Skip to comments.Shock poll: Obama could lose Illinois
Posted on 08/20/2012 5:18:02 AM PDT by Zakeet
President Barack Obama could lose his home state of Illinois in November, a new poll shows.
A poll conducted by Illinois-based pollster and political strategist Michael McKeon found Obama leading Republican Mitt Romney by 49 percent to 37 percent in Cook County, the home of Chicago. That puts him ahead by a far thinner margin than expected in a county he should be winning handsomely.
Cook is the most Democratic leaning county in the state. It is also the most populous.
Those numbers do not bode well for the president.
He has to come out of Cook County with a big lead or hes gonna have problems downstate, explained McKeon, who said that based on the numbers he had seen, Obama polled only in the forties in downstate Illinois.
Its not like his policies are very popular downstate, McKeon said. Hes viewed as more part of Chicago than he is part of Illinois.
According to the poll, which surveyed 629 registered voters last week, Obamas problems are not in Chicago proper, but in suburban Cook County.
In the city of Chicago itself, he retains a 60-29 lead over Romney. But the Republican challenger leads 45-38 in the surrounding areas. Across the county as a whole, Romney leads 43-31 among independent voters, a crucial voting bloc. Romney also holds a 44-38 lead among male voters, and a 53-40 lead among white voters.
(Excerpt) Read more at dailycaller.com ...
My client sent me to a small town north of Carthage Tennessee. I dreaded the trip because I would pass through Carthage and endure the Gore favorite son hype. To my surprise there was none, zero nada.
Apparently Carthage Tennessee disowned Al Gore
The colors are backward.
If dead people weren’t polled, then this poll is worthless.
In 2004, the ‘polls’ gave us President Kerry.
In 2010, the ‘polls’ showed the Dems win, after which CNN Wolfe Blitzer and others commented on the ‘shellacking’ the Dems took.
We cannot and should not trust polls. Any poll can be designed and manipulated to produce a desired result. Many of these current polls are doing just that.
Medicare/Mediscare will be influential in Florida and similar ‘retirement’ states, but the problem for Dems/Obama in November is going to be the ‘pocketbook’ issues — joblessness, inflation, gas prices, the overall economy.
I expect [and hope] to see another ‘shellacking’ in November and Obama barely getting the same EV numbers McCain got in 2008.
Do you really believe that getting killed off is going to prevent those people from voting in Chicago?
I think the dichotomy list is going to grow.
North and South Dakota have the east and west that are at odds with one another politically.
In South Dakota, East river is ag and big city democrats. West River is conservative except for Indian Reservations.
Western North Dakota is energy, and Eastern ND wants to control the money in Western ND.
Smith County was one of the die-hard Dem counties in TN. It only voted twice for the GOP for President in 50 years, in the ‘72 landslide and against Zero in ‘08 (it still went for Kerry in ‘04).
There is still “hope”.
I’m pretty sure Obama will carry the cemeteries by a huge margin.
Wow, if Obama is only around 50% in Chicago, IL very well could fall. If this poll is accurate, you are going to see all sorts of other states fall.
IL and MN are the only 2 rust belt states I think Obama has a chance of holding without a major fight. I believe he has ZERO chance of winning IA, IN, WI, and OH, and that MI and PA are very likely to turn as well, best Obama can hope for in MI and PA is a squeaker win IF He fights hard for them.. They truly are in Play and if Romney wants them and is willing to fight for them, he can get them too.
IL and MN are the only rust belt states I think he has a prayer of holding by any margin. If Obama is truly polling at 50% or so in Cook County, that pretty much means, while he may manage to hold IL, that means many other states that should be blue will fall.. Nothing is safe for him. Many New England states will turn beyond NH if this polling is remotely true.
Won’t get too excited over 1 poll, but this poll basically re-affirms my statements and belief that the RUST BELT is dead to Obama. PA and MI are the battleground there, and IL and MN are the only ones remotely safe for him, no other state will remotely go for Obama this time around.
The bigger point is if 0bama is struggling in IL then he will probably lose the other great lakes states.
Interestingly, I saw an Obama ad last night here in CA. I wondered why he would even waste his money here. We don’t usually see any ads for either candidate.
Made me wonder if Obama’s internals weren’t all that great out here.
Idk if it will happen in IL but I think we have a landslide in the making.
One June 24, 2012 I said: “I believe Obama could lose any state in the nation. His level of corruption, Marxism, incompetence, lying, failure, attacks on liberty and the general damage he has done to the nation is going to bring him a huge defeat in November.”
I still believe it today.
I see many “winnowing forks” coming to the fore these days.
(Matt 3:12 His winnowing fork is in his hand, and he will clear his threshing floor, gathering his wheat into the barn and burning up the chaff with unquenchable fire. )
In 2008, Sarah Palin herself was such a winnowing fork.
Today, we have the homos and their desire for approval.
And all along, we have the “haves” and “have nots” that are used by those who seek power unto themselves through socialism.
My brother-in-law and sister-in-law visited us over the weekend. They are both ultra liberals from Chicago. They told us that they and their daughter would be voting for Romney because “Obama has been an unmitigated disaster who couldn’t run a lemonade stand”. What shocked us the most was they had good things to say about Sarah Palin.
The terribly irony is that there are about as many people in Chicago proper as the rest of Illinois. So you got to win DeKalb, LaSalle, Kendall, Grundy, Kankakee, etc. by enough margin to offset whatever diff between Chicago vs. (real) Illinois.
If OBama can’t poll 50% in Cook County, that tells you volumes! 1 it means that Il could go Red, not likely but it could, if you Obama doesn’t come out of Chicago with a large margin, it won’t overwhelm the rest of the state. Now, will IL turn red? Probably not, but if he can’t get over 50% in CHICAGO, that basically tells you OBama is TOAST.
I’ve posted for a while now that the Rust Belt I believe is DEAD to obama with the exceptions of IL and MN, I believe IA, IN, WI, OH Obama has ZERO chance to carry this time. I also believe PA and MI are the battleground here, and if Romney takes the fight to OBama in them, Romney can indeed win them as well.. the best Obama can hope for in those states is to have to spend a LOT of time and money there and at best pull out a squeaker there. Personally I believe both will go Republican, assuming Romney takes the fight to them.
I have always felt that IL and MN were lock, but if Obama is only polling around 50% in Cook, it is certainly not impossible, that the state is in play depending on how things play out. However, I am not saying it will fall, but what this indicates is OTHER states that no one is talking about today WILL. If Obama can’t get over 50% of the vote in Cook county, there are very few states that can be considered SAFE for Obama. States NO ONE is talking about being in play very well could be by election day if this poll is remotely accurate. If he’s polling that badly there, that means much of new england is in play as well, something NO ONE is discussing. Will it all fall? Probably not, but if this poll is accurate, even remotely accurate, NH will NOT be the only new england state to swing, and my feelings on the rest of the Rust Belt are affirmed.