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Wind Turbine Answers Elusive
Michigan Capitol Confidential ^ | 9/14/2012 | Tom Gantert

Posted on 09/17/2012 12:35:00 PM PDT by MichCapCon

Michigan's open spaces could be dotted with turbines nearly 500 feet tall — the same height as the 40-story Guardian Building in downtown Detroit — if voters pass Proposal 3 in November.

The proposal, which would mandate that 25 percent of Michigan's energy come from renewable sources such as wind by 2025, would require a huge increase in the number of turbines across the state.

The newest turbines have rotor blades that are longer than a football field. Experts are split about how many of the mammoth structures would be needed to generate as much as 20 percent of the state's energy from wind. Most experts think 20 percent of the 25-percent proposed standard would have to come from wind.

However, advocates and opponents of the 25-percent mandate disagree over how many turbines will be needed. Michigan currently has 292 wind turbines in operation with another 240 expected to be online by 2014.

To meet the 25-percent mandate, estimates range from 2,300 to 3,790 more turbines will be needed. Both sides do agree that the newer 2.4 megawatt (MW) capacity turbines will be used.

At issue is how efficient the turbines will be once they are installed. Wind turbines are measured by capacity factor, which tracks the percentage of the maximum energy turbines are capable of producing. Wind turbines aren't always online because wind can be unpredictable. The capacity factor can range from 15 percent to 45 percent in most cases.

The Michigan Environment Council is in favor of the 25-percent mandate and estimates another 2,300 wind turbines will be needed, said MEC Spokesman Hugh McDiarmid.

The MEC is basing its estimate on a 35-percent capacity factor, while Detroit Edison says it uses 30 percent, according to Matthew Wagner, manager of wind development for the company. By comparison, the U.S. Energy Information Administration makes its projections using a 30-percent capacity factor.

Thomas Hewson, principal of Energy Ventures Analysis Inc. in Virginia, said Michigan's existing turbines operate at a 25 percent capacity factor. Hewson said he made that calculation based on data provided by Michigan wind farms to the Energy Information Administration.

Using a 25-percent capacity factor, Hewson estimates a total of 4,082 turbines would be needed, including the 292 turbines already in existence.

Kevon Martis, of the Interstate Informed Citizens Coalition, is against the 25 percent mandate. He estimates at a 30 percent capacity factor, a total of 3,536 turbines would be needed, including the existing 292 turbines.

"The experience of several existing Michigan wind farms suggests a 25 percent to 30 percent capacity factor is more likely for Michigan," said Jack McHugh, senior legislative analyst at the Mackinac Center for Public Policy. "Higher figures are mere speculation at this time."


TOPICS: Government
KEYWORDS: energy; michigan; wind

1 posted on 09/17/2012 12:35:05 PM PDT by MichCapCon
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To: MichCapCon

Exactly how cold would it get? I remember reports of transmissions seizing up with windmill turbines in regionally cold areas.....costs for maintenance exceeded savings over oil/coal-fired generation costs.


2 posted on 09/17/2012 12:38:00 PM PDT by Gaffer
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To: MichCapCon

Or they could build one small nuke plant...


3 posted on 09/17/2012 12:40:50 PM PDT by 2banana (My common ground with terrorists - they want to die for islam and we want to kill them)
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To: MichCapCon
I hope the voters of Mi say no to this boondoggle.
4 posted on 09/17/2012 12:42:17 PM PDT by exnavy (The time is upon us, fish or cut bait, may God guide your heart.)
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To: Springman; Sioux-san; 70th Division; JPG; PGalt; DuncanWaring; taildragger; epluribus_2; ...
I decided to ping both lists on this one because it is so important and it will be on our ballot.

Basically admitting the complete and utter folly of the idea but wanting it written into the constitution anyway.

If anyone wants to be added to the Michigan Cap Con ping list, let me know.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us
5 posted on 09/17/2012 12:43:12 PM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: cripplecreek
Proposal 3 would require that the state add as many as 13 times more wind turbines in Michigan than currently operate. Proposal 3 would mandate that 25 percent of Michigan’s energy come from renewable sources. Wind is expected to be the primary supplier of renewable energy if the proposal passes.

Advocates and experts predict 2,300 to 3,790 nearly 500-feet high wind turbines would have to be added to meet the 25-percent mandate. Michigan currently has 292 wind turbines in operation.


Photobucket

Most of Michigan is 'Poor' or 'Marginal' For Wing Energy
There are at least a couple of reasons they'll never be placed offshore.
6 posted on 09/17/2012 12:44:50 PM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: MichCapCon
Wind power is a complete disaster April 08, 2009
By Michael J. Trebilcock

There is no evidence that industrial wind power is likely to have a significant impact on carbon emissions. The European experience is instructive. Denmark, the world’s most wind-intensive nation, with more than 6,000 turbines generating 19% of its electricity, has yet to close a single fossil-fuel plant. It requires 50% more coal-generated electricity to cover wind power’s unpredictability, and pollution and carbon dioxide emissions have risen (by 36% in 2006 alone).

Flemming Nissen, the head of development at West Danish generating company ELSAM (one of Denmark’s largest energy utilities) tells us that “wind turbines do not reduce carbon dioxide emissions.” The German experience is no different. Der Spiegel reports that “Germany’s CO2 emissions haven’t been reduced by even a single gram,” and additional coal- and gas-fired plants have been constructed to ensure reliable delivery.

Indeed, recent academic research shows that wind power may actually increase greenhouse gas emissions in some cases, depending on the carbon-intensity of back-up generation required because of its intermittent character. On the negative side of the environmental ledger are adverse impacts of industrial wind turbines on birdlife and other forms of wildlife, farm animals, wetlands and viewsheds.

Industrial wind power is not a viable economic alternative to other energy conservation options. Again, the Danish experience is instructive. Its electricity generation costs are the highest in Europe (15¢/kwh compared to Ontario’s current rate of about 6¢). Niels Gram of the Danish Federation of Industries says, “windmills are a mistake and economically make no sense.” Aase Madsen , the Chair of Energy Policy in the Danish Parliament, calls it “a terribly expensive disaster.”

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported in 2008, on a dollar per MWh basis, the U.S. government subsidizes wind at $23.34 — compared to reliable energy sources: natural gas at 25¢; coal at 44¢; hydro at 67¢; and nuclear at $1.59, leading to what some U.S. commentators call “a huge corporate welfare feeding frenzy.” The Wall Street Journal advises that “wind generation is the prime example of what can go wrong when the government decides to pick winners.”

The Ontario Power Authority advises that wind producers will be paid 13.5¢/kwh (more than twice what consumers are currently paying), even without accounting for the additional costs of interconnection, transmission and back-up generation. As the European experience confirms, this will inevitably lead to a dramatic increase in electricity costs with consequent detrimental effects on business and employment. From this perspective, the government’s promise of 55,000 new jobs is a cruel delusion.

A recent detailed analysis (focusing mainly on Spain) finds that for every job created by state-funded support of renewables, particularly wind energy, 2.2 jobs are lost. Each wind industry job created cost almost $2-million in subsidies. Why will the Ontario experience be different?

In debates over climate change, and in particular subsidies to renewable energy, there are two kinds of green. First there are some environmental greens who view the problem as so urgent that all measures that may have some impact on greenhouse gas emissions, whatever their cost or their impact on the economy and employment, should be undertaken immediately.

Then there are the fiscal greens, who, being cool to carbon taxes and cap-and-trade systems that make polluters pay, favour massive public subsidies to themselves for renewable energy projects, whatever their relative impact on greenhouse gas emissions. These two groups are motivated by different kinds of green. The only point of convergence between them is their support for massive subsidies to renewable energy (such as wind turbines).

This unholy alliance of these two kinds of greens (doomsdayers and rent seekers) makes for very effective, if opportunistic, politics (as reflected in the Ontario government’s Green Energy Act), just as it makes for lousy public policy: Politicians attempt to pick winners at our expense in a fast-moving technological landscape, instead of creating a socially efficient set of incentives to which we can all respond.

7 posted on 09/17/2012 12:45:04 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Government is the religion of the sociopath.)
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To: 2banana
Or they could build one small nuke plant...

We also sit on an ocean of natural gas and have considerable hydroelectric potential that's just making prime lakefront property now.
8 posted on 09/17/2012 12:50:49 PM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: MichCapCon

Since they take mills out of commission, once the subsidies stop, they never make a dent on energy contribution.

It will remain under 5%.

The 10% or 15% figures you see, are just pretend, due to state “mandates”.
The Utility must provide those percentages from “renewable sources”, oR use “other means” to make up the difference and ALLOCATE THAT POWER TO THE “RENEWABLE” COLUMN!!!

The entire “mandate” is joke!!


9 posted on 09/17/2012 12:52:12 PM PDT by G Larry (Progressives are Regressive because their objectives devolve to the lowest common denominator.)
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To: MichCapCon

It just amazes me at the hubris that takes place in seats of gov’t where they assume they can outperform a marketplace that is capable of making millions of decisions per second. Instead, we get clowns who haven’t the foggiest idea of how markets operate, yet think they can do better. If politicians want to make the economy better, they should sit down, shut up, and get out of the way.


10 posted on 09/17/2012 12:52:46 PM PDT by econjack (Some people are as dumb as soup.)
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To: MichCapCon

Hope the sun and wind don’t mind getting arrested for not providing enough power.....


11 posted on 09/17/2012 12:53:56 PM PDT by G Larry (Progressives are Regressive because their objectives devolve to the lowest common denominator.)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

Wind Power is a Complete Disaster

Indeed - as an engineering solution. On the other hand, as a way for crony capitalists to suck massive amounts of money from the taxpayer's purse they work nearly perfectly.

12 posted on 09/17/2012 12:54:14 PM PDT by Paine in the Neck (Socialism consumes everything)
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To: MichCapCon

One thing’s for sure, they kill over 400,000 birds (mostly raptors) in the United States each year. Where’s the environmentalist’s outrage over this?


13 posted on 09/17/2012 12:59:40 PM PDT by GeorgeWashingtonsGhost
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To: E. Pluribus Unum
Hidden in this story is the fact that the turbines and towers are manufactured in Germany and South Korea.

The first of dozens of wind turbine part shipments begins Monday morning at Muskegon's Mart Dock
14 posted on 09/17/2012 1:00:17 PM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: GeorgeWashingtonsGhost

...and THEY ARE AN EYE SOAR OF MONUMENTAL PROPORTIONS JUST LIKE SOLAR PANELS. Save to mention, they create noise pollution.


15 posted on 09/17/2012 1:03:27 PM PDT by GeorgeWashingtonsGhost
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To: cripplecreek
Hidden in this story is the fact that the turbines and towers are manufactured in Germany and South Korea.

"We want to be their best customer."

16 posted on 09/17/2012 1:04:35 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Government is the religion of the sociopath.)
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To: GeorgeWashingtonsGhost

Monuments to stupidity.


17 posted on 09/17/2012 1:04:59 PM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: MichCapCon

We already know that the people of Michigan are economically illiterate - they voted dim-bulb-crat.

We already know that the people of Michigan are manufacturingly (izzat a word?) illiterate - they have GM and Chrysler.

Guess we should assume that the people of Michigan are also scientifically illiterate if they even imagine that the value of the electricity generated by those Obamadork-like idiocies would even approach the costs of construction and maintenance.

(My apologies to the science/tech types in Michigan. You already know what I’ve said is true. Sux to be surrounded by dim-bulb-crats, doesn’t it?)


18 posted on 09/17/2012 1:13:15 PM PDT by Da Coyote
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To: cripplecreek
There are at least a couple of reasons they'll never be placed offshore.

One is turbines over or near water affect natural evaporation, the origin of all weather. They can't change water evaporation without changing the climate. Addressing dubious climate change by changing the climate in dubious ways makes no sense at all.

19 posted on 09/17/2012 1:14:32 PM PDT by Reeses
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To: Reeses
One is turbines over or near water affect natural evaporation, the origin of all weather. They can't change water evaporation without changing the climate. Addressing dubious climate change by changing the climate in dubious ways makes no sense at all.

Yeah I've thought about that myself. As we've already seen in Texas, ground level temps are higher under wind farms at night due to the fact that they stir the natural inversion layer that forms. I've also wondered about a wind shadow effect caused by thousands of 500 foot windmills.

I also noticed that their map doesn't take into account places like Sleeping Bear dunes, Pictured rocks national lake shore, or Isle Royale. You simply won't put windfarms off shore there. There are also shipping lanes to take into account. Plus there is fishing, tourism and angry private lake front owners to take into account.
20 posted on 09/17/2012 1:26:51 PM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: 2banana; MichCapCon
Or they could build one small nuke plant...

NO they couldn’t the EPA will never give them the permits.

But wind turbines will get an exemption for bird kills.

For a nuke plant every bird that strike and kills their cooling tower must be counted and reported.

Harming or killing a raptor is a federal offence punishable by fine and imprisonment.

Wind turbines kill hundreds every year but the owner operators escape punishment.

Government hypocrisy and insanity.

To solve an unproven problem we are instituting a solution that cost more than any alternative and creates more sever problems than the unproven problem we seek to cure.

21 posted on 09/17/2012 1:30:09 PM PDT by Pontiac (The welfare state must fail because it is contrary to human nature and diminishes the human spirit.)
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To: MichCapCon

“would require a huge increase in the number of turbines across the state”.

Someone should have had the good sense to keep this utter stupidity, confidential.

Two other things would have to have a huge increase to accomplish the ridiculous.

The constant wind tunnel, and the “revenue” needed to build it.

There ain’t no such thing as a constant wind tunnel. So wind turbans are a better idea than wind turbines.

No one knows broke like a state investing in wind energy. When the subsidy dies you have an expensive and difficult maintenance anchor around your neck and a sometime energy producer.

...and the unanswerable question, who is it that says to me or anyone else, that the other sources of energy used in the past, present,and future, are NOT renewable? Huh? They can’t, and they won’t because history and science are on the side of Oil, Gas, Nuclear, wood, Coal, and any other source used in the last 100 years. I just love listening to environmental nit wits, a bigger waste of time than TV.

Cleanest air in the world other than perhaps a pacific island or two, and the nitwits are wasting our time with minutia.


22 posted on 09/17/2012 1:32:09 PM PDT by wita
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To: MichCapCon

“To meet the 25-percent mandate, estimates range from 2,300 to 3,790 more turbines will be needed. Both sides do agree that the newer 2.4 megawatt (MW) capacity turbines will be used. “

Complete madness.


23 posted on 09/17/2012 1:32:44 PM PDT by headstamp 2 (What would Scooby do?)
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To: Gaffer

They need some 0W20 lube, good down to -57F.


24 posted on 09/17/2012 1:35:48 PM PDT by nascarnation (Defeat Baraq 2012. Deport Baraq 2013)
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To: Gaffer
Wind turbines aren't always online because wind can be unpredictable. The capacity factor can range from 15 percent to 45 percent in most cases

From what I've read, they require a minimum of 10 mph winds just to turn them. My experience here in S.E. Michigan is that normal winds don't reach the minimum until at least noon and usually die down in the evening unless of course there's a storm or something. That means only about an eight hour window of operation...

That don't mean a hill of beans since these damn things are proven to be federal grant money pits.........

25 posted on 09/17/2012 1:35:57 PM PDT by Hot Tabasco (')
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To: MichCapCon

Cool!

I will be down here in Pensacola making turbines that you will pay for via taxes and higher electricity rates!

Thanks!


26 posted on 09/17/2012 1:36:33 PM PDT by Mikey_1962 (Obama: The Affirmative Action President.)
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To: Pontiac

Govt needs to hire folks to harvest the shredded poultry downstream to feed to the starving victims of the endless Baraqqi Depression.


27 posted on 09/17/2012 1:38:40 PM PDT by nascarnation (Defeat Baraq 2012. Deport Baraq 2013)
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To: Mikey_1962

Speaking of making turbines, a plant here in SD just laid off workers because of “uncertainty” in the market. I think they make blades.


28 posted on 09/17/2012 1:43:37 PM PDT by wita
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To: wita

Without the tax subsidy (which expires end of CY012 and the House shows no interest in renewing) turbines are completely uneconomic.

So I’m sure orders are zip right now.

There’s a big wind farm going in here in N. Central Indiana that the company is hiring anybody with a pulse to get these things up and running by end of the year, otherwise they don’t get the subsidies.


29 posted on 09/17/2012 1:47:39 PM PDT by nascarnation (Defeat Baraq 2012. Deport Baraq 2013)
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To: Pontiac
From my reading and research it looks like the cost of refurbishing and reinstalling turbines in a small dam is similar to erecting one of these windmills. However the useful life of a windmill is between 10 and 25 years at the most. Hydroelectric turbines on the other hand have a service life of 50 years or more. The dams can last for hundreds of years. (The one next to my house is more than 150 years old now)

Just an offhand estimate gives dams about a 4 to 1 cost advantage over wind. When you take into account the fact that a water turbine produces power 24 hours per day, 365 days per year for decades the cost effectiveness of a dam over wind probably goes well beyond 10 to 1 over wind.

This map shows where the dams in Michigan are. Not all would be useful for power generation obviously but if you could put a couple dozen back into electricity production, they'll far surpass 3700 windmills in both cost effectivness and actual generation capacity.

Photobucket

BTW, here is a feasibility study for repowering two small dams in Ann Arbor Michigan.

HYDROELECTRIC REDEVELOPMENT ARGO AND GEDDES DAMS FEASIBILITY STUDY(pdf)
30 posted on 09/17/2012 1:53:29 PM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: Mikey_1962
I will be down here in Pensacola making turbines that you will pay for via taxes and higher electricity rates!

We're buying ours from Germany and South Korea.
31 posted on 09/17/2012 1:55:18 PM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: MichCapCon

The residents of Michigan had better be prepared for much higher electricity rates. Living in the Coachella Valley (Palm Springs area) of California where we have had hundreds and hundreds of wind turbines for years now, they are an expensive joke. Our utilities are required to purchase that power at above market rates in order for the turbines to be economically viable. Plus, there are Federal subsidies.

We live in the second most windy area of California. Yet, there are days when the wind does not blow. So, conventional power plants are needed for windless days. Plus, it is puzzling to view all of the turbine fans not spinning at all on days when it is windy. Wind turbine and solar panels - two very expensive follies.


32 posted on 09/17/2012 2:18:52 PM PDT by CdMGuy
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To: nascarnation

...and interestingly enough there is a complete halt to wind farms here in SD. There was at least one ready to go, but before construction started they wisely put the deal on hold.

Don’t think I will ever get used to them. Ugly eyesore.


33 posted on 09/17/2012 2:28:02 PM PDT by wita
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To: MichCapCon

Go to GE’s website. Look at the spec’s.

Wind generators shut down above 40C and below -10C.

-10 C is about 14 F.

Wind Generators do not run when it is too hot, too cold, too windy, freezing rain and when the wind does not blow.

I call them the “Three little Bears” of generation, they want it just right.


34 posted on 09/17/2012 4:00:12 PM PDT by hadaclueonce (you are paying 12% more for fuel because of Ethanol. Smile big Corn Lobby,)
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