Skip to comments.Battleground Ohio Poll. Obama with a Razor Thin Lead (Obama 45.2% Romney 44.3%)
Posted on 09/25/2012 12:58:11 PM PDT by nhwingut
Gravis Marketing has conducted a poll of likely voters in the State of Ohio. The questions covered the presidential and senate elections. We show President Barack Obama at 45.2% and Governor Mitt Romney at 44.3%. The Senate race shows Senator Brown with a 3.9% lead over Josh Mandel.
Multiple Ohio polls have been released in the last week, all showing President Obama with a lead. The lead ranges anywhere from 7% with Fox News, while Rasmussen and ARG have Obama with a 1% point lead, similar to the poll that we conducted.
One thing that stood out in this poll: Obama has a 12% lead in personal likability over Romney. The upcoming debates could be a deciding factor in the race.
Gravis Marketing Polls are conducted through automated phone calls, the poll is of likely voters in the state of Ohio. Gravis Marketing is a non-partisan company, located in Winter Springs, Florida.
D - 41.4 %
R - 31.1 %
I - 27.5 %
I’m liking this! Obama only polling 45% 40 days out spells epic disaster!!
Ten percent more Democrats (41%) than Republicans. LoL
Did you see that the poll was over sample of Ds of 10.3% and 43% of the responders were 50 and over?
And they oversampled Commies by 10 points..Romney is winning Ohio, maybe Dick Morris isn’t much of a goofball after all..these polls are all going on the 2008 model, its NOT going to be like that this time around
Romney must be raking in the indies in OH.
That means the results of this poll are statistically insignificant.
Except even 2008 wasn’t D+10, it was D+8.
2008 had D+8 and > 45 years old = 56%.
What is the state break down in comparison?
My thoughts exactly, tatown.
Does someone want to explain to me how this means Obama is in the lead, razor-thin or otherwise?
I have heard +5 Dem
This certainly doesn’t fit the Mainstream Media/MediaMatters-approved narrative, now does it!
Independent voters already made up their mind, if they were going to vote for Obama they would have done it already. The ones who are on the fence are the ones that just need to learn a little more about Romney(At the debates) before they officially become Romney supporters. Undecided voters will also go for Romney because they have already seen the disaster which is the Obama Presidency
Polling experts claim a +5 Democrat advantage in Ohio. No way you can justify a +10 sample in Ohio. Basically this means Obama is behind in Ohio
Ohhh what happened to that huge Obama lead in Ohio?
They have a 95% confidence interval on +/-4.3 percent and they report 3 SIGNIFICANT DIGITS? Seriously? Did no one ever teach these clowns about significant digits. Wow.
10 point oversampling and this is all they can get!!!
Haha. We’re going to win this.
Romney’s pollster claims it is a D+5 in Ohio. According to story on Buzz Feed. And I think he’s being conservative.
In 2010 it was R+1. I could see it being D+3.
Graves are opening.
“these polls are all going on the 2008 model, its NOT going to be like that this time around”
Yup, we are 40 days out and there seems to be no where near the enthusiasm for Bozo as in 2008. We have talked at length, on several threads, about the significant lack of bumper stickers and signs that are out there for either candidate across the country. The difference is conservatives are usually not the bumper sticker/yard sign type of person. While, the Librats definitely are! In 2008 their Bozo stickers and signs were everywhere. This time around you would not even know there is a presidential election coming up in 40 days. Although obviously unscientific, but probably not any worse than a lot of the other polls we see, the nationwide bumper sticker/yard sign unofficial poll is not looking good for the Fresh Prince of Bill Ayers!
I’m in LA(As you know :-) and I have yet to see ONE Obama sign here..in 2008 I saw a pretty decent amount. I know that the majority of my neighbors are Dems since when I go vote and have to sign my name they have the party affiliation next to the person’s name so I see that about 80 percent of them are Dems, but not one of them has an Obama sign. I did see one about a month ago at a house near my local mall, well I have gone passed that house now for two straight weeks and the sign is GONE..so maybe that person grew a brain and realized Obama sucks..as far as Obama stickers on cars goes, I still see them but maybe 1 car out of 30 will have one, not like in 2008 where it seemed they were everywhere. Who knows maybe that is why Obama is playing non stop ads here
I live in a pocket of the NH Seacoast which is fairly independent, but leans left (with UNH in next town over). In 2008 it was all Obama, every freakin lawn sign, bumper stickers, etc.
I see no Obama signs or stickers anywhere this time around. I don’t see Romney signs either, but that is fairly normal of NH Republicans/conservatives - live and let live, whereas the NH moonbats are loud.
But that sampling of D +10.3 is preposterous.
This girl I follow on facebook(I had no idea she was an idiot Dem til way after I added her) well she lives in Ohio and I think she’s worried, I see post after post from her begging people in Ohio to vote for Obama..she lives in Mason, Ohio..she wouldn’t be begging if Obama were leading, but of course, Dems are always begging for free stuff so its not surprising
How did you find the breakdown
In fact I re-calculated the Washington Post poll a much more realistic party ID breakdown on elections day, 35% Republicans, 35% democrats, and 30% Independents... The results would be Obama 48.5%, Romney 47.7%... if you assign the undecided in 2:1 to Romney then Romney wins this Washington Post Ohio poll... So absolutely not, Obama is not winning Ohio and certainly not by these insane margin the biased media polls are showing...
I went to the link.
Here, key state voters, eat this up:
I think you are right. I think the Obama camp knows they are in trouble and are trying to do everything they can to depress GOP turn out. It is the only hope they have left.
I have to laugh at some of the people around here who still believe everything the media tells them. After seeing the Media doing everything they could to sabotage the GOP in the 2000, 2004 and 2008 elections some “conservatives” somehow have decided that the “media” has magically changed to being honest and objective
LOL so R and R is up by 5.
Sarah & NH, yup, that is what I am seeing here in the far northern suburbs of NYC and all the up through Connecticut and Massachusetts. In 2008 this corridor had Bozo stuff everywhere. It’s almost as if the Librats are afraid to admit their Obolove, or they don’t want to admit how stupid they were to vote for him the first time! I think it is fascinating and good news for R&R!
Turnout will bury him.
Obama beat McCain by 3.5 in Ohio. WaPo has Obama +5 with a +9 Dem advantage. This poll has them basically even with a +10 Dem advantage. What gives? Media trying to control the narrative?
“Ten percent more Democrats (41%) than Republicans. LoL”
Actually it figures 33% more Democrats than Repubicans. I may be wrong but I believe I read a couple days ago that Repulicans have a slight edge in voter registration in Ohio.
Did you see the trash called a “Poll” from the WashPost that CNN is pimping, showing Obama UP 8 in Ohio??
1101 ALL ADULTS, with 759 likely voters, based on 2008 turnout numbers.
And you had to click FOUR TIMES to find the methodology!!
I’ve removed every idiot left winger, that has the gall to post anything pro-Obama, from my friend list (even family). It really has made life more pleasant.
Unfortunately there are many people who still believes everything they hear from the media. Even though its so beyond obvious that the media is in the tank for Obama they will still believe the polls that they spew. I dont believe ANY of it, the ONLY poll that matters is on election day, as long as there isn’t any voter fraud and dead people and illegal aliens voting Romney will win.
The Dems always preach about how everyone has the right to vote yet they are trying to make Republicans feel so depressed about voting, that its a total waste of time, so they wont go vote, its disgusting but not surprising. It worked for them in 2008 so they are trying the same BS tactic again
Anyone know what kind of ballot security they have in Ohio? I’m concerned about all these absentee ballots floating out there, either going “missing” or boxes of them being “found.”
I already got rid of one pro obama whack job from facebook, she was a real nut, but this girl that I have now on facebook, she seems like a nice girl but is really far beyond saving as far as being in the tank for Obama, other than her she is the only left winger on facebook that I follow, everyone else is Conservative, I make sure of that now. I can’t stand seeing idiots swoon over that marxist jackass
Not only do I unfriend them I go a step further and block them. It is as if they do not even exist. LOL
We counted yard sign sites in a three county area here in Southern Indiana. Twenty R sites only two for the D. Saw one site for D governor candidate/ many for Mike Pence for same position. Lots of R/R signs and several. Free America/FIRE OBAMA!
Not at all. It means that if you conducted the poll 100 times with 100 different samples Romney would get 40% to 48.6% of those polled 95 times and Obama would get between 41.3 and 49.6% of those polled 95 times out of 100. That's all any poll means.
What polls can not do is predict turnout. That's the shit in the meatloaf.
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