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Battleground Ohio Poll. Obama with a Razor Thin Lead (Obama 45.2% Romney 44.3%)
Gravis Polling ^ | 09/24/2012 | Staff

Posted on 09/25/2012 12:58:11 PM PDT by nhwingut

Gravis Marketing has conducted a poll of likely voters in the State of Ohio. The questions covered the presidential and senate elections. We show President Barack Obama at 45.2% and Governor Mitt Romney at 44.3%. The Senate race shows Senator Brown with a 3.9% lead over Josh Mandel.

Multiple Ohio polls have been released in the last week, all showing President Obama with a lead. The lead ranges anywhere from 7% with Fox News, while Rasmussen and ARG have Obama with a 1% point lead, similar to the poll that we conducted.

One thing that stood out in this poll: Obama has a 12% lead in personal likability over Romney. The upcoming debates could be a deciding factor in the race.

Gravis Marketing Polls are conducted through automated phone calls, the poll is of likely voters in the state of Ohio. Gravis Marketing is a non-partisan company, located in Winter Springs, Florida.


TOPICS: Politics
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; 2012swingstates; 2012tossups; oh2012; ohio; polls
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1 posted on 09/25/2012 12:58:20 PM PDT by nhwingut
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To: nhwingut; LS; Ravi; TonyInOhio; MNJohnnie

Poll breakdown

D - 41.4 %
R - 31.1 %
I - 27.5 %


2 posted on 09/25/2012 1:02:50 PM PDT by Perdogg
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To: nhwingut

I’m liking this! Obama only polling 45% 40 days out spells epic disaster!!


3 posted on 09/25/2012 1:02:50 PM PDT by tatown ( FUMD, FUAC, and FUGB)
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To: nhwingut

Ten percent more Democrats (41%) than Republicans. LoL


4 posted on 09/25/2012 1:04:46 PM PDT by arrogantsob (The Disaster MUST Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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To: tatown

Did you see that the poll was over sample of Ds of 10.3% and 43% of the responders were 50 and over?


5 posted on 09/25/2012 1:04:55 PM PDT by Perdogg
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To: nhwingut

And they oversampled Commies by 10 points..Romney is winning Ohio, maybe Dick Morris isn’t much of a goofball after all..these polls are all going on the 2008 model, its NOT going to be like that this time around


6 posted on 09/25/2012 1:05:16 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: Sarah Barracuda

Romney must be raking in the indies in OH.


7 posted on 09/25/2012 1:08:00 PM PDT by Perdogg
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To: nhwingut
That isn't a lead. If you drill down to the details, it was 594 likely voters. And the margin of error is 4.3%.

That means the results of this poll are statistically insignificant.

8 posted on 09/25/2012 1:08:18 PM PDT by justlurking (The only remedy for a bad guy with a gun is a good WOMAN (Sgt. Kimberly Munley) with a gun)
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To: Sarah Barracuda

Except even 2008 wasn’t D+10, it was D+8.


9 posted on 09/25/2012 1:08:21 PM PDT by tatown ( FUMD, FUAC, and FUGB)
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To: Perdogg

2008 had D+8 and > 45 years old = 56%.


10 posted on 09/25/2012 1:09:56 PM PDT by tatown ( FUMD, FUAC, and FUGB)
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To: Perdogg

What is the state break down in comparison?


11 posted on 09/25/2012 1:09:59 PM PDT by hoosiermama (Obama: "Born in Kenya" Lying now or then.)
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To: tatown

My thoughts exactly, tatown.


12 posted on 09/25/2012 1:10:42 PM PDT by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obama)
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To: nhwingut
Oh, I forgot: the Other/Unsure is 10.4%.

Does someone want to explain to me how this means Obama is in the lead, razor-thin or otherwise?

13 posted on 09/25/2012 1:10:56 PM PDT by justlurking (The only remedy for a bad guy with a gun is a good WOMAN (Sgt. Kimberly Munley) with a gun)
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To: tatown

I have heard +5 Dem


14 posted on 09/25/2012 1:11:23 PM PDT by Perdogg
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To: nhwingut

Well...
This certainly doesn’t fit the Mainstream Media/MediaMatters-approved narrative, now does it!


15 posted on 09/25/2012 1:11:23 PM PDT by tcrlaf (Election 2012: THE RAPTURE OF THE DEMOCRATS)
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To: Perdogg

Independent voters already made up their mind, if they were going to vote for Obama they would have done it already. The ones who are on the fence are the ones that just need to learn a little more about Romney(At the debates) before they officially become Romney supporters. Undecided voters will also go for Romney because they have already seen the disaster which is the Obama Presidency


16 posted on 09/25/2012 1:12:16 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: hoosiermama

Polling experts claim a +5 Democrat advantage in Ohio. No way you can justify a +10 sample in Ohio. Basically this means Obama is behind in Ohio


17 posted on 09/25/2012 1:12:42 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: Perdogg

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#OHP00p1


18 posted on 09/25/2012 1:12:51 PM PDT by tatown ( FUMD, FUAC, and FUGB)
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To: nhwingut

Ohhh what happened to that huge Obama lead in Ohio?


19 posted on 09/25/2012 1:14:32 PM PDT by Williams (No Obama)
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To: justlurking
Not only that, but the reporting is downright silly.

They have a 95% confidence interval on +/-4.3 percent and they report 3 SIGNIFICANT DIGITS? Seriously? Did no one ever teach these clowns about significant digits. Wow.

20 posted on 09/25/2012 1:16:33 PM PDT by FredZarguna (Haven't seen colors like that since right after my cataract operation.)
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To: Perdogg

10 point oversampling and this is all they can get!!!
Haha. We’re going to win this.


21 posted on 09/25/2012 1:17:15 PM PDT by Viennacon
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To: MNJohnnie
Thanks. Suspected as much, but didn't have the details.
OTOH I'd rather they poll us behind and we get in gear, then to have them tell us we're ahead only to be defeated.
22 posted on 09/25/2012 1:17:19 PM PDT by hoosiermama (Obama: "Born in Kenya" Lying now or then.)
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To: Perdogg

Romney’s pollster claims it is a D+5 in Ohio. According to story on Buzz Feed. And I think he’s being conservative.

In 2010 it was R+1. I could see it being D+3.


23 posted on 09/25/2012 1:17:58 PM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: nhwingut

Graves are opening.


24 posted on 09/25/2012 1:18:38 PM PDT by bmwcyle (Corollary - Electing the same person over and over and expecting a different outcome is insanity)
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To: Sarah Barracuda

“these polls are all going on the 2008 model, its NOT going to be like that this time around”

Yup, we are 40 days out and there seems to be no where near the enthusiasm for Bozo as in 2008. We have talked at length, on several threads, about the significant lack of bumper stickers and signs that are out there for either candidate across the country. The difference is conservatives are usually not the bumper sticker/yard sign type of person. While, the Librats definitely are! In 2008 their Bozo stickers and signs were everywhere. This time around you would not even know there is a presidential election coming up in 40 days. Although obviously unscientific, but probably not any worse than a lot of the other polls we see, the nationwide bumper sticker/yard sign unofficial poll is not looking good for the Fresh Prince of Bill Ayers!


25 posted on 09/25/2012 1:21:36 PM PDT by Batman11 (We came for the chicken sandwiches and a Sweet Tea Party broke out!)
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To: Batman11

I’m in LA(As you know :-) and I have yet to see ONE Obama sign here..in 2008 I saw a pretty decent amount. I know that the majority of my neighbors are Dems since when I go vote and have to sign my name they have the party affiliation next to the person’s name so I see that about 80 percent of them are Dems, but not one of them has an Obama sign. I did see one about a month ago at a house near my local mall, well I have gone passed that house now for two straight weeks and the sign is GONE..so maybe that person grew a brain and realized Obama sucks..as far as Obama stickers on cars goes, I still see them but maybe 1 car out of 30 will have one, not like in 2008 where it seemed they were everywhere. Who knows maybe that is why Obama is playing non stop ads here


26 posted on 09/25/2012 1:25:31 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: Batman11

I live in a pocket of the NH Seacoast which is fairly independent, but leans left (with UNH in next town over). In 2008 it was all Obama, every freakin lawn sign, bumper stickers, etc.

I see no Obama signs or stickers anywhere this time around. I don’t see Romney signs either, but that is fairly normal of NH Republicans/conservatives - live and let live, whereas the NH moonbats are loud.


27 posted on 09/25/2012 1:26:01 PM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: justlurking

But that sampling of D +10.3 is preposterous.


28 posted on 09/25/2012 1:26:03 PM PDT by kevao (Is your ocean any lower than it was four years ago?)
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To: MNJohnnie

This girl I follow on facebook(I had no idea she was an idiot Dem til way after I added her) well she lives in Ohio and I think she’s worried, I see post after post from her begging people in Ohio to vote for Obama..she lives in Mason, Ohio..she wouldn’t be begging if Obama were leading, but of course, Dems are always begging for free stuff so its not surprising


29 posted on 09/25/2012 1:27:09 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: Perdogg

How did you find the breakdown


30 posted on 09/25/2012 1:31:06 PM PDT by zt1053
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To: nhwingut

In fact I re-calculated the Washington Post poll a much more realistic party ID breakdown on elections day, 35% Republicans, 35% democrats, and 30% Independents... The results would be Obama 48.5%, Romney 47.7%... if you assign the undecided in 2:1 to Romney then Romney wins this Washington Post Ohio poll... So absolutely not, Obama is not winning Ohio and certainly not by these insane margin the biased media polls are showing...


31 posted on 09/25/2012 1:31:12 PM PDT by Conservative12345
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To: zt1053

I went to the link.


32 posted on 09/25/2012 1:32:02 PM PDT by Perdogg
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To: nhwingut

Here, key state voters, eat this up:

http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=Lvl5Gan69Wo


33 posted on 09/25/2012 1:32:14 PM PDT by IbJensen (Since light travels faster than sound, some people appear bright until you hear them speak.)
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To: Sarah Barracuda

I think you are right. I think the Obama camp knows they are in trouble and are trying to do everything they can to depress GOP turn out. It is the only hope they have left.

I have to laugh at some of the people around here who still believe everything the media tells them. After seeing the Media doing everything they could to sabotage the GOP in the 2000, 2004 and 2008 elections some “conservatives” somehow have decided that the “media” has magically changed to being honest and objective


34 posted on 09/25/2012 1:32:44 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: Perdogg

LOL so R and R is up by 5.


35 posted on 09/25/2012 1:33:41 PM PDT by cableguymn (peace through strength. if they don't like you at least they will fear you.)
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To: Sarah Barracuda; nhwingut

Sarah & NH, yup, that is what I am seeing here in the far northern suburbs of NYC and all the up through Connecticut and Massachusetts. In 2008 this corridor had Bozo stuff everywhere. It’s almost as if the Librats are afraid to admit their Obolove, or they don’t want to admit how stupid they were to vote for him the first time! I think it is fascinating and good news for R&R!


36 posted on 09/25/2012 1:33:43 PM PDT by Batman11 (We came for the chicken sandwiches and a Sweet Tea Party broke out!)
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To: nhwingut

Turnout will bury him.


37 posted on 09/25/2012 1:34:22 PM PDT by Gaffer
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To: Sarah Barracuda

Obama beat McCain by 3.5 in Ohio. WaPo has Obama +5 with a +9 Dem advantage. This poll has them basically even with a +10 Dem advantage. What gives? Media trying to control the narrative?


38 posted on 09/25/2012 1:34:44 PM PDT by Tea Party Terrorist (Your tattoo looks stupid.)
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To: arrogantsob

“Ten percent more Democrats (41%) than Republicans. LoL”

Actually it figures 33% more Democrats than Repubicans. I may be wrong but I believe I read a couple days ago that Repulicans have a slight edge in voter registration in Ohio.


39 posted on 09/25/2012 1:37:39 PM PDT by Okieshooter
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To: FredZarguna

Did you see the trash called a “Poll” from the WashPost that CNN is pimping, showing Obama UP 8 in Ohio??

1101 ALL ADULTS, with 759 likely voters, based on 2008 turnout numbers.

And you had to click FOUR TIMES to find the methodology!!

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/09/25/fresh-polls-give-obama-the-advantage-in-four-crucial-battlegrounds/


40 posted on 09/25/2012 1:39:00 PM PDT by tcrlaf (Election 2012: THE RAPTURE OF THE DEMOCRATS)
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To: Perdogg
Romney must be raking in the indies in OH.

I think that is the real story in this poll.....simple math would tell you that Romney is up huge with independents (assuming most dems vote zero and most repubs vote Romney) Romney has to be taking independents 3:1 - This is surely what Romney is seeing in his internals. That factored with the Dem oversample by at least 5 is BIG TROUBLE for Larry Sinclair's boyfriend.
41 posted on 09/25/2012 1:40:06 PM PDT by AdamBomb
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To: Sarah Barracuda

I’ve removed every idiot left winger, that has the gall to post anything pro-Obama, from my friend list (even family). It really has made life more pleasant.


42 posted on 09/25/2012 1:40:43 PM PDT by tatown ( FUMD, FUAC, and FUGB)
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To: cableguymn
"LOL so R and R is up by 5."

at least
43 posted on 09/25/2012 1:41:40 PM PDT by AdamBomb
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To: MNJohnnie

Unfortunately there are many people who still believes everything they hear from the media. Even though its so beyond obvious that the media is in the tank for Obama they will still believe the polls that they spew. I dont believe ANY of it, the ONLY poll that matters is on election day, as long as there isn’t any voter fraud and dead people and illegal aliens voting Romney will win.
The Dems always preach about how everyone has the right to vote yet they are trying to make Republicans feel so depressed about voting, that its a total waste of time, so they wont go vote, its disgusting but not surprising. It worked for them in 2008 so they are trying the same BS tactic again


44 posted on 09/25/2012 1:50:42 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: AdamBomb

Anyone know what kind of ballot security they have in Ohio? I’m concerned about all these absentee ballots floating out there, either going “missing” or boxes of them being “found.”


45 posted on 09/25/2012 1:51:38 PM PDT by mrs9x
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To: tatown

I already got rid of one pro obama whack job from facebook, she was a real nut, but this girl that I have now on facebook, she seems like a nice girl but is really far beyond saving as far as being in the tank for Obama, other than her she is the only left winger on facebook that I follow, everyone else is Conservative, I make sure of that now. I can’t stand seeing idiots swoon over that marxist jackass


46 posted on 09/25/2012 1:53:08 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: Sarah Barracuda

Not only do I unfriend them I go a step further and block them. It is as if they do not even exist. LOL


47 posted on 09/25/2012 1:58:50 PM PDT by tatown ( FUMD, FUAC, and FUGB)
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To: Batman11

We counted yard sign sites in a three county area here in Southern Indiana. Twenty R sites only two for the D. Saw one site for D governor candidate/ many for Mike Pence for same position. Lots of R/R signs and several. Free America/FIRE OBAMA!


48 posted on 09/25/2012 1:58:50 PM PDT by hoosiermama (Obama: "Born in Kenya" Lying now or then.)
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To: nhwingut

49 posted on 09/25/2012 1:59:48 PM PDT by red-dawg (If muslims are exempt from Obamacare, then my name is Mohammed Suks.)
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To: justlurking
That means the results of this poll are statistically insignificant.

Not at all. It means that if you conducted the poll 100 times with 100 different samples Romney would get 40% to 48.6% of those polled 95 times and Obama would get between 41.3 and 49.6% of those polled 95 times out of 100. That's all any poll means.

What polls can not do is predict turnout. That's the shit in the meatloaf.

50 posted on 09/25/2012 2:01:44 PM PDT by jwalsh07 (.)
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