Skip to comments.Shock poll: Obama could lose Illinois
Posted on 08/20/2012 5:18:02 AM PDT by Zakeet
President Barack Obama could lose his home state of Illinois in November, a new poll shows.
A poll conducted by Illinois-based pollster and political strategist Michael McKeon found Obama leading Republican Mitt Romney by 49 percent to 37 percent in Cook County, the home of Chicago. That puts him ahead by a far thinner margin than expected in a county he should be winning handsomely.
Cook is the most Democratic leaning county in the state. It is also the most populous.
Those numbers do not bode well for the president.
He has to come out of Cook County with a big lead or hes gonna have problems downstate, explained McKeon, who said that based on the numbers he had seen, Obama polled only in the forties in downstate Illinois.
Its not like his policies are very popular downstate, McKeon said. Hes viewed as more part of Chicago than he is part of Illinois.
According to the poll, which surveyed 629 registered voters last week, Obamas problems are not in Chicago proper, but in suburban Cook County.
In the city of Chicago itself, he retains a 60-29 lead over Romney. But the Republican challenger leads 45-38 in the surrounding areas. Across the county as a whole, Romney leads 43-31 among independent voters, a crucial voting bloc. Romney also holds a 44-38 lead among male voters, and a 53-40 lead among white voters.
(Excerpt) Read more at dailycaller.com ...
Yeah, I saw some graphics either way.
It used to be that the “challenger” was red and the incumbent was blue,
but “red” hit a little close to home for the [communist] left, so the news media started using red for the GOP so as not to make the association of “communist red” with the ‘rats, and also to associate “danger” with the GOP.
Second, Obama's statewide election was questionable at best, and had any Republican of any capability at all run for the IL Senate, they may well have beat Zero then and saved us the trouble.
I agree. Although you are hard pressed to find any mainstream media outlet discussing his presidency as they would any other human being given the state of almost everything, I expect the voting public to issue the final verdict on his one term.
Vote fraud is a precise science in Crook County.....and who better to implement it than Emanuel, the ballerina tutu-of-all-tutus, charged with carrying out Obama's re-election plans in the best Capone/Daley tradition.
Since the Cubs never win anything, anymore, Chicagoans will take great comfort and pride in a Mayor Emanuel victory and will flood the Irish bars afterwards to raucously celebrate.
Did you see an Obama paid-for-by ad, or a 527 ad? The 527s are running ads everywhere in order to keep the base and thus the PV up.
People in Cook County are so uninformed that they don’t even know they are corrupt.
Quite honestly, I was so stunned that I didn’t notice who ran the ad. I will pay attention if I see another one.
They are NOT alone.
Some polling shows a full 20% of Democrats are admitting they plan to vote for Romney.
This election isn’t going to be close folks, fight like its tooth and nail, but don’t buy into what the media is selling.
Just 3.6% of the voting population has to change its votes from 2008 from Obama to Romney and Obama looses, or in simpler terms, a little under 7% of the voters who voted Obama last time, need to vote for Romney this time and assuming everything else is static, OBama loses.
Now, We know everything else won’t be equal, Republican enthusiam is through the stratosphere this time, and democratic enthusiasm is crap (and with this joker rightly so) Obama has lost by huge margins the Blue Dog democrats, and independents abandoned him long ago.
Basically ask yourself this one simple question.. Do you really honestly believe that less than 1 out of 14 people who voted for Obama last time won’t have changed their minds??? Its laughable on its face.
If Obama was winning, do you thin he’d be out there preaching class warfare? Class Warfare has NEVER won a national election, NEVER, and it never will. A Democrat campaigns on class warfare when he needs to GIN UP HIS BASE!!! It doesn’t sell to middle america, and frankly turns them the hell off... NO sane politician in a winning position in a national election campaigns on class warfare, its a losing proposition. The fact its Mid August and a SITTING Democratic President is STILL campaigning this way in his stump speeches tells you Obama doesn’t have his base locked up, not even close!!!! A SITTING PRESIDENT in LATE AUGUST is still campaigning to his BASE!!!! This tells you ALL you need to know.
This guy is TOAST, and is facing a repudiation that we haven’t seen of an incumbent since Herbert Hoover, if not worse!
Obama has a max of 42-43% of the electorate on his BEST day, reality is, the way he’s been campaigining and the way it looks like those and the leftist around him plan to continue campaigning, it is VERY possible he will get a lower percentage of the vote than HOOVER did in 32.
He and his minions have spent over 100 Million to define Romney and FAILED, in fact, all that spending couldn’t even keep him level in the polls Obama’s numbers keep dropping and will continue to do so. Why couldn’t they define Romney? BEcause the general public has written this fool off. NO ONE, other than the core left, are or will listen to a word this fool is saying about anything. He cannot get his numbers higher than low 40s no matter what he does, and Romney will begin to define himself to the voters, and as he does his numbers will continue to grow.
The more desperate the left becomes, the more outrageous their claims will be, the more outrageous their claims are the more voters will reject them and be turned off by them, so they will make even more outrageous claims etc etc etc.
Dems are in a DEATH SPIRAL, and its going to carry WAY WAY WAY down the ticket.
I believe when all is said and done, you will see 20-25% of registered Dems vote for Romney, and Romney will win independents by about 2-1.
Obama is beyond an amateur at politics, he literally is a nobody. He has no political skill, insticts or ability at all. Just look at his term, he rammed things through when he had the majority, basically by thuggery not skill, and once the payback for that happened and he lost that majority he has ACCOMPLISHED NOTHING!!! Calling this guy a politician is an insult, if you took his political “talent” and converted it to electricity, you coudn’t toast bread.
He’s never faced a hard election in his life, was given his seats in Il, and rode a perfect storm of anti-clinton against the dems, and anti-bush in the general to the White House.. any other time in political history and this joker would have washed out after 1 or 2 primary debates.
This guy is a no talent hack, those around him are equally as inept. There is no chance this guys getting a second term... NONE. Its not even going to be close folks.
Fight like its neck and neck, but don’t believe the crapola this is a nailbiter, by October the real discussion will be can the Republicans get 60 senate seats. Only the most die hard leftist pundit will even try to suggest this fool can win re-election.
So there isn’t any voter ID in the state? No reform of the voter registration rolls, as we had in Missouri after the 2000 controversy?
Ryan would have won Il had his divorce records which were sealed miraculously not been unsealed. Not suprisingly Ryan was running against Obama and up significantly in the race.
A Republican CAN win Il, just like a Republican CAN win in PA.. its a different pattern to do it, but it can be done.
“The more desperate the left becomes, the more outrageous their claims will be, the more outrageous their claims are the more voters will reject them and be turned off by them, so they will make even more outrageous claims etc etc etc.”
Well, the left and some other folks.
Lenny has his own polling firm?
Utter nonsense. He’s a lock in Illinois.
Indian isn’t even in PLAY.. Obama’s down so far there, nothing can save IN... that’s not even in play. But your overall sentiment is correct.
Basically if IL isn’t over the top automatic, NOTHING is safe for Obama, it will effect the rest of the election.
And some of the "likely voters" are even alive.