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Help me understand why Mitt is slipping in Rasmussen Polls (Vanity)
Me

Posted on 08/19/2012 7:56:32 AM PDT by AdamBomb

One would think that after a full week of Ryan and Romney campaigning strong that they would have maintained a lead in the Rasmussen poll.

For the life of me I do not understand how the kenyan can all of a sudden be up 2 points for 3 days in a row.

Any thoughts?


TOPICS: Chit/Chat
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; cuzheisaliberal; homosexualagenda; kenyanisgone; proabortion; rasmussen; romney; romneycare; youdidntbuildthat
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1 posted on 08/19/2012 7:56:41 AM PDT by AdamBomb
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To: AdamBomb

Ryan isn’t at the top of the ticket.


2 posted on 08/19/2012 7:59:02 AM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: AdamBomb

I was just wondering the same thing.
How do the voters flip flop in one week?


3 posted on 08/19/2012 7:59:38 AM PDT by CaptainK (...please make it stop. Shake a can of pennies at it.)
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To: AdamBomb

because we’re talking about medicare and tax returns instead of unemployment and inflation?


4 posted on 08/19/2012 7:59:54 AM PDT by RC one
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To: AdamBomb

Don’t lose faith by looking at the polls. Polls are propaganda to make you question. Because they might ‘appear’ right at times, doesn’t make them right all the time. They need you to keep believing in them!


5 posted on 08/19/2012 8:00:42 AM PDT by presently no screen name
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To: AdamBomb

Maybe it`s because of the disrespect he is showing Gov Sarah Palin? That`s the problem for yours truly.

Hey, pollsters all have an agenda, doesn’t matter which one you pick. Gallup had Romney up 2 yesterday.

Personally I do not believe in the “science” of polling


6 posted on 08/19/2012 8:00:59 AM PDT by Friendofgeorge (SARAH PALIN 2012 OR BUST)
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To: CaptainK

They don’t, statistical noise. Pay attention to the long term trends.


7 posted on 08/19/2012 8:01:25 AM PDT by traderrob6
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To: CaptainK

what is weird is the exact opposite happened with the Gallup poll. kenyan was up but now Mitt is up 2


8 posted on 08/19/2012 8:01:25 AM PDT by AdamBomb
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To: AdamBomb

The MSM has been bashing Ryan all week. The fact that they’re only down a couple points is a good sign.


9 posted on 08/19/2012 8:01:45 AM PDT by smokingfrog ( sleep with one eye open (<o> ---)
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To: AdamBomb

Has Ras always had Obama +10 among ‘unaffiliated’ voters?


10 posted on 08/19/2012 8:01:52 AM PDT by tatown ( FUMD, FUAC, and FUGB)
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To: AdamBomb

Romney is not playing well with voters to the right of his liberal base.


11 posted on 08/19/2012 8:01:52 AM PDT by Tau Food (Tom Hoefling for President - 2012)
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To: AdamBomb

Obama has managed to make this election a referendum on Mitt Romney. If someone were to land here from another planet, turned on the TV and listened to Obama speak, it could easily be assumed that Obama (and not Romney) is the incumbent.


12 posted on 08/19/2012 8:03:16 AM PDT by tsowellfan (Voting for Obama/Biden is like purposely swallowing two tapeworms)
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To: AdamBomb

I was aware of the, which made me even more confused.


13 posted on 08/19/2012 8:05:50 AM PDT by CaptainK (...please make it stop. Shake a can of pennies at it.)
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To: tsowellfan

Its simple folks. They’re setting Mitt up to get a big bounce after the convention.

Numbers drop a little in the weeks before, then they increase immediately afterward.


14 posted on 08/19/2012 8:05:50 AM PDT by o2bfree
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To: AdamBomb
There's no real enthusiasm for romney. Only an enthusiasm to remove obama.

That doesn't result in poll number swings, but could very well lead to a blowout all the same as people reject another 4 years of the disaster obama has implemented as policy.

15 posted on 08/19/2012 8:06:14 AM PDT by Caipirabob (I say we take off and Newt the site from orbit. It's the only way to be sure...)
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To: AdamBomb

The change is so slight that it is not statistically significant. In other words there is random variability in who gets asked their voting intentions, and for a poll to register a change this small means that it’s likely the public mood has not changed.


16 posted on 08/19/2012 8:06:23 AM PDT by babble-on
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To: RC one

“because we’re talking about medicare and tax returns instead of unemployment and inflation?”

We have a winner. The tax return issue was almost dead and the idiotic Romney campaign breathed life back into it with his public 13% assertion.


17 posted on 08/19/2012 8:08:46 AM PDT by LaserJock
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To: AdamBomb

The polls are out there simply to make news for the MSM. The pundits and newsreaders do little else then ask questions proposed to fill time like you have.


18 posted on 08/19/2012 8:09:16 AM PDT by UB355 (Slower traffic keep right)
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To: smokingfrog
The MSM has been bashing Ryan all week.

The MSM bashes republicans all year, everyday but we (also thanks to Sarah Palin) won a victory in 2010.

How is it that the Romney campaign and his supporters have managed to allow this to be a referendum on him and Onama appears to be the outsider and incumbent?

I blame it more on the Romney supporters and pundits than I do Romney himself (although the buck ultimately stops at Romney)

Too much time spent on MEDICARE by people lie Hannity and other AM talkers.

It's the economy that's at issue. And Obama is who should be judged. It's his economy, not the republican's and not Mitt's.

19 posted on 08/19/2012 8:09:39 AM PDT by tsowellfan (Voting for Obama/Biden is like purposely swallowing two tapeworms)
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To: AdamBomb

I think the Democrats are hitting Ryan hard on the Medicare and scaring people and Romney’s refusal to release his tax papers are probably not making the independents happy. The real conservatives never like Mitt to begin with. A lot of time to election day. Anything can happen. The convention would be a great time to put a real conservative on the ticket with Ryan as the VP...we would win for sure then.


20 posted on 08/19/2012 8:10:57 AM PDT by napscoordinator (Attention Republican National Convention voters....Santorum/Bachmann 2012! Dump liberal Romney NOW!)
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To: AdamBomb
"..why?"
...oversampling of 'Rats in the poll.

21 posted on 08/19/2012 8:12:07 AM PDT by skinkinthegrass (WA DC E$tabli$hment; DNC/RNC/Unionists...Brazilian saying: "$@me Old $hit; w/ different flie$" :^)
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To: AdamBomb

Its august and people are on vacation not answering their phones.


22 posted on 08/19/2012 8:12:24 AM PDT by Walkingfeather
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To: AdamBomb

The most telling statistic is that Zero still only scores in the mid 40’s. As the incumbent, if the election were held today, he would probably score not much higher than that. In other words, the current Rasmussen poll is not worrisome at this time.


23 posted on 08/19/2012 8:12:32 AM PDT by Sam Clements
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To: babble-on

The change is so slight that it is not statistically significant.

True but the scary thing is the that Ryan never really got a good bounce that most VP’s get when announced. That COULD be a problem.


24 posted on 08/19/2012 8:13:38 AM PDT by napscoordinator (Attention Republican National Convention voters....Santorum/Bachmann 2012! Dump liberal Romney NOW!)
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To: AdamBomb
The bounce is going to happen after the Republican National Convention--especially people now increasingly know that Obama is trying to deliberately bring the USA to second-rate status.

And don't forget that the Romney/Ryan team has yet to officially enunciate their income tax policy. I would not be surprised that they would seriously look at a highly-simplified tax code akin to what Steve Forbes proposed in 1996--a proposal that could fundamentally change the economy of the USA for the better thanks to way lower yearly compliance costs and way more encouragement of savings and capital investment in the USA.

25 posted on 08/19/2012 8:13:49 AM PDT by RayChuang88 (FairTax: America's economic cure)
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To: tsowellfan
Let us talk about unemployment numbers !


26 posted on 08/19/2012 8:14:41 AM PDT by timestax (Why not drug tests for the President AND all White Hut staff ? ? ?)
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To: AdamBomb

It’s been the trend that Obama does better on the weekends and once Monday rolls around Romney does better - hard to describe why. The beset polls I see are crowd attendance and RnR are winning that poll BIG.


27 posted on 08/19/2012 8:16:27 AM PDT by LRoggy (Peter's Son's Business)
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To: tsowellfan; All

Polls are taken to tell you how you should vote and to give the ruling efete talking heads something to act expert about.

Ravenstar


28 posted on 08/19/2012 8:16:44 AM PDT by Ravenstar (Reinstitute the Constitution as the Ultimate Law of the Land --Cain 2012)
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To: cripplecreek
.

Defeat Barack Obama ...

"How" ?

DUMP MYTH ROMNEY ... the Celestial God-Child from Planet Kolob in the Constellation Cancer ...



Myth Romney CANNOT-CANNOT-CANNOT defeat Obama.

Period.



.
29 posted on 08/19/2012 8:17:33 AM PDT by Patton@Bastogne (Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin will DEFEAT the Obama-Romney Socialist Gay-Marriage Axis of Evil)
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To: o2bfree
Its simple folks. They’re setting Mitt up to get a big bounce after the convention.

Yeah and Obama's "intentionally limiting the audiences at the rallies".

I don't buy it.The higher the number now the higher it will be during that "bounce" you claim Romney's trying to suppress until after the convention.

My advice to the RomneyBots is: You had better get his numbers up as high as possible now. One of the October surprises is going to be "Romney's Flip Flips". They have the videos all ready to go. (Romney vs Kennedy debates)

30 posted on 08/19/2012 8:17:58 AM PDT by tsowellfan (Voting for Obama/Biden is like purposely swallowing two tapeworms)
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To: napscoordinator

The most effective argument Mittens can make on the tax return crap, he’s chosen to avoid.
He says he’s not releasing any more returns. Fine. But, at least throw it back in 0bama’s face. It should be: “I’m not releasing any more tax returns, much like Barak 0bama is not releasing any of his birth, education, college, or selective service records.”

But, then...we are talking about Mittens...


31 posted on 08/19/2012 8:18:19 AM PDT by PubliusMM (RKBA; a matter of fact, not opinion. 01-20-2013: Change we can look forward to.)
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To: Caipirabob

That’s what I notice here in my corner of Texas. The desire to remove Obama is at a fever-pitch intensity. But by the same token, no one I encounter remotely likes or trusts Romney. Makes for a peculiar dichotomy.


32 posted on 08/19/2012 8:20:36 AM PDT by greene66
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To: PubliusMM
Fine. But, at least throw it back in 0bama’s face. It should be: “I’m not releasing any more tax returns, much like Barak 0bama is not releasing any of his birth, education, college, or selective service records.”

Exactly! Get it over already. Make a deal with Obama. Tell him to unseal all of his records and you will release the tax returns - but not until. End of story.

Obama's acting as if he is the Washington outsider, the Republicans have the majority in both Houses and Romney is the one running for re-election.

That's what I call running a terrible campaign.

Mark Levin's orange juice can would have been beating Obama in the polls by now given the economic situatation.

33 posted on 08/19/2012 8:25:17 AM PDT by tsowellfan (Voting for Obama/Biden is like purposely swallowing two tapeworms)
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To: tsowellfan
it could easily be assumed that Obama (and not Romney) is the incumbent.

That's because Obama IS the incumbent, and not Romney.

34 posted on 08/19/2012 8:26:23 AM PDT by Yashcheritsiy (Science puts you on the moon, atheism puts you in the gulag)
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To: AdamBomb

This has me scratching my head, too. On Monday of last week... two days after bring Ryan on board, Romney jumped to +4. Now he`s -2 and at his lowest level of support (43%) since March.

Are the sheeple getting worried the gub`mint gravy train might be lightening the load?

America has no excuses this time. Consider Nov. 6 to be an IQ test.


35 posted on 08/19/2012 8:28:08 AM PDT by ScottinVA (If Obama is reelected, America will deserve every mockery that follows.)
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To: AdamBomb

Lies...damned lies...statistics...polls.


36 posted on 08/19/2012 8:30:31 AM PDT by RightOnline (I am Andrew Breitbart!)
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To: Yashcheritsiy
That's because Obama IS the incumbent, and not Romney.

Well, I meant it the other way around. Romney should not be on the defensive as if he's trying to justify this recession of his. It's Obama's recession. He and his party own it.

37 posted on 08/19/2012 8:30:39 AM PDT by tsowellfan (Voting for Obama/Biden is like purposely swallowing two tapeworms)
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To: ScottinVA
America has no excuses this time. Consider Nov. 6 to be an IQ test.

If America chooses Obama, the buck stops at Romney and the RINOs that helped nominate him.

If America votes against Romney, it means he ran a terrible campaign.

38 posted on 08/19/2012 8:33:41 AM PDT by tsowellfan (Voting for Obama/Biden is like purposely swallowing two tapeworms)
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To: ScottinVA

The drop for Mitt is more surprising to me than the slight bump Obama is seeing. He’s still low for an incumbent and rose to his high watermark for the summer. Mitt dropped below his low watermark if he hit 43%. There is something different. It will be interesting to see if this trend stays during the week.

It may be statistical noise...some areas of the country are going back to school, some are in vacation time. I also wonder if there was a change in the methodology. Doesn’t seem like anything that occurred this week would have impacted the race this week.


39 posted on 08/19/2012 8:36:14 AM PDT by ilgipper
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To: greene66

Yep that is true. Nobody likes Romney or Obama around here.


40 posted on 08/19/2012 8:37:11 AM PDT by GeronL (The Right to Life came before the Right to Pursue Happiness)
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To: Tau Food
.

Romney is not playing well with voters to the right of his liberal base.


A statement of "genius" ...

and exactly why Obama beats Romney ... in a landslide ...



DUMP MYTH ROMNEY to defeat Barrack Obama !!!



.
41 posted on 08/19/2012 8:38:03 AM PDT by Patton@Bastogne (Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin will DEFEAT the Obama-Romney Socialist Gay-Marriage Axis of Evil)
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To: tsowellfan

I know, I was just being a tedious jerk.


42 posted on 08/19/2012 8:41:24 AM PDT by Yashcheritsiy (Science puts you on the moon, atheism puts you in the gulag)
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To: cripplecreek
Voters aren't flipflopping ~ in a RACE TO THE BOTTOM you see a ratchet effect as various small factions in one party drop out of interest in their old candidate, while nothing happens to the other party. Next week that party will ratchet down as they lose a small faction.

Neither party has a popular candidate so you'll see this all the way to election day.

So, how do you keep ahead of this? Well, you can keep your eye on Joltin' Joe Biden ~ every time he's turned loose to embarrass somebody, or intimidate them, the Democrats lose share ~ not a lot ~ but maybe 100,000 votes. These are permanant losses too, and they do show up in the popularity ratings.

With Republicans, getting Ryan on board with a show merely reminded yet more of them of how little they like Romney. Bing Bong there goes the bounce.

Once the conventions are over we'll see the pollsters turn entirely to PROBABLE VOTERS. First, there's an initial statistical problem ~ there are a lot of people NOT PLANNING ON VOTING for president this time. Once the pollsters get a grasp on that, they'll adjust the numbers and you might even see a jump up in both major candidates, but that'll be swiftly whittled down ~ and finally, the race will be decided by only the true believers who, if you can believe it, actually think highly of Obama or Romney. These people are immune to the issues!

I expect an historically low turnout for President this time with both candidates getting fewer votes than were voted for their party counterpart last time, and actually maybe no more votes than are cast down ballot.

Usually the votes for President are greater than those for Representatives ~ this time I"m suggesting they'l be less ~ without looking I"d guess the last time that happened was back in the 1820s or something.

43 posted on 08/19/2012 8:42:14 AM PDT by muawiyah
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To: tsowellfan

The Romney campaign does not have legal access to the monies raised for the campaign until after the convention.

Obama as the incumbent President does have legal access to campaign monies raised. He has been spending his funds like a drunken sailor with non stop negative attack ads.

Since Romney has risen in the polls to a virtual statistical tie, this is great news. He has risen despite the dirtiest presidential ad campaign in modern history. His campaign is even dirtier than Lyndon Johnson’s back in the 60s.

Romney has shown that he knows how to go for blood in the primaries. He can be politically ruthless when necessary.
After the primary I think it will be, “Cry havoc and let slip the dogs of political warfare.” Obama has already done this.


44 posted on 08/19/2012 8:42:58 AM PDT by cpdiii (Deckhand, Roughneck, Mud Man, Geologist, Pilot, Pharmacist. THE CONSTITUTION IS WORTH DYING FOR!)
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To: tsowellfan

Good point. And the folks mostly still get their news from the MSM not alternative Fox or Talk Radio. The takers simply now are outvoting the makers. And stop the baloney about Mitt being the one who is losing the votes. Actually, the Right has been very strong in its support . The problem is the Blue states large electoral votes outnumber the small red states. Period. Mitt needs to win back some of the Bama Red states of 2008. If he does, he will squeak through. If not, our Republic is done. He needs Ohio, Pa. NV, NM IN MI and some combo of WVA, MN and NH.


45 posted on 08/19/2012 8:44:36 AM PDT by phillyfanatic
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To: Patton@Bastogne
Yes, Romney can defeat Obama.

You want Obama to win, so your stubborn “prediction” becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

46 posted on 08/19/2012 8:44:44 AM PDT by Kansas58
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To: LRoggy
The Mittbots are drawing crows smaller than Sarah Palin in the same places.

This is series and hugh ~ probably.

47 posted on 08/19/2012 8:46:42 AM PDT by muawiyah
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To: AdamBomb

Ryan and Romney are so different, it’s difficult to take them seriously as a team (also Romney’s “using” of Ryan is becoming all too obvious). A shake-up at the convention would be good. I would also like to hear Ryan issue more support for the unborn and their mothers, however, I realize he’s not “in control” of his speak. But if they are included (there are 50+ million innocents; big numbers!), Our Father may help this election progress in a better way. Economy is important, but it means nothing without life.


48 posted on 08/19/2012 8:46:42 AM PDT by mlizzy (And if we accept that a mother can kill even her own child, how can we tell others not to kill? --MT)
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To: phillyfanatic

He will definitely get WV - no doubt about it.


49 posted on 08/19/2012 8:51:16 AM PDT by Scotswife
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To: AdamBomb

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/2012/07/29/why_romney039s_numbers_aren039t_dropping_285990.html

Why Romney numbers aren’t dropping.


50 posted on 08/19/2012 8:56:05 AM PDT by presently no screen name
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