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Shock poll: Obama could lose Illinois
Daily Caller ^ | August 20, 2012 | Alexis Levinson

Posted on 08/20/2012 5:18:02 AM PDT by Zakeet

President Barack Obama could lose his home state of Illinois in November, a new poll shows.

A poll conducted by Illinois-based pollster and political strategist Michael McKeon found Obama leading Republican Mitt Romney by 49 percent to 37 percent in Cook County, the home of Chicago. That puts him ahead by a far thinner margin than expected in a county he should be winning handsomely.

Cook is the most Democratic leaning county in the state. It is also the most populous.

Those numbers do not bode well for the president.

“He has to come out of Cook County with a big lead or he’s gonna have problems downstate,” explained McKeon, who said that based on the numbers he had seen, Obama polled only in the forties in downstate Illinois.

“It’s not like his policies are very popular downstate,” McKeon said. “He’s viewed as more part of Chicago than he is part of Illinois.”

According to the poll, which surveyed 629 registered voters last week, Obama’s problems are not in Chicago proper, but in suburban Cook County.

In the city of Chicago itself, he retains a 60-29 lead over Romney. But the Republican challenger leads 45-38 in the surrounding areas. Across the county as a whole, Romney leads 43-31 among independent voters, a crucial voting bloc. Romney also holds a 44-38 lead among male voters, and a 53-40 lead among white voters.

(Excerpt) Read more at dailycaller.com ...


TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: 2012; 2012election; 2012polls; bluestates; cookcounty; democrats; elections; il2012; illinois; obama; obamaillinois; obamaillinois2012; onetermobama; poll
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Before you get too encouraged, you Freepers need know that the graveyards and prisons are full of voters who weren't included in this poll!

1 posted on 08/20/2012 5:18:06 AM PDT by Zakeet
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To: Zakeet
Before you get too encouraged, you Freepers need know that the graveyards and prisons are full of voters who weren't included in this poll!

You let the air out of what I was going to say.
2 posted on 08/20/2012 5:22:31 AM PDT by wolfpat (Not to know what has been transacted in former times is to be always a child. -- Cicero)
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To: Zakeet

This is pretty “pie in the sky” news. Ain’t gonna happen. My home state of Illinois, the corruption capital of the US, will vote for Obama. No questions.


3 posted on 08/20/2012 5:23:44 AM PDT by Lawgvr1955 (You can never have too much cowbell !!)
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To: Zakeet

Yeah, but this is also registered voters, not likely. Add two more points to Romney.


4 posted on 08/20/2012 5:24:18 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Lawgvr1955

Agreed. No way Illinois goes Republican this year. A tighter race in solid blue states is a good sign, though. It means blue-leaning swing states are definitely in play.


5 posted on 08/20/2012 5:25:57 AM PDT by ilgipper
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To: Lawgvr1955

Chicago: Stealing Elections Since 1960


6 posted on 08/20/2012 5:27:29 AM PDT by txrefugee
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To: GOPJ; HamiltonJay; SoFloFreeper; GOPsterinMA; SunkenCiv; unkus

ping


7 posted on 08/20/2012 5:28:24 AM PDT by Perdogg (Mutts for Mitt all agree - Better in the crate than on the plate)
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To: Zakeet
Cook is the most Democratic leaning county in the state.

There's nothing "Democratic" about RATs.

It is also the most populous.

It is also the most corrupt.

8 posted on 08/20/2012 5:28:37 AM PDT by ROCKLOBSTER (Celebrate Republicans Freed the Slaves Month.)
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To: Zakeet

The lead in the city would be greater except in the last four years the constituents have killed each other off.


9 posted on 08/20/2012 5:30:25 AM PDT by bert ((K.E. N.P. N.C. +12 ..... Present failure and impending death yield irrational action))
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To: Zakeet
I don't know how many will actually vote for Obama in Cook County. I do know that they will count the votes, and then keep counting them until Obama gets enough votes to win the state.

Things haven't changed much since 1960.

10 posted on 08/20/2012 5:31:08 AM PDT by Former Proud Canadian (Obamanomics-We don't need your stinking tar sands oil, we'll just grow algae.)
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To: Zakeet

Well, they certainly aren’t ALL dumb in Illinois.


11 posted on 08/20/2012 5:31:27 AM PDT by Ann Archy ( ABORTION...the HUMAN Sacrifice to the god of Convenience.)
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To: Lawgvr1955

and even if he doesn’t get the majority of votes there, he will win Illinois by a landslide.


12 posted on 08/20/2012 5:31:50 AM PDT by a real Sheila (RYAN/romney 2012)
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To: Zakeet

He has to come out of Cook County with a big lead or he’s gonna have problems downstate


You got that right. We So. Ill. folks no likey da Lightbringer.


13 posted on 08/20/2012 5:32:14 AM PDT by 98ZJ USMC
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To: Lawgvr1955

Chicago is AWASH in MURDERS.......this could change some minds.


14 posted on 08/20/2012 5:32:34 AM PDT by Ann Archy ( ABORTION...the HUMAN Sacrifice to the god of Convenience.)
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To: Zakeet

I don’t understand. What does Kenya have to do with Illinois?


15 posted on 08/20/2012 5:32:46 AM PDT by Lee'sGhost (Johnny Rico picked the wrong girl!)
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To: txrefugee

I worked for Nixon-Lodge in ‘59-60 in Chicago’s NW Suburbs, so I know about a stolen election, believe me...


16 posted on 08/20/2012 5:36:06 AM PDT by carriage_hill (Harry Reid [PERVERT-NV] has Vickie-the-goat in lingerie & stiletto heels, tied-up in his office.)
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To: Zakeet

Didn’t Mondale lose his home state of Minnesota in1984, vs. Reagan redux?

This is not so far fetched.


17 posted on 08/20/2012 5:38:21 AM PDT by cicero2k
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To: Zakeet; LS; Impy; BillyBoy; Clintonfatigued; AuH2ORepublican; Skulllspitter; Dr. Sivana; ...

Registered voter polls are worthless. However, if Willard was truly polling at 37% in Cook County, that is 15% higher than McCain’s paltry 22% showing in ‘08. If that is the case statewide, using the ‘08 returns, that adds up to a 50-47% Willard statewide victory. If he carries IL, the race is over. Still, I don’t think it’s likely (even Carter carried Georgia in 1980 handily (56-41%) despite his abysmal national showing).


18 posted on 08/20/2012 5:38:21 AM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (If you like lying Socialist dirtbags, you'll love Slick Willard)
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To: Zakeet

I predict Obama will get 120% of the Cook county vote!


19 posted on 08/20/2012 5:38:47 AM PDT by Dr. Ursus
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To: cicero2k

No, Mondale carried Minnesota. MN hasn’t voted GOP for President since 1972.


20 posted on 08/20/2012 5:40:58 AM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (If you like lying Socialist dirtbags, you'll love Slick Willard)
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To: cicero2k
No, he didn't.


1984

We're looking more at a 1980 parallel here...


21 posted on 08/20/2012 5:41:30 AM PDT by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter knows whom he's working fors)
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To: Zakeet

The cemetaries have been voting in Illinois for years, and they all vote Democrat. They can’t let CA fall off the cliff all alone.

Just the same, it’s nice to see SOME of them are waking up.


22 posted on 08/20/2012 5:41:41 AM PDT by I still care (I miss my friends, bagels, and the NYC skyline - but not the taxes. I love the South.)
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To: Lawgvr1955

Agreed. But the thinner-than-expected margin may force Obama to spend some time and money in IL that would have been better spent elsewhere, like Ohio or Florida.


23 posted on 08/20/2012 5:43:04 AM PDT by jboot (This isn't your father's America. Stay safe and keep your powder dry.)
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To: Zakeet

"Good evening we are from The DNC are you registed to vote?"
24 posted on 08/20/2012 5:43:28 AM PDT by Kartographer ("We mutually pledge to each other our lives, our fortunes and our sacred honor.")
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To: LS

Yeah, but this is also registered voters, not likely. Add two more points to Romney.

Voting machines don’t register, but they vote big time in hicongo.


25 posted on 08/20/2012 5:44:39 AM PDT by chainsaw ("Two ways to conquer and enslave a nation. One is by the sword. The other is by debt.")
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To: I still care

I saw something interesting this morning in the IBD.
The column described California as two states with the dichotomy equal to going from Alabama in the rural areas to Massachusetts along the coast.
Perhaps it’s time to split that badboy up.


26 posted on 08/20/2012 5:45:19 AM PDT by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter knows whom he's working fors)
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To: txrefugee

Cook County should be its own state.


27 posted on 08/20/2012 5:45:19 AM PDT by AD from SpringBay (We deserve the government we allow.)
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To: Zakeet

Chicago Values = Crook County.


28 posted on 08/20/2012 5:48:39 AM PDT by JPG (Make it happen.)
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To: cicero2k

“Didn’t Mondale lose his home state of Minnesota in1984, vs. Reagan redux? This is not so far fetched.”

Yup! And remember, in 2000, Gore lost TN to Bush.

As for Obama. First off, he’s a Chicago transplant. None of his relatives are buried in that town. Secondly, I have family both in Cook County, Joliet and Springfield. Some are D’s,some are R’s...though not a one of them considers him a ‘local’.

If Chicago turnout is low (blacks and ethnic unionized whites)...anything is possible. I’d let Ryan do the talking.


29 posted on 08/20/2012 5:49:03 AM PDT by mkboyce
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To: carriage_hill

I worked for Nixon-Lodge in ‘59-60 in Chicago’s NW Suburbs, so I know about a stolen election, believe me...

Then you know all about how Kennedy won the presidency!


30 posted on 08/20/2012 5:49:56 AM PDT by chainsaw ("Two ways to conquer and enslave a nation. One is by the sword. The other is by debt.")
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To: Zakeet
Obamao still leads in the city of Chicago, 60-29.

Still trying to figure out why such a high percentage of city folks and journalists prefer the shared misery of socialism.

31 posted on 08/20/2012 5:50:36 AM PDT by alrea (Massive government commitments and debt is how Socialists confiscate now.)
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To: Ann Archy

There is only one problem (when it comes to voting anyways) every murder is another Obama voter... The dead are never dead in Chicago...

They come out once a year to vote. (sometimes twice)


32 posted on 08/20/2012 5:50:53 AM PDT by cableguymn
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To: cicero2k

Uhh no. Minnesota is the only state Mondale carried.


33 posted on 08/20/2012 5:51:45 AM PDT by cableguymn
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To: Zakeet
the graveyards and prisons are full of voters who weren't included in this poll

And they vote early; vote often.


34 posted on 08/20/2012 5:52:04 AM PDT by TomGuy
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To: Zakeet

I doubt this poll.My daughter lives in a high rise off the Loop in Chicago. She says Republican primary day is a breeze in her building as there is never any wait in the Republican primary voting room while the Dem room usually has lines out the door.She said she once saw a person enter the room while she was there but it turned out to be a delivery guy who lost his way.


35 posted on 08/20/2012 5:53:46 AM PDT by chuckee
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To: cicero2k
Didn’t Mondale lose his home state of Minnesota in1984, vs. Reagan redux?

And Al Gore lost Tennessee in 2000.

36 posted on 08/20/2012 5:54:27 AM PDT by Rummyfan (Iraq: it's not about Iraq anymore, it's about the USA!)
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To: Ann Archy
Chicago is AWASH in MURDERS.......this could change some minds.

The only thing that does is add numbers to the Democrat voting rolls -- 1 from prison and 1 from the graveyard.

37 posted on 08/20/2012 5:55:00 AM PDT by Uncle Chip
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To: Zakeet

He’s counting on Chicago to pull him through. They delivered for Kennedy in ‘60. They can produce votes to order: 100K fresh and hot votes coming up. Do you want fries with that?


38 posted on 08/20/2012 5:55:18 AM PDT by luvbach1 (Stop the destruction in 2012 or continue the decline)
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To: Zakeet

No way. Like CA and NY, Illinois is conquered territory and is going nowhere. The dems will never let that one get away.


39 posted on 08/20/2012 5:58:21 AM PDT by ScottinVA (If Obama is reelected, America will deserve every mockery that follows.)
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To: I still care
The cemetaries have been voting in Illinois for years, and they all vote ...rat.

This poll is very timely, given the story over the weekend regarding the ubiquitous copies from the federal govt of "expired" social security numbers. "expired" my ass! These lists will be quite handy in Illinois this year.

40 posted on 08/20/2012 5:59:34 AM PDT by C210N ("ask not what the candidate can do for you, ask what you can do for the candidate" (Breitbart, 2012))
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To: Rummyfan

My client sent me to a small town north of Carthage Tennessee. I dreaded the trip because I would pass through Carthage and endure the Gore favorite son hype. To my surprise there was none, zero nada.

Apparently Carthage Tennessee disowned Al Gore


41 posted on 08/20/2012 6:03:55 AM PDT by bert ((K.E. N.P. N.C. +12 ..... Present failure and impending death yield irrational action))
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To: MrB

The colors are backward.


42 posted on 08/20/2012 6:04:04 AM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (If you like lying Socialist dirtbags, you'll love Slick Willard)
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To: Zakeet

If dead people weren’t polled, then this poll is worthless.


43 posted on 08/20/2012 6:04:21 AM PDT by Hoodat ("As for God, His way is perfect" - Psalm 18:30)
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To: Zakeet

Tagline.


44 posted on 08/20/2012 6:04:40 AM PDT by Lonesome in Massachussets (The Democratic Party strongly supports full civil rights for necro-Americans!)
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To: MrB

In 2004, the ‘polls’ gave us President Kerry.

In 2010, the ‘polls’ showed the Dems win, after which CNN Wolfe Blitzer and others commented on the ‘shellacking’ the Dems took.

==

We cannot and should not trust polls. Any poll can be designed and manipulated to produce a desired result. Many of these current polls are doing just that.

Medicare/Mediscare will be influential in Florida and similar ‘retirement’ states, but the problem for Dems/Obama in November is going to be the ‘pocketbook’ issues — joblessness, inflation, gas prices, the overall economy.

I expect [and hope] to see another ‘shellacking’ in November and Obama barely getting the same EV numbers McCain got in 2008.


45 posted on 08/20/2012 6:05:50 AM PDT by TomGuy
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To: bert
The lead in the city would be greater except in the last four years the constituents have killed each other off.

Do you really believe that getting killed off is going to prevent those people from voting in Chicago?

46 posted on 08/20/2012 6:06:52 AM PDT by Hoodat ("As for God, His way is perfect" - Psalm 18:30)
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To: MrB

I think the dichotomy list is going to grow.

North and South Dakota have the east and west that are at odds with one another politically.

In South Dakota, East river is ag and big city democrats. West River is conservative except for Indian Reservations.

Western North Dakota is energy, and Eastern ND wants to control the money in Western ND.


47 posted on 08/20/2012 6:07:35 AM PDT by wita
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To: chainsaw
Oh yeah.


48 posted on 08/20/2012 6:07:47 AM PDT by carriage_hill (Harry Reid [PERVERT-NV] has Vickie-the-goat in lingerie & stiletto heels, tied-up in his office.)
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To: bert

Smith County was one of the die-hard Dem counties in TN. It only voted twice for the GOP for President in 50 years, in the ‘72 landslide and against Zero in ‘08 (it still went for Kerry in ‘04).


49 posted on 08/20/2012 6:08:58 AM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (If you like lying Socialist dirtbags, you'll love Slick Willard)
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To: bcsco

There is still “hope”.

Ping


50 posted on 08/20/2012 6:09:10 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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