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National Journalís 11 point skew barely holds back the truth: Romney is in command
coachisright.com ^ | Oct. 3, 2012 | Kevin "Coach" Collins

Posted on 10/03/2012 10:51:40 AM PDT by jmaroneps37

The National Journal (NJ) has done its part to make believe Barack Obama is leading Mitt Romney. Without regard for current realities they nonetheless pressed on but could not muster more than a 47/47 tie between the two.

N J used 2008 as its projected turnout model as if 2010 never happened and we have all been in a state of suspended animation since November 2008. For liberals this is a comforting day dream but it has little connection to reality.

As per Rasmussen, in 2010 Republicans held a slim 1.3 point Party registration edge (not Party Identification – but actual Party registration). That election brought a historic beating for Democrats at every level from the Senate down to state assemblies.

Rasmussen’s current numbers show a 4.3 point registration edge for Republicans; more than THREE TIMES larger than their 2010 edge.

Last weekend Gallup reported Republican enthusiasm is at 64 percent, 16 points higher than Democrat enthusiasm to vote. These two sets of numbers wipe away any argument for using the 2008 voter turnout model as N.J has done.

By using a 2008 turnout model N.J is saying we will see an electorate of 36 percent Democratic, 29 percent Republican, and 30 percent Independent voters go to the polls next month.

These numbers are seriously skewed. When they are un-skewed N J’s poll actually shows Romney is in a solid lead.

Using Rasmussen’s reported actual Party registrations of 37.6% Republican 33.3% Democrat and 30% Independent voters shows N J committed a sampling skew of +2.7 Democrats and - 8.6 Republicans. This resulted in an 11.3 point skew toward Obama.

If all of its gyrations and skews could only get Obama to a tie, Romney is in very good shape.

Reviewing Rasmussen’s generic Congressional ballot numbers……

(Excerpt) Read more at coachisright.com ...


TOPICS: Conspiracy; Government; Politics; Society
KEYWORDS: polls
Once you understand the numbers their fake polls fall apart like a snowman in July.
1 posted on 10/03/2012 10:51:44 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
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To: jmaroneps37

They can’t even win with these samples anymore. Obozo is in serious trouble


2 posted on 10/03/2012 10:52:58 AM PDT by Viennacon
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To: jmaroneps37
I am praying for a heretofore silent, massive tidal wave of angry, seething rejection of this affirmative action mistake born of guilt and hatred for American that propels his ass back to Hawaii so fast that his wife barely has time to pack her ‘designer’ couture and $1000 sneakers for the trip homeward. Maybe one of her ‘designers’ can design her up a stylish Burka to wear for the rest of her life with him.
3 posted on 10/03/2012 10:56:53 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: jmaroneps37
Well said..... and Obama can't be loosing percentages of people across the various splintered electorate and still be ahead.....

It's just not possible.....

4 posted on 10/03/2012 10:57:28 AM PDT by thingumbob (I'm a bitter clinger...I dare you to take my gun)
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To: Viennacon

I’ve noticed that O’Bozo supporters are real edgy and get angry easily these days. When I see an OZero bumper sticker I stay clear as it is like wearing a sign that says “I am an irrational unpredictable emotional driver!!!”


5 posted on 10/03/2012 10:59:03 AM PDT by tired&retired
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To: Viennacon
But, they will persevere right up til and after the election. They will engineer riots and dissension with their carping about “how can our projections be wrong?”

There's gonna be some trouble November 6 and immediately afterward.

6 posted on 10/03/2012 10:59:52 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: tired&retired

I saw one today. An old man, like me, that had a Vietnam Veteran sticker along with his brand new Obama-Biden 12 sticker -— more interested in his entitlements than freedom that he fought for...I felt like running him off the road.


7 posted on 10/03/2012 11:02:14 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: Gaffer
I wish you would have, then backed over him with my compliments.

They've become enemies of the Constitution, prior service notwithstanding.

8 posted on 10/03/2012 11:06:41 AM PDT by tomkat (counterattack)
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To: Gaffer

Was it John Kerry, because if I recall correctly, he can’t really call himself a “veteran”.


9 posted on 10/03/2012 11:10:17 AM PDT by Viennacon
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To: tomkat

And.... so many of the cars with d\”Disabled Parking” permits also have O’Zero bumper stickers. I didn’t know they gave permits for being mentally disabled!!!


10 posted on 10/03/2012 11:12:00 AM PDT by tired&retired
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To: tired&retired
That's a matter for the Department of Redundancy Department !

;-)

;-)

11 posted on 10/03/2012 11:18:00 AM PDT by tomkat (counterattack)
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To: jmaroneps37

Romney isn’t in command, but contrary to the MSM reports, he is right in the thick of things.

This thing isn’t close to being over yet. Still a lot of twists and turns to come.

We’ll see if the MSM can convince the American people Romney was full of gaffes and the big loser in tonight’s debate, for example. It hasn’t occurred yet, but you know that story has already been written.

If they can’t pull it off, then I expect the mainstream polls to start showing a Romney lead in the very near future.


12 posted on 10/03/2012 11:18:15 AM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: jmaroneps37

I wonder what these polls would look like if they used the 2010 turnout model?


13 posted on 10/03/2012 11:19:56 AM PDT by Mr. K ("The only thing the World would hate more than the USA in charge is the USA NOT in charge")
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To: jmaroneps37

If this is true, why does ras himself still have Romney trailing?


14 posted on 10/03/2012 11:23:07 AM PDT by garageconservative
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To: thingumbob

The most impossible thing to believe is he is better liked than when he was an unknown. More people want to vote for him today after his historic election is equally as impossible to believe.


15 posted on 10/03/2012 11:23:07 AM PDT by wiggen (The teacher card. When the racism card just won't work.)
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To: jmaroneps37

At some point these pollsters are going to have to do unbiased polls if only to save their reputations. When will that point be?


16 posted on 10/03/2012 11:25:15 AM PDT by albionin
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To: Mr. K

While I think it is wrong to use the 2008 model, it is also wrong to use the 2010 model. Obama wasn’t on the ticket. While he won’t have the turnout of 2008, they’ll have more turnout than 2010. It will be in the middle, which is good news for Romney.


17 posted on 10/03/2012 11:26:13 AM PDT by Crimson Elephant
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To: Gaffer

Prediction. There will not be a peep from the democrat masses!


18 posted on 10/03/2012 11:31:58 AM PDT by GilGil
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To: tired&retired

Liberals are ALWAYS angry..but yes I am seeing the disgusting anger from them now more than before, they must know their messiah is losing and losing BIG. All they do is cry non stop about wanting free birth control and free abortions, such sickening creatures


19 posted on 10/03/2012 11:32:56 AM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: jmaroneps37

I was looking at their party breakdown and how each party reported they would vote. Their numbers were not consistent with their final answer. They obviously went into this thinking that it was tied. Anything less than a 4% Dim advantage over the GOP yields a Romney lead as he leads in both GOP and Independents.


20 posted on 10/03/2012 11:42:03 AM PDT by Ingtar (Everyone complains about the weather, but only Liberals try to legislate it.)
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To: GilGil

I hope you are right.


21 posted on 10/03/2012 11:43:43 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: wiggen
The most impossible thing to believe is he is better liked now than when he was an unknown.

.....oh but he is......in his own mind....

That's why they call it Narcissism....

22 posted on 10/03/2012 11:45:28 AM PDT by thingumbob (I'm a bitter clinger...I dare you to take my gun)
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To: Gaffer

Here it is. 40% of union households vote Pubie
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2011/jul/07/bill-kristol/bill-kristol-says-40-percent-republicans-voted-joh/


23 posted on 10/03/2012 12:01:00 PM PDT by GilGil
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To: Crimson Elephant

I disagree- I think the 2010 model will prove to be the most accurate

It is BECAUSE Of Obama that the 2010 (R) turnout was so big - and it will be even more so this time


24 posted on 10/03/2012 1:00:55 PM PDT by Mr. K ("The only thing the World would hate more than the USA in charge is the USA NOT in charge")
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To: jmaroneps37

I noticed the same thing reading the assumptions. Romney is leading among Independents, according to the poll, 49 to 41, so I’m wondering why he’s not leading, and the split comes out Dem +7, and that answers that question. If Romney is polling even giving a skew like that, that’s great news for him.

How is that Rasmussen isn’t showing a lead for Romney? That’s a bit confusing.

All the polling I’m seeing is showing two things:
1)GOP enthusiasm is higher than Dem.
2)Romney is doing better among Independents.

It’s perplexing none of the polls show Romney leading. I understand that many polls are skewing the Democratic voters, but not all are.

Given that Independents usually break for the challenger, it seems more like this is Romney’s race to lose than Obama’s, notwithstanding what one hears.


25 posted on 10/03/2012 1:04:38 PM PDT by TomEwall
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To: TomEwall; garageconservative

There’s another element in regard to Ras.

First, remember Ras HAS had Romney either tied or leading, more than once. I think you’re wondering why his most recent keeps showing O a couple points up. That was dealt with on another thread. Ras has admitted he has given the Dems a more favorable percentage, just recently, because he says more Dems are responding to his polls, fewer Republicans, just recently.

No kidding. But that doesn’t mean there are fewer Republicans or they aren’t chomping at the bit to vote. They’re more and more not answering polls.

IF Ras were still using the exact same breakdown he was when he showed Romney leading or tied, it would not show O ahead.


26 posted on 10/03/2012 2:20:15 PM PDT by txrangerette ("HOLD TO THE TRUTH...SPEAK WITHOUT FEAR." - Glenn Beck)
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To: txrangerette

“That was dealt with on another thread. Ras has admitted he has given the Dems a more favorable percentage, just recently, because he says more Dems are responding to his polls, fewer Republicans, just recently.”

This is odd. Who cares who responds to the polls? The question is who’s going to vote! Wouldn’t his balancing methodology take into account that more Dems are answering polls? I’ll have to see if I can find the other thread.


27 posted on 10/03/2012 3:28:50 PM PDT by TomEwall
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To: jmaroneps37
maybe the polls are right...maybe we're all delusional...

but something tells me that we could very well see a Romney landslide....

if that happens, may God guide him and us to right our sinking ship....

pray folks....pray that at least we can hold our heads up again in the world....

28 posted on 10/03/2012 3:33:06 PM PDT by cherry
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To: Mr. K

I agree the GOP will turn out, what I am saying is the GAP won’t be as big, because even if Obama tanks, they’ll manage to drag enough supporters (or imagine them) to have a better turnout that 2010...it won’t be close to 2008 though.


29 posted on 10/04/2012 8:14:14 AM PDT by Crimson Elephant
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To: Crimson Elephant

still have to disagree- but at least it is looking pretty obvious that turnout will be down for dems and up for GOP


30 posted on 10/04/2012 11:12:49 AM PDT by Mr. K ("The only thing the World would hate more than the USA in charge is the USA NOT in charge")
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