Posted on 10/07/2012 7:21:08 AM PDT by raptor22
Campaign 2012: When an incumbent Democratic president is virtually tied in a congressional district he carried by high double digits in 2008, and is losing in the suburbs of his hometown, there could be trouble brewing.
In August, a poll by the Joliet, Ill.-based polling firm of McKeon and Associates, found President Obama leading challenger Mitt Romney in Cook County, which includes Chicago and its suburbs, by a 12-point margin 49-37.
That would seem to be a comfortable edge, but it is significantly smaller than traditional margins needed to outweigh the more Republican downstate vote.
"He has to come out of Cook County with a big lead or he's gonna have problems downstate," explained McKeon, who said that based on the numbers he's seen, Obama polled only in the 40s in downstate Illinois.
If his poll, which surveyed 629 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus/minus 3.4%, is accurate, Obama would be in some trouble.
In the city of Chicago itself, McKeon found Obama with a 60-29 lead over Romney. But Romney led 45-38 in the surrounding areas. Across the county as a whole, Romney led 43-31 among independent voters and held a 44-38 lead among male voters.
McKeon noted that in the 2010 gubernatorial race Republican Bill Brady came within a single percentage point of now-Gov. Pat Quinn because Brady won most of the downstate counties that have traditionally resisted and resented being dominated by upstate Chicago politicians.
(Excerpt) Read more at tcotblog.ning.com ...
That’s something I’d love to see.Talk about rubbing salt into an open wound.Ouch.
Talk about the humiliation that would cause.His little ego couldn’t stand if.
Thats something Id love to see.Talk about rubbing salt into an open wound.Ouch.
Talk about the humiliation that would cause.His little ego couldnt stand it.
With the long tradition of dead voters, Barry's former Chief of Staff now the Mayor of Chicago, the Democrat lock on the Metro East area near St. Louis, the gerrymandering of districts by the corrupt Ill-Annoy Speaker of the House, and the well-documented and largely ignored meddling of polling-place security studied by Argonne National Labs, and the politically imbedded teachers' union pounding the pavement, Barry will NOT lose Ill-Annoy....by hook or by crook and we have plenty of crooks.
If the election continues to trend as it has for the past week for Romney, I wonder how the lame duck obama will handle those two months. Bush was magnaminous in giving the dems what they wanted on his watch with a virtual co presidency during the lame duck, even leaving 350Billion on the table for o to distribute as his largess to his supporters.
My prediction, the glueing of the Ws on the keyboard when the Clinton mess left will be a mere prank compared to what this dictator will do, assuming he choses to leave without a fight. The real election fight may begin on Nov 8th.
It happened to Gore in 2000, why not zero. BTW, I thought his home state is Kenya.
O will almost certainly take Illinois, but since some of Wisconsin, which is definitely in play and leaning toward O, as well as Indiana, which RCP only shows as leaning to Romney, are in the Chicago media market. I think an ad-buy by Romney on Chicago TV stations would be in order (it might also have the virtue of a head-fake to the Obama folks in light of these polls).
Cook and the collar counties are a lock for Obama. Throw in the downstate counties where the vast majority of voters are farmers who would vote for the donkey if the Democrats put him on the ballot and I just don’t seen any Democrat losing IL anytime soon. Happens in our statewide races so we’re used to it. We’d do something about it but Wisconsin isn’t interested in taking Chicago and we’re told all the time how important Chicago is to the economy of IL.
Sure it is, it’s where all our tax dollars go to be wasted by Democrat politicians or on the useless Chicago schools.
Didn’t Gore lost his home state of Tennessee in 2000?
“Cook and the collar counties are a lock for Obama”
No way, Jose, are the collar counties a lock for Obama, and I believe much more than you think in Cook County will go for Romney. The City of Chicago will vote overwhelmingly for Obama, but the surrounds, not so much, and most of the collar counties, not at all. I live in a collar county, DuPage, and it will vote overwhelmingly for Romney. So will Lake County, most of Will County, almost all of the collar counties will be pro Romney. Mark my woids, you heard it hear foist (a little Chicago lingo).
I'm in Lake County and worked in the Walsh campaign in 2010.
We have active and enthusiastic Tea Party groups up here and we are networking in the rural/ semi-rural towns. There is a huge consensus to vote out BO.
If the turnout is low in Chicago, I think we actually have a chance to take Illinois.
This is how Illinois voted in the 2010 election. Most of downstate is red. We just can’t out vote Cook County. If Obama doesn’t have a strong showing in Chicago, Illinois can go red.
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2010/11/illinois_not_as_blue_as_you_th.html
Point noted but 50+ years of living in IL tell me that it will take a miracle for IL to go for anyone other than Obama.
As for downstate being red. Sure it is for the most part. But then there are counties like Macoupin where I grew up that might as well be Cook County. All, and I mean ALL, of the farmers vote Democrat. The businesses they frequent and support vote the same way or lose the business of the farmers.
My parents had a friend who ran for county office. She was a registered Republican, worked for a Republican legislator from another district, and in order to even have a chance in her own county ran for office as a Democrat - with the adivce and blessing of her boss.
Everyone thought it was a miracle when the Daley machine was voted out of the Chicago mayor’s office in 1979. And Harold Washington also slew the Daley dragon in 1983.
The people of Chicago’s patience with the Daley machine and its poor, corrupt leadership is not infinite. And no one embodies the Daley machine more obviously today than Barack Obama with his poverty-producing policies and corrupt Solyndra-type deals.
It will not be a miracle if Obama loses Chicago next month, it will be history repeating itself.
Did he polled any DEAD COOK COUNTY VOTERS??
Point noted but 50+ years of living in IL tell me that it will take a miracle for IL to go for anyone other than Obama.
Well, in spite of the odds, this election year I prefer to believe in miracles. What the heck, impossible as it may seem, we might wake up the next day in shock and awe. The glass half full.... A girl can dream.
Point noted but 50+ years of living in IL tell me that it will take a miracle for IL to go for anyone other than Obama.
Well, in spite of the odds, this election year I prefer to believe in miracles. What the heck, impossible as it may seem, we might wake up the next day in shock and awe. The glass half full.... A girl can dream.
They just had a Tea Party meeting at a VFW Hall in Tinley Park, which is in Cook County, and very near Will County.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.