Posted on 09/21/2012 5:28:04 PM PDT by Peter ODonnell
What happens to the presidential election if Israel attacks Iran, and/or if Syria boils over into war between Syria and Israel?
Obama has signalled that he is at most cool to the idea of a pre-emptive strike on Iran before the election. Romney has indicated strong approval.
Here's how I think it plays out ... how about you?
If Israel concludes a successful strike and there is not very much immediate follow-up from Iran or surrogates, before election day, then I think it tends to have zero effect on the election outcome.
If the aftermath of an Israeli strike is chaotic, with major Iranian counter-attacks, some on U.S. targets, then Obama would look weak if he did not respond with greater force, but might be able to cash in on the opportunity if he does in fact permit major counter-strikes. So in that case, the effect on the election depends on Obama's response.
If on the other hand the aftermath is worse than chaotic, let's say another event on the scale of 9-11 or massive attacks on Israel, then the election could be plunged into chaose with the economy shoved off stage as the number one issue, and possibly even something like a state of emergency being declared.
Conspiracy theories would start to circulate about who did what and for what reason.
So, what is Netanyahu likely to be thinking? If I were him, I might be tempted to wait and see if Romney wins before launching this long-expected strike. The lateness in terms of good flying weather is a concern although much of this would be done entirely by high-tech systems not requiring visual sightings. The strategic balance is shifting with every month that Iran can use to develop its weapons, but two months might not be a fatal delay.
The big unknown is Syria. Netanyahu has to factor in how events would likely unfold in Syria if there were an attack on Iran. Would that prompt Iran to meddle more directly? Would there be an attack on a nation-state level or would it remain at the Hezbollah-Hamas level?
Both candidates for president must be nervous about this situation. It could help one and hurt the other. But it would introduce a new question not yet being asked very much, who would you rather have in the White House in this developing situation? I'm not an American resident but I get the sense that Obama's support on foreign policy is vulnerable after Libya and unrest in Egypt, and that apologizing on state media in Pakistan will only seem presidential to a few of his most ardent supporters.
I am very concerned for the safety of Israel in this growing climate of anarchy and unrest spreading around the region, and the image comes forth of Nero fiddling while Rome (or Damascus) burns. Add to that any sort of attack on Iran, and the uncertainty grows exponentially.
If Israel attacks, they will stop nuclear destruction of Israel by Iran. However the tension with the Arab (read Muslim) League will go sky high. The Palestinians and Hezbulla from Lebanon will begin shelling in earnest, things will get out of hand and all the Muslim neighbors will join the fray and attack Israel with chemical and biological weaponry. Israel upon seeing the incoming missiles may take a chance that they are not WMD, or not, but in the end, will have one choice, win the war now, or be eradicated in Genocide.
At that point I suspect the Samson option will be invoked and the middle east will have a full scale nuclear war. In the end, oil production will be reduced to the point that the world will loose most food production for a year or so. It will trigger a world wide famine.
The Election? Who cares. After the EBT’s no longer buy dinner, the democrats will linch Obama and eat him. Never feed a slothful man, they have a poisonous bite.
Reports are that bambi has transfered MOPs to Israel, under the condition that Bebe not strike till after the election.
Hold on to your hats, the likely scenario is if bambi wins, Bebe explodes 6-8 nukes high altitude over iran, destroying its electronic infrastructure, meaning no missiles, and an easy 1-2 week degradation of the nuke program using larger transport aircraft, with fighter support. This scenario, will see similar destruction to Lebanon and syria. Gaza gets recouped, and after Lebanon is 7th centuried it likely is reoccupied.
Willard wins.
We have in the last 6 months moved enormous assets to theater. Israel will not attack, we will. the reduction will take 3 hours, no nukes. The MOPs will be the same bombs flying from israel on B2b’s. With 20 arleigh burkes now in theater, missiles are much less of an issue, but 1 chem bomb and the jews remove that country.
So likely iran loses its seat of religious power and all military bases. Lebanon may or may not understand that suicide by cop is not good. Syria will attach and will be terminated.
I don’t know, I doubt he would make a play that big, especially since Iran is under the umbrella of his friend Putin. He won’t do anything in Syria because of them, and so it only stands to reason he won’t do anything to Iran either. Obama may have schemed his way to the forefront of the American commies, but there’s no way the Russians are taking orders from this upstart.
The Dims will call for martial law and federal control over all economic matters
I think you’re forgetting one huge variable, and that is the Russians. Iran is their female dog, so to speak, and Obama doesn’t have the spine to cross that line, at least not yet.
I also doubt the Russians would willingly go along with any plan to give control over Iran to the MB/AQ alliance, since they have been aiding Syria for months to prevent exactly that. The Russians probably agreed to let Obama set the MB loose on a few regimes, but they will not want to see them grow too powerful, because the Russians understand the pragmatic benefit of having a divided Muslim world which they manipulate to their benefit. A caliphate would not be so responsive to Russian influence, and might go rogue altogether.
My Thoughts:
Any attack on Iran will take weeks, not a day or two. Iran has extensive air defenses that must be destroyed before the nuclear facilities can be thoroughly bombed to rubble. The Israeli attack will look much like the month long air attacks preceding Desert Storm in Iraq. It is bound to affect the election. How, I cannot say. Too many things can happen.
I don't believe Bibi can wait & hope for Romney. If Obama is reelected, Israel is doomed. If Bibi waits for Romney's election, Romney will INSIST on several months to educate himself on the situation & prepare the US people for war. I don't think Bibi has the time to wait, & no guarantee that Romney will aggressively stop the Iranian nuclear program.
I'm guessing Bibi will attack before the election. Before the election, Obama is vulnerable, & therefore is limited in his criticism of Israel. After his reelection, he will be invulnerable. If Romney is elected, an attack before the election leaves him blameless for any consequences, but an attack after Romney is elected makes it HIS WAR in the eyes of the Left & the MSM. Not the best way for Bibi to start relations with a new President.
It is highly likely that when Israel attacks, Iran will lash out at the Gulf Shipping & the US fleet. This will force Obama into the war, with his generals/admirals insisting that, to protect the Gulf & the fleet, the Iranian navy & missile assets must be destroyed. Naturally, Iranian air defenses must be dealt with first, so Israel gets a big help there.
This is where the US politics comes into play. Obama, the un-warrior, will be in a sandbox he is totally unfamiliar with. His forces are cramped in the tight Gulf, requiring right decisions, delivered quickly, to avert disaster. There will be little room for mistakes, or indecision. Ships can sink quicker than a round of golf. Situations will confront him for which he has zero experience & WH advisers that can only say, "Blame Bush".
I would be very surprised if Obama came out of this war a hero. He doesn't have it in him.
Syria is irrelevant in this conflict. Syria itself is in a civil war, with no assets to send against Israel, & the last thing Assad needs is Israeli jets/missiles over Damascus. Iran will be too preoccupied with fending off Israeli attack over Iran to send significant assets to Syria to attack Israel.
Hezbollah is the main local threat to Israel, & this will be the vehicle Iran will use to attack Israel locally. Hezbollah has thousands of missiles to fire at Israel. Lebanon will pay a heavy price for this. I believe Israel will invade Lebanon & destroy Hezbollah & much of Lebanon.
Hamas will do no more than protest & fire some rockets. I doubt they want to see Israeli tanks, knowing that Israel is on full alert & the Israeli Army is eager to kick some butt.
That's the way I see it. I expect to hear of the Israeli attack any day now. It's probably just a question of the weather.
Very little. It's not like it isn't expected at this point. Now if the Iranians manage to do something in response that we aren't prepared for, that could change the election dynamic.
I would not put it past Obama to order the intercept of an Israeli air strike. They would have to fly through U.S. fighter and missile coverage.
I believe an Israeli attack will be the catalyst for regime change in Iran.
The Israelis know that regime change is the best long term solution to Iranian aggression. Many of their bombs & missiles will be directed at the regime, with some probable successes. There may very well be hit teams on the ground in Iran to start the war.
There is little doubt that many Iranians will rally to their country when Israel attacks, but there will be many more who realize the regime brought this upon them with the many threats to Israel. The blind patriots would never be a part of a revolution, but the rest might see their opportunity.
Israel can improve this opportunity by bombing the power infrastructure, turn the lights out in the cities, leaving the people to stew in the dark & heat. Angry people lash out, & since Israel is a long way away, that lashing out is likely to fall on the regime for failing to protect the people & destroy the evil Israel.
A plausible scenario, but just one thing. Killing AJ changes nothing. He’s a hand-puppet; there are plenty more where he came from — or nobody at all. Once a shooting war starts, the Twelver Ali Khamenei will become more visible.
As a dual citizen of both the U.S. and Israel, and someone who lived in Israel for a decade, and had a close relationship with several inside the Military & Political machine, I can tell you that Israel takes this very seriously. While they have to play both political sides to their advantage, they will not sit around and be mass murdered like the European Jews were in WWll.
They will and must act in their own best interest.
Obama is no more a friend to Israel than is Mahmud Ahmadinejad (I refer to him as Mad Mood I Wanna Jihad) and other than a few idiots like Ehud Barak, no one inside Israel is fooled by him.
The fact is that most inside Israeli intelligence would rather dis-empower Iran through subterfuge. Things like computer Trojans and selected assignations, but the U.S. is pushing Israel into a position of having to take military action.
So why would Obama want to take action against Iran? Why would he have wanted to kill Bin Laden, or Gaddafi, or foment rebellion against Mubarak when we all know Obama is a Muslim?
Obama has strategically removed from power all of the obstacles to Islamic unification! That’s why. The only thing all of these leaders hated more than Israel was each other. It is also no secret that they all had ambitions to be the leaders of the Muslim world, including the secular Mubarak. He wanted to restore Egypt to its glory days.
Obama is moved by the same spirit of anti-Christ that all of these leaders are and Satan has created a housed divided against itself. Both Obama and Ahmadinejad are working towards the same goal, Islamic domination over the world. They both know too that according to Islamic tradition the 12th Imam comes when the world is in complete chaos and feel it is their role to bring this Chaos about.
I find it interesting to see the part they are playing in fulfilling the biblical prophecies of the coming end time wars. First the war in Psalm 83, which I believe is knocking on our door, followed by the war of Gog and Magog.
So how will this play out in U.S. politics?
I believe that Obama will make it look like it is not his desire to go to war, but that he will blame Israel for starting a war that America is forced to join. Of course just like saying the attack in Libya was a spontaneous reaction to some obscure movie, blaming Israel will also be a lie. Note that the U.S. , England, Russia, France and others have been building up their ships in the straits of Hormuz for months, and in fact the U.S. has built several bases in the region including inside Israel (I have personally seen this base even though there is no mention of it in the U.S.) They are fully aware of what is coming.
He will use this war, along with a financial crisis that will be the result of the recent unlimited, unending QE3 disaster unleashed by the Federal Reserve this month, to declare an emergency and invoke the Executive Privilege allowing him to suspend the constitution and take dictatorial powers over the U.S. We could very well never have an election.
Remember too that even if we do elect Romney, Obama will still have these powers within his grasp until January and could evoke this privilege even up to the day of Romney’s inauguration.
While this may seem far fetched to many, the power to take dictatorial control by the President has been put into place piece by piece since JFK. Obama put the icing on the cake last March by signing Executive Order 13603 giving him complete control over every aspect of our lives, such as food, transportation, the Internet and all communications including radio, TV, cable, and shortwave.
You can find all of his Executive Orders here: http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/executive-orders/2012.html
Obama is just the guy to do this. However I don’t know if he wants it, he may just want to go live in the $35 million Hawaii mansion his friends are in the process of buying for him. He could smoke pot, do coke, and play with his boyfriends while Michelle goes shopping. He is clearly a Narcissist however as well as controlled by his communist handlers inside the U.S. and may not have a choice in the matter. (Forgive me if that all sounded a little personal. I just can’t stand the fact that this guy is getting away with all of this stuff.)
Anyway, so He could effectively take over as dictator and the country would be loathe to do anything about it. We can and probably will riot, but in the end the government will likely win.
If that option isn’t enacted, then another factor to consider is that historically the American people do not like to change governments when in the midst of a war. If a war starts prior to the election, it could swing things Obama’s way regardless of what people think of him otherwise.
Netanyahu has been making public statements clearly showing his preference for Romney. He may calculate that an attack on Iran would secure the re-election of Obama and therefore hold off knowing that Romney has made his preference for Israel well known, and in fact would take a much stronger stance on Iran that could mean a war isn’t necessary. If for instance the U.S. would cooperate with Israel in cyber attacks and SEAL missions inside Iran in addition to the missions run by the Mossad. A friendly Romney may also have the guts to finally support the resistance movement inside Iran that is more than ready to remove the radical Islamic Clerics from power.
If the U.S. would also take a strong stance that would put Iran back in check, Israel would be free to deal with Syria and the result could be a much more stable Syria and Lebanon if they were taken out of the power axis of Iran.
Whether we should have ever gone into Iraq is a matter of debate. We did it because Saddam Hussein was about to strike a deal with Luke Oil, giving Russia control of Iraqi oil fields. The U.S. couldn’t allow that to happen.
By establishing ourselves in Iraq we effectively had a base from which to operate and keep a lid on Islamic shenanigans. However since Obama took power, our withdrawal from Iraq left a vacuum which Iran could rush in and fill. Today they are flying over Iraqi airspace which means they could deliver an airborne nuclear tipped missile at Israel from within Iraqi territory.
The reality is that I don’t think Israel can wait, or that the U.S. is going to do anything to stop what is quickly pointing to a massive war in the middle east.
QE3 WILL collapse the U.S. economy, possibly as soon as the end of September, or in October. At the outside it is likely by April.
Only if Romney can be elected and take immediate action in several areas such as an immediate end to QE3, giving states waivers on Obama care while the congress works to repeal it, and enacting new energy policy all on the first day do we have any hope of averting a crisis.
With all of that said, I believe that Obama is God’s judgment on America, as well as the Church on whom the blame lies for sleeping with the world.
If we want anything to be forestalled, we need national repentance and intercessory prayer from now until election day, and then beyond.
Barring that, I believe our goose is cooked and we had better prepare to have our heads chopped off as we will be living in a country controlled by Sharia Law. That is Obama’s dream for transforming America.
God Help Us!
Tom Cooper
It’s going to be a mess no matter what Israel does and when they do it. Obama has laid the table over there with radical Muslim disaster on all sides and more coming.
I agree that Obama will likely use our military against Israel if he gets re-elected. He wants to strong arm them out of the territory he’s laid out for “Palestine.”
I would not want to live in the middle of that Muslim hell hole. Poor Israel. Pray for them! Obama has screwed them...and our troops, too.
Any conflict will shoot the gas price up, and that’s a tax on everyone who drives a vehicle, flies in planes, or buys things at stores. No matter who Obama tries to blame, people will pin it on him.
So any conflict will hurt Obama.
I agree that gas price is a major factor in the US and can affect the election. However, an Israeli strike would cause a price increase, and obama (and/or his surrogates) can blame it on the "evil joooos." And they will.
This would actually help obama. Today many people blame obama for high gas prices. An Israeli strike would allow obama to deflect much of that blame away from himself.
An opportunity.
Sees Benjamin Netanyahu.
If the job were done right there would be no Iran capable of anything for a longish time. If Israel does the deed alone it will surely involve nukes and an EMP will likely be the opening shot. Iran could well have its nuclear installations shield against EMP but has to connect them to power sources which would be vulnerable. And a nuclear development structure intact and powered is not worth a hell of a lot if the power generation ability of the country is destroyed and most of the electrical,electronic components of the country cease to work due to EMP.
or Islamic, which may be the same thing.
Or maybe we will begin to make some other moves that will accomplish the necessary job without an actual strike.
Or he is setting up a surprise by setting forth assurances he will not attack and reasons not to attack.
Invoke. Other than the choice of wore, I think this is correct and I fear it.
Yes, that thought crossed my mind as well. It could also signal that Obamugabe may be making some secret “back room” assurances to him.
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