by Freedom_Is_Not_Free (REPEAL OBAMACARE. Nothing else matters.)
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To: Freedom_Is_Not_Free

If you don’t like my suggestion I’m sorry but the possibility is still there, we don’t know what Titan looked like a billions if not hundreds of billions of years ago.
As far as the BP well absolutely! Those deposits were layed down a long time ago, just like anywhere else that oil is found. Contraction, expansion and tectonic plate movement do strange things to the surface of this old planet, no telling what it looked like billions of years ago. Oh and as far as the dinosaur thing, you may have noticed that I’ve never said that, that would be rather silly.


37 posted on 07/31/2012 3:46:17 AM PDT by Dusty Road
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To: Freedom_Is_Not_Free

01 January 2009 Early Earth ‘was covered in water’

http://www.earthdive.com/site/news/newsdetail.asp?changedate=true&changeyear=2009&id=2821


38 posted on 07/31/2012 5:03:17 AM PDT by Dusty Road
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