Skip to comments.Looking ahead: If Hillary doesn't run in 2016, just who could the Dems nominate?
Posted on 10/07/2012 9:59:10 AM PDT by ken5050
Follow me on this, please. I've actually thought there were two winners at the debate: Mitt Romney, and Hillary Clinton. Mitt, for the obvious reasons, and Hillary, because I've believed ever since 2008 that she was going to run again in 2016. If Obama wins, IMHO, what he will do to the country the next four years will make it impossible for any Democrat to win the WH. So, an Obama loss is a very good thing for the Clintons.
Whoever wins, for the Democrats, 2016 is an open seat. Thus the race for the nomination begins the day after the election.
1.Hillary looks old, tired. Visual appearance is important in this media-driven environment. Americans are willing to vote for older males...from Ronald Reagan to Frank Lautenberg, from Strom Thurmond to "Sheets Byrd," but almost never for a woman. Diane Feinstein and Nancy Pelosi aren't fair comparison; they both have all-but guaranteed seats. In a competitive race, I can't think of one name, ( but if there are, I'm sure Freepers will remind me) Unless, of course, she plans to re-image herself as a latter-day Golda Meir
2. Does she want to spend the next FOUR years running around the country, raising money, and attending a slew of of dinners and events. It's hard, it takes a toll, and she may not want to pay the price.
3. But what really gives me pause is that we have no idea how the mess in Benghazi will play out. Obviously, it represents at BEST a major screw-up in the State Dept, and Hillary's hands likely are not clean in this, and she may not be able to distance herself from it. This story will have legs, especially with a new Republican Administration turning over all the rocks.
The combination of all three factors, plus of course, the ( dare I say it?) "blow-back" from the eagerly awaited Monica Lewinsky "blow-by-blow" ( sorry, couldn't resist it) tell-all) may be enough for Hillary to finally say "no mas."
So let's assume that she decides not to run. And this is where is gets very, very interesting, and will be the most fascinating, and important political story of the next two years.
If Mitt loses, the GOP has a veritable baker's dozen of fresh, energetic, photogenic, conservative possibilities for 2016. You can no doubt name them yourself.
However, if Hillary doesn't run, who do the Dems have?
Joe Biden, Martin O'Malley, Amy Klobuchar, Xavier Bacera, Deval Patrick, Michael Bennet, Mark Warner, Andrew Cuomo....Michelle Obama (you just know somebody's gonna toss that one around) Good luck with any of those...and believe me, it was a stretch to come up with those names. Ask yourself...WHO?????
The Democrat bench is incredibly thin, if non-existent.
And there's one key reason why it is very hard to imagine ANY of the above winning the WH.
Democrat electoral strength is concentrated in a small number of very blue states. 20 states at present have Democrat governors ( and the number may well be less than that after next month) To win office...House, Senate, or state capitol, in any of these blue states requires a candidate who advocates a very liberal agenda; and that makes it near impossible for any of those Democrats above to win a national race.
The political center of the country is to the right, and all of these Democrats are left-leaning. And when one considers that to win the Democrat nomination in a contested primary season, one has to run hard left to energize their base; well, let's just say it doesn't look to good for the donkey.
So, looking and leaning forward, the Democrats, and MSNBC have a really big problem.
How BIG???..well, let's just say that Bobby Valentine has a better chance of getting a manager's job than the Democrats have of winning the WH if Hillary finally packs it in.
Hillary is going to be so tainted by the State Dept. debacle in Libya that she might as well start picking out drapes for an apartment in NYC NOW ‘cause she’s done.
I thought they had decided to run one of those two Marxist “rising stars” in Florida whose communist mother was a co-founder of La Raza.
Look around...a Senator from the south I'd guess....
I think that the Dims gave Hillary the 2016 shot for Mr Bill to help 0.
Eh, they have to get Michelle an actual office somewhere before she runs for President - I would think they’d run her against Kirk for Illinois Senate in 2016 (though they are probably hoping Kirk has another stroke and has to resign, or dies. so there’s a special election before then)
forget Hillary. She won’t run.
Hugo Chavez may be available.
Hugo Chavez may be available.
I have been saying it for eons... Tanned rested and ready, Evan Bayh.....
Julian Castro? He is a rising star in Dem party.
obama, since the Constitution means nothing to him and at least four of the Supreme Court justices.
Sorry, m’dear...there are NO Dem senators from the South. Even money that Landrieu and Pryor retire..even if they do run, and somehow mangage to win..do you think they can get a Dem nomination..
I heard the most incredible thing on a "nonpartisan" radio show -- the guests were sure that Obama would win but "If Romney gets elected and screws up the economy we will be able to elect Obama in 2016 to fix it." (paraphrasing).
Romney screws up the economy? Obama fixes the economy?
I was shocked and dumbfounded until I remembered that a huge portion of America -- even Americans with PhD's like this guy -- get their news from the MSM solely.
We are in a heap o' trouble.. and here's Abe telling us why:
You initiated a policy to tolerate the Marxist-Alinsky radicals and let them rant; not only has it not ceased but was constantly augmented by decades of infiltration and indoctrination. You now have two Americas. In my opinion, it will not cease until a crisis shall have been reached and passed. "A house divided against itself cannot stand." I believe this government cannot endure, permanently, half statist and half free; I do not expect the house to fall; but I do expect it will cease to be divided. It will become all one thing, or all the other.
Andrew Cuomo ~ he already has some of the name recognition , has the money , and has the machine behind him to back him up .
Moreso , he has already put his hat in the ring.
Biden, Schumer, Cuomo and maybe Hillary. It should be Hillary’s for the taking but somehow I think she will pass.
However, could Bayh, as a "moderate" dem win primaries against far more liberal candidates? That's their BIG, fundamental problem..
One thing for certain is they will be liars, cheats and thieves and for a government of communism.
I agree. Hilary will be so tained by the Benghazi thing, she’ll be out in 2016. Plus she looks haggard, like she’s partied down ALL her life. And the hair!! Yegad. How ‘bout Plugs? Isn’t he in the wings? Or, yes, Plugs + Michelle? Although she’ll be spending freely in Hawaii and won’t want to work, I suspect.
He’s trying, I’ll grant you that..however, NYS fiscally is a mess...it’s gonna blow up soon..and Cuomo will get the blame.
The couple of clowns from Maryland, O’Malley and Van Holen really want it.
The key is to identify those virtual “unknowns” and quietly investigate and document their backgrounds and associations before they are in the forefront and before the info gets scrubbed.
Really looking forward to seeing this!
Hillary Clinton is an incompetent, lying, America hating boob loving boob.
I can’t believe myself.
BFLR (for a vanity!!)
Hillary will be 68 by then. She’s looking pretty tired now and I doubt she will have the stamina four years from now to run what would be a very competitive campaign. She should have stayed in the Senate where the schedule is much less grueling, if she had hoped to vie for the presidency in 2016.
Los Angeles mayor Villaragosa. Energize and lock up the latino vote.
Even the most liberal of libs wouldn’t vote for a 70 year old.
Biden will be older in 2016 than McCain was in 2008. The “he’s too old” crowd in the MSM wouldn’t want to be hypocritical.
Thanks..you are TOO kind..
Let us not forget that *nobody* ever heard of  before 2008.
O'Malley has been out there often as a surrogate for Obama on all the networks..he's smooth, polished...but too far left..but MD's taxes and spending...nationally, it won't play..
See, that's my point..what triggered the essay..any even remotely possible Dem has fatal, or near fatal flaws..they have NO bench
I think Brian Schweitzer, Governor of Montana, may have national ambitions.
Hello????...after his nominating speech for Kerry in 2004..he was an immediate, national figure...The next day they were talking about him running if Kerry lost..
Please let it be Debbie Wasserman-Schultz. She’s like nails on a chalkboard, I think even to a lot of Dems.
The Democrats have two wings - the “Kennedy wing” that produced Kerry and Obama and the “Clinton wing” that produced Bill and pretends to be more moderate.
My sense is that the Democrats tend to get more extreme whenever they are out of power and that typically means the Kennedy wing has the advantage. If so, I’d look for a younger Democrat senator, possibly Widen of Oregon. Wouldn’t shock me at all if they put a woman on the ticket but all the ones I can think of are hags.
They will run a Hispanic communist. Bet on it.
So could Oprah. I'm not kidding.
Exactly. Besides he's got an identical twin brother Tx Dem Congressman Joaquin Castro with a Harvard law degree in case Julian fizzles. If the dem electorate loves a Hussein why wouldn't they love twin Castros with an America/Texas/Alamo hating commie momma?
I’m seriously thinking John Kerry, but after that debate I’m not so sure....
ken5050~ “ Hes trying, Ill grant you that..however, NYS fiscally is a mess...its gonna blow up soon..and Cuomo will get the blame. “
Yes , there are some fiscal issues that seem to be problematic.
Union issues , government regulations , pension reform , and ever increasing taxes , are issues are fragmenting the Democrat base. However , Cuomo has the uncanny ability to bring parties together in mutual understanding and problem resolution .
Just within the last 2 weeks , it was unearthed that over $5 million dollars of taxpayer monies have been paid out in “hush money” through NYC Democrat Silver . This money was paid in regards to sexual harrassment and sexual abuse charges involving Democratic state representatives , and didn’t go through normal budgetary channels. An Investigation is pending .
What, no Kennedy to come out of the woodwork?
The nominee will be Andrew Cuomo, governor of New York. He is already positioning himself. Bank on it.
If Obama loses, whoever Bill Clinton backs will the the next candidate. The party will go crawling back to Clinton to resuscitate the party.
I wouldn’t count out Rahm Emanuel and given a choice, I believe Clinton might back RE and not Cuomo. Chicago would still be in charge, but it would be a different group of Chicago thugs.
Villagarosa will probably also be in the mix, but probably as VP material. He will probably succeed Brown as governor.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.