Skip to comments.Shock poll: Obama could lose Illinois
Posted on 08/20/2012 5:18:02 AM PDT by Zakeet
President Barack Obama could lose his home state of Illinois in November, a new poll shows.
A poll conducted by Illinois-based pollster and political strategist Michael McKeon found Obama leading Republican Mitt Romney by 49 percent to 37 percent in Cook County, the home of Chicago. That puts him ahead by a far thinner margin than expected in a county he should be winning handsomely.
Cook is the most Democratic leaning county in the state. It is also the most populous.
Those numbers do not bode well for the president.
He has to come out of Cook County with a big lead or hes gonna have problems downstate, explained McKeon, who said that based on the numbers he had seen, Obama polled only in the forties in downstate Illinois.
Its not like his policies are very popular downstate, McKeon said. Hes viewed as more part of Chicago than he is part of Illinois.
According to the poll, which surveyed 629 registered voters last week, Obamas problems are not in Chicago proper, but in suburban Cook County.
In the city of Chicago itself, he retains a 60-29 lead over Romney. But the Republican challenger leads 45-38 in the surrounding areas. Across the county as a whole, Romney leads 43-31 among independent voters, a crucial voting bloc. Romney also holds a 44-38 lead among male voters, and a 53-40 lead among white voters.
(Excerpt) Read more at dailycaller.com ...
I’m pretty sure Obama will carry the cemeteries by a huge margin.
Wow, if Obama is only around 50% in Chicago, IL very well could fall. If this poll is accurate, you are going to see all sorts of other states fall.
IL and MN are the only 2 rust belt states I think Obama has a chance of holding without a major fight. I believe he has ZERO chance of winning IA, IN, WI, and OH, and that MI and PA are very likely to turn as well, best Obama can hope for in MI and PA is a squeaker win IF He fights hard for them.. They truly are in Play and if Romney wants them and is willing to fight for them, he can get them too.
IL and MN are the only rust belt states I think he has a prayer of holding by any margin. If Obama is truly polling at 50% or so in Cook County, that pretty much means, while he may manage to hold IL, that means many other states that should be blue will fall.. Nothing is safe for him. Many New England states will turn beyond NH if this polling is remotely true.
Won’t get too excited over 1 poll, but this poll basically re-affirms my statements and belief that the RUST BELT is dead to Obama. PA and MI are the battleground there, and IL and MN are the only ones remotely safe for him, no other state will remotely go for Obama this time around.
The bigger point is if 0bama is struggling in IL then he will probably lose the other great lakes states.
Interestingly, I saw an Obama ad last night here in CA. I wondered why he would even waste his money here. We don’t usually see any ads for either candidate.
Made me wonder if Obama’s internals weren’t all that great out here.
Idk if it will happen in IL but I think we have a landslide in the making.
One June 24, 2012 I said: “I believe Obama could lose any state in the nation. His level of corruption, Marxism, incompetence, lying, failure, attacks on liberty and the general damage he has done to the nation is going to bring him a huge defeat in November.”
I still believe it today.
I see many “winnowing forks” coming to the fore these days.
(Matt 3:12 His winnowing fork is in his hand, and he will clear his threshing floor, gathering his wheat into the barn and burning up the chaff with unquenchable fire. )
In 2008, Sarah Palin herself was such a winnowing fork.
Today, we have the homos and their desire for approval.
And all along, we have the “haves” and “have nots” that are used by those who seek power unto themselves through socialism.
My brother-in-law and sister-in-law visited us over the weekend. They are both ultra liberals from Chicago. They told us that they and their daughter would be voting for Romney because “Obama has been an unmitigated disaster who couldn’t run a lemonade stand”. What shocked us the most was they had good things to say about Sarah Palin.
The terribly irony is that there are about as many people in Chicago proper as the rest of Illinois. So you got to win DeKalb, LaSalle, Kendall, Grundy, Kankakee, etc. by enough margin to offset whatever diff between Chicago vs. (real) Illinois.
If OBama can’t poll 50% in Cook County, that tells you volumes! 1 it means that Il could go Red, not likely but it could, if you Obama doesn’t come out of Chicago with a large margin, it won’t overwhelm the rest of the state. Now, will IL turn red? Probably not, but if he can’t get over 50% in CHICAGO, that basically tells you OBama is TOAST.
I’ve posted for a while now that the Rust Belt I believe is DEAD to obama with the exceptions of IL and MN, I believe IA, IN, WI, OH Obama has ZERO chance to carry this time. I also believe PA and MI are the battleground here, and if Romney takes the fight to OBama in them, Romney can indeed win them as well.. the best Obama can hope for in those states is to have to spend a LOT of time and money there and at best pull out a squeaker there. Personally I believe both will go Republican, assuming Romney takes the fight to them.
I have always felt that IL and MN were lock, but if Obama is only polling around 50% in Cook, it is certainly not impossible, that the state is in play depending on how things play out. However, I am not saying it will fall, but what this indicates is OTHER states that no one is talking about today WILL. If Obama can’t get over 50% of the vote in Cook county, there are very few states that can be considered SAFE for Obama. States NO ONE is talking about being in play very well could be by election day if this poll is remotely accurate. If he’s polling that badly there, that means much of new england is in play as well, something NO ONE is discussing. Will it all fall? Probably not, but if this poll is accurate, even remotely accurate, NH will NOT be the only new england state to swing, and my feelings on the rest of the Rust Belt are affirmed.
Yeah, I saw some graphics either way.
It used to be that the “challenger” was red and the incumbent was blue,
but “red” hit a little close to home for the [communist] left, so the news media started using red for the GOP so as not to make the association of “communist red” with the ‘rats, and also to associate “danger” with the GOP.
Second, Obama's statewide election was questionable at best, and had any Republican of any capability at all run for the IL Senate, they may well have beat Zero then and saved us the trouble.
I agree. Although you are hard pressed to find any mainstream media outlet discussing his presidency as they would any other human being given the state of almost everything, I expect the voting public to issue the final verdict on his one term.
Vote fraud is a precise science in Crook County.....and who better to implement it than Emanuel, the ballerina tutu-of-all-tutus, charged with carrying out Obama's re-election plans in the best Capone/Daley tradition.
Since the Cubs never win anything, anymore, Chicagoans will take great comfort and pride in a Mayor Emanuel victory and will flood the Irish bars afterwards to raucously celebrate.
Did you see an Obama paid-for-by ad, or a 527 ad? The 527s are running ads everywhere in order to keep the base and thus the PV up.
People in Cook County are so uninformed that they don’t even know they are corrupt.
Quite honestly, I was so stunned that I didn’t notice who ran the ad. I will pay attention if I see another one.
They are NOT alone.
Some polling shows a full 20% of Democrats are admitting they plan to vote for Romney.
This election isn’t going to be close folks, fight like its tooth and nail, but don’t buy into what the media is selling.
Just 3.6% of the voting population has to change its votes from 2008 from Obama to Romney and Obama looses, or in simpler terms, a little under 7% of the voters who voted Obama last time, need to vote for Romney this time and assuming everything else is static, OBama loses.
Now, We know everything else won’t be equal, Republican enthusiam is through the stratosphere this time, and democratic enthusiasm is crap (and with this joker rightly so) Obama has lost by huge margins the Blue Dog democrats, and independents abandoned him long ago.
Basically ask yourself this one simple question.. Do you really honestly believe that less than 1 out of 14 people who voted for Obama last time won’t have changed their minds??? Its laughable on its face.
If Obama was winning, do you thin he’d be out there preaching class warfare? Class Warfare has NEVER won a national election, NEVER, and it never will. A Democrat campaigns on class warfare when he needs to GIN UP HIS BASE!!! It doesn’t sell to middle america, and frankly turns them the hell off... NO sane politician in a winning position in a national election campaigns on class warfare, its a losing proposition. The fact its Mid August and a SITTING Democratic President is STILL campaigning this way in his stump speeches tells you Obama doesn’t have his base locked up, not even close!!!! A SITTING PRESIDENT in LATE AUGUST is still campaigning to his BASE!!!! This tells you ALL you need to know.
This guy is TOAST, and is facing a repudiation that we haven’t seen of an incumbent since Herbert Hoover, if not worse!
Obama has a max of 42-43% of the electorate on his BEST day, reality is, the way he’s been campaigining and the way it looks like those and the leftist around him plan to continue campaigning, it is VERY possible he will get a lower percentage of the vote than HOOVER did in 32.
He and his minions have spent over 100 Million to define Romney and FAILED, in fact, all that spending couldn’t even keep him level in the polls Obama’s numbers keep dropping and will continue to do so. Why couldn’t they define Romney? BEcause the general public has written this fool off. NO ONE, other than the core left, are or will listen to a word this fool is saying about anything. He cannot get his numbers higher than low 40s no matter what he does, and Romney will begin to define himself to the voters, and as he does his numbers will continue to grow.
The more desperate the left becomes, the more outrageous their claims will be, the more outrageous their claims are the more voters will reject them and be turned off by them, so they will make even more outrageous claims etc etc etc.
Dems are in a DEATH SPIRAL, and its going to carry WAY WAY WAY down the ticket.
I believe when all is said and done, you will see 20-25% of registered Dems vote for Romney, and Romney will win independents by about 2-1.
Obama is beyond an amateur at politics, he literally is a nobody. He has no political skill, insticts or ability at all. Just look at his term, he rammed things through when he had the majority, basically by thuggery not skill, and once the payback for that happened and he lost that majority he has ACCOMPLISHED NOTHING!!! Calling this guy a politician is an insult, if you took his political “talent” and converted it to electricity, you coudn’t toast bread.
He’s never faced a hard election in his life, was given his seats in Il, and rode a perfect storm of anti-clinton against the dems, and anti-bush in the general to the White House.. any other time in political history and this joker would have washed out after 1 or 2 primary debates.
This guy is a no talent hack, those around him are equally as inept. There is no chance this guys getting a second term... NONE. Its not even going to be close folks.
Fight like its neck and neck, but don’t believe the crapola this is a nailbiter, by October the real discussion will be can the Republicans get 60 senate seats. Only the most die hard leftist pundit will even try to suggest this fool can win re-election.
So there isn’t any voter ID in the state? No reform of the voter registration rolls, as we had in Missouri after the 2000 controversy?
Ryan would have won Il had his divorce records which were sealed miraculously not been unsealed. Not suprisingly Ryan was running against Obama and up significantly in the race.
A Republican CAN win Il, just like a Republican CAN win in PA.. its a different pattern to do it, but it can be done.
“The more desperate the left becomes, the more outrageous their claims will be, the more outrageous their claims are the more voters will reject them and be turned off by them, so they will make even more outrageous claims etc etc etc.”
Well, the left and some other folks.
Lenny has his own polling firm?
Utter nonsense. He’s a lock in Illinois.
Indian isn’t even in PLAY.. Obama’s down so far there, nothing can save IN... that’s not even in play. But your overall sentiment is correct.
Basically if IL isn’t over the top automatic, NOTHING is safe for Obama, it will effect the rest of the election.
And some of the "likely voters" are even alive.
Thanks for the ping.
(If Chicago can’t cheat the vote - Obama has no chance of taking Illinois.)
She told us that Reagan could have won Minnesota with a couple more campaign appearance and they knew it. But Reagan knew he was needed more in helping with a handful of down ticket races in states which he had already sewn up, so he opted to help out the team rather than create history as the first president ever elected for an all state sweep.
As it turned out, the only campaign appearance he made in Minnesota was a late evening refueling stop in Rochester on election eve which was barely in time to make the 10 p.m. news.
He was greeted by an enthusiastic crowd. We voted and the morning after the election, my father work us up with an early morning phone call.
"Did you hear that they caught both those guys?" He asked.
Still wiping the sleep from my eyes (I'd just gotten married a few months earlier and was up late doing what many newlyweds do), I asked "Both what guys?"
"Both of those guys that voted for Mondale" chuckled my Dad.
They 'vote' the people who didn't bother to show up to vote. Put a camera outside the polling places ( cheating is usually done in black neighborhoods) and count the people who go in to vote. If a thousand more are 'voted' than went in, there's cheating going on.
Dems don't vote the dead intentionally - the dead are just swept up with the people who didn't show up to vote...
They 'vote' the people who don't show up to vote. In the old days of punch cards it was don't by taking stacks of cards, putting an ice pick over the chad area to be punched and hitting it with a hammer.
It's easy to stop this type of voter fraud: Put a camera outside the polling places ( cheating is usually done in black neighborhoods) and count the people who go in to vote.
If a thousand more are 'voted' than went in, dems are cheating.
Dems don't vote the dead intentionally - the dead's cards are just swept up with the people who didn't show up to vote... (I don't know how they do it with paperless systems - but I'm sure they're still voting the people who don't show up)
Well, duh! Also, his polling is strong in Chicago proper, but weaker in the 'burbs. Another duh!
Finally, I hate it when they say Chicago, vs "downstate". It's as if Chicago comprises the entire northern area of Illinois. It's not "downstate" but the rest of Illinois outside Chicago (except for a few liberal pockets of course). I live outside the Chicago metro area, including the 'burbs, and I'm sure not downstate. I'm 50 miles south (maybe less) of the Wisconsin border.
Reagan would have been the third president to win all the states—after George Washington and James Monroe. Of course there were a lot fewer states back then.
Much easier to teach goats to surf.
Goats having fun surfing.
If the bottom completely falls out then it is in the realm of possibility, though still not likely. What will happen is that the campaign may have to divert resources to run ads downstate as an insurance policy. If down-staters start seeing or hearing ads, then you know it's over.
Mondale carried MN and DC.
Gore is the only presidential candidate who didn’t carry his (more or less) home state that I can remember.
Even IF (big IF) Obama were to lose IL, he’d probably still carry HI.
In 1960 the Presidential election was stolen from Nixon in Cook County Illinois by the corrupt Mayor Daley Political Machine
I don’t buy it, as of today.
2004 kerry won only 15 counties and won the state by a huge margin.
Obama won 45 counties and won by a huger(huger?) margin.
There were approx. 247k more voters in 2008 than 2004....approximately the difference between the kerry\Bush totals and Obam-Biden in cook county.(mostly chicago)
If Obama only gets what kerry got in 2004, he still carries illinois by a landslide.
So, the question is, will blacks from cook county(chicago) stay away from the polls ? I don’t think so.
Also, even the 24 state re-election sweep by James Monroe in 1820 wasn't unanimous-- one New Hampshire elector voted for John Q. Adams and three electors abstained (Mississippi, Tennessee and Pennsylvania).
The very next election cycle (1824) was the first time that elector selection was made by direct popular vote and even then, it didn't become the only method until 1864.
I think Obama will probably win Illinois, but it won’t be anywhere near the blowout it was last time. Last time, he won in counties that NEVER go Democratic (e.g. McLean). Part of it was the home-state factor, and no doubt part of it was people who got caught up in the “magic.” The bloom is off the rose now. Republicans ran very strongly in 2010, especially in congressional races. Gov. Quinn barely won, carrying only Chicago/Cook County, and St. Clair and Alexander Counties. Interestly, he squeaked by in St. Clair, usually a Democratic stronghold. He lost Madison County, usually reliable for Democrats. Sen. Mark Kirk beat Alexi Giannoulias who, even though he carried the same areas Quinn did, lost bigger in some other places.
Sure, Obama gets the electoral votes in a blowout or a close race. But as a Republican in Chicago, I’ve learned to live by having lower expectations. To see Obama squeak by here would be only marginally less-satisfying than seeing him lose.
An odd feature of the 1820 election was that the electoral votes from Missouri were counted although its admission as a state was not official until August 10, 1821.
Thanks Perdogg. I would not be surprised, but of course, tipping them off means they’ve got time to falsify ballots and whatnot.
While I think there is practically no chance for Romney to win Illinois this year. He is the type of Repub that could when office statewide in Illinois. If he was running for Governor of Illinois Romney could win but President this year. Sorry...
37% in Cook means Romney wins, period.
Furthermore it means a Dukakis sized beatdown in the EC.
That said I don’t buy this anymore than I buy the crap polls that the media keeps telling me Obama is “expanding” his nonexistent lead in.
Freeper Phil Collins thinks the state will be close. And that the embattled Rep Walsh who barley won last time and has a worse district will win easily. I don’t agree at all but I hope you are right Phil.
If Romney does any better than Bush did in 2004 (44.5%) I’d be shocked. If this state is close to being close it won’t be close nationwide.
Agree with all that.
Those poll results aren’t news, to me. I’ve said, for the past six months, that IL will be close.