I noticed the same thing reading the assumptions. Romney is leading among Independents, according to the poll, 49 to 41, so I’m wondering why he’s not leading, and the split comes out Dem +7, and that answers that question. If Romney is polling even giving a skew like that, that’s great news for him.
How is that Rasmussen isn’t showing a lead for Romney? That’s a bit confusing.
All the polling I’m seeing is showing two things:
1)GOP enthusiasm is higher than Dem.
2)Romney is doing better among Independents.
It’s perplexing none of the polls show Romney leading. I understand that many polls are skewing the Democratic voters, but not all are.
Given that Independents usually break for the challenger, it seems more like this is Romney’s race to lose than Obama’s, notwithstanding what one hears.
There’s another element in regard to Ras.
First, remember Ras HAS had Romney either tied or leading, more than once. I think you’re wondering why his most recent keeps showing O a couple points up. That was dealt with on another thread. Ras has admitted he has given the Dems a more favorable percentage, just recently, because he says more Dems are responding to his polls, fewer Republicans, just recently.
No kidding. But that doesn’t mean there are fewer Republicans or they aren’t chomping at the bit to vote. They’re more and more not answering polls.
IF Ras were still using the exact same breakdown he was when he showed Romney leading or tied, it would not show O ahead.