We're looking more at a 1980 parallel here...
The colors are backward.
In 2004, the ‘polls’ gave us President Kerry.
In 2010, the ‘polls’ showed the Dems win, after which CNN Wolfe Blitzer and others commented on the ‘shellacking’ the Dems took.
We cannot and should not trust polls. Any poll can be designed and manipulated to produce a desired result. Many of these current polls are doing just that.
Medicare/Mediscare will be influential in Florida and similar ‘retirement’ states, but the problem for Dems/Obama in November is going to be the ‘pocketbook’ issues — joblessness, inflation, gas prices, the overall economy.
I expect [and hope] to see another ‘shellacking’ in November and Obama barely getting the same EV numbers McCain got in 2008.