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New Unemployment Rate A Political Fraud
Steven Birn Speaks ^ | 10/05/12 | Steven Birn

Posted on 10/06/2012 4:30:06 AM PDT by LD Jackson

The media will no doubt trumpet the new 7.8% unemployment rate as evidence that Obama’s policies are working. Unfortunately the new 7.8% figure is a political fraud. The numbers don’t add up. The government claims 114,000 jobs were added last month, which isn’t all that great of a number. This resulted in a 0.3% drop in unemployment? That isn’t believable in the least. The ranks of the unemployed decreased by 456,000 last month. Well wait a minute, how does that figure decrease by so much when only 114,000 new jobs were created? The government is tossing 340,000+ people out of the job market in order to boast unemployment is down. It took me all of 30 seconds to figure out what they’re doing. Unfortunately the press will only report the 7.8% number.

CNBC claims the numbers are tame and they’re confused by all of the contradictory figures. This report is overtly political. It’s meant to secure Obama’s re-election. Just wait, the November surprise we’ll get when the October jobs report is released on November 2nd will be even worse. Magically unemployment will be below 7.5%. That the government threw half a million more people out of the job market will be ignored. Just in the last two months the government has claimed that over 500,000 people are no longer in the job market. Where are they? Did they leave the country? Surely they aren’t all women who have decided to stay at home with their kids.

In fact, the numbers are even worse than this. We need 150,000 new jobs every month just to keep pace with population growth. Each month new kids graduate college or high school, jobs need to be available for them. When 114,000 jobs are created that means we aren’t even keeping pace with population growth. Sure, some people are retiring and that offsets the number. But a lot of people are foregoing retiring in this economy. Romney was right during the debate 50% of college graduates can’t find a job out of college right away. These people are either going directly to the ranks of the unemployed or the government simply isn’t counting them.

The real telling figure from the government is the U-6 report which indicates that real unemployment remained at 14.7% last month. U-6 includes people who have given up (like the 340,000+ the government doesn’t count in the official unemployment rate) and people who are underemployed. In other words, the economy isn’t really getting better. Instead the government is manipulating the numbers to favor an incumbent President.

Mitt Romney needs to issue an ad today attacking the new unemployment rate. He needs to focus on the 340,000+ that the government simply removed from the job force. The ad should make it clear 114,000 isn’t good enough. If we had a real recovery we would be creating jobs at the rate of 500,000 a month like we did during the Reagan recovery. What we have now isn’t a real recovery, it’s a stagnation. Romney has to make these points loud and clear over the next couple of days otherwise any bump he would have received from his debate victory will be lost.

This sort of nonsense job reports shouldn’t surprise any of us. It was entirely predictable. It’s a good example of why government really shouldn’t be in the business of labor statistics in the first place. These statistics are easily manipulated to favor those already in power, no matter the party. In fact, the government has changed the formula so that the U-6 rate, which used to be the official unemployment rate, is no longer used officially. Why? Because it hurts the incumbent as it is always higher than the current version of the unemployment rate. The question now is whether the public will pay attention to the September number or whether they’ll wonder how it dropped so much when only 114,000 jobs were created. My guess is that they’ll pay attention to the number alone.

UPDATE: It appears that several Bureau of Labor Statistics economists are donors to Obama’s re-election campaign. Is anyone at all surprised?


TOPICS: Politics
KEYWORDS: barackobama; unemploymen

1 posted on 10/06/2012 4:30:13 AM PDT by LD Jackson
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To: LD Jackson

The onlybthing Obama has successfully done is ensure that it will be a long time before another black president is elected and I happen to think Allen West would have made a good president. At least he would have been honest (as a politician be).


2 posted on 10/06/2012 4:42:40 AM PDT by jsanders2001
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To: jsanders2001

“...that it will be a long time before another black president is elected...”
IMO, not a fair statement should probably be:
‘that it will be a long time before a Chicago thug is elected President’


3 posted on 10/06/2012 4:46:45 AM PDT by duckman (I'm part of the group pulling the wagon!)
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To: duckman
Long time before we get another Chicago thug -- true statement.
Long time before we get another black president -- also true statement.

I do feel bad for Allen West. I think Obama has really spoiled things for him.

4 posted on 10/06/2012 4:54:02 AM PDT by ClearCase_guy (ua)
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To: LD Jackson

7.8 % don’t jive as long as the 47 % is high...


5 posted on 10/06/2012 5:00:06 AM PDT by American Constitutionalist
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To: LD Jackson; Clint N. Suhks; MagUSNRET; smokingfrog; advertising guy; Fudd Fan; TornadoAlley3
Romney/Ryan better hit this phony numbers BS/crap hard in the next 2-3-4 debates, or øbummer will be made to look like a business/economic hero on Nov 6th, by the corrupt MSM.

U6 data, NOT the cooked/fried/boiled U3 numbers, MUST be used. The corrupty, criminal BLS gets away with too much to benefit the marxist-POS-liar-traitor-in-chief.

6 posted on 10/06/2012 5:02:02 AM PDT by carriage_hill (Libs, dems, unions, leftist scum & murderous muzzies - are like bacteria: attack, attack, attack!)
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To: LD Jackson
from the CBS TV poll:

Yes. There's A Recovery Underway 0.67%

No. Someone's "Cooking The Books" 99.33%

7 posted on 10/06/2012 5:04:44 AM PDT by WVKayaker (I'm more than happy to be Obama's "enemy of the week" - Sarah Palin)
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To: LD Jackson

No, no, y’all got it all wrong. These numbers are correct. President Obama’s plan is starting to work, it is just that these new jobs and the people employed are invisible. Why, last month this country added 125,000 new jobs in pixie dust manufacturing, 135,000 in the transportation of unicorns, and thanks to Obamacare tooth fairies are now required to harvest organs along with correcting teeth.


8 posted on 10/06/2012 5:15:29 AM PDT by phugg
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To: ClearCase_guy

As I posted several years ago;

Obama is America’s David Dinkins.


9 posted on 10/06/2012 5:16:20 AM PDT by Roccus
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To: WVKayaker

Is that an actual scientific poll?


10 posted on 10/06/2012 5:16:56 AM PDT by ez (When you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail.)
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To: LD Jackson
Unfortunately the new 7.8% figure is a political fraud

When Romney secures the Presidency, a top prioity is to make heads roll at the BLS.

11 posted on 10/06/2012 5:24:03 AM PDT by VRW Conspirator (We were the tea party before there was a tea party. - Jim Robinson)
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To: carriage_hill

Why are we continuing to sign up for this little piece of fiction in the first place? I wish they would cite the actual 14.7% number...Say it often. Say it every chance you get. Our national unemployment picture is a national disgrace. Historically, America has always been about work. WORK. Not how you take care of those who can’t find it.


12 posted on 10/06/2012 5:28:28 AM PDT by MarDav
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To: LD Jackson

Shades of Saturn 3.The administration will start distributing photos of an American astronaut landing on Mars except they are really photoshopped photos of a guy meandering in a Louisiana marsh.Much like coming up with a a healthy dip in the unemployment rate while simultaneously posting dismal job numbers in this last report.


13 posted on 10/06/2012 5:36:18 AM PDT by chuckee
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To: carriage_hill

Most of these people are unemployed and their emergency benefits have run out. Despite what you hear there is a limit on the benefits an unemployed gets. More than that sometime around Jan 14th EVERYBODY’s federal emergency benefits end because that’s when the program expires. It does not matter if someone has just got on emergency unemployment in August, October or december - they all stop on that date.

What the republicans should do is put up a bill that extends the emergency unemployment benefits for 3 - 6 months. And offer cuts in other places (preferably in places Harry Reid would not like to see cuts) to offset the cost of the emergency unemployment.

This will put Harry Reid and his party in a very difficult position (between a rock and a hard place). It will NOT look good if his party votes against the unemployed victims of this pResident.

If this had been done earlier we would not be seeing 7.8% unemployment because the more people that get back into the program the higher the unemployment rate will reflect Realville as it heads up toward 11%.

Most likely we will see another drop in the unemployment rate next month. This is the time that those who went on emergency unemployment expire and are no longer counted as unemployed. This benefits Obama.

Mitt Romney is right, the rate is dropping as people’s unemployment benefits expire.


14 posted on 10/06/2012 5:38:03 AM PDT by tsowellfan
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To: jsanders2001

Obabaa “found” 800,000+ jobs the same way Dems “find” boxes of ballots in the trunks of cars and in storage closets that were “overlooked”....close election? Repub winning by a little? Wow! Lookee here, we just “found” more ballots! And we must count every ballot! (except for military ballots or ballots from Repub districts, etc)


15 posted on 10/06/2012 5:41:42 AM PDT by OldArmy52 (The MSMedia functions in the USA as Pravda functioned in the USSR.)
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To: MarDav

This is “The New Normal”, isn’t it? Now all about the “takers” and screw the “makers”, like us, who’ve worked for 50+ years. What’s coming is truly frightening, at this rate.


16 posted on 10/06/2012 5:57:22 AM PDT by carriage_hill (Libs, dems, unions, leftist scum & murderous muzzies - are like bacteria: attack, attack, attack!)
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To: LD Jackson





17 posted on 10/06/2012 6:08:59 AM PDT by Yosemitest (It's simple. Fight ... or Die !)
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To: LD Jackson

18 posted on 10/06/2012 6:11:27 AM PDT by WVKayaker (I'm more than happy to be Obama's "enemy of the week" - Sarah Palin)
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To: LD Jackson

Real rate 16.3%
http://www.streettalklive.com/daily-x-change/1245-why-the-real-unemployment-rate-is-163.html


19 posted on 10/06/2012 6:13:20 AM PDT by stickandrudder (Another Bitter-Clinger! God-Family-Tribe)
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To: tsowellfan

This “New Normal” is so surreal to us with a functioning brain.

You’re 100% right. When UE runs out in Jan 2013, if *something* isn’t in-place to quell the growing exasperation and anger, SHTF.

Reid&Co will fight everything to keep it as is, until after Nov 6. the GOP-e doesn’t have the stones to challenge him and the corrupt congress.

The U3 data will continue to drop and show an even bigger gain in Oct, as 11/6 gets here, making 0bummer&Co the heroes. R/R won’t know what hit them unless they go after the U6 data daily and push the truth out there. The MSM will cover, spin, lie... do whatever it takes to get that POS back in.

Seen these?

http://www.wnd.com/2012/10/trinity-church-members-reveal-obama-shocker/
&
http://www.wnd.com/2012/10/jesse-jackson-wright-arranged-obama-marriage/This


20 posted on 10/06/2012 6:15:47 AM PDT by carriage_hill (Libs, dems, unions, leftist scum & murderous muzzies - are like bacteria: attack, attack, attack!)
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To: carriage_hill

Yes, I saw those articles. Thanks!

You’re right. If there were a republican in the White House the democrats’ primary issue right now would have been unemployment extension. They are normally the party that thinks about it first because they see it as votes. But not this year. The silence is deafening.

They know that if it were extended the unemployment rate would be above 8.3% today.


21 posted on 10/06/2012 6:23:33 AM PDT by tsowellfan
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To: ClearCase_guy

On the contrary, I believe Colonel West will be one of the great future Presidents, will bring honor and skill to the Office.


22 posted on 10/06/2012 6:28:03 AM PDT by Shady (Hey, King Bozo Osmocote....you can't hide the truth anymore..)
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To: jsanders2001

23 posted on 10/06/2012 6:28:22 AM PDT by Donald Rumsfeld Fan (The)
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To: Roccus

David Dinkins, Al Sharpton and Shelly Silver in one disgusting smelly package.


24 posted on 10/06/2012 6:29:15 AM PDT by Shady (Hey, King Bozo Osmocote....you can't hide the truth anymore..)
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To: LD Jackson

[...the government threw half a million more people out of the job market will be ignored...]

Exactly, they have effectively been tagged as non-persons, they no longer exist.


25 posted on 10/06/2012 6:37:38 AM PDT by RetSignman (Remember the 2010 movement...Next Tsunami wave is building.)
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To: WVKayaker
I'd like to see that CBS TV poll because it's crucial that voters understand the scam. It further demonstrates everyone knows Obie's team is lying. Can't be trusted.

Hilda Solis is a committed commie buddy of Obie's, and she's reportedly offended that her numbers are being questioned. So sad, Hilda. You're a crook, just like your boss.

26 posted on 10/06/2012 6:45:21 AM PDT by chiller (First check the poll's Dem/Rep/Ind sampling numbers, then re-think.)
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To: VRW Conspirator
Correct and seconded. And what a brave demonstration it would make if Mitt would revert to the more accurate U-6.

Further, I understand a relatively small sample is surveyed every month. I believe 125,000 businesses and 30,000 homes. A staff of 50 should be able to handle that, vs the 5,000 that BLS probably employs. I am admittedly shooting numbers from the hip, but I do want answers as to the makeup of this bureaucracy and rest assured Mitt will want to know come Jan.

27 posted on 10/06/2012 7:00:26 AM PDT by chiller (First check the poll's Dem/Rep/Ind sampling numbers, then re-think.)
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To: tsowellfan

Everyone is done on January 1 with extensions...No more EUC or EB. The only way for a person to continue receiving UI is if they have entitlement to a regular UI claim....Work in at least 2 quarters...

Prepare for riots in the streets....just cringing at the thought of all of those without any income BECAUSE of the policies of King Bozo Oligarch.


28 posted on 10/06/2012 7:19:19 AM PDT by Shady (Hey, King Bozo Osmocote....you can't hide the truth anymore..)
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To: RetSignman

Except when they don’t pay their taxes....


29 posted on 10/06/2012 7:27:22 AM PDT by Shady (Hey, King Bozo Osmocote....you can't hide the truth anymore..)
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To: Shady
Everyone is done on January 1 with extensions...No more EUC or EB. The only way for a person to continue receiving UI is if they have entitlement to a regular UI claim....Work in at least 2 quarters...

Prepare for riots in the streets....just cringing at the thought of all of those without any income BECAUSE of the policies of King Bozo Oligarch.

If Romney wins you can bet that the democrats in Congress will start screaming for an emergency extension of Unemployment and they will do it for 2 reasons.

1) To pander, of course

2) Because if it passes the unemployment rate will begin to rise under Mitt Romney and he will own every percentage point it goes up from Jan 20th.

Suddenly this will be called the Romney Recession and will be the issue they will run on in 2014 and 2016.

It's VERY important that the American people know exactly why it's now at 7.8%.

30 posted on 10/06/2012 7:37:26 AM PDT by tsowellfan
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To: WVKayaker

Fascinating. Please forward the link.


31 posted on 10/06/2012 7:40:25 AM PDT by chiller (First check the poll's Dem/Rep/Ind sampling numbers, then re-think.)
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To: carriage_hill

“The New Normal”

We are trying to fight in a war of words with the Left which began about 100 or so battles ago. So much ground has already been ceded that reasonable arguments seem “mean”, common sense approaches sound hurtful, and real solutions sound like pie-in-the-sky.

Just think about the idea of SOCIAL security...how did an idea with such a name get such a footing!? In other words, how was it so many Americans were willing to trade in their status as free men and women for a continuous state of dependency upon a government-run program? I know that this occurred as a result of the Depression, but still...you would have thought there would have been enough folks around to limit the reach of such a plan as to create a Sunset moment based upon a full economic turnaround. Now, we’ve got EVERYONE thinking, “I HAVE TO HAVE my social security check or I’m going to die!” All the while not realizing that this pot of money has been abused by gov’t officials time and time again to buy votes.


32 posted on 10/06/2012 7:46:47 AM PDT by MarDav
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To: LD Jackson

The focus on unemployment rates is misdirected energy. Because “benefits collection” has become an alternative lifestyle, “unemployment rates” based on who chooses to seek a job have vastly reduced relevance.

What matters is how many people are employed divided by the total population they are supporting. Somehow we have to force the government and media to report the total number of full time workers, part time workers, self-employed, and the military against the actual population. This would reveal a “carry rate” that could be compared over time. “How many people does each actual worker carry?” is the real question.


33 posted on 10/06/2012 7:53:40 AM PDT by Chewbarkah
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To: tsowellfan

Exactly. Watch the media blame EVERYTHING on Mittens from the get-go. I really hope he is fearless and has investigators expose all of the crimes committed by King Bozo and his Merry Felons....


34 posted on 10/06/2012 8:18:52 AM PDT by Shady (Hey, King Bozo Osmocote....you can't hide the truth anymore..)
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To: LD Jackson

If Obama loses the next debate we might have 5% unemployment by the election...


35 posted on 10/06/2012 8:20:10 AM PDT by Raebie (WS)
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To: MarDav

Except for the 100-mile high stack of IOUs, the SS coffers have been emptied long ago. There’s nothing there, except utter and complete bankruptcy and insolvency. America’s already gone over the precipice; it’s just a matter of how much longer until we crash and hit rock bottom. SHTF.


36 posted on 10/06/2012 8:21:11 AM PDT by carriage_hill (Libs, dems, unions, leftist scum & murderous muzzies - are like bacteria: attack, attack, attack!)
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To: LD Jackson

133,561,000 workers Jan 2009
133,500,000(P) workers Sept 2012
Total Non Farm Payroll Seasonal Adjusted
Bureau of Labor Statistics

http://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet?request_action=wh&graph_name=CE_cesbref1


37 posted on 10/06/2012 8:26:59 AM PDT by stocksthatgoup (ZERO DARK THIRTY (coming soon to an embassy near you))
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To: carriage_hill

“Except for the 100-mile high stack of IOUs...”

So, then there IS something in the trust fund?!!! Whew! Thank goodness! I can count on my retirement now. Thaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaank Youuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu, Uncle Sam!


38 posted on 10/06/2012 8:41:54 AM PDT by MarDav
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To: MarDav
stack of IOUs =


39 posted on 10/06/2012 9:02:06 AM PDT by carriage_hill (Libs, dems, unions, leftist scum & murderous muzzies - are like bacteria: attack, attack, attack!)
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To: carriage_hill

2 ply? More wasted federal dollars!


40 posted on 10/06/2012 9:07:51 AM PDT by MarDav
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To: chiller

“Please forward the link.”

http://www.pewstates.org/projects/stateline/headlines/infographic-a-due-date-nears-on-unemployment-trust-fund-loans-85899375139


41 posted on 10/06/2012 9:38:43 AM PDT by WVKayaker (I'm more than happy to be Obama's "enemy of the week" - Sarah Palin)
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To: MarDav
LOL. I couldn't tell from the original Google pic; now I can see the 2-ply. I only buy the Scott single-ply/20-roll packages, for my basement stockpile. No govt waste at my Farm:


42 posted on 10/06/2012 9:49:27 AM PDT by carriage_hill (Libs, dems, unions, leftist scum & murderous muzzies - are like bacteria: attack, attack, attack!)
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To: WVKayaker
No. Someone's "Cooking The Books" 99.33%

This is the one I'm dying to see and I didn't see it on the pew link.

43 posted on 10/06/2012 11:28:03 AM PDT by chiller (First check the poll's Dem/Rep/Ind sampling numbers, then re-think.)
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To: chiller

click on the header link and go down the page/right... just like he said!


44 posted on 10/06/2012 1:12:14 PM PDT by WVKayaker (I'm more than happy to be Obama's "enemy of the week" - Sarah Palin)
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To: chiller

sorry, this is the link:

http://connecticut.cbslocal.com/2012/10/02/new-hampshire-resident-obama-couldnt-run-a-lemonade-stand/


45 posted on 10/06/2012 1:15:23 PM PDT by WVKayaker (I'm more than happy to be Obama's "enemy of the week" - Sarah Palin)
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To: WVKayaker

Thanks. Astounding ! In Connecticutt ? !!! Even if WTIC is a talk radio station, and probably conservative, it’s all but unanimous; they’re crooks.


46 posted on 10/06/2012 3:38:42 PM PDT by chiller (First check the poll's Dem/Rep/Ind sampling numbers, then re-think.)
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To: LD Jackson

bttt


47 posted on 10/06/2012 6:33:08 PM PDT by Luigi Vasellini (End the political class.......TERM LIMITS NOW!!!!!!!!!!)
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