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The Poll the Media Isn't Talking about [Why the Dims are runnin' scared!]
Demoralized as H*** ^ | 17 Sep 2012 | Da Tech Guy

Posted on 09/18/2012 9:08:22 AM PDT by Yashcheritsiy

For the last two weeks we have been treated to the narrative that Barack Obama is surging at the polls, Mitt Romney is in trouble and unless there is a massive change in direction it is all over.

Simply put this is a lie.

Of all the polls you have seen, there is one poll that has gotten no attention, it is a poll that has been taken monthly, it is a poll that Doug Ross spotted and promoted on his site. It is the Rasmussen Poll of party identification.

They have party identification results online dating back to 2004. Here are the 2012 numbers through August...

(Excerpt) Read more at datechguyblog.com ...


TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; trends
Have to excerpt because there are a LOT of graphics that won't copy here.

Well worth reading the whole thing. He uses party identification to show WHY the Dems are actually at an incredible disadvantage right now. In other words, he's not just relying on his "gut instinct" like a lot of people here, but has some good facts and arguments to back it up.

1 posted on 09/18/2012 9:08:26 AM PDT by Yashcheritsiy
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To: Yashcheritsiy

Links don’t work.


2 posted on 09/18/2012 9:10:15 AM PDT by rwilson99 (Please tell me how the words "shall not perish and have everlasting life" would NOT apply to Mary.)
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To: Yashcheritsiy

Go view the current poll on yahoo’s finance page.

http://finance.yahoo.com/

Do Governor Romney’s remarks at a recent fundraiser regarding 47% of Americans being dependent on government make you more or less likely to support his candidacy?

More likely (12958) 49%
Less likely (7459) 28%
Will have no impact (6108) 23%

HAH!


3 posted on 09/18/2012 9:13:15 AM PDT by tickedoffnow (No more...)
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To: tickedoffnow

Great!


4 posted on 09/18/2012 9:15:34 AM PDT by WashingtonSource
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To: Yashcheritsiy
For the last two weeks we have been treated to the narrative that Barack Obama is surging at the polls, Mitt Romney is in trouble and unless there is a massive change in direction it is all over.

Simply put this is a lie.

Of all the polls you have seen, there is one poll that has gotten no attention, it is a poll that has been taken monthly, it is a poll that Doug Ross spotted and promoted on his site. It is the Rasmussen Poll of party identification.

They have party identification results online dating back to 2004. Here are the 2012 numbers through August

That shows a GOP advantage in registration this year but you might say: “Hey, Datechguy, you’ve been hitting polls all year, why can’t THIS poll be wrong?”

That’s a good question, we can answer it by asking another question: Does this poll of party identification correspond with the results of national elections?

Lets take a look:

2004 George Bush wins re-election

The closest the Republicans come to democrats in registration is Sept at a .6 in September. On election day Democrats had a registration advantage of 1.5. Yet not only did George Bush win re-election with that disadvantage but the GOP took 3 senate seats and 3 House seats over 2002.

2006 Midterms Revenge of the left:

In January the GOP was the closest they would be .6 off but by November the Mark Foley scandal was still big news and on election day Democrats had a spread of 6.1 points. This carried them to a net gain of 31 house seats & 5 seats.

2008 The coming of Barack Obama

The year of hope and change. The closest split was 5.6 in January & in September after the Palin Pick but by election day not only was the split 7.6 for Dems but for the first time (Feb) A party had identification over 40%. The Democrats kept that number over 40% 8 out of 12 months that year reaching a high of 41.7% the largest number in this 9 year sample for either party. With these figures it’s should be no surprise that Barack Obama win but Democrats picked up 8 seats in the Senate & 21 Seats in the house.

2010 Midterms The Rise of the Tea Party

2010 proved conclusively that timing is everything for the first time in the nine years, the GOP took an advantage in poll registration from -2.9 to plus 1.3 in one month, and that month was November.

Additionally the 37.0 figure for the GOP was the highest for the party since Dec 2004. At the very same time the 33.7 figure in December was the lowest figure for democrats EVER.

Correspondingly the GOP gained 6 Senate seats (not counting the Jan Scott Brown Race) and in the house picked up 63 seats more than democrats picked up in 2006 & 2008 combined.

These results since 2004 seem to indicate the poll is reliable. So what has it said lately, lets start with 2011 lets look at 2011

This is the year of the great fights between the GOP House & the president and it’s the most interesting year of the lot. The lead changes hands 6 times during the year as the country tries to figure out what it wants and for the first time EVER Other was in the lead, (Aug) tied with the GOP (33.5) ahead of democrats (33.0) other was ahead of the GOP 3 times in 2007.

Now lets look at that 2012 chart again:

At no time during the year do the Democrats have a registration advantage vs republicans, the gap closes in July & re-separates in August. The low point for the GOP was July for 34.9 and the high August at 37.6 For democrats the high was 34.0 in June & July the low was 32.4 in Feb

What does this mean for November? It means a lot.

The Democrats won 2 election in this period 2006 & 2008 with a 6.9 advantage in 2006 & a 7.6 advantage in 2008.

There is no example of the Democrats winning since 2004 with an advantage less that 6.9.

The GOP won two elections in this period 2004 with a -1.6 disadvantage & 2010 with a 1.3 advantage. This means the GOP has proven it can win with not only a small lead but with an actual disadvantage. Additionally with an advantage of only 1.3 they pulled off the biggest house swing in my lifetime.

Can these number change? Well the biggest 1 month swing I’ve seen is 4.2 Oct-Nov in 2010 the biggest 3 month swing was Dec 2007-Feb 2008 6.9 in favor of Democrats at the rise of Obama.

Tell me with the economy in the tank, and the new trouble in the Middle East, what is the prospect of a swing of that size to the Democrats happening again right now? Moreover even if that record registration swing repeated itself right now this would give democrats an advantage of only 2.6 points.

I’ve covered a lot of national polls on this site over the last year and all those polls ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX have one thing in common.

Not a single one of those polls had a sample with a GOP advantage.

As Rush would say: Zip, Zero Nada.

Not only have none of these polls had a GOP advantage but the closest we saw was a D+4 poll.

Doug Ross via (@NumbersMuncher & @AriFleischer) has a great chart on his site that I’ll reprint here:

In every single poll showing Barack Obama ahead on this chart the sample is at least D+4 Even if the biggest swing in history takes place in the next 3 months toward the left that is 1.4 points above what the party split will be.

All of the figures I’ve cited are from a source publicly available. The Media know these figures, the left knows these figures and the Networks know these figures.

Yet they are still using polls with huge democrat samples and representing them as real.

I don’t know what that tells you but I sure know what it tells me

“Ride right through them, they’re demoralized as hell”!

The election of Barack Obama was the biggest con ever perpetuated on the US Public, the polls the media is reporting these days is a close second.

Update: CBS belowns itself, D+13 REALLY?

Update: I stayed up late tweeting this out and had this tweet from a leftist named Mr. D who made this incredible assertion:

@datechguyblog I love it..most polls skew conservative but to hear GOP bigots cry over polls is hilarious. #tcot #Wow

— Mr D (@Blackjedi50) September 17, 2012

Being not only fair-minded but also sane and rational I asked for some data, the exchange was….interesting

@datechguyblog Proving the sky is blue, to a bigot, isn’t worth a cold fart in hell. #tcot

— Mr D (@Blackjedi50) September 17, 2012

Oh I’m now not only a bigot but it’s as clear as proving the sky is blue so who needs data?

@datechguyblog I’ve said it. The end. #tcot

— Mr D (@Blackjedi50) September 17, 2012

Hey I can take a photo of the sky to prove it’s blue, if all these polls skew GOP you would think you can produce at least 1 to show it, but not this is the left I’ve said it so it MUST be true.

Talk about hide the decline.

Update 3: Great example of my point in the PPP Virgina Poll. Poll claims Obama up 50-45. Poll Sample +3 Dem

Actual registration split in Virginia? GOP +3

Update 4: I should stress that none of these figures are an argument to be complacent, to not make the calls, to not engage and to not fight for every vote out there. The registration trends are in our favor but apathy is fatal. Be cocky but not lazy.

Update 5: Instalanche Thanks Glenn & Powerline picks today, thanks guys.

Update bottom: One more thing. The MSM will pay Politico & the Morning Joe people to put out this stuff, my stuff is only possible because of you, any help is appreciated



5 posted on 09/18/2012 9:15:55 AM PDT by Izzy Dunne (Hello, I'm a TAGLINE virus. Please help me spread by copying me into YOUR tag line.)
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To: Yashcheritsiy

Don’t pay attention to any polls until the second week of October. That is the earliest that the samples will reflect the population. The polling organizations all want somewhat accurate results going into the election even though they skew way left during the 10 1/2 months leading up to this point.

Carter led Reagan in 1980 until October. Reagan won in a landslide and I pray that Romney does the same.


6 posted on 09/18/2012 9:16:57 AM PDT by kevinm13 (Tim Geithner is a tax cheat. Manmade "Global Warming" is a HOAX!)
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To: Yashcheritsiy

Please post the complete link. The link you provided above is broken.


7 posted on 09/18/2012 9:17:21 AM PDT by SeekAndFind (bOTRT)
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To: Yashcheritsiy
This is interesting because last night on Hannity, Dick Morris began to walk back his Romney landslide prediction precisely because the Gallup poll showed a surge in Democrat party affiliation.
8 posted on 09/18/2012 9:18:53 AM PDT by attyatlaw001
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To: Yashcheritsiy

Very interesting take on how to read the polls.


9 posted on 09/18/2012 9:19:44 AM PDT by CaptainK (...please make it stop. Shake a can of pennies at it.)
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To: tickedoffnow

It hasn’t had time to sink in yet and be spun through the MSM. Give it two more days and I’ll trust the accuracy. If this number holds, we’re in very good shape.

I’m not even turning on Fox today, until Cavuto. Don’t want to hear Chris Hahn spewing his sewage, nor Shepherd Smith putting his own subtle spin on Romney’s ‘intolerance’ of moochers.


10 posted on 09/18/2012 9:19:54 AM PDT by Viennacon
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To: SeekAndFind
http://datechguyblog.com/2012/09/17/demoralized-as-hell-the-poll-the-media-isnt-talking-about-edition
11 posted on 09/18/2012 9:20:49 AM PDT by Yashcheritsiy (You can wish in one hand and spit in the other and see which gets filled first.)
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To: attyatlaw001

This post is relying on Rasmussen numbers, which are generally more accurate than Gallup’s.


12 posted on 09/18/2012 9:22:58 AM PDT by Yashcheritsiy (You can wish in one hand and spit in the other and see which gets filled first.)
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To: Yashcheritsiy

“I imagine that the election result this year will range from parity to a D-2 advantage. Assuming Romney wins the independents, as most polls show him doing, a D-2 electorate would lead to a Romney victory. Parity would be a Reagan 1980 landslide.” ...Donald R McClary (The American Catholic)


13 posted on 09/18/2012 9:31:27 AM PDT by SumProVita
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If there ever was an election that shows people how we all are living in a kabuki theater bubble where the media simply shapes the perception..or attempts to..this is it.

Luckily a lot of people read drudge and don’t get their information from the bubble anymore.

Also if they make it look like Obama is going to win, then some of the Obots might stay home....but I suppose they want to deflate the anti Obama people too.

Thing is, I think even if people are down, they are still going to go vote against Obama if they are so inclined.


14 posted on 09/18/2012 9:42:43 AM PDT by Crimson Elephant
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To: attyatlaw001

Gallup is being throttled by the Regime, though.


15 posted on 09/18/2012 9:45:23 AM PDT by Emperor Palpatine ("On the ascent of Olympus, what's a botched bar or two?" -Artur Schnabel)
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To: Yashcheritsiy

Thanks for the complete link. That’s better.


16 posted on 09/18/2012 9:51:34 AM PDT by SeekAndFind (bOTRT)
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To: tickedoffnow

Ha—that’s great!


17 posted on 09/18/2012 9:57:47 AM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: Yashcheritsiy

Amazing! Yet the pollsters continue to poll more Democrats than Republicans.


18 posted on 09/18/2012 10:34:11 AM PDT by popdonnelly (The first priority is get Obama out of the White House.)
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To: tickedoffnow

Yahoo finance is always more conservative. The people collecting welfare are not surfing yahoo finance.


19 posted on 09/18/2012 10:53:49 AM PDT by douginthearmy
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To: Izzy Dunne

Thanks for posting. I may copy/paste in other places. God bless.


20 posted on 09/19/2012 1:45:33 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: Yashcheritsiy

Ping for later


21 posted on 09/20/2012 2:11:36 PM PDT by Tennessean4Bush (An optimist believes we live in the best of all possible worlds. A pessimist fears this is true.)
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