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The Parade of Bad Polls Continues
Powerline Blog ^ | 9-11-12 | John Hinderaker

Posted on 09/11/2012 4:32:00 AM PDT by radioone

Pointing out the flaws in worthless polls would be a full-time job, if anyone were willing to undertake it. Today’s example comes from CNN and ORC. News organizations report on polls like this one as though they meant something; this one will be popular with media organizations because it shows President Obama with a six-point lead over Mitt Romney among likely voters. But a cursory review of the poll data shows that if it means anything at all, it is good news for Romney.

To begin with, the CNN/ORC poll follows on the heels of another survey by the same organizations two weeks earlier. The findings–based, obviously, on a small sample–suggest that four percent of voters changed their minds about the Democratic Party over the space of two weeks:

That is, of course, ridiculous. What happened, rather, is that the second sample contained a lot more Democrats than the first one.

If the CNN/ORC poll contains any significant finding, it is this: independents favored Romney over Obama by 14%. That’s right, 14%:

If Romney carries independents by anything like that margin, the election won’t be close. The pollsters found that virtually all Democrats are voting for Obama and virtually all Republicans are voting for Romney, so someone with quicker math skills than mine can pretty quickly figure out how much they had to over-sample Democrats to come out with Obama winning by six points.

Really, this whole exercise is getting tiresome. Yet one question remains: where is the poll that over-samples Republicans?

UPDATE: A commenter calculates:

to get to those totals the following breakdown works…

D – 38. I – 36. R – 26.

that’s D+12, right…


TOPICS: Politics
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; democrats; obama; republicans; romney

1 posted on 09/11/2012 4:32:10 AM PDT by radioone
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To: radioone

Why is anyone surprised at this? I am only shocked they have Obama up by just a few points. Look to see more in the future.


2 posted on 09/11/2012 4:35:29 AM PDT by Forward the Light Brigade (Into the Jaws of H*ll)
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To: radioone

D+12????

This is serious con artist territory.

No Democrat ought to fell anything but annoyed that these press outlets are selling them a false narrative


3 posted on 09/11/2012 4:37:49 AM PDT by VanDeKoik
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To: radioone; Perdogg; nutmeg; 2ndDivisionVet; DarthVader; MNJohnnie; TonyInOhio
New ABC/Wa Po poll has Zero up 1 (49-48) with this split: D33 R23 I 37 (!!)

Wow. Even allowing for some assignment to the Is, this is (obviously) a 10-point Dem over sample to get a 1-point lead for Zero? And Romney is the one in trouble?

4 posted on 09/11/2012 4:45:38 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: radioone

The GOP has become Rove-ified, abandoning principles and leadership in favor of constantly shifting policy positions in the hope of picking up the odd 1-2% that is still well within margin of error.

The Dems obsess over polls because they lack principles and/or their true intentions would result in electoral washout. Populism is a soft name for lying.

Citing the Reagan comeback in terms of pure numbers overlooks one Everest-sized fact: his message of smaller government never wavered.

A set of values, a consistent message and a willingness to ignore the little waves in favor of the big electoral surf is a classic risk-reward proposition and the GOP crawl into a fetal position when risk is mentioned. GOP campaign types watch the same cable news rubbish but they, unfortunately, give the talking heads the exact response wanted and therefore increase the power of the talking heads.


5 posted on 09/11/2012 4:49:28 AM PDT by relictele
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To: radioone

These polls are being trumpeted to create the narrative, not to describe what is really happening.

Keep working daily to defeat Obama.

That is Job One.

We are winning but the media cannot allow that truth come out.


6 posted on 09/11/2012 4:54:07 AM PDT by exit82 (Pass the word: Obama is a FAILURE!! Democrats are the enemies of freedom!)
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To: LS

New ABC/Wa Po poll has Zero up 1 (49-48) with this split: D33 R23 I 37 (!!)”

That’s not a poll, that’s propaganda.


7 posted on 09/11/2012 4:55:15 AM PDT by radioone ( Main Stream Media. The Government built that.)
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To: exit82
"These polls are being trumpeted to create the narrative, not to describe what is really happening."

The classic definition of a "push poll".

8 posted on 09/11/2012 4:59:45 AM PDT by circlecity
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To: LS

That kind of manipulation means Romney is waaayyyyy up. Maybe 8-10.

My take is that these traitors in the msm are praying for Obama to clean Romney’s clock in the debates and then the wishful numbers become more of a reality. In the interim they want the Republicans dispirited and democrats motivated. In addition I see Romney drifting to the center and that makes me think his camp feels secure about the base vote. Meanwhile Obama’s camp is running to his base hard.


9 posted on 09/11/2012 5:12:54 AM PDT by commonguymd (New media has not replaced the MSM. It has emboldened it. twitter @commonguymd)
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To: radioone

This is a dangerous game to play for the Dems. As the election draws nearer, the polling orgs. will have to reflect some sense of reality and project the true numbers, which will show Romney gaining momentum rapidly down the stretch, which will motivate the base and sway uncommitted voters.


10 posted on 09/11/2012 5:14:51 AM PDT by WILLIALAL
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To: radioone
that’s D+12, right…

My only question is why they bother including ANY Republicans in the sample? Think of the numbers they could conjure up for Obama THEN!

11 posted on 09/11/2012 5:17:19 AM PDT by Lazamataz (Communist Party = Democrats. Socialist Party = Republicans. WE NEED A CAPITALIST FREEDOM PARTY!)
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To: radioone

Pardon my ignorance, but is it possible these scewed polls can work to our favor?
1. By putting Obama ahead by such a wide margin, will Republicans be more encouraged to vote and Democrats more inclined to stay home because their vote is not needed?
2. With such a wide margin, would the Democrats be led to believe they need not make the effort to steal the election?


12 posted on 09/11/2012 5:18:13 AM PDT by Wiser now (Socialism does not eliminate poverty, it guarantees it.)
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To: VanDeKoik
D+12???? This is serious con artist territory.

They really shouldn't be including Republicans in the sample at all.

Then the polls would show Obama CRUSHING Romney, right?

13 posted on 09/11/2012 5:19:45 AM PDT by Lazamataz (Communist Party = Democrats. Socialist Party = Republicans. WE NEED A CAPITALIST FREEDOM PARTY!)
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To: Wiser now

1. Yes.

2. No, because the insiders see the real-deal polls and they are understanding the need to double-cheat.


14 posted on 09/11/2012 5:20:53 AM PDT by Lazamataz (Communist Party = Democrats. Socialist Party = Republicans. WE NEED A CAPITALIST FREEDOM PARTY!)
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To: radioone

Regardless I’m seeing much better polls today, many a one point race.


15 posted on 09/11/2012 5:23:21 AM PDT by Andrei Bulba (No Obama, no way!)
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To: LS

Just asking a question here. I don’t believe the voter pool is only 23% republican. But are some of these pollsters claiming they randomize their method of contacting people, and then the party ID is whatever they happen to get from that “random” sample?

If so they can claim a clear conscience because, hey, that’s what people told us.

Or do they select the repub/ind/dem breakdown of their sample?


16 posted on 09/11/2012 5:28:35 AM PDT by Andrei Bulba (No Obama, no way!)
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To: Lazamataz

Keep up the fight Laz!

The other great thing about this WAPO poll release this morning is this blurb:

“Historically, candidates often get an immediate post-convention boost, with some of the shift dissipating quickly. Obama has a six-point edge among all voters based on interviews Friday, the day after the Democratic convention wrapped up. In interviews Saturday and Sunday, the two were about evenly matched among registered voters.”


17 posted on 09/11/2012 5:37:06 AM PDT by SteveAustin
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To: Andrei Bulba

Part of the reason is to demoralize Romney supporters and energize Obama supporters but they are also setting up the riots for when Romney wins by “obviously cheating” based on these polls.

It is heartbreaking to see what has happened to this country and the press in the name of liberal ‘progress.’


18 posted on 09/11/2012 5:40:25 AM PDT by erkyl (We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office --Aesop (~550 BC))
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To: LS
I wish that some polling group would take a poll that massively oversampled R's and then observe the sputtering and manic reaction of the rat media.

"Why, why, you've oversampled the R's...that's not fair, that's not accurate". "Yeah, so what's the problem? Haven't you been doing the exact same thing with the D's"?

It might not stop them from continuing to do it but it would give a lot of exposure to their 'thumb on the scale' methods.

19 posted on 09/11/2012 5:41:05 AM PDT by JPG (Make it happen.)
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To: SteveAustin

If they were evenly matched among registered voters, then Romney leads among likely voters.

Here is the other thing - how are these polling outfits defining a likely voter? I submit that many who voted in 2008 are not likely to vote in 2012, and thus should not be counted as a “likely voter” simply because they voted in 2008.


20 posted on 09/11/2012 5:43:37 AM PDT by mrs9x
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To: Lazamataz

why they bother including ANY Republicans in the sample?

Window dressing.


21 posted on 09/11/2012 5:54:54 AM PDT by Kolath
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To: radioone

The WashPost+ABC Poll must have been shamed into making some changes to move by 6 points in a day

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2929345/posts?page=1


22 posted on 09/11/2012 5:55:12 AM PDT by GeronL (The Right to Life came before the Right to Pursue Happiness)
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To: Lazamataz

If Obama and Holder can sue Gallup, maybe Mitt should follow suit. Seriously, this is fraud.


23 posted on 09/11/2012 5:56:32 AM PDT by No Socialist
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To: circlecity

10 point oversample.... even though GOP reportedly has more registered voters this year.


24 posted on 09/11/2012 5:57:16 AM PDT by GeronL (The Right to Life came before the Right to Pursue Happiness)
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To: Andrei Bulba
But are some of these pollsters claiming they randomize their method of contacting people, and then the party ID is whatever they happen to get from that “random” sample?

That is a good question.

The way it is SUPPOSED to work is that you poll X number of people, determine how many are R, D, I, Black, Brown, White, Young, Old, ... and then take this data and, with your own special sauce to get the right demographic mix you adjust the results based on your TURNOUT MODEL. In a nutshell the R/D/I split is the turnout model. This R/D/I split should be independent of the actual distribution of Republicans, Democrats and Independents who actually answer the phone for the poll in question. If it is done this way then there is no WEEKEND EFFECT, a false idea widely accepted here on FR that Dems poll better on weekends. OTOH, that belief could be correct if the pollster in question uses the distribution of R/D/I based on who answered the phone.

So what are they doing now? Who knows.

Well, as you have probably noticed, this so called turnout model is all over the map these days but is almost universally predicting a huge Dem turnout compared to the number of Republicans who will actually vote.

And what is the rationale for applying this Dem favored model? Answer: The hoped for effect of propaganda on the voting population.

That propaganda campaign worked even here on FR for a few days. I think it's fading as we dig out the facts about these polls.

25 posted on 09/11/2012 6:00:52 AM PDT by InterceptPoint (.)
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To: radioone

That independent number has to worry the Democrats, a lot.


26 posted on 09/11/2012 6:04:00 AM PDT by Mike Darancette (Take two Aspirin and call me in November - Obama for Hindmost.)
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To: Andrei Bulba

apparently at this point there are more registered GOP than Dems. So this poll is pretty whacked.


27 posted on 09/11/2012 6:04:01 AM PDT by GeronL (The Right to Life came before the Right to Pursue Happiness)
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To: radioone

Even with the sample stacked against him, Romney should be up 15 - 20 points! The real unemployment rate is much higher than even the critics claim, and all that is being done is 0bama is campaigning and fundraising!


28 posted on 09/11/2012 6:04:36 AM PDT by The Sons of Liberty ("Get that evil, foreign, muslim, usurping bastard out of MY White House!" FUBO GTFO!)
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To: radioone

I see the average idiot on the street and the libs on my facebook page.

I have no doubt Romney is losing. Romney is running the worst possible campaign imaginable and inspires zero confidence whatsoever.

I’ll vote for him any day over RR, but this campaign really sucks TBH.

I am disgusted.


29 posted on 09/11/2012 6:07:35 AM PDT by GlockThe Vote (The Obama Adminstration: 2nd wave of attacks on America after 9/11)
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To: radioone

CNN/ORC is a joke. Vinod Gupta is the owner of ORC, and special good buddy of Bill Clinton’s. The guy will do anything to make the Dems look good. Proof was when he screwed over the stockholders of his other company to fund the purchase of ORC so he could manipulate the numbers for the Clintons.


30 posted on 09/11/2012 6:11:59 AM PDT by rockinqsranch (Dems, Libs, Socialists, call 'em what you will, they ALL have fairies livin' in their trees.)
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To: Andrei Bulba
I'm not sure how they are doing it. I'm guessing they first ask the last question, "What is your party identification?" When they get a % of Ds they want, they stop taking any more responses from Ds. So it HAS to be predetermined what their mix is.

They would not just call 1000 people and take whoever answered the phone, because you might get 1000 Ds or 1000Rs by accident.

31 posted on 09/11/2012 6:13:26 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: radioone

I agree. Now, Rush and some Freepers think it is to depress turnout. I don’t think so. Rs are NOT going to be dissuaded from voting, and Is aren’t paying attention much.

I offered this theory a couple of months ago: I think they KNOW Romney is going to win pretty big in the EC (310-320). It might be closer in pop vote, but he’ll win that. I think the media will say, “How can this BE? ALL the polls told us that Obama was leading? This must be Republican dirty tricks!” as a means of discrediting and delegitimatizing Romney’s presidency as they tried to do with Bush in 2000 (”selected,” not “elected”).


32 posted on 09/11/2012 6:16:05 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: GlockThe Vote
Be patient, it's very close and Romney has not begun the barrage of ads with his money advantage.

If his ads suck, and if he doesn't take it to Bambi starting at the end of the next couple of weeks, and he has a horrible first debate, then we can panic (and be disgusted).

It's not like we shouldn't get used to being disappointed with the Mittster, right?

It's simply too early to throw in the towel.

33 posted on 09/11/2012 6:26:20 AM PDT by Lakeshark (I don't care for Mitt; the alternative is unthinkable)
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To: radioone; All

I hate to throw a wet towel on any of this but something has always struck me when claims of oversampling are made to make a poll look good:

Isn’t it reasonable to assume that when a particular group is oversampled, the pollster in question takes that into account, and gives the group undersampled more weight?

For example, if the Republicans are undersampled by say 5%, their final tally is given 5% more weight than the Democrats.

That’s how it’s done in certain areas of science I can attest. For example, if one particular protein shows more expression in a certain experiment on a Western blot, such expression levels are normalized against a more common protein like actin. If the actin levels demonstrate lower levels in the experimental conditions (an oversampling if you will of the experimental condition), then the experimental level is reported as a function of the actin, that is, it’s divided by the amount of actin (similarly for the control), so as to normalize all levels based on how much total protein was actually loaded onto the gel (the Western blot).

So again, isn’t it reasonable to assume these pollsters are doing a similar kind of normalization?


34 posted on 09/11/2012 6:28:05 AM PDT by FourtySeven (47)
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To: LS
If R/R win, I'm most fearful of the racial aspect in all this.

Bambi has played the race card with such virulence, the hatred and violence that could be released after election day will be the thing the MSM uses to deligitimize R/R.

35 posted on 09/11/2012 6:29:57 AM PDT by Lakeshark (I don't care for Mitt; the alternative is unthinkable)
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To: radioone

“That’s not a poll, that’s propaganda.”

That is what polling was always intended to be from day one. It was always propaganda because the general public believes in numbers. Most never look at the details and even those that do can’t interpret them properly.


36 posted on 09/11/2012 7:08:15 AM PDT by A Strict Constructionist (We're an Oligrachy...Resistance to tyrants is obedience to God. Thomas Jefferson)
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To: erkyl

Liberalism will never produce real progress by any true measure. It is based upon arrogance; so, it never objectively evaluates the outcomes of its actions. That is why the “progressives” (communists) only offer excuses when their ideas fail, and all of their ideas ALWAYS fail.


37 posted on 09/11/2012 7:12:13 AM PDT by caprock
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To: LS

OStinkBugula and DemoRat propaganda just like I’ve been suspecting.

Their sampling does not reflect reality which is a nearly 5% advantage for the GOP in voter registration. They are just trying to get nervous nelly weak minded people in our party to get discouraged and not show up to vote. We must get faces like flint with this crowd. This election is war and for the survival of the republic. May God curse these evil vermin and bring them to utter defeat.


38 posted on 09/11/2012 7:40:57 AM PDT by DarthVader (Politicians govern out of self interest, Statesmen govern for a Vision greater than themselves)
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To: Lakeshark

I know. That’s certainly something they are looking for.


39 posted on 09/11/2012 7:50:08 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: VanDeKoik
D+12????

Makes no difference. Some folks will continue to have large mudslides in their diapers when they see these PHONY polls revealing an Obama advantage.

40 posted on 09/11/2012 7:56:27 AM PDT by PJ-Comix (Beware the Rip in the Space/Time Continuum)
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To: LS; GOPsterinMA; StarFan; stanz; NautiNurse
New ABC/Wa Po poll has Zero up 1 (49-48) with this split: D33 R23 I 37 (!!)

Wow. Even allowing for some assignment to the Is, this is (obviously) a 10-point Dem over sample to get a 1-point lead for Zero? And Romney is the one in trouble?

Thank you for this post, LS. Saw Larry Sabato on Fox News about an hour ago discussing this very poll (ABC/WaPo: Zero 49, Romney 48). Sabato said that we should only be pretty much concerned about "likely voters" from now 'til election day. He said this race is FAR from over.

I admit I'm feeling somewhat better today about the "Obama Bounce" from the 'RAT convention. ;-)

41 posted on 09/11/2012 10:01:52 AM PDT by nutmeg (I'm with Sarah Palin and Ted Cruz: "ABO"/Ryan 2012)
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To: LS

I’m pretty sure I read one poll description where it said they randomly called a set number of people, using some kind of software to determine where to place the random calls. I got the impression they then let the folks they poll self identify as to party.

In thinking about all these polls, it occurred to me that in recent elections even the EXIT polls have proved to be wrong. So no matter what they say, get out and vote.


42 posted on 09/11/2012 11:54:36 AM PDT by Andrei Bulba (No Obama, no way!)
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To: nutmeg

Like I’ve been saying to you for days now...RELAX!!!

:)


43 posted on 09/11/2012 5:08:37 PM PDT by GOPsterinMA (The Glove don't fit, but it's better than a burqa.)
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