Posted on 08/29/2012 8:02:10 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
new survey of 900 registered Catholic voters holds devastating news for Obama that cannot be overstated. It says 54% of Catholic voter support he had in 2008 has dwindled to just 27% (MoE +/- 3 points); a historic low level no one running for president can survive.
This 27% Catholic support for Obama will have important consequences for Obama and his Party in several states with sizable Catholic populations.
While some might attempt to belittle this gap by pointing to the fact that only about 24% are “adherent Catholics” that argument is defeated by the fact that the survey found that 73% of respondents said they cannot support Obama because of his mandate forcing Catholic institutions to commit abortions and distribute contraceptive devices to their employees.
It says that by 3 to 1 self-identified Catholics are angry and insulted by Obama’s attempts to dictate their religious practice.
Numbers this large indicate that whether these voters do or don’t attend Mass on a regular basis has nothing to do with these feelings of being insulted and threatened by this president.
By state here are the percentages of Catholics and the Electoral Vote value of each one.
Pennsylvania (53%) 20 EVs,
New Jersey (39%) 14 EVs New Hampshire (35%) 4 EVs, Wisconsin (29%)10 EVs
Florida (26%) 29 EVs New Mexico (26%) 5 EVs, Minnesota (25%) 10EVs Colorado (24%) 9 EVs,
Ohio (24%) 18 EVs, Iowa (23%) 6 EVs, Michigan (23%) 16 EVs, Missouri (20%) 10 EVs, Nevada (24%) 6 EVs,
When states that are “tied” or Romney is winning are separated out just Minnesota remains as a tough nut to crack among states that have at least a 20% Catholic populations. Holding Minnesota’s 10 and New Jersey's 14 EVs add[s] up to 133…
(Excerpt) Read more at coachisright.com ...
Perhaps Bishop Dolan can do a baptism at the RNC and a Requiem at the DNC
I hope every old JFK democrat is watching when the DNC has their Islamic extravaganza at the convention. It should make them run to the Republican nominee.
Soon to be followed by the abortion love fest, followed by the queer love fest. Hope they watch it all.
Lets hope this holds up. If it swings OH., and WI., it should be the edge for R&R.
I hope this is true and holds up. I worry about the mushy brained cultural Catholics who don’t really practice or believe their faith...
Actually, I’d think a more telling figure is just exactly what percentage of so-called Muslim Americans plan to vote for him. Or, alternately, just ask the questions from Christians of all flavors......either way, it boils down to him not being a traditional American with traditional American moral values, period.
Further, name me one, just one ‘Christian,’ Catholic, or Jew for that matter that has EVER uttered the phrase “....my Muslim Faith...” or the Mulsim call to prayer in Indonesia being the “sweetest sound I ever heard” beyond Obama and I might think this Catholic canard thing is relevant to Obama as a Christian.
At least an Exorcism.
Thanks for this as well as your interesting article yesterday. Catholics are the classic swing vote these days. It would be interesting if we could measure the preferences of practicing Catholics versus non practicing Catholics. The mayor of my city, Antonio Villaraigosa, was born into the Catholic faith but he has little use for the Church. Back in the day, would Hitler have been included in the “Catholic Vote” category even though as an adult he NEVER attended Mass and was extremely secular in his world view?
Both, ObamaCare and RomneyCare have enough in them to upset Catholics, so both candidates are disappointments to Catholics and to conservatives, in general.
Appears Catholics are awakening!
Easy. They swallowed whole the ‘social justice’ b.s. from liberal, modern Catholic Clergy; and look at government as an agent of force to accomplish that social justice.
‘Social Justice’ in its current meaning is a heresy - a twisting of the Corporal Acts of Mercy...
Feed the hungry
Give drink to the thirsty
Shelter the homeless
Clothe the naked
Visit the sick
Visit those in prison
Bury the dead
...which individual Catholics are supposed to be doing on their own as an act of Penance, and through the institution of the Catholic Church, as part of its mission on Earth.
Those things are definitely *NOT* supposed to be foisted off onto government to preserve the church coffers and absolve individual Catholics of the “bother” of having to do them, themselves.
Advocates of Doing It Wrong have been: Ted Kennedy, Nancy Pelosi, etc., etc, and many others.
If Obama’s support among Catholics drops in half, even NJ would be in play, and we’d be looking at a rout of Reaganesque proportions. Obama won NJ with 2.2 million votes to 1.6 million for McCain. The percentage of Catholics in NJ is 39%, which means they cast a total of .39 * 3.8 million = about 1.5 million votes, 54% of which went to Obama. So, Obama got .54 * 1.5 million Catholic votes= about 800,000.
If the Catholic % for Obama drops in half, from 54% to 27%, he would lose half of those 800,000 Catholic votes. Those 400,000 votes would go to Romney. That would drop Obama from his 2008 total of 2.2 million to 1.8 million, and raise the republican vote from 1.6 million to 2.0 million.
Losing half the Catholic vote in NJ would give Romney a 2.0 million to 1.8 million victory in NJ, which is a 52.6% to 47.4% breakdown. If this is true (it can’t be true, can it?) then Romney carries my home state (and Chris Christie’s) by 5 points. If NJ is in play, then virtually everything is in play.
Ditto for Jews. Obama's support for Israel can charitably be described as tepid, more realistically as downright hostile.
If you could subtract out Hispanics who vote overwhelmingly Democrat most of the time, and Catholics In Name Only (CINOs), John McCain actually WON the “Catholic Vote” by probably well over 60% in 2008.
Obama lost the 2008 Catholic vote in Pa, Ohio, and NJ. The Catholic vote varied between 70% for Obama in NM to 70% against Obama in La. Of course this is all exit polling so who the heck knows anyhow.
I’m not sure Obama won the Catholic vote in any red state, I would love to know that (not saying he didn’t win either, I just don’t know). Does anyone out there know?
The whole 54% thing is a national number to my understanding. Which isn’t as useful because we vote by state and the electoral college. You would assume the national number is made up of all the state elections, but I can’t find a complete list. Seems like 70% for and 70% against is a pretty big split, maybe based on region and teaching/discipline track record of bishop?
In huge states like NY and Cali Obama won the Catholic vote handily, both by 59%. I don’t know what it was in Texas, which is another big one and a red state. But in a few fairly blue and Catholic states like NJ and Pa, he lost.
I can’t see that Obama has helped his cause much with Catholics over the 2008 numbers, but who knows. Opinion polling on this might be flawed, like the ‘gay marriage’ vs secret ballot deal. But the 54% thing is a little misleading, as he actually already lost the Catholic vote in some key swing states that actually went blue in 2008, hopefully maybe he will lose enough from last time to lose the state this time around.
Freegards
It’s stats like these, like the fact that senate candidates such as Linda McMahon in CT (up in a Dem state) or Mandel in OH (an unknown tied with an established incumbent), or the tiny 4-point Obama lead in Northern VA (where he won by 23% in 08)-—it’s the micro data like this that points to an overwhelming electoral college victory for the GOP.
Where are the Catholic-heavy mega-states? California? New York? Illinois? Massachusetts? What about the Hispanic vote?
I’ve defended Catholic morality vis a vis voting against evangelicals who blame Catholicism for Obama’s election, for instance: accounting for where they live, Catholics vote more Republican than Protestants. Only when desciptors which correlate with conservatism among Protestants (”white,” “evangelical,” etc.) do Protestants vote more Republican. Or in years when Republicans bitch-slap conservatives (1992, 1996, 2008).
But no way do I believe that Obama’s only going to get 27% of Catholics, when Catholics are so often steeped in bitterly left-wing cultures like those of New York, LA, Chicago, Boston, Philly, Baltimore, Detroit, San Francisco, etc. In most of those cities, Republicans must be closeted, and “the Village Voice” is regarded as reactionary.
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